+ Tariff risks (USD as a safe haven) + Seasonality + USD COT
Historically, the average drop after a conformed trend break through my 1D chart EMA resulted in a 20% drop in price. We could see that here. TONUSDT has been is a nice uptrend and performing well, but people do take profits so when so air comes out, sometimes in adds selling pressure I think, and then we get the crowd that panics. Bingo! The institutional players and market makers will try to get filled long again and as a byproduct liquidate more people. Hence the larger drops when they happen. Enjoy!
Will markets suffer a 30% drop? The announcement of new U.S. tariffs caused a surprising wave of selling in financial markets, sparing no sector. The consequences of this decision have been shaken, and the market is now in a state of uncertainty. The uncertainty has also affected monetary policy expectations, with investors now predicting more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This is evident from the collapse in the probability of the “no cut” scenario according to the CME Fed Watch Tool. To make matters worse, the recent ISM data showed a sharp decline in new orders, a worrisome sign for future economic growth. In addition, only 47 percent of companies listed in the S&P 500 are priced above their 200-day moving average, a level that in the past has been associated with average declines of 7.3 percent over the next 12 months. However, is it really justified to be so concerned? A major cause of the panic is the Atlanta Fed's forecast, which significantly revised downward its estimated growth for the current quarter. According to the GDPNow model, the annual increase went from +2.3 percent to -2.8 percent in just a few days. This dramatic revision has led many analysts to speak of a “Trumpcession,” pointing to a possible risk of recession under a new Trump administration. It is important to note that the Atlanta Fed's forecast is an exception to most current estimates. For example, the New York Fed's Nowcast model still forecasts annual growth of +2.9 percent in the first quarter, in line with previous expectations. This suggests that the sharp drop in the forecast could be influenced by temporary factors or specific calculation methods. Not long ago, the same model predicted +4.0% growth. Stock markets are in turmoil because of growing economic concerns. Technology stocks, which have been driving the stock market upward for years, are now among the main losers, with companies such as Nvidia and Tesla posting negative performances. The aviation sector is also coming under pressure, with companies such as Delta Airlines seeing sharp declines in profits due to economic uncertainty. The financial sector is under particular pressure as banks increase their reserves for potential loan losses, a sign that credit quality may deteriorate in the coming quarters. The volatility futures market is showing signs of concern as contracts maturing in March are more expensive than eight-month contracts. This “backwardation” has been present for four consecutive sessions and in the past has predicted long periods of impending turmoil. Historical facts have shown that when volatility futures remain in backwardation for more than five days, the market suffered further losses in the following month with an average of 4.5 percent. Hedge funds are adapting to the current economic situation and reducing their exposure to equities. Instead, they are focusing their investments on safer assets such as U.S. government bonds, highlighting strong pessimism among institutional investors. Goldman Sachs statistics also reflect this trend, with a reduction in exposure to stocks similar to that seen during the market crash in 2020. The history of financial markets has taught us that phases of volatility and panic are common and cyclical. Often, sudden fluctuations in economic expectations are driven by emotions rather than a rational response to hard data. It is important to note that the tariffs have not yet taken effect, so it is premature to draw firm conclusions about their impact on markets. My prediction is that the tariff war will not materialize and the United States will soon come to an agreement. In addition, it seems increasingly likely that the conflict in Ukraine will end soon and the FED's interest rates will fall, which will have a positive effect on the market in the next quarter. I predict that the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Bitcoin will recover at least half of their losses in the coming weeks.
? Market Overview: The NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) just tested a strong demand zone (18,900 - 18,950) and is showing signs of a potential reversal. Can buyers push the price higher, or will bears take control? ? Key Resistance Levels: 19,568 | 20,160 ? Current Price: 18,977 ? Key Support Levels: 18,896 (demand zone) ? Price Action Breakdown: 1️⃣ Sharp Drop into Demand Zone Price recently fell from 19,568 after failing to break higher. Buyers are now defending the 18,900 support zone, which has historically held strong. 2️⃣ Bullish Reversal Setup? If the price holds above 18,900, we could see a bullish rally toward 19,568. A breakout above 19,568 may open the way for 20,160+. 3️⃣ Bearish Breakdown Risk If the price drops below 18,896, expect further downside towards 18,600 - 18,500. Sellers would regain control, confirming a bearish continuation. ? Trading Plan: ? Bullish Case: ? Look for bullish confirmation in the 18,900 - 18,950 zone. ? A strong bounce could target 19,568, then 20,160. ? Bearish Case: ? If price fails to hold 18,896, a short setup targeting 18,600 - 18,500 is possible. ? Wait for a clean break & retest before shorting. ? Will NAS100 bounce back from this demand zone, or will sellers dominate? Drop your thoughts in the comments! ? ? Like & Follow for more trade insights! ? #NASDAQ100 #TechStocks #Trading #StockMarket #SupplyAndDemand #Forex #PriceAction
Good Morning, Hope all is well. BTC we can see that it was rejected off the last support. Trend is showing lower lows in the interim. I will re asses throughout the week to see if we can get a nice breakout pattern to complete a swing trade. Thanks
This chart represents a Gold (XAU/USD) 30-minute timeframe analysis from TradingView. Here are the key takeaways: Technical Indicators & Levels Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) 200 EMA (Blue Line): 3,110.97 – A long-term trend indicator. 30 EMA (Red Line): 3,134.65 – A short-term trend indicator. Key Levels Resistance Point: Around 3,136.56. Support Zone (Stop Loss Level): 3,103.16. Target Point: 3,167.44, indicating a potential 1.62% upside. Potential Trade Setup Scenario 1 (Bullish Case): If price breaks above resistance (3,136.56) and holds, the next target is 3,167.44. A bullish breakout could indicate further momentum. Scenario 2 (Bearish Case): If price fails to break resistance and drops, it could test the support zone around 3,103.16. A break below this level might lead to further downside. Pattern Analysis: The chart suggests a potential retest of resistance before a breakout. A possible accumulation phase before a strong move. Conclusion Bullish above 3,136.56, targeting 3,167.44. Bearish below 3,103.16, watching for downside risk. The 200 EMA (3,110.97) could act as dynamic support.
