Not a single macro portfolio manager was fired for adding gold to their portfolio over the last two years. Such has been gold’s stunning performance. Will Gold’s ascent continue? Narratives and numbers signal unstoppable and solid bull run in gold for now. BULL CASE REMAINS INTACT AND IS INTENFISYING This paper will not delve much into fundamentals. We have covered it previously in Gold to Shine Bright on Fundamentals, Seasonality & Sentiments . In that we highlighted the three main forces at play: (a) Continued central bank purchases, (b) Rising consumer demand in China & India, and (c) Trump administration’s fiscal policies favouring gold. In addition to the above, US Dollar weaponization, De-dollarisation fears, and Tariff tensions, serve as additional tailwinds. TradingView Wizard, Konhow , has comprehensively covered the historical impact of tariffs on Gold in his recent paper and video . SENTIMENTS HAVE SURRENDERED IN FAVOR OF RISING GOLD This research note will not dive into the weeds of technical analysis either. TradingView’s Technical Analysis dashboard summarises it all elegantly. https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZQjancJn/ TradingView Momentum is in favour. Oscillators are neutral indicating little risk of price reversal. Overall, sentiment remains bullish gold. https://www.tradingview.com/x/xz90H6eN/ Gold prices as represented by CME Micro Gold Futures front month contract formed a golden cross on 10th January 2025. Since then, prices are up 8.5% as of 13th February 2025. Current prices are well above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day DMAs. https://www.tradingview.com/x/zUwkl8W4/ RSI is in overbought zone. Expect some pull back in gold prices from time to time on profit taking. But the upward trend is undeniable. The MACD shows that Gold momentum continues to be on the rise but with waning bullishness. Readers can access the entire library of technical ideas focussing on Gold on TradingView’s Gold Ideas Page ideas page . OPTIONS MARKETS ARE SIGNALLING A SOLID BULL RUN AHEAD This paper aims to unpack recent activity in CME gold options market and its impact on prices. No contrary signals there either. Options market also signal bullish gold. QuikStrike is a free-to-use tool for registered participants on the CME Group website. The tool provides a vast range of analytics to guide portfolio managers & traders to better comprehend the underlying market. Each report comes with a helpful user-guide to describe the data covered within the report. Some key takeaways below: Open Interest Profile page shows that as of close of markets on 11th February 2025, total call open interest (“OI” for short) stood at 634,815 lots across all expiries and strikes. Aggregate put IO totalled up to 357,305 lots resulting in a put-call ratio (p/c ratio) of 0.56. Calls are options contract that represent a bullish view. While puts are contracts representing bearish outlook. At 0.56 p/c ratio, there are twice as many bullish positions for each bearish one. https://www.tradingview.com/x/SfpDlGy6/ Source: CME QuikStrike Most Active Strikes allow portfolio managers and traders to analyse top strikes with shifts in open interest. Table below shows top 10 strikes registering the largest change in open interest between 4th February and 11th February. Starting first with the Calls (left section of the table below), participants have been building up open interest in strikes 4000, 3200, 3250, 4500, 4032, and 3,975. Call options have also booked reduction in open interest at strikes 3000, 3075, 3100 and 3025. On a net-basis, open interest is up 10,312 lots across these top ten strikes over various expiries this year. https://www.tradingview.com/x/a6ZNEdXD/ Source: CME QuikStrike Puts (right section of the table above) shows rising build up in open interest for strikes ranging from 2740 to 2880. Collectively, this indicates that market participants are rooting for gold prices to rise through USD 3,000/oz and to even rally past USD 4,500/oz. Will that happen? Only time will tell. Given that risk managers are establishing puts at such high levels point to strong support for gold prices at current levels. In a nutshell, current prices are not only formidably comfortable but the potential to rise is also highly probable. Shifting the attention to volatility, the CME Group also offers CVol which is another free-to-use tool. Portfolio managers and traders can visualise implied volatility behaviour on this tool. https://www.tradingview.com/x/mP19lRMV/ Source: CME CVol The GCVL which is the Gold CVol index shows implied volatility at 17.65 and with a positive skew of 1.08. Implied volatility easing even at an elevated prices indicates that market participants are comfortable at current price levels and do not foresee immediate large price moves. Skew on the CVol tool is defined as Up Var minus Down Var. Up Var is the likelihood of the price rising while Down Var measures the likelihood of prices falling. A positive skew shows that the market is pricing a higher likelihood of rising prices relative to a down move. FUND FLOWS INTO GOLD ETF IS UP 47% YOY Among its rich set of features, TradingView also shows daily ETF fund flows . GLD is the prominent ETF commanding assets under management (AUM) of USD 80.65 billion. https://www.tradingview.com/x/uZDpHhGp/ This time last year, GLD ETF showed AUM of USD 54.77 billion. Fund inflows have spiked 47.25% over the past 12 months. