During the 7 Apr 2025 Session, the Swing Highs and Lows of the day (XA,AB,BC) formed Points A,B and C which satisfy the Harmonic Ratios. Hence, consequently Point D is likely to follow after. A liquidity sweep can potentially occur at Point X, which adds extra confluence to this Trading Setup. Hence, waiting for this to occur is more ideal, and provides us with better Risk:Reward. Due to time symmetries, Point D should be printed before 5pm 5 Apr 2025 (UTC+1)
English : According to our analysis, we anticipate a bearish scenario. Morocan Darija : kanchofo d'apres l'analyse dyalna antsanaw hboot ATENTION : I only share my ideas, not signals
Trade is fairly simple here. Go long treasuries and if it breaks down cut. - A bounce and push back up could be another ugly catalyst for the US stock market. - A breakdown however would push yields up (and economic growth forecasts) which would be quite bullish for stocks especially down at these levels
English : According to our analysis, we anticipate a bullish scenario. Morocan Darija : kanchofo d'apres l'analyse dyalna antsanaw Tloo3 ATENTION : I only share my ideas, not signals
? Feed: OANDA | Style: SMC + PA + Macro | Bias: Bearish corrective → bullish potential ? MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT ? Post-NFP volatility fading, but CPI data is around the corner (watch Thursday). ⚔️ Tensions remain: Iran-Israel on edge, U.S. tariffs discourse ramping up again. ? DXY showing weakness; risk-on tone brewing quietly. ?️ Gold’s structure still bearish short-term after rejection from 3135, but sitting on a higher timeframe discount. ? Summary: Market is hunting liquidity — bulls want discount, bears want premium. Let’s follow smart money. ? STRUCTURAL RECAP (D1 → M15) ? D1/H4 Trend: Bearish correction after sweep of 3135; internal structure printing LHs and LLs. ? H1: Clean reaction from 2965, struggling to reclaim 3022 flip. ? M15: Price hovering in FVG zone after failing to break 3005. ? SELL ZONE #1 – “Flip Rejection” ? 3015–3022 ? Why: Flipped support → resistance + H1 OB + FVG fill ? RSI near overbought + EMA21 rejection ? TP1: 2971 | TP2: 2959 | TP3: 2928 ? SL: 3030 ? NY session sniper if price retraces up with weakness ? SELL ZONE #2 – “Breaker Retest” ? 3045–3055 ? Why: M15–H1 OB + imbalance fill from previous BOS ? Liquidity grab probable during London ? TP1: 3015 | TP2: 2971 | TP3: 2943 ? SL: 3065 ? Look for CHoCH on 5M or weak engulfing M15 ? SELL ZONE #3 – “Premium Liquidity” ? 3094–3109 ? Why: D1/H4 OB + unmitigated FVG + resting equal highs ? Textbook supply raid + swing short ? TP1: 3055 | TP2: 3015 | TP3: 2965 ? SL: 3122 ? Only if CPI or USD weakens too fast and gold overextends ? BUY ZONE #1 – “Discount Tap” ? 2965–2950 ? Why: H1 demand + FVG + trendline bounce ? RSI recovery + bullish CHoCH M15 ? TP1: 2990 | TP2: 3022 | TP3: 3044 ? SL: 2948 ? Classic LTF confirmation needed, ideal during Asia-London transition ? BUY ZONE #2 – “Last OB Before Break” ? 2922–2904 ? Why: Unmitigated Daily OB + final imbalance ? Psychological trap zone if swept ? TP1: 2943 | TP2: 2982 | TP3: 3022 ? SL: 2890 ? Reversal setup if price flushes heavy overnight ? BUY ZONE #3 – “Extreme Discount Play” ? 2885–2894 ? Why: Breaker + extreme OB + fib 0.786 ? Liquidity grab scenario with high RR ? TP1: 2950 | TP2: 3000 | TP3: 3050 ? SL: 2870 ? Watch for fast reversal candle + LTF CHoCH ⚔ SCALPING ZONE – (For early Asia Play) ? 2988–2995 ? Target: 2965 ? SL: 3000 ? M15 micro OB. If rejected fast, quick drop likely. ? BIAS & SESSION GAMEPLAN ? Bearish bias below 3022 ? NY session → ideal for short from premium zones ? London → volatility trap around 3010–3022 ? Asia → potential grab under 2965 before reversal ? FINAL NOTES All entries require confirmation (CHoCH / engulfing) — don’t front-run price. Don’t fight the structure — trade with it, not against it. This isn’t wizardry — just logic, patience, and risk control. ? Structure first. Emotions later. Gold gave a clean bounce from 2965, but the battlefield isn’t done yet. Sniper setups mapped for both NY rejection and deeper retracements. No guessing, no FOMO. Just structure, SMC, and pure execution. ? Drop your bias below ? ❤️ Like if you value structure > noise ? Follow for daily sniper entries #XAUUSD #SmartMoney #SniperPlan #LiquidityZones #FVG #GoldTraders #GoldFXMinds
As you can see, MFI hit overbought before open. Unfortunately, I didn't have time to post before work. Stupid algos pumping before bad news again, they even pumped China, so I bought some MCHI (China ETF) puts in the morning. WHy would anyone pump CHina before a tariff announcement?!?! I don't see Xi or Trump backing down, if anyone falters, it'll be COngress. The issue is that it will take a 2/3 majority in both houses to override a veto, so they probably won't be able to muster up enough support until next week at the earliest Then Trump can sit on the bill for 10 days before he vetos. There's not a parts supplier in China that's gonna pay 104% tariff, which means stop ship on everything. And we're looking at bare minimum of 11 days before tariffs can be repealed, probably gonna be at least 3 weeks. Even at that pace, it's gonna create a shipping backlog, empty shelves, parts shortage, and temporary layoffs at manufacturing plants just like COVID did. What's this all mean? IF YOU NEED ANYTHING THAT'S MADE IN CHINA, GO SHOPPING RIGHT NOW! I'm not kidding. It may cause issues even with stuff like frozen dinners because China makes all of the containers. ANyways, the algos screwed up again. RSI probably goes deep into oversold again. We get a huge ass bounce when COngress gets their shit together in a week or two. Even then, some companies will have lingering effect because I can guarantee there will be a shipping backlog when the tariff is lifted.
