German 40 closed at low on Friday but going up to fill the gap. Also Hedge funds are selling while commericials buying. Time to buy for me. I dont use price action,because i dont believe in it.Instead I use my commercial analysis to buy and sell
Another Friday was in the spotlight of market participants, as PCE data for February were set for a release. The PCE price Index was up by 0,3% for the month and 2,5% on a yearly basis. Core PCE remains elevated at the level of 0,4% for February and 2,8% compared to the previous year. The US GDP Growth Rate final for Q4 was standing at 2,4% for the quarter, a bit higher from market consensus of 2,3%. The Durable Goods orders surged by 0,9% in February, significantly surpassing market estimate of -1,2%. The CB Consumer Confidence in March was at the level of 92,9, a bit lower from forecasted 94,4. The New Home Sales were higher in February by 1,8% on a monthly basis, which was higher from estimated 0,5% for February. Pending Home Sales were higher by 2% in February, bringing the indicator to the level of -3,6% on a yearly basis. The S&P Global Composite PMI flash for March was standing at 53,5, bit higher from forecasted 51,5. The weekend brought data for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final for March, reaching the level of 57,0, below the previous post of 64,0, but in line with market estimates. The highest surprise came from inflation expectations for this year, which reached the level of 5%, from 4,3% posted previously. The five year inflation expectations were also higher, standing at the level of 4,1%, from 3,5% posted previously. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for March in Germany was standing at 48,3 a bit higher from market consensus of 47. The same indicator for the Euro Zone was at the level of 48,7, again slightly higher from market estimate of 48,2. The Ifo Business climate in March in Germany was at the level of 86,7, in line with market expectations. The GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany in April was at the level of -24,5, higher from market estimate of -23. The Unemployment rate in Germany in March was increased to the level of 6,3% from previous 6,2%. During the first half of the week, the market favoured the US Dollar. However, the post of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data final for March and significantly increased inflation expectations from US consumers, were the trigger for the weakening of the USD. The currency pair started the previous week at the level of 1,850, moved toward the lowest weekly level at 1,0740, and then reverted back, ending the week at 1,0827. It was sort of a weekly rollercoaster caused by market high sensitivity to inflation data. The RSI modestly reached the level of 54, but there is still no indication that the market is eyeing the oversold market side at this moment. The MA50 continues to strongly converge toward the MA200, decreasing the distance between two lines. There is some indication of a potential cross in the coming period, but it might occur within the next several weeks. The eurusd tested for one more time the significant level of 1,08, where it is ending the week. Considering high market uncertainty related to both trade tariffs and inflation expectations, some volatility might continue at the start of the week ahead around this level. For one more week, the week-end should be especially closely watched, as NFP data are set for a release, as well as unemployment data for March. In this sense, the volatility is again guaranteed during the week ahead. Based on current charts, there is some probability for the currency pair to head toward the 1,10, next resistance line. In case that the market heads toward the downside, then 1,07 might be shortly a target. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Retail sales in February in Germany, preliminary Inflation rate in Germany in March, Inflation rate flash for March in the EuroZone, USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI for March, JOTLs Jobs Opening in February, ISM Services PMI in March, Non-farm Payrolls in March, Unemployment rate in March, Fed Chair Powell speech.
For one more week investors were not happy with developments over trade tariffs and inflation expectations. The US equity markets finished the week in red, and BTC was just following the general sentiment. During the first half of the week, BTC was trying to reach higher grounds, above the $ 88K, however, the new stories regarding tariffs and especially Friday's University of Michigan inflation expectation sentiment of US consumers, brought another sell-off day. The BTC ended the week at the level of $82,4K. The RSI tried to breach the 50 level in order to start a path toward the overbought market side, however, the indicator ended the week at the level of 44. At this moment, it is questionable whether the market is eyeing the oversold market side for one more time. It is more likely that the investors are uncertain which side to trade. Significant developments are also with MA50 and MA200 lines, which are converging toward each other for some time now, pointing to a probability of a cross within a few weeks from now. This time, it will be a so-called dead cross, implying a BTCs potential for further decrease in value. Current charts are showing a potential for BTC to move toward both sides during the week ahead. On an upside, there is some probability for the levels above $85K, but not higher from $86K. On the opposite side, the support line at $80K might easily be the first stop of BTC in the week ahead. However, this is not a long term significant level, so in case that $80K is reached, the BTC will not spend too much time testing it. It should be considered that NFP and unemployment data for the US will be posted, so volatility will most probably continue also in the week ahead.
