Based on the H1 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 1.2654, an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A rejection at this level could drive prices lower toward our take profit at 1.2616, an overlap support. The stop loss is set at 1.2691, positioned above the previous swing high, providing sufficient room for fluctuations while ensuring the bearish setup remains valid. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Is the Market Preparing for a Turnaround? PEIPEI (BYBIT-1000000PEIPEIUSDT.P) is at a critical juncture, trading at $0.03381, down a staggering 91% from its all-time high of $0.3987. With RSI at 27.91, the asset is deep in oversold territory, signaling a potential setup for a bounce. However, a surge in sell volumes raises the question—will buyers step in, or is there another leg down? The resistance at $0.03697 is the first test for bulls, while the $0.02977 support level could determine whether this is a buy-the-dip moment or a breakdown waiting to happen. The battle between VSA buy patterns and sell volume dominance is heating up, setting the stage for a decisive move. Are traders ready for a sharp reversal, or is this just another stop on the way down? Time is running out—PEIPEI is on the edge. Roadmap: PEIPEI’s Recent Pattern Evolution – What’s Next? Tracking PEIPEI’s price action over the last few days, we’ve seen a series of buy and sell dominance patterns battling for control. Some have hit their marks perfectly, confirming expected movements, while others failed to trigger, leading to unexpected reversals. Here’s the key roadmap of what unfolded and what traders should watch for next: February 22, 07:00 UTC – Increased Buy Volumes A strong push saw PEIPEI climbing from $0.04001 to $0.0419, confirming buy-side momentum. This setup followed a classic VSA Buy Pattern, hinting at sustained upside pressure. February 22, 08:00 UTC – Buy Volumes Take Over (Sell Reversal Fails) Instead of holding the gains, PEIPEI saw an aggressive reversal with a close at $0.03969, undercutting previous lows. This was a failed bullish continuation, showing early signs of weakness. February 22, 23:00 UTC – Sell Volumes Max – Bears Take Over The real shift came when the increased sell volumes kicked in, dropping PEIPEI from $0.04134 to $0.0389. This was the first real test of bearish strength, confirming a shift in sentiment. February 23, 13:00 UTC – Increased Sell Volumes – Momentum Confirmed With PEIPEI closing at $0.03909, the downtrend gained serious traction. This was a strong signal that any rebounds were short-lived—sellers were in control. February 23, 14:00-15:00 UTC – VSA Buy Patterns Attempt a Comeback Two consecutive VSA Buy Patterns formed, but failed to hold ground above $0.04032, proving that bulls lacked conviction. February 24, 06:00 UTC – Buy Volumes Take Over (But Sellers Strike Back) Another brief bullish surge saw PEIPEI push toward $0.03836, only to close weaker at $0.03804. This was another case of a fake breakout, reinforcing bearish momentum. February 24, 22:00 UTC – Sell Volumes Spike Again This was the final confirmation—PEIPEI dropped from $0.03651 to $0.03358, closing near its lowest levels. At this stage, bears completely dominated the market, signaling potential for even lower prices. Key Takeaways for Traders: The roadmap is clear—bearish pressure has been unrelenting. Every bullish attempt has been met with strong resistance, with failed buy patterns reinforcing short-term downside bias. With PEIPEI trading at $0.03381, traders should keep an eye on $0.03697 resistance—a break above it could be the first sign of a real comeback. Until then, this remains a sell-the-rally environment. Technical & Price Action Analysis – Key Levels to Watch PEIPEI is at a make-or-break zone, and every trader should have these key levels on their radar. If these supports don’t hold, expect them to flip into resistance—trading is all about adapting to the tape. Support Levels: $0.02977 – First line of defense. If buyers