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP With fundamentals, sentiment, options market, and fund flows all pointing to a price that is set to rise, this paper posits a long position using CME Micro Gold Futures expiring on 28th April 2025 (MGCJ2025) based on the following entry, exit levels and the reward-to-risk ratio: • Entry: USD 2,900/oz • Target: USD 3,100/oz • Stop: USD 2,800/oz • P&L at Target (USD per lot): +2,000 ((3,100 – 2,900) x 10) • P&L at Stop (USD per lot): -1,000 ((2,800 – 2,900) x 10) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2x https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q5eyh69E/ Please note that Each Micro Gold Futures contract provides an exposure to 10 troy ounces. Both standard-sized gold futures (GC) and the newly launched 1-ounce gold futures offer avenues to express bullish sentiment on the yellow metal. This comprehensive suite of gold futures is tailored to enhance flexibility and precision, empowering investors to capitalize on market opportunities effectively. CME Group lists a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers. Portfolio managers can learn more on how to access these micro products by visiting CME Micro Products page on CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures. https://www.tradingview.com/x/g26gPE6T/ In collaboration with the CME Group, TradingView has launched The Leap trading competition. New and upcoming traders can hone and refine their trading skills, test their trading strategies, and feel the thrill of futures trading with a vibrant global community through this paper trading competition sponsored by CME Group using virtual money and real time prices. https://www.tradingview.com/x/irX1DJp4/ The competition lasts another 15-days. Please join the 48,000+ others who are actively honing their trading skills using virtual money. Click here to learn more. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
BINANCE:POPCATUSDT.P is testing trend resistance on the 4H timeframe. A sharp approach and a false breakdown of the upper boundary of the channel may provoke a correction or continuation of the decline The global trend is downtrend, the locational trend also coincides with the global trend. Bitcoin cannot become a bullish driver for altcoins yet. Yesterday's economic news also had a negative impact on the market. In addition, the cryptocurrency community was betting big on Trump, but he has put cryptocurrencies on the back burner. Technically, POPCAT is testing the channel resistance with a false breakout within the downtrend. Consolidation of the price below 0.322 could trigger further selling. Resistance levels: 0.322, correction resistance Support levels: 0.2386, 0.1596 I do not exclude the possibility of retesting the resistance of the correction channel, but due to bearish pressure and weak market the decline may continue. Regards R. Linda!
Morning folks, Last time we were speaking about possible upside bounce to ~102.5K area. But BTC has failed three attempts to move out from support level where it stands. Despite that upside momentum was not bad. With the recent high CPI on the table and weekly DRPO "Sell" pattern on the back, we suggest that downside action could start at any time. First target will be ~90-92K area just because this is daily oversold. Weekly pattern suggest target around 80-81K. By this reason we do not consider any new intraday longs by far. Besides, on daily chart today we could get bearish grabber that supports adea of 90-92K lows level.
Price was in a strong uptrend, however a double top formation with bearish RSI divergence on hourly time frame hints that bears are trying to assume control of the price action. If the higher low is broken successfully then we can expect a bearish reversal as per Dow theory. Targets are mentioned on the chart.
Invalidation: Weekly close upper than $0.4 with a strong candle
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Uptrend is already confirmed in daily timeframe Expecting 40% bullish wave
Hi traders XAU/USD)buy direction, with a target range from 2912 to 2940. Is this related to a particular time frame or chart setup, such as daily or hourly? Let me know if you'd like more insights or help interpreting this! Trend Outlook Entry Point 2912 Take Profit 2940 Here is Gold Today Target.
Good Day We have been tracking bullishness on stock indices closely since September of 2024. Herewith profits levels on the JSE Top 40 based on yearly pivots. Should we hit 96200 this year ill close down this position entirely, after take profit 1 should it be taken, trail stops will be implemented, Once take profit 2 has been taken stop will be moved to take profit 1 level. From there on its risky to hold.
Early in the American session, gold is trading around 2,916, below the 21 SMA, and within the bullish trend channel forming since January 20. If the bearish trend prevails in the next few hours, we expect gold to reach the bottom of the bullish trend channel around 2,933. This level could offer good support and from that point, we could expect a technical bounce to occur. If the bullish cycle resumes in the next few hours and the price consolidates above 2,916 - 2,923, the outlook could be positive, but it would have to face strong resistance located around 2,936, where the pivot point is located, which could serve as a key level. The current level of 2,916 acts as a strong support. So, we expect a technical bounce to occur in the next few hours. Hence, the instrument could reach 2,909. Below this area, gold could resume the bearish cycle. In the meantime, we will look for opportunities to buy above 2,916, with targets at 2,933 and 2,943. A technical bounce is expected in the next few hours. On the contrary, if the gold price falls below 2,916, the outlook could be negative and it could quickly reach 2,933 . Finally, the price could reach the bottom of the uptrend channel around 2,933. The eagle indicator is showing a positive signal after a strong technical correction. Now the trading volume could resume which could favor the strength of gold.