Weekly Update 1/29 – 1/25: Two things of importance this week to consider. First and always is the weather and second and always is the supply/demand storage balance. Models have been having some trouble the last four days in holding the Greenland blocking in place. Which is showing up as the arctic cold being displaced and not being injected into the North American mid-continent. The Polar vortex is still predicted to continue elongating though February and early March. Which should keep furnaces burning and gas being consumed. This is a longer term impact on NG pricing, especially with models varying from run to run showing brief run ups in temperature the last few days of January, which happen to coincide with the February contract roll-over. So, I will briefly touch upon the weather set up, but of more importance this week is the Artic cold and frozen precipitation making its way to the Gulf Coast. Which will have a tremendous impact on well head freeze offs and the LNG production facilities. I believe this is going to set up a one-two punch, if you will for the next 7-10 days of trading. Weather impacts. The weekend GFS weather data trended 3 HDDs warmer, while the EC trended 6 HDDs colder. Both maintain a frosty Arctic Blast the several few days, although the EC was numerous HDDs colder than the GFS with a weather system into the Midwest and East Jan 28-30. Both then forecast a much milder US pattern gaining ground over the US the first few days of February, although with the GFS teasing a new frigid blast pushing into the Midwest around Feb 2-4. Sunday night and Monday opening we can expect an emotional reaction on the models turning warmer since Friday mid-day and the MLK trading holiday tomorrow. There was a great deal of profit taking as of Friday EOD, with the price moving almost $1.00 off the lows of the month. I would hope people would be smart enough to take some profits off the table after such a big move! But, for the week there were two 60 cent moves and one 40 cent move for the week, and I see no change in this pattern until we get into the second week of February and the back half of winter starts to verify for storage amounts. The weather this week is going to be down right brutal in the US. The first concern are the well head freeze-offs. Today, 1/19/25, production is down to 101 BCF/d with freeze offs in the Bakken and the Marcellus. We are expecting the late cycle revisions to revise production down further. There is a belief that production might hit the lows seen last year of 90 BCF/d. “We could see 10 Bcf/d or more of lost production due to freeze-offs” during the cold snap, said Huenefeld. These could include “substantial disruptions” not only in the Marcellus Shale, but potentially the Midcontinent, Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin, he said. Reduced production, in turn, “could exacerbate the storage draw” for the week ending Jan. 24, which may exceed 300 Bcf, Huenefeld said. That’s right industry followers are now confirming that we can see a 300 BCF withdrawal this week! This would bring storage under the 5-year average for the first time since last winter. The cold is here to stay for the next seven days and that will continue to be a big factor on production and heating demand. As the week wears on and the models battle back and forth, we can expect that daily model runs to keep daily pricing volatile. So be prepared for daily swings 20-30 cents again. Long term I am still in the colder than normal belief. This continued elongation of the Polar Vortex is not predicted to end, we just need the models to get on board. But this I believe will happen in time. Supply/demand storage concerns: Well heads, pipelines and Europe! As discussed above, production is being curtailed, via Mother Nature. Well head freeze offs have been a constant concern in the Bakken area in North Dakota. This has skyrocket pricing all over the US with Henry Hub spot price currently $10.70. Spot pricing in the North East is currently trading over $100.00 BCF. While there is limited contribution to the overall supply structure coming out of the Bakken, it does supply more NG than the GOM and it is a good barometer for infrastructure issues with the production and transportation of NG. As the temperature drops the water in the gas condensate freezes and prevents the gas from flowing, both at the well head and at the compressor stations which move NG in the pipeline. It only need to be a few degrees below freezing to create a giant headache for the production and distribution of NG. Wood Mackenzie also noted that, “A long list of pipelines across the U.S.” have already posted operational flow orders (OFS) and weather alerts, anticipating the shocks of extreme cold temperatures that could linger until Wednesday or Thursday. “The complete list of pipelines that have issued OFOs or OFO warnings is too long to include,” Wood Mackenzie said in a separate update. With all 50 US states predicted to be below freezing and the major production areas to be 5-20 degrees below freezing, we can start to see where and why production would drop for the next 5 days. Take above normal HDD, then add in drop in production, and it is a nice recipe for bullish momentum. LNG terminals have been running at historic levels the last three days. We are waiting for confirmation for the first 16 BCF/d! Which I see happening today or tomorrow. Now the big worry sometime Wednesday morning is if it is too cold to produce LNG at the coast facilities. There is a historic winter storm predicted to lay down frozen precipitation from Houston to Savannah, Ga along the I-10 corridor. Which is the heart of LNG country! If you remember last year, Freeport experienced a severe freeze off which disrupted LNG production and needed repair for over 6 weeks. This was the beginning of the downturn in NG pricing last year to the lows in February-March 24. This season is a bit different in that there is a concern that the US is colder than normal and NG storage is going to be below the 5-year average. But Institutional traders love a reason to sell and take our money. Remember history may not repeat, but it does rhyme! So, the expectation is that LNG production will keep bullish momentum on pricing, but keep a keen eye on facility issues to rug pull the LNG card. This is not investing advice, please trade at your own risk. But I did take positions the end of the day Friday, with the expectation that there will be big disruptions in the production of supply. Which I will hold hopefully until the EIA report. I do expect trading to be a bit light due to the US futures market having abbreviated hours. Which I believe will be a good set up for the news of freeze offs coming in Monday afternoon and night for open on Tuesday. I expect and will be trading the big daily bounces once the market opens in London tomorrow, but will be prepared for the NY market to be closing early. I will be watching LNG facilities for signs of distress with production numbers declining. If I see production of LNG dropping, I will be expecting it to temporarily impact a downward trend on pricing. Lots and lots to be watching out for. Keep it burning boys!
