The stock of Innovative Industrial Properties managed to stabilize somewhat at the upper edge of our green Target Zone (coordinates: $53.48 – $16.80) but should soon initiate the next downward impulse. In the short term, we expect a final corrective movement deeper into our green Target Zone to establish the low of the overarching wave in green. Once the wave low is settled, the impulsive wave in green should take over and carry the stock beyond the resistance at $137.90.
Things are historically bad. The biggest reversal you can imagine. The economic situation has continued to decline. How are you handling this? The tariff make the headlines but why is the 10 year yield behaving this way. Maybe a flight to safety. This is crazy this nuts. I can't even believe this is happening.
My messages or posts are NOT intended as a recommendation to buy, sell securities or cryptos. Not Financial Advise! DYOR!
? Current Market Context: EURUSD is trading in a tight compression zone between 1.0935 support and 1.1000 resistance, following a sharp bullish leg from last week. Price is clearly slowing down, with smaller candles and rejection wicks near key levels — a sign of indecision, but also of an incoming breakout. ⚙️ Price Structure Overview: The pair is forming higher lows but struggling to break above the psychological barrier at 1.1000, suggesting early signs of bullish exhaustion. 1.0935 has acted as a short-term demand zone, with price reacting to it multiple times, creating a clear price floor. Buyers and sellers are now locked in a tight range — volatility is shrinking, and volume is likely building behind the scenes. ? Key Levels to Watch: ? Bullish Breakout Scenario: If EURUSD breaks and closes firmly above 1.1000, we could see bullish continuation toward: Target 1: 1.1035 – previous price reaction level. Target 2: 1.1070 – resistance from late March. A strong 1H close above 1.1000 confirms bulls are in control and may trigger stop orders above the round number. ? Bearish Rejection / Breakdown Scenario: If price fails to break above 1.1000 and breaks below 1.0935, it opens the door for a short-term correction: Target 1: 1.0900 – strong structure and psychological zone. Target 2: 1.0860 – last major higher low and liquidity pocket. A clean breakdown below 1.0935 with momentum would indicate the bulls are losing control. ⏳ Conclusion: The market is too quiet right now, and that’s never a good sign — this kind of compression usually ends in a sharp impulsive move. Whether it’s a breakout above 1.1000 or a breakdown under 1.0935, a decision is coming. This is a textbook case of “don’t predict — prepare”. Smart price action traders are watching... and waiting.
In these similar trends from the past, with equal distances, these vertical lines are based on the idea of Hawking (if I remember correctly, the name escapes me). But look at the chart, I've drawn boxes that indicate this. In these time frames, we observe both significant growth and sharp declines until the last arrow tip. If you notice, there’s growth and then it gradually slows down. My own weekly plan is to buy around levels 71, 70, and 69, but in the future, Bitcoin is likely to reach above 200,000
Chart never lies Waitinggggggggg 65-69 next buy zone for me
? Gold is trading at all-time highs, and the key question is: where's the top? In this post, I present a complete picture: from the long-term supercycle to the current structure on the hourly chart, plus a full set of macro and fundamental arguments in favor of continued growth. 1. Grand Supercycle & Supercycle https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ny8vO4cV/ I'm using the Gold Futures COMEX:GC1! chart since 1975, which gives the best long-term volume profile. According to my Elliott Wave interpretation: Waves ① and ② of the Grand Supercycle ended before the 2000s. The Supercycle wave III began in 2000. Key milestones: Wave I of the Supercycle peaked in August 2011 Wave II bottomed in December 2015 This entire period featured accumulation and reaccumulation. Since 2016, the gold market entered an expansion phase, forming Supercycle wave III. We are currently within its first cycle wave, which suggests there's still a long way to go. ? The ultimate upside is hard to predict, but the projected path on the chart points to targets in the $8,000–12,000 zone. 2. The Cycle Wave Since 2016: Extended Fifth https://www.tradingview.com/x/2ipkVrUx/ Starting from 2016, we see a classic 1–2–3–4–5 impulse structure, with the fifth wave showing clear extension — a trait commonly seen in commodity markets. ? Robert Prechter pointed out that in traditional stock markets, it’s usually Wave 3 that gets extended — driven by greed and early confidence in the trend. But in commodity markets like gold, it’s often Wave 5 that gets extended. This is because traders hesitate for a long time and only enter the market in panic, typically during crises, inflationary spikes, or physical shortages. ? The primary motivation here is fear, capital preservation, and flight from risk — not profit-seeking. That’s why gold often produces vertical rallies at the end of a trend, within the fifth wave. ? In this case, OANDA:XAUUSD CAPITALCOM:GOLD TVC:GOLD AMEX:GLD becomes a safe-haven of last resort in a world of rising fiat uncertainty. 3. Cup and Handle: A Textbook Bullish Pattern https://www.tradingview.com/x/qt8FkOUU/ The weekly chart shows a 10-year Cup and Handle pattern (2011–2023). The breakout above the neckline has occurred, projecting a classic target in the $3500–3600 range. 4. 