USD/JPY has fallen nearly -2% in two days, and the required central bank divergence between the Fed and BOJ appears to be returning, which could see prices much lower from here. Prices are close to reaching my bearish target at the monthly pivot point (154.60) outlined in yesterday's video, and prices are less than a day's trading-range away from it. Perhaps it can tag that key level today. However, with a bullish RSI (2) divergence on the daily chart, and the 50-day SMA nearby, bears may want to remain nimble. Still, if we see a bounce from the monthly pivot, bears could seek to fade into minor rallies within Thursday's range in anticipation of a move down towards the 1534 handle. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Short entry at the start of resistance. To enter or not depends on price action. Planned this trade using the daily chart. Target is the gap on the daily which also happens to be around were the 1hr 20ema is.
Virtual protocol completed a strong correction from $5.1 to $2.2. The price fell to the key Fib zone (Blue Fib line in the chart) bounced up with a strong bullish candle formation in the 4H chart. The price broke and closed above the descending parallel channel as well as Fib 0.236 (orange Fib line in the chart). As I mentioned in my last article, when the price breaks above Fib 0.236, there is a good probability it continues to move to Fib 0.5-0.618 area. If it only reaches 0.382 and retraced back down, it usually means that it is a continuation of the bear trend (at least in my past observation.) In this case, the price shot up to Fib 0.618 but now it is pulling back. Given that there are two layers of sell blocks sitting above the Fib 0.618 area, there is no surprise the price is coming now. All momentum indicators in the 4H chart have reached the overbought territory and are moving downwards. However, both Daily and 4H MACD are way above 0, so I interpret it as the dominant trend is bullish but it is a correction phase. If the price is going to move in the classic style, I anticipate it is likely to oscillate between $3-$4 range. And once the 4H momentum indicators reset and start to move upwards, it is going to start another leg up to and beyond the previous ATH. There are many "IF". It all depends on when Bitcoin decides its decisive move. But my overall bias for Virtual and crypto market in general is very bullish. I have been holding Virtual last year (purchase price is about $0.50) and I haven't sold any. I might start taking profit in stages when the daily MACD or RSI starts to form a clear negative divergence.
Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture, facing channel resistance and hidden bearish divergence on the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator. For this bearish signal to be invalidated, the price must break above $102,727. However, buyers have not shown strong support at the current levels, which is essential for a breakout. Without a decisive push from buyers, breaking through this resistance level remains uncertain. Bullish Momentum Despite the challenges, I remain fairly bullish on Bitcoin’s outlook. Every dip is being aggressively bought, as evidenced by the swift recovery from the $90,000 drop, which was absorbed in just two days. This robust buy-up indicates strong bullish momentum and significant interest from market participants. Understanding Bearish Sentiment While I maintain a bullish stance, I understand why some traders expect lower prices. Key factors contributing to this sentiment include: CME Gaps: These gaps are often filled, leading some to anticipate a return to lower levels. Fibonacci Retracement: Price has not retraced to the 0.386 Fib level, which is commonly the minimum retracement for a Wave 4 correction in Elliott Wave Theory. Wave 4 Correction: According to Elliott Wave Theory, if a Wave 4 correction hasn’t fully played out, the price needs to break the high of Wave 3 ($108,353) to confirm the end of Wave 4. Until this occurs, the possibility of an incomplete correction remains a consideration. Bullish Case for Bitcoin In the bullish scenario, the recent correction can be classified as a WXY correction, with Wave Y ending at $89,256. Wave C was truncated, meaning it did not fully extend, leading to a shorter-than-expected correction. This suggests that Bitcoin has transitioned into Wave 5, its final upward impulse. Why Wave 5 Matters Wave 5 is particularly significant as it often coincides with the peak of Bitcoin’s rally and the beginning of Alt Season. Historically, this phase sees strong price action, with dips being short-lived and quickly absorbed by buyers. Alts Rally with Bitcoins Wave 5 As you have seen XRP’s recent breakout means its now technically in its bullish Wave 3 lends further credibility to the bullish case. If Bitcoin were to experience further downside, it could drag XRP down, potentially invalidating its wave count. This scenario seems unlikely, given XRP’s strong momentum. Market Catalysts It seems plausible that Bullish Momentum will rally into the inauguration of Donald Trump. Conclusion Bitcoin’s current price action suggests a strong bullish momentum despite some underlying bearish signals. While caution is warranted due to the hidden OBV divergence and incomplete retracement patterns, the aggressive dip-buying and transition into Wave 5 paint an optimistic picture. The key levels to watch are $102,727 for invalidating bearish signals and $108,353 for confirming the end of Wave 4. For now, the dips are opportunities, and the path forward looks promising for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Buy signal triggered yesterday when I added a small position. I increased it today after seeing confirmation. It's moving okay with volatility contraction. I am betting we will see a volume spike that will bring price up faster. It's not a high risk trade and the back tests stats are good, so why not? Plus, I like the company :) GTLB also seems to be undervalued. I will probably get out before the "average days in trade" from the back tests.
