EUR/USD is in a downward wedge and has bounced off the Fibonacci 50% retracement from the weekly chart, which is also in a supply zone, so there should be good support there. The upper trendline was already broken during the US CPI news today, but the price went back into the wedge. Resistance is probably not strong at least until US CPI news high, so there's a good chance of breaking up and out of the wedge and reaching at least the forecasted level.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/WNjSh5Gn/ https://www.tradingview.com/x/X5zVDoIb/ DESCRIPTION OF TRADE AS we can clearly identify head and shoulder pattern and retest of the neckline of the pattern , which gives us a text book confluence of the pattern . And so , inline with the chart pattern we now look for market structure to look for potential trade we could get . Atm, i am looking only for buy opportunity and in line with the market structure. My trade confluences are : 1 Market structure in in line with overall swing structure 2 Supply and demand 3 Liquidity 4 Premium / Discount area. Note : With confluences there are other key factors that will help me decide to take trades e.g. time of the trade , live market footprint etc .
Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Bullish breakout again. CPI was in line and no one cares about bad news, when markets can only go up. Same reasoning for sp500 & nasdaq as on dax. We can do higher highs but I don’t think we will go much further. Sideways inside the given range is my assumption. Sp500 will likely hit 6000 before end of the week. comment: Late rallies in trends based on neutral news (at best) is never a reason to expect big follow through. Bulls printed a good daily but still a lower high. A measured move up would get us to around 6130, depending on how you calculate it. Since I have another target around 6160, it’s somewhat ok. There are also 2 upper bull trend lines but they are above 6200, so let’s not focus on them as of now. I still have my doubts we just move higher in an Opex week with that euphoric sentiment but I won’t say it can not happen. Tomorrow will be important. If bulls don’t get the follow through, we will likely test 6000 next. current market cycle: bull trend - late and will end soon key levels: 6000 - 6170 bull case: Bulls should not let the market drop below 6070-6080 if they want the momentum to continue. We have the obvious target 6113 and above that I got 6130 next. How likely is another strong leg up? Bulls bought near the bull trend line and we are inside a decent channel and nested bull wedges. They have many arguments on their side to continue higher inside the current structure. Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Bears quickly gave up after the CPI spike and let the market rip to 6100. The bears can argue a couple of things. First is the euphoric sentiment in a globex week. It’s unlikely that we close the week at the very highs. Next is the higher time frame argument for a two-legged pullback. On the daily chart the move down to 6039 can be seen as A, B today hit 6102 and C could give us 5973 or at least 6000. If I had to guess as of now, chop between 6050 - 6100 is the most likely outcome. Invalidation is above 6130. short term: Neutral. I won’t buy near or above 6100 but I will also not short after a 50 point ripper. Tough spot right now and I expect more fake moves to both sides until end of Friday. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-11: Will write an update after Opex on Friday. If we stay above 6000, can print 6200 easily into year end. If Friday closes below 6000, we could drop some more and upside above 6100 will also probably be limited. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Question on those news spike is always, could you have anticipated it? Don’t play that game, it’s a fools game and you have no edge. Next best question is, could you have longed after the initial spike? Yeah you can but stop had to be 6045 and that would have been 20+ points already. Since market just continued above the 5m 20ema, any long was obviously the right call after the spike. Still tough to take since your stop is so far away.
I've been trying to wrap my head around the movement with the $9.50 spike recently from an Elliot Wave Theory and fibs perspective. The closest I've gotten to making it all make sense is that we just had a crazy wave 4 correction and this low of $7.24 works out fib wise with wave 1. We also have 4 divergences in our favor. Let's see how this theory holds!
Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil futures - Neutral. Having a hard time being bullish inside trading ranges and unexpected moves higher. Volume is utter trash and yet market broke above last weeks high and the bear trend line. Bulls want 71 next but I would not be surprised if we go down to 68 or even 67 again. comment: Daily chart shows the trading range which is still contracting but the very small break above last weeks high is a start for the bulls. Buying at previous resistance inside a trading range is always a bad trade. I’d rather wait if bulls come around big time on a pullback and see if it has strong momentum and can break above 70.5. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 67 - 71 bull case: Bulls made a small higher high and now want 71 next. The rally is not particularly strong and the volume is also atrocious. I don’t have many arguments for the bulls here. Invalidation is below 66.27 bear case: Bulls have not printed more than 2 consecutive bull bars for almost 2 months now. Bears see that, previous resistance 70.5 from last week and still a bear trend line close enough. They have much more reasons to sell this, than bulls have for buying it. Invalidation is above 70.6. short term: Neutral. I wait for one side to gain momentum again but my bar for the bulls is higher than for the bears. I don’t have an opinion on where this goes next. For me it’s 50/50 if we go down to at least 69 or higher to 71. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10 : Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year. current swing trade : Nope trade of the day: Tough. Long was obviously right but there were so many trend lines that could have been resistance, it was much more reasonable to not take the longs than to hope for a breakout above multiple trend lines.
Targeting around a 63% gain from these levels on ETH to finish wave 5 and cycle top at ATH.
Descuento en corto plazo basado en la media móvil de 200 periodos
OVERVIEW The EUR/USD pair is locked in a strong downtrend, with major resistance at 1.13835 and critical support at 0.6155. A break below 0.8931 could signal severe economic implications. Technical indicators, including moving averages and oscillators, are predominantly bearish, with recent patterns hinting at a potential short-term bullish recovery above 1.0610, targeting levels like 1.0710, 1.0960, and 1.1320. Fundamentally, interest rate cuts by the ECB and Fed are key drivers of recent price action, keeping the pair in a narrow range. Long-term forecasts predict further euro weakness, making this a crucial time for traders to manage risk effectively. Position traders should watch for potential breakdowns below key support, while short-term traders may find opportunities in bullish momentum above resistance levels. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The EUR/USD pair is experiencing a pronounced downtrend on the monthly timeframe, marked by significant pivot points: Pivot High: 1.16164 Resistance Level (Major): 1.13835 Resistance Level (Minor): 1.0630 Support Levels: 0.6155 (critical) and 0.5633 (pivot low). A close below 0.8931 would confirm a larger, catastrophic economic downturn, with price movements potentially signaling a "Global Economic Famine." Oscillators Indicators such as RSI (42.91), Stochastic %K (34.56), and Commodity Channel Index (-167.50) remain neutral, suggesting low momentum for a strong reversal in the short term. Momentum (-0.030) and MACD Level (-0.00416) indicate sell signals, aligning with the bearish sentiment. Moving Averages All major EMAs and SMAs across periods (10 to 200) are aligned as sell signals, emphasizing the persistent bearish trend. The Ichimoku Base Line at 1.05029 is neutral, providing limited support for bullish recovery. TECHNICAL PATTERN OBSERVATIONS A double-top formation at 1.1200 in September signaled bearish control, supported by a death cross in EMAs. Recent inverse head-and-shoulders at 1.0333 suggests a potential bullish recovery if the price sustains above 1.0610, targeting 1.0710, 1.0960, and 1.1320 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Interest Rate Outlook: In 2024, expectations for central bank rate cuts influenced the EUR/USD trading range between 1.0600–1.1210. The European Central Bank (ECB) initiated a rate cut in June (4.50% to 4.25%), while the US Federal Reserve followed in September (5.50% to 5.0%). Forecasts & Risks: Long-term projections for 2026-2027 show the euro likely declining to 1.0250–1.0300, with adjustments possible based on macroeconomic shifts. If resistance at 1.0630 is broken, the EUR/USD may target the 1.0960–1.1260 range. However, failure to maintain these levels will reinforce the broader bearish trend. STRATEGIC TAKEAWAYS Position Traders: Watch the critical support at 0.8931—a breach signals significant economic risks. Short-Term Traders: Closely monitor the 1.0610 level. Bullish action above this may present buying opportunities toward 1.0710, 1.0960, and 1.1320 but bearish dominance remains strong.
#RSR/USDT bounced back from 4H FVG in 4-Hour TF! Waiting for this OTE to be tapped to long #RSRUSDT. The local support level is PMH $0.01.
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