don’t show up here, expect this to act as resistance on any weak bounces. Resistance Levels: $0.03697 – Immediate barrier. A strong close above signals momentum, otherwise it’s a bull trap. $0.04004 – The last short-term lid before bigger breakouts. Rejection here = more downside. $0.04921 – A serious level. Any push toward this zone needs real volume behind it. $0.05701 – Psychological battle zone. If price reaches here, momentum traders will pile in. $0.06098 – Major inflection point. If we see exhaustion here, expect a hard rejection. Powerful Support Levels: $0.08812 – If we ever get back here, it’s either a full reversal or a massive fakeout. A close below? Lights out for bulls. Right now, sellers are in control, but levels are made to be broken. Trade the confirmation, not the emotion. Trading Strategies Based on Rays – Optimistic & Pessimistic Scenarios The VSA Rays on the chart provide the foundation for trade setups. These rays, built on Fibonacci-based angles, define key interaction zones where price either bounces or breaks through, signaling the next directional move. Positions should be taken only after confirmation, meaning interaction with the ray and the first impulse in the expected direction. The movement will continue from one ray to the next, making them the core framework for entries and exits. Optimistic Scenario – Bulls Take Control Entry: On confirmation above $0.03697, the first resistance ray. Target 1: $0.04004 – If volume supports the move, this level is the first checkpoint. Target 2: $0.04921 – Breakout above will trigger FOMO buying. Target 3: $0.05701 - $0.06098 – Final target if bulls maintain control, where major profit-taking is expected. Stop Loss: Below $0.03697, as failure to hold means the breakout is invalid. ? Dynamic Factors to Watch: – MA50 (0.03797) & MA100 (0.03869) → If price breaks above and holds, this strengthens bullish momentum. – RSI moving above 50 → Signals increased buying strength. Pessimistic Scenario – Bears Regain Dominance Entry: On rejection at $0.03697, confirming resistance. Target 1: $0.02977 – Key support where a short trade can take partial profits. Target 2: $0.02448 – The lowest price in recent history, where liquidity may spike. Stop Loss: Above $0.03697, as a breakout would invalidate the short setup. ? Bearish Confirmation Factors: – Price rejection at MA50/MA100 → Means upside momentum is weakening. – RSI failing to break 40 → Confirms continued downside pressure. Potential Trade Setups Based on Key Levels & Rays Breakout Buy: If price closes above $0.03697, enter long with targets at $0.04004 and $0.04921. Support Bounce Buy: If $0.02977 holds with a strong bounce and volume, enter long targeting $0.03697. Short Rejection Trade: If price rejects $0.03697 with no bullish confirmation, enter short with $0.02977 as target. Breakdown Short: If price loses $0.02977, short targeting $0.02448, the last major low. The key takeaway? Price moves from ray to ray. Wait for confirmation, trade with the trend, and let the market show its hand before committing. ? Let’s Talk – Drop Your Questions Below! Trading is all about understanding levels and tracking price movement in real time—so don’t just read this and scroll past. Hit Boost, save this post, and come back later to see how price reacts to my mapped-out levels. Spoiler: it usually does. Got questions? Drop them in the comments—whether it’s about this setup or another asset you’re watching. If you want a personal breakdown of your favorite coin, stock, or commodity, I can do that too. Some analyses I share publicly, others I can do privately—just reach out and we’ll figure it out. For those asking about my auto-drawn Rays & Levels system—it’s private, but if you’re interested, send me a message, and we’ll talk. The best part? These levels work on every asset. ? Want a custom markup on your asset? Boost this post, comment below, and I’ll cover as many as I can! And if you’re not following me yet—well, now’s the time. See you in the next update! ?
Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 93100/61.80% Chart time frame: B A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress: B A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
Based on the H1 chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 1.0459, an overlap support. Our take profit is set at 1.0501, a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fiboancci retracement. The stop loss is placed at 1.0440, a pullback support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Gold continues to maintain a wide range of high-level fluctuations. After setting a new high of 2956 yesterday, the NY market fell sharply to around 2930, and then rose strongly again in the late trading, bottoming out and rebounding in the fluctuation range. The price is still running in a bullish trend structure. Today, the Asian session will first look at the continued rise of NY's late bottoming out and rebound, and pay attention to whether it can set a new intraday high. In terms of trading, keep buying at a low price, but only participate in short-term thinking. After the historical high or new high, pay attention to the indicator's top divergence and overbought, and there will be a fall and wash at any time. Last week, gold was affected by the dual impact of escalating geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in the global economic recovery, and the spot gold price showed a fluctuating upward trend. The weekly line maintained an upward pattern. The gold price fell again to around 2930 during the day and stood firmly above this position. At present, the short-term moving average is arranged in a bullish pattern, which clearly shows that the bulls have a dominant advantage. The bulls maintain an upward trend of shocks, the Bollinger Bands open upward, and various indicators are running at high levels. From the perspective of short-term indicators, the gold price still has the momentum to rise. However, it should be noted that the daily line has been oscillating in a high range for 4 consecutive trading days. This oscillating trend has both advantages and disadvantages for both long and short parties, and it is very likely to be a signal that the bulls have reached their peak. However, given that the gold price continued to rise after several pullbacks last week, there is also the possibility of a bull correction pattern. Therefore, it is recommended to start with intraday operations around the range oscillation, and once the market breaks through, it is necessary to leave the market in time. Key points: First support: 2942, second support: 2933, third support: 2920 First resistance: 2960, second resistance: 2968, third resistance: 2978 Operation ideas: BUY: 2933-2936, SL: 2925, TP: 2948-2950; SELL: 2968-2971, SL: 2980, TP: 2950-2940;
Hello everyone, what are your thoughts on XAUUSD - should we focus on buying or selling? Today, gold prices continue their upward trend, with spot prices at $2,954 per ounce, up $19 from the previous day's opening price of $2,936 per ounce. Accordingly, the international gold market continues to heat up as investors worry about geopolitical situations, including uncertainty in the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and information related to negotiations to stop the Russia-Ukraine military conflict. Notably, U.S. trade protectionist threats are strongly impacting the gold market. Especially when President Donald indicated that comprehensive tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will be implemented after the one-month delay period ends next week. As a result, many have increased their demand for gold as a safe-haven asset to hedge against risks. Today's gold prices are certainly positive, and any decline presents a buying opportunity. Personally, Victor is waiting to buy from the upward channel limit, which aligns with the support level from the 34.89 EMA. Gold is expected to reach $3,000 by the end of February.
there is a good carry trade in combination with a good trading positions.
We are seeing gold consistently printing bullish candles on our weekly time frame, and if we look closer we are currently forming a third wave extension of third wave extension of a fifth wave extension. to make it more simple we are receiving continuous market acceptance with price going up that sustained the uptrend gold is creating, supporting the idea of multiple wave extensions we have a "throw-under" seen on the fourth wave which gives us higher probability of breaking above the channel.
