Hello traders! What’s your take—should we buy or sell gold? Gold has surged dramatically, breaking through key resistance levels and hitting historic highs. The breakout above $2,954 has fueled strong bullish momentum, propelling prices close to the psychological barrier of $3,000, a key level closely watched by investors. This impressive rally is largely driven by a weakening US dollar and heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty. The confirmed breakout suggests further upside potential, with buyers firmly in control and maintaining upward pressure. However, some short-term consolidation is expected around current levels, with a possible pullback to retest support near $2,954 before another leg higher. If the bullish trend persists, gold could extend gains toward $3,030 in the coming sessions. As long as gold holds above its breakout zone, the uptrend remains intact. Keep an eye on upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments for further confirmation of this record-breaking movement. Wishing you all a successful trading day!
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After gold broke a new high overnight, it further increased to around 2990, and the daily line finally closed with a big bald sun. The previous sideways squat gave the bulls sufficient power, strong kinetic energy and fast speed, and the closing price was high at the end of the day, indicating that the strong trend will continue, and there is still room for further upward movement. In the 4H cycle, after breaking through the previous high pressure of 2956, the inertia of rushing up caused the indicators to deviate slightly. In the white market, we will first look at the correction space for the decline, and then look at further upward movement after the correction. The top and bottom support below is around 2956, and the 1H cycle support is at 2967. In terms of operation, we will continue to treat it as a long-term idea, and then gradually look at the 3000 mark on the top. Do not blindly guess the top and empty. Operation suggestion: Buy gold near 2967-68, stop loss at 2960, look at 2981, 3000!
The Standard & Poor's Index is likely near the bottom of its downtrend. Considering the interest rate decision next week, it is preparing to buy. The other areas are potential reversal zones, but the closest is the green zone. https://www.tradingview.com/x/tYxjOvRH/
Not suggested for trading Good volume Aim for 4 or 5 percent Don't be greedy.
30M just gave a clean CHoCH, breaking a major LH, signaling bullish intent—at least for now. I’m waiting for inducement to be taken before price taps into my order block, lining up with the 4H move. The goal? Ride price up into 4H supply, then look for the sell-off from mitigation. Letting price show its hand first. Bless Trading!
$5.00 looked so close , but now so far! As predicted the market came to its senses and reverted back to some fundamental pricing this week. Although one tweet from Trump and who knows? I better finish this post and get it posted before he strikes again, or I might be at the drawing board before you know it. For the first time in several months, NG prices were not matching weather trends. However, that changed over the past few days as prices plunged as weather trends and the models printed warmer. NG prices finally reacted sharply lower on fundamental news and lack of Trump-o-nomics. The run up in prices has aided in resetting of fundamental levels of pricing. The upper price for the 2025 NG season has been reset close to the 5000 level, more importantly, the long term double top formation in the 4700-4730 range that has been in place since early in September 2022 held and continues to serve as important resistance for the prompt month. One potential technical implication from the quick price surge late Sunday is it has effectively shifted Fibonacci Retracement levels higher. Key 38.2% retracement now exists at 3984, up from 3875, effectively making $4.00 a bit of a stronger support level. So too does the middle of the current 20 day-Bollinger Band currently sitting at 4128. Yesterday was the first fall below the middle band (20D SMA) since February 7th and there has not been an open and close day below it since January 31st. As for lower technical levels I am watching, the channel trend at 3908, the swing low at 3742, the 50% retracement level at 3702, and the 50D SMA at 3644. Again, I believe we are in an overall bullish pattern. But I will be looking for these support levels for the turn around in price and the beginning of a move higher. I have been discussing my thoughts for the reasons for the move higher for a bit now. But I suggest caution with the Trump uncertainty in the news. The next round of tariffs come into play the first week of April, and with Ukraine and Russia hammering out a peace deal, I am keeping my investing window close. I am only looking week to week for the time being and suggest you do also. We learned this past weekend that fundamentals will be Trumped by Trump every time. For the remainder of the week, I am playing this market to the short side. I did exit my puts