Last week in the news Trade tariffs and inflation were the most watched words during the previous week, which shaped the market sentiment. Although US equities tried to express some shy positivity, the University of Michigan consumer Sentiment on inflation expectations put a shadow on a positive sentiment. The US equity market was traded sharply to downside on Friday, where the S&P 500 lost 1,97% in value, ending the week at the level of 5.580. On the opposite side was the price of gold, which reached the fresh, new all time highest level at $3.080. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark yields also reacted strongly to increased inflation expectations, dropping on Friday to the level of 4,25%. The crypto market followed the general negative sentiment, where BTC ended the week modestly above the $82K. The US macro data published during the previous week, strongly impacted market sentiment. The PCE for February showed further modest increase in inflation, as the index reached 0,3% for the month and 2,5% on a yearly basis. Core PCE continues to be elevated, with an increase of 0,4% in February and +2,8% compared to the previous year. However, the highest surprise came from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, final for March, where inflation expectations for this year were elevated to the level of 5,0%, a jump from previous 4,3%. At the same time, there has been an increase in inflation expectations for the next five years, which reached the level of 4,1% from previous 3,5%. The increased inflation expectations in line with news regarding trade tariffs put the negative sentiment among investors, where the US equity markets dropped sharply during Friday's trading session, as well as US Treasury yields. Another tech company above the $ 1B valuation is free for trading on the NASDAQ from the previous week. The company in question is CoreWawe, under ticker CRWV. The company is a seller of artificial intelligence in the cloud, and is a supplier of OpenAI. CoreWave is better known as one of the companies with the highest initial public offering of $1,5B. The achieved price at the first trading day on Friday was $40 per share. Analysts from Bank of America noted on Friday that, in their opinion, the equities in the US are still very expensive. The exact wording that was used is that the market “remains statistically expensive on almost every measure we track”. However, they acknowledged the recent correction, but remain cautious on the policy uncertainty. As news is reporting, Grayscale, the US based investment fund, filed with SEC for the approval for their first spot Avalanche exchange traded fund to be listed on NASDAQ. Grayscale for some time is managing the Avalanche Trust, which carries 2,5% yearly fee. If approved, the ETF will provide for a wider range of investors exposure toward AVAX token. Crypto market cap CRYPTO MARKET Markets were not happy with increased inflation expectations, while further rhetoric regarding new trade tariffs from the US Administration and other world governments are not providing any sort of confidence to investors. Market reacted in a negative manner during the previous week, dragging the crypto market toward the downside. Total crypto market capitalization was decreased by additional 3% or total $72B on a weekly basis. Daily trading volumes were modestly increased to the level of $132B on a daily basis, from $92B traded a week before. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at -18%, with $592B outflow of funds. General negative market sentiment pulled the crypto market toward the downside, but not all altcoins ended the week in red. BTC had the highest decrease in market cap of $28B, decreased its value by 1,7% w/w. ETH lost $16B in value or 6,8%. Other major coins ended the week in a negative territory. XRP had a weekly drop in value of 10,7%, with a loss of FWB:15B in market cap. BNB was down by 3,1%, market favourite Solana decreased its value by 2,5%, while ADA dropped by 4,5%. Few coins finished the week with a positive weekly result. ZCash managed to add to its value almost 18%, Maker ended the week higher by 8,5%. With respect to coins in circulation, some of the highest weekly gains were marked with stablecoin Tether, with an increase in the number of coins by 0,5%. Solana`s coins in circulation were higher by 0,3%, while Polkadot increased the number of coins on the market by 0,6% w/w. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market was also in a negative mood during the previous week. Although BTC lost around 1,7% in value on a weekly basis, its futures decreased much less, around 0,5% for all maturities. Still, for the last three weeks, BTC long term futures fell below the $100K level but are still holding above the $90K. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at $88.500, which was a drop of around 1% w/w, while futures maturing in December 2026 were last traded at $97.570 or 0,44% lower w/w. ETH futures had a higher drop on a weekly basis, of more than 5%. In this sense, futures maturing in December 2025 achieved the last price at $1.983, and those maturing in December 2026 ended the week at $2.133.
