The FOMC cut interest rates by 25 bps at their December meeting, which was expected by the markets. Still, in an after the meeting address to the public, Fed Chair Powell provided some not-so welcomed projections for the following year. At this moment, Fed is expecting fewer rate cuts in 2025, from initially projected, with a 50 bps current baseline. This change comes from expectations of a higher inflation in 2025. The PCE indicator is expected to end next year at 2,5%, versus 2,2% previously forecasted, while its targeted 2% is expected to reach in 2027. The US Retail Sales increased in November by 0,7% for the month, above market expectation of 0,5%. Retail sales increased by 3,8% on a yearly basis. The Industrial Production was down by 0,1% in November, which was lower from market estimate of +0,3%. The IP on a yearly basis was down by -0,9%. Building Permits preliminary for November were higher by 6,1%. The GDP Growth rate final for Q3 is 3,1%, higher from market estimate of 2,8%. The PCE Prices final for Q3 were higher by 1,5% for the quarter, in line with market expectations. The PCE index was up by 0,1% in November for the month, while core PCE reached also 0,1% in November. Personal Income was up by 0,3% in November, while Personal Spending reached 0,4% for the month. The PCE index stands at 2,4% for the year, which was lower from market estimate at 2,5%. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for December was published, reaching the level of 74,0, and the five year inflation expectations of 3%. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for Germany in December was standing at 42,5, lower from market forecast of 43,1. At the same time, the same indicator for services stands better at the level of 51,0, higher from market estimate of 49,3. The Ifo Business Climate in Germany for December was 84,7, again a bit lower from estimated 85,6. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany in December exceeded market expectations with a value of 15,7, while the forecasted figure was 6,5. Inflation rate in the EuroZone, final for November, was standing at 2,2%, a bit lower from estimated 2,3%. The GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany for January is -21,3, lower from market estimate of -22,5. It was a challenging week on financial markets. The Fed projections for the year 2025 was something that the market did not expect, so the currency pair reacted in a pretty volatile way. The eurusd started the week around 1,05 level and moved all the way down to lowest weekly level at 1,035. Still, at Friday's trading session, the currency pair reverted a bit, ending the week at 1,0430. The RSI reached an oversold territory, but ended the week at the level of 40. The moving average of 50 days continues to strongly diverge from MA200 counterparty, indicating that no cross should be expected in the near term. The following week is a Holiday week on the Western markets. This means finally some less volatility, although this was a very challenging year-end. As seen during the previous week, the 1,04 support line might continue to be under pressure in the following period. Still, due to the Holiday, it should not be expected that this level is going to be breached till the year-end. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Holiday season starts from Wednesday, and no significant data is scheduled to be published. USD: Although Holiday season starts from Wednesday there will be only a few macro data published: Durable Goods Orders for November are due on December 24th.
Trading Strategy: XAUUSD (Gold) Action: Initiate a Sell position on XAUUSD at CMP 2628. Target Levels: Primary Target: 2580 Secondary Target: 2570 Rationale: This appears to be a pullback rather than a sustained move upward, offering a favorable selling opportunity. Stop-Loss (SL): Place your stop-loss above 2641-2645 for risk management.