last night when the price dropped below 4000. I waited until the report and entered another block of puts. On a purely, short term fundamental basis, I do not see any reason for the market to react and pressure prices higher. I will not plan on holding any large positions over the weekend, due to the geopolitical and tariff uncertainty. But I will take a small strangle, which I will post before the end of the day tomorrow. I do see some encouraging signs of the coming colder shift in the pattern. Europe is now forecasting colder weather for the next 10 days. A good telegraph for North America. The SSW is finally beginning to show its signs and I believe by early next week the weather models will begin to see it also. The major long-range teleconnections, the AO/NAO/EPO, are modeling colder day 10-40. It is now just a matter of wait and see. The good thing about the recent run up in price is that we are not going to need bitter cold to start the price to rise. We are just going to need below average temps to keep the shoulder season as short as possible. This will keep the price in a bid mode to refill storage. The other factor about past SSW events in the month of March, is that the tend to have very warm Mays, which will put a jump on the US cooling season. LNG exports continue to show historic production. This week, in Houston, TX, CERA Energy Week conference was held. Industry majors continue to reinforce the bullish nature of the LNG, data center buildouts, and increase in power generation in the US. The main take away from the conference is the one thing that Trump is doing for the NG industry, is cutting red tape. More that 20 BCF of LNG export capacity was approved by the FERC this week, with expedited permitting. The once dead Continental Pipeline is in talks to restart permitting, and most of the steel needed for the construction of said projects have been pre bid, with pre tariff pricing already in place. The demand is there, and the gas is in the ground. There is other bullish issue such and storage continuing to drop. The shut down of 8 GW of coal plants this summer the now talked about warm summer being forecasted. The U.S. Energy Information Administration researchers calculated U.S. natural gas rigs decreased by 32%, roughly 50 rigs, between 2022 and 2024. The majority of that reduction occurred in the Haynesville Shale and Appalachia Basin, which have helped supply the growing demand for feed gas from Gulf Coast LNG terminals during the same period. Both regions declined by a combined 21 rigs last year as natural gas prices continued to crater amid surging oversupply and the pull of LNG demand from Europe. So, for the immediate future, keep an eye on those lower support levels. Pricing will begin to move higher sooner rather than later. May is not too far off, and the cooling season is about to begin soon in the southern US. Keep it Burning!
Bitocin managed to react again by bouncing off the 78,000 barrier and settled above it. Price action is now trying to gather upward momentum. If the crypto manages to rise and rest above 84,000, the bullish move may be towards the 93,000 and 95,000 resistance barriers. Failure to rise and stabilise above 84,000 may lead to a continuation of the bearish move.
Oh yeah! I think it's time to start talking about the possibility and likelihood of the reality we are seeing. I enjoy doing more educational and analytical posts, and my goal this year was to do more of them again—so here we go, round two of 2025! Let’s Talk About the Market It's selling, in case you hadn’t noticed. Some may say “correction,” but I say tomato, tom-ah-to. The reality is that a bear market is, at its core, a correction. Historically, bear markets haven’t just started for no reason. It’s not like the S&P 500 wakes up one day and has this conversation with the NASDAQ: S&P: Yo, Nazzy. NAZ: What? S&P: Let’s do something new. NAZ: What? S&P: Let’s tank and shake the whole world. You up for it? NAZ: I don’t... I don’t know, I don’t think... S&P: Nah, nah, trust me. It’ll be funny. Let’s ruin some 401(k)s and give the economy a real shock. It’ll be hilarious! You in? NAZ: I... I don’t... fine, I guess. ? Yeah, no. The reality is that bear markets result from multiple factors, such as: Bubbles Over-exuberance Changing economic conditions Changing geopolitical factors Many other interconnected influences Every bear market in the long history of the S&P has been the result of several of these factors combined. No bear market ever materialized out of thin air. While some crashes have occurred for questionable reasons—such as Black Monday in the 1980s—true bear markets typically result from a prolonged accumulation of unsustainable growth. This could be due to: Outpricing the average investor (which the S&P currently does). Being fueled by speculative innovation (we have AI hype today, just as the ‘90s had dot-com hype). Becoming disproportionately large compared to the actual monetary supply in which it operates (as of 2025, the S&P 500 is valued higher than the U.S. money supply—more on that later). So, as you can see, we have some basis