Introduction The fourth Bitcoin halving, anticipated on April 15th, 2024, marks the beginning of a new era, reinforcing Bitcoin's deflationary narrative and catalyzing its cyclical market dynamics. With 90% of Bitcoin's supply already mined and a reduced block reward of 3.125 BTC, scarcity is set to increase, setting the stage for a bullish trajectory. Historically, Bitcoin’s halving cycles have driven predictable phases: bullish trends in the initial 70,000 blocks, bearish retracements in the next 70,000 blocks, and sideways consolidation in the final stretch before the next halving. As we step into the bullish phase of Halving 4, this analysis explores Bitcoin’s trajectory toward a potential peak of $150,000, supported by historical patterns, logarithmic regression models, and on-chain metrics like the MVRV ratio and z-score. Where Are We Today? Having experienced the lows of the third halving era, which began on May 11th, 2020, Bitcoin has successfully weathered the sideways phase characterized by market equilibrium. With the MVRV ratio at 2.24, Bitcoin is signaling fair value, poised for the bullish uptrend expected in the fourth halving era. Historically, Bitcoin’s market dominance reflects this cyclical behavior. During bearish and sideways phases, dominance often falls below 40%, but as the bullish phase takes hold, dominance surges to 70%, bolstering its influence over the entire cryptocurrency market. These dynamics suggest that Bitcoin is primed for significant price appreciation. Halving Cycles and Price Projections The logarithmic regression model shown in the chart encapsulates Bitcoin’s historical price patterns. The projected target of $150,000 aligns with the intersection of Bitcoin's parabolic uptrend and its logarithmic regression of highs. Key milestones include: Post-Halving Bullish Phase (0 to 70,000 blocks): Historically marked by exponential price growth. Bearish Phase (70,000 to 140,000 blocks): A retracement period, with average drawdowns of 80% from cycle highs. Sideways Phase (140,000 to 210,000 blocks): A period of consolidation, setting the stage for the next halving. For Halving 4, projections suggest: A high of $150,000 during the bullish phase. An 80% drawdown, positioning the bearish-phase low at $55,000. The MVRV Ratio: A Key Indicator The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) serves as a robust tool for assessing Bitcoin’s valuation. Current metrics indicate that Bitcoin is fairly valued, with room for substantial growth in the coming phase: Historical Extremes: MVRV > 3.7: Overbought conditions, signaling market tops. MVRV < 1: Undervalued conditions, signaling market bottoms. As Bitcoin transitions into the fourth halving era, the MVRV ratio’s current reading of 2.24 suggests equilibrium, with significant upside potential. Projected Timeline April 2024 (Halving): Bitcoin enters the bullish phase, with increasing demand outpacing diminishing supply. 2025-2026: Price targets of $150,000 are achievable as the cycle matures. Post-Bullish Phase: Expected retracement to $55,000, aligning with historical drawdowns. Conclusion Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, driven by its deflationary halving mechanism, positions it as a unique asset in the financial markets. As we enter the fourth halving era, the combination of historical data, on-chain metrics like the MVRV ratio, and market dynamics underscores the potential for Bitcoin to reach $150,000. This analysis highlights Bitcoin's enduring appeal as a store of value and a driver of innovation in the digital asset space. While short-term volatility is inevitable, the long-term outlook remains bullish. Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are inherently volatile, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Sources: Coin Metrics CryptoQuant TradingView Data Analysis
Movement (MOVE), an Ethereum-based layer-2 blockchain, has surged 50% in price within the past 24 hours. The MOVE token price spike came just a day after the project’s official launch, which included distributing rewards through an airdrop to its early users. On the 1-hour chart, the MOVE price hovers around the $0.6 mark but has previously rallied to $1.56. However, as it stands, the token is still in price discovery mode. In crypto, price discovery is the process where buyers and sellers interact to establish a cryptocurrency’s fair market value. Since the token of the layer-2 project just launched, there is a high chance that it is yet to reach an agreed fair value. But if the volume continues to climb, the altcoin might trade higher in the short term. However, if airdrop recipients begin to sell in large volumes, this might not happen. Instead, the token might experience a correction.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is approaching a critical zone between 89,000 and 92,000. If it maintains support in this range, there is potential for a bounce toward the recent high of around 104,000 and possibly up to 120,000. As long as Bitcoin stays above the key support levels of 89,000/92,000, the upward momentum is expected to remain strong.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/LiFFukyK/ ✅ETHEREUM is going down now But a strong support level is ahead at 3500$ Thus I am expecting a rebound And a move up towards the target at 3670$ LONG? ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