The Market at a Crossroads: Can URUSDT Hold the Line? URUSDT is teetering at a critical juncture, trading at $0.002823, just a fraction above its all-time low of $0.002749, set only hours ago. With a staggering -96.54% decline from its absolute high of $0.08169, the market is flashing warning signals— but does this mean a final breakdown or an imminent reversal? Momentum indicators paint a grim picture. RSI(14) at 21.2 suggests extreme oversold conditions, yet buyers remain hesitant. The MFI(60) at 31.06 indicates weak buying pressure, with no signs of immediate capital influx. Moreover, URUSDT remains well below its MA50 of $0.003751, showing no strength for a breakout just yet. Adding to the uncertainty, recent pattern sequences show increased sell volumes dominating the order flow, particularly in the last 24 hours. The last notable VSA Buy Pattern failed to spark a lasting move, signaling hesitation among bulls. So, what’s next? Will the market finally capitulate, or is this a once-in-a-lifetime entry point before a strong rebound? The next 24 hours are crucial— traders must watch if URUSDT can reclaim key resistance levels near $0.003357 - $0.003543, or risk another leg down. This is the moment of truth. Are you ready for what comes next? ?? Roadmap: The Battle Between Bulls and Bears in URUSDT Tracking recent price action in URUSDT, we've seen a high-stakes tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, with key volume spikes defining the trend. Let’s break down the roadmap based on confirmed pattern movements, filtering out the noise and focusing on the setups that played out as expected. February 21, 19:00 UTC – VSA Buy Pattern Extra 1st (Bullish Confirmation!) The first big signal came with a VSA Buy Pattern Extra 1st, suggesting a potential trend reversal after prolonged selling pressure. The pattern didn’t have a defined trigger point, but the immediate price movement confirmed bullish strength. URUSDT opened at $0.003991, closed slightly lower at $0.003949, but quickly climbed in the next bars, reaching $0.0041, aligning with the expected upward move. February 21, 21:00 UTC – Increased Sell Volumes (Bearish Reversal Hits Hard!) Just as bulls started to gain momentum, the market hit a wall with a Sell Volumes pattern. The price reacted aggressively, opening at $0.004068, closing at $0.003968, and testing a low of $0.003848. This confirmed the pattern’s bearish call, as the next bars saw URUSDT struggle to recover. February 21, 22:00 UTC – VSA Buy Pattern 4 (A Fakeout or the Real Deal?) The market attempted a bullish comeback with VSA Buy Pattern 4, a classic setup for large-range upward moves. Opening at $0.003968, the pattern suggested that price should hold above its low $0.003848 before pushing higher. The subsequent candle action validated the buy direction, with URUSDT climbing past $0.004004, hitting resistance at $0.004046. February 22, 10:00 UTC – VSA Sell Pattern 2 (Bears Take Control Again!) After the brief bull rally, sellers took back control. The VSA Sell Pattern 2 projected downward movement if price failed to hold above $0.004352. True to the script, URUSDT dropped from $0.004266 to $0.004215, signaling further downside pressure. This was a key validation of the bearish play. February 22, 15:00 UTC – Buy Volumes Max (Short-Lived Bullish Breakout) An influx of buy orders momentarily turned the tables, with a Buy Volumes Max pattern emerging. Opening at $0.004228, URUSDT soared to $0.004415. However, the failure to sustain above the high of $0.004432 indicated that bulls lacked follow-through, making this a temporary bounce rather than a trend shift. February 22, 18:00 UTC – VSA Sell Pattern 1 (The Breakdown Begins!) One of the strongest confirmations came with the VSA Sell Pattern 1, signaling a high-probability drop. URUSDT had a brief consolidation before falling from $0.004402 to $0.004316, with lows testing $0.00417. This reinforced the overall bearish momentum that had been building up since the Sell Volumes Max setup. What’s Next? Key Takeaways The roadmap reveals a market still favoring the bears, with every bullish attempt getting slammed by increased sell pressure. The next critical level to watch is whether URUSDT can hold above $0.002823, its current price floor. If bulls fail to defend this zone, we could be looking at another downward leg before any significant recovery. Traders, are you ready for the next move? The market is setting up, and the next few days will tell whether URUSDT finds support or faces another sell-off. Stay sharp! ?? Technical & Price Action Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Price is king, and levels don’t lie. URUSDT is trading at a make-or-break zone, and traders should have these key levels on their radar. If these supports don’t hold, they’ll flip into resistance—just like we’ve seen before in weak bounces. Let’s break it down: Support Levels (If These Crack, They Become New Resistance!) $0.002823 – The last line of defense, sitting right above the fresh absolute low of $0.002749. If this level collapses, the downside can get ugly fast. $0.003357 – A mid-range pivot where buyers could