2022–2025 Impulse: More to Come https://www.tradingview.com/x/5Y8rs1pU/ Gold has been in a strong impulsive uptrend since 2022. This move already looks extended, but there is room for more, especially given the structure of subwaves. In the near term (1–2 months), a flat correction in wave (iv) is likely before gold rallies to a new all-time high, potentially forming wave ③ around $3400–3600. After that, expect a period of distribution and range-bound price action. 5. Hourly Chart: Fifth Wave Not Done Yet https://www.tradingview.com/x/Sbp4GGYs/ https://www.tradingview.com/x/DhP5pYgo/ On the H1 chart, gold has bounced from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and key support. We are likely still inside wave (iv), with a potential final push in wave (v) ahead. Key levels: Support: $2920–2950 Resistance: $3250–3300 ? A breakout above resistance could trigger a rapid rally. Macro and Fundamental Drivers ? Falling Real Rates in the US 10Y yields are near 4.3%, while CPI inflation remains above 3.2%. This creates a negative real interest rate, historically a strong tailwind for gold. ? Record Central Bank Buying 2023 marked the second consecutive record year for central bank gold purchases. China, India, Turkey, and Singapore are leading the charge. This shift reflects a move away from the USD amid geopolitical tensions. ? Fiat System Stress Concerns over US commercial debt, banking instability, and growing systemic risk have made gold a preferred store of value for both retail and institutional investors. ? Physical Delivery Demand There is growing pressure on the LBMA to deliver physical gold, not just paper claims. Some sovereign and institutional players are demanding real metal delivery. This stresses London vaults and could drive prices higher in a short squeeze scenario. ? US Debt Burden Interest on US debt is expected to surpass $1 trillion in 2024 — a historic high. This challenges the USD’s reserve status and may increase long-term demand for gold. Where Can Gold Go? ? We are witnessing a rare alignment of: ✅ Technical structure ✅ Elliott Wave cycles ✅ Macro tailwinds ✅ Supply stress in physical gold ? $3400–3600 is just the beginning. Consolidation may follow, but over the next few years, gold could target $5000 and beyond as this Supercycle wave unfolds.
Dropped to the bottom of consistent channel and held through Tariffs and FUD thus far this week.. Can it hold??? EXTREMELY BULLISH on this company paired w Netflix. TKO = Driving force of live events for the foreseeable future for Netflix. NFLX will get NFL games every now and then as we have seen.. But week to week WWE will continue to regain traction and bring back older fans as this new era of no holds bar tv kicks off for them. UFC #s are way down on ESPN due to lack of "hype" talent @ this point. Numbers falling off, ESPN deal coming to an end, Clear cut next home for UFC is Netflix. They will go similar route as WWE. New shows, exclusive content commercial breaks during live events. All things that will drive up revenue again for UFC and add to TKO's growth. VERY BULLISH on TKO.
Tesla's price action in 2024 has shown signs of weakness, casting doubt on the strength of its long-term upward trend. After a sharp decline from its peak, the stock is now at a critical juncture where key levels and momentum are in play. Here’s an in-depth look: Potential Bounce at Key Support: Tesla is currently heading toward the 180/140 support zone, which could act as a pivotal point for a potential rebound. If the stock manages to hold above these levels, it could set the stage for a recovery move toward the 300 resistance zone. The importance of this support level cannot be overstated, as a failure to hold could lead to further downside. Weak Momentum: Despite attempts at upward movement, Tesla's long-term bullish trend has significantly weakened due to a lack of momentum in 2024. The stock is struggling to build on past gains, and this lack of follow-through is a warning sign for those expecting continued growth. Momentum is a critical factor in maintaining an uptrend, and without it, the path of least resistance may be down. Breaking Below Key Levels: A significant development is the breakdown below the 300 level, a key psychological and technical level for Tesla. This breach signals a shift in market sentiment, and until the price can reclaim this level, the bearish pressure is likely to persist. Reversals from such levels often require strong confirmation, which has not yet materialized for Tesla. Trading Below Moving Averages: Tesla is now trading below both its 200-day and 20-day moving averages, further confirming the weakness in the trend. These moving averages act as important indicators of market sentiment and trend direction. Being below these averages suggests that momentum is against the stock, and the risk of further declines remains high unless a significant reversal occurs. 50% Decline from Peak: Since reaching its peak at 488.54, Tesla has seen a 50% decline, and there are no clear signs of a reversal in the short term. This prolonged decline suggests that the bearish trend is still in control, and the stock must show stronger signs of recovery before a sustainable upward move can be expected. Key Takeaway: Tesla’s current technical setup does not signal a clear shift to the upside. If the price continues to fall, the 180/140 support zone could become a crucial turning point for a potential trend reversal. However, the overall trend remains weak, and recent upward swings have lacked the strength needed to confirm a shift. In the short term, more evidence is needed before calling for a sustained move higher.