Today we're looking at a potential bearish trading opportunity on the USDJPY. After a long bullish rally, followed by a lengthy period of consolidation in the form of a rising channel. The &USDJPY has violated the pattern to the downside & with the recent pullback, is giving us an opportunity to jump on the next potential move down. As we venture down to the hourly chart, we may have a potential double top to open our week which would be an excellent entry reason for getting involved. On the fundamental side of things, later this week the Bank of Japan will make an interest rate decision & word on the street is that they are considering a hike. How a lot will depend on what happens after President Donald Trump takes over, but if an interest rate hike from the BOJ were to happen it "should" mean Yen strength and confirmation for our bearish prediction. If you have any questions or comments please leave them below. And I hope you guys have an excellent week of trading. Akil
CAD/JPY is exhibiting bearish momentum after breaking below the ascending channel. This breakdown signals a potential shift in market sentiment, with sellers gaining control. The price is currently trading below the channel's lower trendline, confirming bearish pressure. The next significant target lies around the 106.00 support level, which aligns with a previous demand zone. A retest of the broken trendline near 108.00 could occur before the downtrend resumes, providing a better entry for sellers. Traders must exercise caution and set their stop-loss levels according to their risk management to protect against unexpected reversals. The bearish outlook remains valid as long as the price stays below the broken channel. ?
HASHAIUSDT is currently trading inside a bull flag and is due to breakout up soon . possible final leg down before the breakout . Wait for a confirmed breakout or OB fill to enter long Good LUck
USD/CAD has broken above a key resistance level, confirming strong bullish momentum. This breakout suggests a high probability of further upside movement, with the next target around 1.4615. While the bullish trend remains intact, there is a possibility of a short-term correction, with a retest of the broken resistance to confirm it as new support. Such a move would provide a stronger foundation for the continuation of the uptrend. Traders should remain focused on the bullish potential but must set their stop-loss levels according to their risk management strategies to account for possible short-term retracements. This is a great opportunity to ride the momentum while managing risk effectively! ??
Ethereum Classic has a huge potential for a bullish movement toward a new all-time high across multiple possible scenarios as long as the price holds above $17.4, which is the stop-loss. Breaking this level would invalidate this bullish idea.
Emerging expanding triangle is forming of wave c of bearish corrective abc zigzag Currently we are in bearish wave 5 of the expanding triangle The future move is indicated by the white path Breakout of the upper Boundary of the expanding triangle confirms the up move
I'm not sure. Gartley Harmonic on BTC/USD played out nicely. Wave 1 to Wave 2 looks legitimate, but i'm not sure if its played out yet (AKA Bull trap). For wave 3 to be legitimate, it should go above the start of Wave 1? Based on the bearish Gartley, unless price exceeds the end of Wave 1 (the last high), I'm taking it that Wave 2 is incomplete. See what happens. Watching Pepe at the same time, for Pepe I thought that Wave 5 was a truncation. Separate thread. My point is that it coinsides with Pepe, validating that it was not a truncation but rather the normal Wave 5 taking place. Sentiment. Correction incoming. BUT.. if were still in a Wave 2 .. KNOW THAT WAVE 3 is the largest. And defiantly the wave you want to ride : ) Its just about catching it! :)
? Technical analysis: Ascending channel - 1D ? BINANCE:DOGEUSDT ? It is moving in an ascending channel that has had positive reactions to the trend line several times. ? It is currently in the important area of 39 cents. If the price can stabilize above the 39 range, it can touch the nearby targets of 43 and 48 cents. ? Therefore, by stabilizing in the 39 cents area, it will be able to break the supply area for the mentioned nearby targets. ? BINANCE:DOGEUSDT in the weekly timeframe: https://www.tradingview.com/x/BVmO48Tm/ ?Considering that in the weekly timeframe, Dogecoin has succeeded in breaking the triangle density, therefore, Dogecoin can continue its growth in this upward rally to the height of the triangle, which this growth from the golden area of the previous wave can touch the target of the previous major ceiling and the $ 1.2 range. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea ? with a LIKE ? and COMMENT ? if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email ? in the future. Thanks for your continued support.? Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« https://www.tradingview.com/x/tFxcKsP7/
If we are smart enough, we can catch the retracement towards 2710. This move is not a given however, a lot on the chart justifies the move. Let us observe how prace behaves when market opens.