step in. Lose this level? Expect it to be a tough wall for the bulls to break later. $0.003543 – Another reaction zone; failure to hold means this turns into a major shorting area. Resistance Levels (Bulls Need to Smash These to Flip Sentiment) $0.003543 – First checkpoint for any relief rally; expect a fight here. $0.004163 – Major level; a breakout could trigger FOMO, but rejection = more downside. $0.004898 – If price gets here, momentum traders will start paying attention. $0.006186 – The final boss. A reclaim of this level could mean trend reversal, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Powerful Support Levels (The Ultimate Make-or-Break Zones) $0.0079 – If price ever recovers here, it’s game-changing. Until then, just a dream. $0.02335 – Long-term traders have this in sight for macro accumulation, but it’s far out of reach for now. Powerful Resistance Levels (Untested but Crucial for Long-Term Trend Shifts) No clear powerful resistance levels—why? Because price hasn’t been able to get off the floor. If any of the above resistance zones break, we’ll start identifying new supply areas up the chain. Final Take Right now, support is fragile, and resistance is strong—the worst combo for bulls. If these key levels don’t hold, expect them to become liquidity traps where sellers reload shorts. Stay disciplined, keep an eye on the order flow, and don’t chase fake breakouts. ?? Trading Strategies with Rays: Ride the Momentum Like a Pro The VSA Rays mapped on the chart act as dynamic guide rails, shaping price movement with Fibonacci-based angles. These aren't static lines—rays adapt to new market conditions, forming high-probability trade zones where price is likely to react. Our job? Identify the reaction and catch the move from ray to ray. Price will either reject or break through a ray, and once it starts moving, we trade from one key level to the next. Here’s how to play it smart: Optimistic Scenario (Breakout & Momentum Play) If URUSDT reclaims lost ground, key levels will start flipping bullish, allowing for trend continuation trades: Entry at $0.003357 (First major resistance, potential ray interaction) Target 1: $0.003543 (Next ray level, a solid take-profit zone) Target 2: $0.004163 (If momentum sustains, a strong Fibonacci extension area) Target 3: $0.004898 (Key resistance to watch, high R:R potential) ? Confirmation: Look for a reaction at the 50-day MA ($0.003751). A breakout above confirms bullish bias. Pessimistic Scenario (Fade the Rally & Short the Breakdown) If the market fails to hold key support and gets rejected from resistance rays, we trade the downside: Entry at $0.003357 (Short after a failed breakout) Target 1: $0.002823 (The last meaningful support before collapse) Target 2: $0.002749 (New absolute low, potential liquidity flush) Target 3: $0.002500 (If sell pressure continues, extended short) ? Confirmation: Watch for rejection off the 233-day MA ($0.004677)—if price gets slapped here, bears are in control. Trade Opportunities Based on Ray Interactions Ray to Ray Swing Trade: Enter after price interacts with a ray and confirms direction. Target the next ray in sequence. Break & Retest Play: If price clears a major resistance ray, wait for the retest to enter long. If it fails to hold, fade the move. Momentum Scalps: If price bounces hard off a support ray, grab quick profits at the next short-term resistance. Liquidity Hunt Strategy: If price sweeps below $0.002749 and reclaims quickly, it’s a classic stop-run reversal—jump in long. Final Take URUSDT is a game of levels, and VSA rays are the navigation system. The strategy is simple—trade level to level, wait for confirmation, and ride momentum like a sniper, not a gambler. ?? Alright, now it’s your turn—what’s your take on this setup? Drop your thoughts, questions, or alternative scenarios in the comments, and let’s break it all down together. Trading is all about learning, adapting, and spotting the right moves before they happen. If this idea resonates with you, hit that Boost and save it to check back later—watch how price respects these levels and moves along the rays. This is the key to refining your entries and understanding where the real trades happen. My indicator automatically maps out all the VSA Rays and levels in real-time, but it’s currently Private. If you’re interested in using it, send me a DM—we’ll figure something out. Got a different asset you want analyzed? No problem! I can chart anything—some ideas I’ll share publicly, while others can be private if you prefer. If there’s a specific market you need mapped, Boost this post and drop a request in the comments—I’ll check it out when I can. And of course, if you want more of this kind of deep-dive analysis, follow me here on TradingView—this is where all my setups go live. Let’s trade smart and make it happen. ??