The GBP/NZD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2.1983 2nd Support – 2.1860 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Analysis of gold price trend this week, fluctuation range - 2630-2680 "Gold investors are like gamblers - they just wear nicer suits and call their losses 'portfolio adjustments. Predicting gold prices is like predicting the weather - the weather is less often wrong!'" Williams' gold weather forecast: Theoretical basis: straight lines belong to humans, curves belong to God Obviously, the remarks of Trump and Powell are like Chinese crosstalk. They are singing a double act, Trump plays the red face and Powell plays the black face. Together, they reap the wealth of the world. God's perspective - as shown in the figure: We use the S line to symmetrically divide all trends, and we can draw a clear conclusion: The gold price around 2630 is a normal rebound, but it also means that this wave of market has been digested. Next, the gold price will move out of the new S line: The most likely fluctuation range: 2630-2680 It is obvious: 1: If the gold price falls in the future, it is likely to fully absorb funds at 2630-2680, which means that the gold price will continue to rise in the short term. 2: If the gold price rises in the future, it is likely to stabilize at 2630 and fully adjust, which means that the gold price will continue to rise in the short term. 3: If the gold price fluctuates in the future, from a macro-cycle perspective, it is likely to fluctuate in the range of 2630-2680, which means that the gold price will continue to rise in the short term. Summary of this week: Gold price adopts a low-multiple approach, macro strategy reference: BUY: 2620-2630 SL: 2600 TP: 2680 Specific operations, I will continue to follow up on ideas. If you are interested in my analysis, you can discuss it in the comment area, and I will explain, share and communicate with you one by one
GOLD is in a descending channel between trend lines. The price is moving from the support level and has already broken the trend line. The chart has formed a rising bottom and a harmonic pattern. We expect the rebound to continue if the price successfully consolidates above the 38.2% retracement level. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
One more week which was close to heart-attack for BTC traders. It was very challenging to keep the common sense, and understand such a strong sell-off of the BTC. However, books are saying that the markets are always right - so probably they were right also this time. The BTC price entered into strong correction after the FOMC meeting. It was not pleasant news that the inflation is going to persist in 2025 and that the Fed will cut “only” 50 bps, but how much it can actually impact BTC liquidity? The only explanation for developments during the week, was market overreaction, same as with equity markets. In one week, BTC reached its new ATH at $108K and a tumble toward the $92K. It was indeed a challenging week, even for BTC, which usually has a higher volatility. But it also shows fragility of market sentiment. However, on the opposite side, a strong overbought market was holding from November this year, indicating that the potential reversal might come anytime. The RSI is currently moving around the level of 50, and is not ready to take a path toward the oversold market side. The moving average of 50 days continues to strongly diverge from MA 200, without an indication that the indicator could change the course soon. Although the BTC market is the 24/7 one, still, it could be expected that the Holiday season during the week ahead might affect some calm down of the BTC price. BTC is ending the week with a target of $100K for one more time, which might occur only if the resistance line at the $ 98K is breached. On the opposite side, corrections are also possible, especially now that the RSI reached the level of 50, however, the extension of it will depend on some higher players on the market. Namely, as interest rates are not going to be cut as initially expected, borrowed money will not be so much at disposal to investors, in which sense, they will use the week ahead to wage how much more cash flow can end up in BTC in the year ahead.
Last week in the news The Fed cut interest rates by another 25 bps, but Powell`s rhetoric in an after the meeting address to the public did not make markets happy. A correction was strong and immediate. The US equity markets were hit the most, followed by the crypto market. A market correction brought the S&P 500 down to the level of 5.930. BTC reached its lowest weekly level at $ 92K, however, recovered as of the weekend to the level of $97K. The price of gold followed US Dollar volatility, dropping down to the level of $2.622. In line with Feds expectations of a 50 bps cut in 2025, the 10Y US benchmark yields jumped to the levels above the 4,5%. At a December FOMC meeting the Fed cut interest rates by another 25 bps, which was generally expected. However, markets were not at all happy to hear what followed. The FOMC projections for year 2025 showed inflation expectations to be higher from previously estimated. The PCE inflation indicator is expected to end 2025 at 2,5%, higher from previous estimation of 2,2%. The targeted 2% is expected to reach in 2027. At the same time the Fed expects the jobs market to be cooling, but the GDP forecast was not changed from the previous estimate. As the discounting rate changed, so the markets entered into correction, where US equity markets were hit the most. On a positive side for US markets is that the Bank of Japan decided to hold interest rates at 0,25% for the third time this year. Considering significant carry trade in Yen, this is positive news that markets will not suffer another shock till the end of this year. A hit for the