for a bear market thesis here. Blame Trump? I see a lot of people blaming Trump, so let me preface this—I don’t support him, but I’m not about to make this a politically fueled post because that would distract from the real issue at hand. The reality is that he’s not the root cause of the market’s decline. These structural factors existed pre-Trump and will exist post-Trump once this correction is complete. However, while he may not be the root cause, he is certainly throwing fuel on the fire. His obsession with tariffs, economic instability, and personal financial gains (cough crypto cough) has arguably added to the growing lack of confidence in the market. Investors and hedge funds aren’t dumb—when Warren Buffett and other major firms pulled out before the decline started, that should have been the first warning sign. The market was already reaching astronomically high valuations. However, recovery may take longer when the leader of the economy is actively contributing to instability rather than fostering confidence. The Crypto Situation—A Warning Sign What Trump did with crypto raises serious concerns. If crypto can be manipulated for personal gain, who’s to say the NYSE itself won’t be next? Elon Musk and others have already gotten away with market manipulation, setting a dangerous precedent of complacency from the SEC. In my opinion, investor confidence should have eroded long ago. To put numbers behind this sentiment, the American Association of Individual Investors conducts a weekly survey on investor sentiment. As of March 13, 2025, results show: Only 19% of investors are bullish 60% are bearish This marks the 4th consecutive week of majority bearish sentiment Complex Market Dynamics There’s a lot happening right now that complicates the situation. Months ago, I posted a video about the US Money Supply vs. the S&P 500, available here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/Lc2FvDNw-SPX-Money-Money-and-Money-Supply/ In this video, I discuss how overextended the market is relative to the US money supply. The only way to sustain current valuations would be to drastically increase the money supply. But here’s the problem: ? Increasing the money supply = higher inflation With the US already narrowly avoiding recessions since 2022, increasing the money supply further would exacerbate inflation, leading to even greater economic instability. Check out this chart I plotted, showing US Money Supply (green) vs. Inflation (red): https://www.tradingview.com/x/3Uyptezr/ As you can see, whenever the money supply increases, inflation follows. Tariffs & The Economy Many people assume that tariffs increase the money supply—but that’s not how it works. The USA is not self-sufficient (no country is), and it still relies on imports. Who actually pays the tariff? Not the foreign country—the domestic consumers do. For example, when an American buys a product made in China, they pay the tariff cost, which is then sent back to China. It’s a net-zero game that hurts both economies without providing any real financial advantage. Let’s Get Mathy ? Now, let’s bring in the math. In my last money supply video, I used visual scaling and qualitative comparison. But for a rigorous analysis, we need to: Assess cointegration Ensure stationarity Develop a cointegrated pair regression If the US Money Supply and the S&P 500 are cointegrated and stationary, we can use the money supply to predict the S&P’s valuation. And guess what? They are. Using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (for stationarity) and the Johansen Cointegration Test, we get positive results: https://www.tradingview.com/x/vMdsjj5P/ This confirms a strong relationship between US Money Supply & the S&P 500 across multiple cointegrated vectors. The Cointegration Equation Running a cointegration regression in R, we get this equation: ? y = 2.046e-10x - 1.492e+02 Where X = current money supply and Y = expected S&P 500 valuation. Plugging in today’s money supply gives us an expected S&P value of 4,262.571. Accounting for error range (σ = 294.8): Upper Bound: 4,557.371 Lower Bound: 3,967.771 I’ve incorporated this equation into PineScript to show you here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Au9IGG8p/ Will the S&P Correct to the Money Supply? Not necessarily. Money supply is dynamic, and as it increases, so will the expected S&P valuation. This relationship will persist until equilibrium is restored. We can see this in historical data: https://www.tradingview.com/x/t25XLQna/ The Verdict This is a much-needed correction—or bear market, call it what you want. The S&P’s growth rate was unsustainable, especially in relation to: The US Money Supply Speculative AI-driven hype Economic & geopolitical instability Whether the S&P falls all the way to equilibrium or they meet somewhere in the middle remains to be seen. But one way or another—equilibrium will be restored. This post is already long enough, so I’ll leave it at that! Thanks for reading, and as always—safe trades! ?
BTC if forming a good bull form. If it can hold above 81000 a good profit can be taken from 84000. Trade safely.