~+ EU CPI Beat - EUR COT - Seasonality - Tariffs risks
? Market Overview: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) has dropped into a strong demand zone (41,200 - 41,350), which has historically acted as a major support area. Will buyers step in for a rebound, or will we see further decline? ? Key Resistance Levels: 41,932 | 42,605 ? Current Price: 41,234 ? Key Support Levels: 41,347 (demand zone) | 41,200 ? Recent Price Action: 1️⃣ Strong Sell-Off into Demand Zone: After testing resistance at 41,932, US30 faced heavy selling pressure. Price has now entered a high-volume support area (41,200 - 41,350). 2️⃣ Potential Reversal Setup: If buyers hold this zone, we could see a bullish push back to 41,932 (first resistance). A breakout above 41,932 could open the door for a move to 42,600+. 3️⃣ Breakdown Scenario: If 41,200 breaks, expect further downside towards 40,800 - 40,500. This would confirm a bearish continuation pattern. ? Trade Plan: ? Bullish Setup: ? Look for bullish confirmation in the 41,200 - 41,350 zone. ? A strong bounce could provide an entry targeting 41,932 and 42,600. ? Bearish Setup: ? If price fails to hold 41,200, a short opportunity exists targeting 40,800 - 40,500. ? Wait for a clean break and retest of 41,200 before shorting. ? Will US30 bounce back from this demand zone, or will we see further drops? Comment your thoughts below! ? ? Like & Follow for more trade ideas! ? #US30 #DOWJONES #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #DayTrading #Forex #SupplyAndDemand
GOLD TRADING PLAN – After Breaking ATH & Sharp Correction ? Former U.S. President Donald Trump has officially announced a comprehensive global tariff policy, targeting multiple countries and regions. This sparked: ? A major sell-off in risk assets ? A sharp weakening in the U.S. Dollar ? A strong rally in gold, reaching a new All-Time High (ATH) at 3167 as a preferred safe-haven asset ? Latest Market Reaction – Gold Corrects from ATH After a strong bullish breakout, gold is now pulling back from its peak, driven by profit-taking and investor caution ahead of key economic data — including the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Despite the short-term pullback, the overall trend remains bullish on higher timeframes. ? Technical Overview Yesterday, we identified and traded a symmetrical triangle pattern, which broke out sharply as expected. Now, price is retesting previous breakout zones — where new long opportunities may form. ? Focus on BUY setups during the Asian & EU sessions, and be cautious during the U.S. session due to expected volatility. ? Key Technical Levels ? Resistance Levels: 3167 (ATH) – 3175 – 3185 – 3198 – 3206 ? (These are psychological levels & Fibonacci extensions. Wait for clear candle confirmation before entering.) ? Support Levels: 3140 – 3132 – 3120 – 3112 – 3106 – 3100 ? TRADE PLAN ? BUY ZONE: 3112 – 3110 ? Stop Loss: 3106 ? Take Profits: 3116 – 3120 – 3124 – 3128 – 3132 – 3136 – 3140 ? SELL ZONE: 3167 – 3169 ? Stop Loss: 3173 ? Take Profits: 3162 – 3158 – 3154 – 3150 ⚠️ Final Notes ? The uptrend is still in play — no need to FOMO sell near the highs. ⏳ Be patient, wait for price to react at key support/resistance zones. ? Avoid overtrading or rushing into trades — tariff news has major global impact. ? Stay sharp ahead of Friday’s NFP release — we'll reassess trend direction after the data. ✅ Stick to your risk management: follow your TP/SL strictly. Wishing you safe & profitable trades! ??
Good Morning, Hope all is well. Market still reacting to the uncertainty of the news. Yesterday was very volatile and skipped back and forth throughout the day. Currently XRP is looking for support, it is still bearish but is developing a bullish short term trend change. I will keep you posted. Thanks