European markets during the previous week was a slide of value of Novo Nordisk shares by 20%. This drop came after the Danish drug maker published results for a weight-loss drug that did not meet expectations in a trial. Although the drug was expected to help patients to lose 25% in weight, the trial showed efficiency of 22,7%. It seems a low difference in effect, but might make a huge difference with competition, hence, investors decided to reduce the value of Novo Nordisk. China is continuing execution of its long term goals to be the leader in the field of electric vehicles in the future period. The news published by Reuters, points to a Chinese company Nio which has introduced its new EV car model, with the aim to compete with Mercedes SMART and BMW Mini electric vehicles. Nio`s EV will have the same price as German carmakers on China's market. Germany's auto industry is already facing difficulties with car sales, where China was one of the main markets, after Europe. Crypto market cap It was a hard week on the crypto market. Unfortunately, this was also the last actively trading week for this year, before the Holiday season in the Western markets. So, what actually happened? The Fed managed to spoil Holiday fun and decided to revise its economic projections for the next year. In a fear of inflation which is expected to be persistent, the Fed is expecting to cut interest rates probably two times, in total by 50 bps. This is exactly what markets did not want to hear, considering that now the discount factor is higher, bringing evaluations into a correction. Also, it should be considered that borrowed money will be more expensive, from previous projections, which again might imply less funds for the crypto market. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 7% on a weekly basis, although the drop in one moment was more than 10%. Friday's market correction erased some of the weekly losses. Daily trading volumes were also higher, to the level of $397B on a daily basis, from $297B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $1.622B, which represents a 99% surge from the beginning of this year. Bitcoin was the one to drive the market sentiment during the previous week. However, BTC lost “only” 3,5% in value compared to the price from the end of the week before. BTC also lost $71B in its market cap. Still, when it comes to drop in value in relative terms, altcoins were the ones that lost the most during the previous week. The range goes from 10% up to 30% with some specific coins. The majority of altcoin lost somewhere around 20% on average. It could be noted that major coins lost much less in value from other altcoins. In this sense, XRP was down by 6% on a weekly basis, BNB dropped by 6,5%. Surprisingly, or not, ETH dropped by 12,5%, earning $57B from its market cap. Considering coins in circulation, the increased activity continues. Stablecoin Tether withdrew the number of coins by 0,2%. LINK had an increase in the number of coins on the market by 1,8%, while Filecoin increased its circulating coins by 0,4% this week. The majority of other altcoins had an increase by 0,1% during the week. Crypto futures market The spot market was not at all pretty during the previous week, hence, the crypto futures market could not look much better. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded lower for all maturities, in line with spot market sentiment. However, there are also some positive developments, not all looks so bad. BTC futures fell by more than 5% for all maturities. Still, on a positive side is that futures maturing from April 2025 hold the levels above the $100K. Also, December 2025 ended the week at the level of $105.710, while March 2026 was last traded at $107.990. This is a positive sign that the market still perceives BTC strong in the long run. ETH futures had a stronger drop on a weekly basis, of around 12,5% on average for all maturities. The prices of futures fell below the $ 4K levels. December 2025 was last traded at $3.721, while March 2026 closed the week at $3.790.
expecting a further collapse from price as a Zig-Zag correction. note wave A and C are always motive waves
EURCAD (2H Timeframe) Analysis Market Structure: Channel Pattern: The price is moving within a defined channel, respecting both support and resistance levels. Currently, it is near the upper boundary of the channel, signaling potential resistance. Bearish Engulfing Area: A bearish engulfing candlestick pattern has appeared near the resistance zone, indicating possible selling pressure. Forecast: Sell Opportunity: The price is positioned at the channel resistance with bearish candlestick confirmation, suggesting a potential downward move within the channel. Key Levels to Watch: Entry Zone: Near the upper boundary of the channel or at the bearish engulfing area. Risk Management: Stop Loss: Placed above the channel resistance or engulfing candle high to protect against invalidation. Take Profit Zones: Target the midline or lower boundary of the channel as potential downside levels. Market Sentiment: Bearish Outlook: Sellers are likely to dominate as long as the price remains below the resistance area, maintaining a downward channel trend.
Technical Analysis The price exhibits bearish momentum as long as it trades below 21620, targeting 21360. However, the price is expected to consolidate between 21360 and 21630 until a breakout occurs. A 4-hour candle close above 21630 will support a bullish move toward 21770 and 21900. On the other hand, if the price stabilizes below 21360, the bearish trend is likely to continue toward 20980 and 20860. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 21530 Resistance Levels: 21630, 21770, 21900 Support Levels: 21370, 21215, 21070 Trend Outlook: - Bearish Momentum: Stability below 21620 - Bullish Momentum: Stability above 21630