Take a look at this comparison between Dogecoin (left) and XRP (right). Both charts reveal strikingly similar market structures, signaling bullish momentum on the horizon. Here’s why this is exciting: 1️⃣ Doge’s Path to a New High Doge has formed a strong foundation and is approaching a key breakout zone. With its current structure, it's poised to challenge previous highs and potentially crack into uncharted territory. The momentum is building, and the structure shows all the right signs of continuation. 2️⃣ XRP Breaking Through Barriers XRP, on the other hand, has already broken a significant level (previous highs) and is solidifying its position for the next leg up. This kind of structure often leads to a strong continuation, especially when paired with broader market trends. 3️⃣ Why Structure Matters The similarities between these two assets highlight the importance of understanding market structure. It’s not just about trendlines; it’s about identifying key levels, observing how price reacts, and anticipating the next move based on solid data. ? The Bigger Picture Both Doge and XRP are showcasing bullish strength on higher timeframes. As these assets continue to climb, they’re reinforcing the idea that patience and understanding structure are key to navigating the market. ? Conclusion If you’re watching these assets closely, this is your reminder that the market moves in cycles. Understanding structure and staying updated with key levels can make all the difference. Will Doge and XRP both achieve their next highs? The charts suggest it’s only a matter of time.
? XVGUSDT is entering a new D1 cycle – A great opportunity for short-to-mid-term gains! ? ? Market Overview: XVGUSDT is showing strong bullish potential on the D1 timeframe. This creates a strategic entry to capitalize on the upward movement once the bottom is confirmed. ? Trade Plan: ? Entry Point: Around $0.0088 or near that level after forming a clear bottom on D1. With Indicator: Use your trusted setup to confirm the entry for optimal precision. ? Target: 100% gain from the bottom – Targeting a significant profit based on the market's performance. ⏳ Hold Time: 2–3 weeks – Perfectly aligned with the projected D1 cycle. ? Note: Combine the suggested price point with your indicator setup to ensure precise entry. Stay flexible and adjust your strategy as the market evolves. ? XVGUSDT is gearing up – Don’t miss this short-to-mid-term trading opportunity! ?
You all remember my US30 which hit 'Take Profit' & secured us 8,800 PIPS (26% ROI)?? 5 Wave Bullish Move Complete. What's your current bias on US30 long term?
I'm planning to enter a long trade on gold. I believe this move will break previous highs and create the high of the week
BTC Long Trigger Update (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/u96mz9Fd-BTC-Long-Trigger-Update-TP-50-re-entry/) If you took the long from the demand zone highlighted in the previous posts (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/edZlpaAs-BTC-4h-rejection-from-local-SZ-bounce-from-DZ-w-liq-sweep/), this 100k level serves as an ideal first take profit and looking for a re entry lower. Entry Setup: I am currently focusing on a potential entry between 95k–96.5k, setting a tight stop-loss at 94.2k to manage risk effectively. If the price dips below this area but quickly reclaims it, I will treat this as a fakeout and look to re-enter on confirmation of strength. This reclaim would signal that buyers are defending the level, aligning with the bullish thesis. Demand Zone Outlook: Although there is a possibility that we may revisit the demand zone highlighted in my previous BTC analysis, the 200 EMA continues to rise, gradually catching up with the price action. The longer and higher BTC holds above this EMA, the shallower the pullback into the demand zone is likely to be. Trade Strategy: Entry Zone: Ideally DCA into the 95.5k area. Stop-Loss: 94.2k. Leverage: 10x for an approximate +15% targeted move to the upside with 1% downside. TP: If you entered from the lower demand zone, taking profit at this level is logical, as it aligns with the supply zone and midrange resistance. Adding to the long in the highlighted box upon confirmation can maximize the trade’s potential as we aim for higher targets, including the ATH. Market Context: The market has shown resilience, with BTC hovering firmly above key levels. However, given the high volatility expected in the coming sessions, I am maintaining a disciplined entry plan. If the price action aligns with my conditions, this trade will offer a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Conclusion: Securing gains at this level is a calculated approach, while planning for a re-entry aligns with current strength. The broader market structure suggests continuation, but patience remains key to executing effectively. As always, execution will depend on confirmation of the triggers, ensuring I remain aligned with the current market dynamics and not biased.