NVIDIA (NVDA) just got rejected at the top of a falling wedge channel on the 1H chart and is showing clear signs of continued bearish pressure. After testing a key resistance around the $102–$103 zone, price has sharply reversed and is now threatening to revisit lower trendline levels. Market Structure & SMC Insight: * NVDA remains in a strong downtrend with price confined in a descending wedge. * There was no confirmed CHoCH (Change of Character) or BOS (Break of Structure) indicating strength—only a lower high rejection. * A red resistance zone remains around $103.70, while major support lies around $86.74. * MACD is curling down after a bearish cross. * Stoch RSI is pointing lower from the mid-zone, signaling more downside may be ahead. * Volume has increased on this rejection, giving the move more credibility. TrendInfo Sentiment Summary: * MA: Bearish (-2.21%) * DMI: Bearish (38.33) * RSI, MACD, Stoch: All showing bearish confirmation. * DPR (Directional Pressure Ratio): Bearish (43.5%) * Fear & Greed: Fear (-15.78), overall Sell rating of 75%. This suggests that short-term traders are risk-off and sentiment is skewed toward more downside. Options GEX Analysis (Gamma Exposure & Sentiment): https://www.tradingview.com/x/wiXznBlS/ * Current GEX shows strong PUT dominance at 28%, aligning with a bearish directional expectation. * IV Rank (IVR) at 107.2 with IVx avg at 108.7 indicates high volatility; premiums are rich, great for credit spreads or directional put plays. * Key Put Support at $90 with heavy GEX clustering below. This is your downside magnet. * Call resistance sits near $102–$105 range, aligning with the recent rejection. Gamma walls at $108–$111 cap the upside. Trade Scenarios: Bearish Scenario: * Rejection confirmed. If NVDA breaks $94 again, a fast drop to $90 and even $86 support is on the table. * Put Options with strikes at $90 or debit spreads can work well. * Watch for continuation volume confirmation. Bullish Reversal Setup (Low Probability for Now): * Needs a reclaim of $103.70 with volume. * A CHoCH + strong bullish candle would trigger potential upside targets of $108 and $111. * Call debit spreads or long shares only if reversal is confirmed. My Thoughts: NVDA continues to reflect sector-wide weakness in semis. Without strong market support, the path of least resistance remains down. Given the macro volatility and sentiment tilt toward fear, it's wise to position conservatively and trade with tight risk. Final Suggestion: * Put Bias Active * Avoid heavy call exposure unless reclaim of $103 occurs * Sell premium if IV stays elevated (e.g. credit spreads) Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
USOIL Long Setup Analysis: Targeting $69 with Bullish Momentum Technical Analysis: The current price action shows USOIL trading at $70.51, demonstrating a recovery from a key liquidity pool zone. Technical indicators support this bullish outlook, with the 50-day SMA at 69.34 and 200-day EMA at 69.32, creating a strong foundation for upward momentum. The RSI reading of 57.82 indicates growing bullish momentum without being overbought, suggesting room for further upside. The ATR value of 0.29257 shows significant volatility, which could facilitate quick price movements toward our target. Fundamental Drivers: Several fundamental factors support this bullish setup: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are creating potential supply disruption concerns, which supports higher prices in the near term. OPEC+ production cuts are maintained through December, providing a floor for prices and supporting the bullish case. This supply constraint helps maintain price stability and potential upward pressure. The EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook projects tighter market conditions, with prices expected to average $75 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025, supporting our bullish thesis. Sentiment Analysis: Market sentiment indicators provide additional confirmation: Institutional positioning through COT reports shows significant activity from large speculators and hedge funds, indicating strong institutional interest in the market. Analysts maintain a bullish outlook, forecasting Brent crude to average $80 per barrel in Q4 2024, suggesting broader market confidence in higher prices. The combination of technical indicators and fundamental factors has created a positive sentiment environment, supported by institutional outlooks derived from market reports. Price Target Rationale: The $69 target is well-supported by: Technical support from the 50-day SMA (69.34) and 200-day EMA (69.32) EIA's forecast of $68 per barrel, providing a fundamental basis The current price action showing recovery from support levels with increasing momentum Market structure suggesting potential for continued upward movement Risk Considerations:Monitor potential market surplus projected for early 2025 Watch for changes in OPEC+ compliance with production cuts Keep track of geopolitical developments that could impact price volatility Consider the impact of China's economic recovery on demand dynamics This setup provides a balanced risk-reward opportunity, supported by technical, fundamental, and sentiment factors, with clear support levels and upside potential aligned with major forecasts.
British Pound has been in a strong downtrend channel, broke out and moving in an ascending Trendline structure to the upside, so we'll see how market plays out
2000-2011 Nasdaq managed to lose 93% of its value in real terms. It can happen all over again. Don't say I did not warn you.