Der Goldmarkt befindet sich derzeit in einem typischen Aufwärtstrend, wobei die Preise weiterhin auf historische Höchststände klettern. Nachdem er morgens bei 3087 leicht höher eröffnet hatte, stieg er schnell bis zur Linie 3097, fiel dann zurück, um die Lücke auf etwa 3076 zu schließen, bevor er wieder anstieg. Dieser Schritt ist ein klares Zeichen dafür, dass der Markt weiterhin unter der Kontrolle starker Bullen steht, signalisiert aber auch, dass die Risiken zunehmen. Eingehende technische Analyse Tägliche Levelanalyse Das zweite goldene Kreuz des MACD-Indikators weist ein hohes Volumen auf, was zeigt, dass die Bullen über eine starke Dynamik verfügen Der intelligente Indikator STO gelangte schnell in den überkauften Bereich und warnte vor der Gefahr einer Korrektur Wichtige Unterstützungsniveaus: nahe 3062 und der Linie 3057 System des gleitenden Durchschnitts: MA5 (3054) und MA10 (3043) werden aufgrund der nachlaufenden Natur der Indikatoren vorübergehend nicht berücksichtigt. 4-Stunden-Level-Analyse Der Preis blieb im Bereich von 3065-3086 und durchbrach dann den Durchbruch. Die Lücke 3084-3087 ist zu einem wichtigen Unterstützungsbereich geworden Sekundäre Unterstützungsebene: Leitung 3076-73 und 3065 Das goldene Kreuz des MACD weist ein hohes Volumen auf und schwankt, und der STO ist überkauft und steigt, was auf einen volatilen Aufwärtstrend hindeutet. Stündliche Pegelanalyse Nachdem das Yin die Lücke geschlossen hatte, stieg das Yang sofort an, was darauf hindeutet, dass die steigende Dynamik noch nicht erschöpft ist. Das tote Kreuz des MACD ändert sich zum goldenen Kreuz, der STO-Indikator steigt Wichtiger Supportbereich: 3089-3085-3081 Wichtige Preistipps Bullische Verteidigungslinie: Kurzfristig: 3084-3087 (Lückenunterstützung) Mittelfristig: 3066-70 (Lang-Kurz-Grenze) Langfristig: 3050-55 (lang-kurze Wasserscheide) Oberer Widerstand: 3107-3109 3111-3118 3135 Beratung zur Handelsstrategie Lange Strategie (mit Vorsicht teilnehmen) Einstiegspunkt: etwa 3085-87 Stop-Loss-Einstellung: unter 3076 Zielniveau: 3095→3105→3118→3135 (Take-Profit in Chargen) Kernlogik: Die Gap-Unterstützung ist effektiv und die kurzfristige Aufwärtsdynamik ist immer noch da Short-Position-Layout (Vorbereitung auf Rückrufe) Mögliche Leerverkaufsbereiche: 3111-3118 In der Nähe von 3135 Stop-Loss-Einstellung: 2-3 USD Hoch vor Durchbruch Ziel: 10-20 USD Rückrufraum Kernlogik: technischer Reparaturbedarf nach extremer Überkaufung Besondere Erinnerung Merkmale des wöchentlichen Handels außerhalb der Landwirtschaft: Der Anstieg könnte sich zu Beginn der Woche (Montag bis Mittwoch) fortsetzen. Die ADP-Daten vom Donnerstag und die Beschäftigungszahlen außerhalb der Landwirtschaft vom Freitag könnten heftige Schwankungen auslösen Es wird empfohlen, die Positionen vor wichtigen Ereignissen zu reduzieren Kernpunkte der Risikokontrolle: Stoppen Sie Verluste strikt, um plötzliche Umkehrungen zu verhindern Vermeiden Sie es, Long-Positionen bei wichtigen Widerstandsniveaus zu verfolgen Positionen werden innerhalb von 5 % kontrolliert Marktwarnung: Es befindet sich derzeit in einem typischen „Fish-Tail-Markt“, bei dem sich das Gewinn-Verlust-Verhältnis verschlechtert. Auf Stierkarnevale folgen oft heftige Korrekturen Sie müssen rational bleiben und dürfen dem Aufstieg nicht blind nachjagen. Abschluss Obwohl der Goldmarkt derzeit weiterhin stark ist, zeigt das technische Bild mehrere Überkaufsignale. Anlegern wird empfohlen, ruhig zu bleiben, bei wichtigen Unterstützungsniveaus vorsichtig Long-Positionen einzugehen und bei wichtigen Widerstandsniveaus Short-Orders zu platzieren, um sich auf eine mögliche scharfe Korrektur vorzubereiten. Denken Sie daran: Wenn der Markt am verrücktesten ist, ist es oft notwendig, einen klaren Kopf zu bewahren. Strikte Risikokontrolle und Positionsmanagement sind der Schlüssel zum Überleben auf dem aktuellen Markt.
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Metaplanet Inc., a publicly traded Tokyo-based investment firm, has announced plans to raise an additional 2 billion yen (approximately $13.4 million) through the issuance of zero-interest bonds. The proceeds from this initiative will be used to acquire more Bitcoin (BTC), reinforcing the company’s aggressive strategy of integrating cryptocurrency into its treasury reserves. This move is […]
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