? The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles™ by FXPROFESSOR Video: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/TLT/fknceEqU-New-era-The-Bitcoin-Trust-Flow-Cycles/ Friends, today I’m sharing what may be the most important Bitcoin framework of 2025. Forget the broken halving expectations. Forget the chaos of macro headlines. What if the real signal has been here all along? What if Bitcoin’s true rhythm follows the capital rotation between itself and the U.S. Treasury market? ? Introducing: The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles™ This is not a model of where Bitcoin could go (like Stock-to-Flow)… This is a model of when and why it moves — based on the trust rotation between U.S. Treasury Bonds (TLT) and Bitcoin. What I’ve found is a repeating structure — not based on supply or halvings, but on macro trust dynamics. ? The Two Core Phases: • Correlated Periods ? (Blue zones): BTC and TLT move together — both rising or falling • Inverted Periods ? (Green zones): BTC and TLT move in opposite directions These aren't random — they're structural rotations that occur at key technical levels in the bond market. ? The Cycle Timeline: Jan 2019 – Feb 2020 → Correlated (pre-COVID calm) Feb 2020 – Sep 2021 → Inverted (Fed QE, Bitcoin moon) Sep 2021 – Nov 2022 → Correlated (everything dumps) Nov 2022 – Oct 2023 → Inverted (TLT collapse, BTC recovers) Nov 2023 – Aug 2024 → Correlated (sideways digestion) Aug 2024 – Now (Apr 2025) → Inverted again — and compressing fast We're now in Period 6 — an Inverted Period — but all signs point to an upcoming Reversion. ? What Happens at Each Flip? These transitions tend to occur when: • TLT hits major channel support or resistance • Macro fear or liquidity shocks drive trust shifts • Smart money starts reallocating across asset classes Right now, TLT is at channel support — a zone that has previously triggered reversions into correlated periods. ? What Comes Next: According to the Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles™: → We are statistically due for a reversion** back into correlation → If TLT bounces from 76–71 zone… BTC may follow — not fight → The target remains: BTC breaking above 115 resistance This flip — from inverse to correlated — has historically marked breakout windows for Bitcoin. ? This Is Bigger Than a Halving Plan B’s Stock-to-Flow gave us valuable insight into long-term valuation. But it doesn’t explain timing. This model isn’t about supply mechanics. It’s about macro trust mechanics. When institutional confidence leaves Treasuries… And enters Bitcoin… That’s the rotation we track. That’s what moves the chart now. ? Watchlist: • TLT support: 76 → 71 zone = reversal signal • BTC breakout trigger: 115 resistance • Cycle shift: Reversion = Bitcoin joining TLT upside If this plays out, it could mark the most important trust cycle breakout we’ve seen since the COVID inversion. Bitcoin doesn’t need permission anymore. It just needs a macro trigger. And this model helps us spot it. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR ? ? Missed the full credit market breakdown? Check my recent posts on BKLN, HYG, LQD, and TLT to understand the full Trust Flow rotation. Forget halving hype. This new model tracks when Bitcoin moves with (?) or against (?) U.S. Treasuries — based on macro trust flows. And right now? We're at the edge of an EPIC reversion.??? ? #Bitcoin #Macro #TrustFlow #TLT CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Chart Observations: Pattern: Price has been forming lower highs, suggesting a descending trendline resistance. There's a visible breakout attempt above this trendline now. Support Zone: Strong demand zone between 46,800 – 48,000, which was respected multiple times. Indicators: RSI is near the overbought zone, but not showing divergence. Volume has spiked on the breakout – bullish confirmation. Heikin Ashi candles are strongly green – good momentum. ✅ Bullish Scenario (If breakout holds): Entry Zone: On retest of the breakout trendline (around 51,500–52,000). Target Levels: Short-term: 53,500 Medium-term: 55,000–56,000 Stop Loss: Below 50,500 ❌ Bearish Scenario (If breakout fails): Invalidation Level: If it closes back below the trendline with high volume. Re-entry zone: Watch the 48,000 support area again. Short Target (if breakdown from support): 46,000–45,000 Swing Traders: Wait for a pullback toward the trendline and enter on bullish confirmation. Positional Traders: Enter partially now, add more on pullback confirmation. Risk Management: Keep positions light until breakout is fully confirmed.
Bybit the second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume together with Block Scholes analytics firm released their latest weekly crypto derivatives report from Dubai United Arab Emirates on April 15 2025. The most recent update explores how Trump administration tariffs climbed higher while generating worldwide market volatility and causing protective measures throughout the crypto derivatives sector […]
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https://www.tradingview.com/x/ioiXU5ZT/ In terms of operation, short selling is still the main strategy, and short selling is still maintained near 3235. It is expected that gold will continue to adjust in the future, and 3200 will most likely be broken today. Today's detailed operation strategy Gold will go long at 3185, defend at 3175, and target 3200-3220 Gold will go short at 3235, defend at 3245, and target 3210-3180 Hello traders, if you have better ideas and suggestions, welcome to leave a message below, I will be very happy
Recent price action in Bitcoin (BTCUSD) suggests an oversold bounce, with resistance capping gains at the 88,000 level. The continuation of selling pressure could extend the downside move, with key support levels at 80,850, followed by 77,500 and 74,420. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 88,000, accompanied by a daily close higher, would invalidate the bearish outlook. In this scenario, Bitcoin could target 90,540, with further resistance at 91,890. Conclusion: The price remains below pivotal level, with 88,000 acting as a key resistance. Failure to break above this level could reinforce downside risks, while a breakout could shift momentum back in favour of bulls. Traders should watch for confirmation signals before positioning for the next move. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Today's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ have been busy forming a BASE and may transition into a moderate rally mode. I believe this move will prompt the SPY to move above the $550 level, potentially targeting $555-565 over the next 48 hours. This upward move could be related to news or Q1:2025 earnings. I don't believe the markets really want to move downward at this time, although I do believe the markets will move into a topping pattern by the end of this week. Gold and Silver are moving into BLANK pattern day, today. Given the fact that we are between rally patterns and the metals charts show a very clear FLAGGING formation (watch my video), I believe we are moving into a FLAG APEX that will prompt a move above $3300 (for Gold) and $33 (for Silver). It's just a matter of time. BTCUSD is still struggling in the Consolidation phase. As I keep suggesting, I believe the next move for Bitcoin is to the downside. But, until we break this consolidation phase, price will continue to roll around within the consolidation range. Remember, we are going to be moving back to more normal volatility. So you need to understand these huge daily ranges are going to vanish over the next 3-5+ days. Volatility will likely move back to the 1% to 2.5% range very quickly. Get some.. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Here is my opinion about EUR/NZD , If we checked D T.F & 4H T.F , We will find a lot of confirmations , we will see a daily closure below the previous res and also a very good bearish P.A ( Shooting Star ) Candle , so it`s a very clear confirmation prove that this is a very god res area , so we can wait the price to go back to the same res area and then we can sell with any bearish P.A And targeting 250 Pips . This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
On the daily timeframe CAD JPY is bouncing from a strong support area that has been respected since August 2024. So we will be looking for buying opportunities from the lower timeframe. Check next post for entry setup
AUDUSD Dumped Heavily Recently So it's time to Short it & Go With The Flow HTF Supply Area + CHOCH On LTF Took a short entry, SL Above The Supply Area + Targeting 50% Of the Whole Move