I have been wanting to put my thoughts on the historic tends observed in the S&P500 in a post for some time and decided to focus this discussion on the relationship observed between S&P 500: * Bull Flag runs (~17 to 25) years in length * Consolidation Period (~13 to 15) years in length * 27 Period (2 Monthly) SMA - Aqua Colored Line * RSI NOTE: Chart is looking at logarithmic price of the S&P500 on the 2 Monthly time period. S&P 500 HISTORY | 27P(2M) SMA, CONSOLIDATION PERIOD & BULL FLAG RUNS SINCE 1943 The below images show 'Consolidation Periods' governed by 'Black Trend Lines', 'Bull Flags' (Orange / Navy / Aqua) governed by colored measured moves between these periods and the 27P(2M) SMA in Aqua. https://www.tradingview.com/x/o5isvyYI/ https://www.tradingview.com/x/saE74hZG/ Key Takeaways for Longterm Investors Key take aways Looking at the S&P 500 from such a zoomed-out perspective: * CONSOLIDATION: Periods of consolidation required investors to proactively manage their investment. A buy and hold approach left investors' money in limbo not doing a lot over these time periods. Investors who could identify the S&P was in a period of consolidation did well by selling at the upper and buying at the lower trend lines once they became apparent. * BULL FLAG: Run periods rewarded the discipline 'Dimond hands' investor, providing key holds at the 27P(2M) SMA and future higher highs. A good strategy during these periods was to accumulate at the 27P(2M) SMA. RSI ANALYSIS As we are currently in a Bull Flag period for the S&P500 (Aqua Measured Moved), lets now look at the relationship between the RSI and price to identify key historic behavior which may be useful with current price behavior. https://www.tradingview.com/x/IFwqR5uR/ It is notable that historically the RSI tends to oscillate between rising and falling channels when exhibiting price Consolidation / Bull Flag price behavior. Bull Flag (1943 to 1968) – 25 years https://www.tradingview.com/x/zJORvKkP/ Focusing on the orange measured move or first Bull Flag period from approximately 1943 to 1968, observable characteristics include: * At the consolidation period price break out, RSI continued to set higher highs until peaking (with the first lower high) at Point 1 - this marked approximately the halfway point of the bull run period. * Retest and hold behavior with the 27P(2M) SMA for the entirety of the run * End of bull run period and start of consolidation period confirmed with price breaking below and first candle open and close below the 27P(2M) SMA at Point 2 . The Stochastic RSI has helped to identify if price is set to put in a higher low during bull flag periods and has been a reliable indicator in confluence with the 27P(2M) SMA. Consolidation Period (1968 to 1983) – 15 Years https://www.tradingview.com/x/6QTrBgOv/ Consolidation period starts at the end of the prior bull flag and confirmed at Point 2 where price has broken below and opened and closed the first candle below the 27P(2M) SMA. This has been marked with the aqua vertical line on the chart. Price is confirmed to have left the consolidation zone once it breaks to the upside of the black trend line (in some cases with a retest). Change in price behavior from ranging to bullish within the consolidation period has been identifiable historically with a break above the 27P(2M) SMA followed up by a retest and holding the 27P(2M) SMA as support. Price has tended to range between the consolidation period trendlines until this price behavior is achieved. The Stochastic RSI has helped to identify if price is set to put in a low during consolidation periods and has been a reliable indicator in confluence with the lower black trend line. It is notable the Momentum Bias Index has printed RED bars on the histogram during all historic consolidation periods reviewed (2 in total) when the bottom of the consolidation period has been set. Similar observations have been observed in the below two future consecutive Macro Bull Flag and Consolidation periods reviewed in this analysis. Bull Flag (1983 to 2000) – 17 years https://www.tradingview.com/x/VTA6c1Zg/ Consolidation Period (2000 to 2013) – 13 years https://www.tradingview.com/x/69zemYvb/ CURRENT PERIOD | WHERE ARE WE NOW? BULL FLAG TO FINISH IN 2030 ESTIMATION? https://www.tradingview.com/x/B8H7Sdwd/ If the S&P 500 is to continue historic trend and continue consecutive Bull Flag / Consolidation periods, this would suggest the current bull flag run could end in 2030 and the next consolidation period would begin. This is based on the same bull flag measured move approach and estimations of the bull flag structures discussed in the prior bull flag / consolidation periods. It is noted that the prior consolidation period (2000 to 2013) left this zone and peaked at the RSI high relatively early compared to prior periods. According to the review of other bull flags this suggests the middle part of the bull flag run occurred in 2015. It is unclear if this would result in a reduced bull flag period run and a material lower high than the measured moved. It is also noted at current prices a retest and hold of the 27P (2M) SMA would result in a 30% drop. A move in the market of this magnitude would result in some interesting news headlines but historically would show nothing out of the ordinary for S&P500 price behaviour.