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First of all you should know that "USDT Dominance" is always moving inverse of BTCUSDT . It seems that Tether Dominance has entered a large C wave. There are numerous requests to determine the market direction in this situation. Based on our analyses, it seems that Tether dominance will move as follows. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
? Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Let’s dive into the market and analyze OPUSDT, focusing on a detailed breakdown of its structure. Remember, those who stay calm and manage their emotions during market corrections are the ones who profit big in the bull run. ? Market Overview As always, we start with Bitcoin. Currently, it’s undergoing a minor pullback with hourly red candles and good volume. However, this is a positive development as it signals a potential pullback in Bitcoin dominance, possibly forming a lower high on the daily timeframe—a bullish indicator for altcoins. Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around the 94,660 support. If this level is broken and Bitcoin moves toward 91,000 with a rising dominance, altcoins could see another 20-30% drop. https://www.tradingview.com/x/0DVoiTs7/ ? Weekly Time Frame OP is a relatively new coin, part of the Layer 2 category, and hasn’t experienced a bull run yet. The weekly candle shows a strong rejection at 2.688, making it a better resistance level than the previous 3.016. This rejection also enhances the significance of the 2.688 entry point. Additionally, there’s a hidden trendline that has acted as support in the past, and after breaking it, the price pulled back. It has rejected this level again, suggesting potential future significance. For safer entries, wait for support confirmation on lower timeframes or a breakout above 2.688. If you already bought at the 1.93 breakout, hold your position and remain patient. ? Daily Time Frame On the daily chart, after breaking out of the accumulation box between 1.324 and 1.833, the price moved the size of the box to reach its first target (R:R 1). From there, it faced a heavy rejection. pullback to the 1.833 support seems logical as this level aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and Dow Theory principles. Confirmation on lower timeframes could signal a bullish reversal. For now, wait for the downward momentum to fade before planning new entries. If the market moves sharply upward, this could introduce strong bullish momentum, allowing for higher-risk entries. https://www.tradingview.com/x/OI2ixTk4/ ? 4-Hour Time Frame On the 4-hour chart, the coin broke a rising trendline, leading to a drop. I personally didn’t open any short positions, nor would I recommend them in this context. If 2.049 support is broken and Bitcoin dominance rises, the price could drop further to 1.833. Decision-making at that level will be key. ? Long Position Trigger if the price ranges between 2.049 and 2.283 and starts gaining bullish momentum, a breakout above 2.283 with increasing volume would offer an early entry opportunity. ? Short Position Trigger while breaking 2.049 might seem like a trigger, I still don’t recommend it. If you choose to short, watch the RSI, which is deeply oversold. https://www.tradingview.com/x/TaLi2Bgp/ ? BTC Pair Insight In the current conditions, the Bitcoin pair (OPBTC) might not hold much significance. Coins that have either not dropped much or completed healthy corrections with declining bearish momentum are more favorable. For OPBTC, the key trigger would be a breakout above 0.00002975, which could signal the start of its upward move in a bullish market. https://www.tradingview.com/x/1nfdcIDe/ ? Final Thoughts Stay calm, trade wisely, and let's capture the market's best opportunities! This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
If AAVE manage to close the weekly candle above $280 would indicate a potential reach for $400 region. Strong momentum, it is above the anchored vwap from last bull run highs and above value area high from the broke trend from nov 2021. The target is between point of control and value area high from the last bull run and fibonacci retracement levels. TARGET: $392 to $460 up to (+76%)
How many took profits on EHEX @ .0069? That was a clear winner for all of us... Well...here we are once again! What is the next move for EHEX? BankX clearly had sell walls set at these levels. Now it is important to watch if the SUPPORT on EHEX holds...or do we break back down into the GOLDEN POCKET? . I would DCA in at SUPPORT and set a good size LIMIT order for the GOLDEN POCKET. All depends on what big daddy BTC does in the coming weeks. Watch for 91k. If that level breaks we head for 85k. That would hit our GOLDEN POCKET...watch for quick wicks below the pocket... not to worry...the upside is going to be AWESOME!!! ********* HAVE A HAPPY HEXICAN DAY ********
Entry is planned using Buystop at 0.64724 with SL 0.63645 for a TP 0.65803