I believe we are witnessing the early stages of a 2008-style crash, though this one will unfold more swiftly and catch many by surprise. The crash will likely test the COVID-era lows, and once the panic subsides, a recovery toward new highs will follow. FUNDAMENTAL REASONS After the COVID-crash recovery, the market became significantly overbought, and a pullback was inevitable—such is the nature of markets. Trump’s tariffs have provided a convenient excuse for profit-taking. While the tariffs didn’t directly cause the crash, they served as a much-needed catalyst. What might have been a typical bull market pullback, however, could escalate into full-blown panic. Why? Index funds. For the past decade, there has been near-religious advocacy for investing solely in low-cost index funds. This extraordinary delusion has overtaken investors’ collective consciousness—the belief that no one can beat the S&P 500, nor should they try. The most rational choice, then, becomes focusing on your career or business and parking your money in index funds. After all, if the game can’t be beaten, why bother playing? This logic resonates with rational index fund buyers—many of whom lack market experience and have never been tested in the trenches of a downturn. They assume they’re in it for the long haul, unbothered by pullbacks, confident they can hold through volatility. It’s a sound and logical stance. But will they hold? It’s easy to stay committed when the market is rising. When losses mount, however, the limbic system overrides rational thought, thrusting you into survival mode. You begin calculating how many years of work you’ve “lost,” lamenting that you could have bought a house if you’d sold at the peak, or watching your children’s college fund evaporate. Sleepless nights follow, compounded by a barrage of negative news. Eventually, exhaustion sets in, and in a desperate bid to salvage what remains, you hit the sell button. With so many unsophisticated investors—who have never endured a true market panic—holding portfolios dominated by index funds, a negative feedback loop emerges. The further the market falls, the more people question their strategy and sell. This cycle intensifies until the panic is overdone, weak hands are shaken out, and the market stabilizes. It’s a tale as old as markets themselves, though today’s index fund evangelists have yet to experience it firsthand. TECHNICAL REASONS On the monthly chart, a clear and potent triple RSI divergence stands out. This indicates the market is severely overbought and has been struggling to make new highs. While technical analysis rarely delivers definitive signals and can often be ambiguous, a triple RSI divergence on a monthly chart is as strong as it gets. Monthly charts of high-market-cap indices are immune to manipulation and short-term noise—it would take an infinite amount of capital to artificially “draw” such a pattern. The 2021-2022 pullback was an Elliott Wave impulsive wave down (a Leading Diagonal). In Elliott Wave Theory, impulsive waves mark either the final leg of a correction or the first wave of a new trend. A Leading Diagonal almost always signals the latter—meaning another impulsive wave in the same direction is likely to follow. The 2022-2025 bull market, meanwhile, has proven to be an ABC corrective wave up within the broader trend. This suggests the bull run wasn’t a continuation of the prior uptrend but rather an extended correction that pushed to new highs. Thus, the leading diagonal down foreshadows another impulsive wave lower, and the corrective wave up confirms this trajectory. Since March 2025, the market has entered free-fall mode—precisely what one would expect following an upward corrective wave. This sets the stage for a high-probability Elliott Wave Expanding Flat pattern. What’s unfolding now is an impulsive wave down that should, at minimum, retest the 2022 low. If panic takes hold, however, the decline won’t find a floor until it hits a major support level—namely, the 200-month moving average (MA200 Monthly), which sits precisely at the COVID bottom. Should that occur, the magnitude of the drop would rival the 2008 crash.