In daily and weekly charts we can observe this classic RSI bullish divergence pattern. TA tells us this could be a good oppportunity for a long position, but geopolitical context and automotive industry being currently has some tight implications on this ticker.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/u9nD8eBX/ There is a high chance that USDCAD will keep rising next week. A test of the underlined blue support triggered a strong bullish reaction and a breakout of a resistance line of a falling wedge pattern. I think that the pair may rise and reach at least 1.4357 level. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
BTC bearish believe it should drift down to around 67k ish according to price action, and pattern
Based on technical factors there is a Buy position in : ? VANAUSDT ? Buy Now ?Stop loss 5.870 ?Target 6.850 ? R/R 2 ?RISK : 1% We hope it is profitable for you ❤️ Please support our activity with your likes? and comments?
Yo traders - Let’s map out a convexity-based trade scenario using LOAR stock and the April 17, 2025 $75 Call option — currently trading at $1.00, with the stock at $65.97 and only 18 days to expiry. ? Step-by-Step Breakdown: ? 1. Basic Structure You’re buying the LOAR Apr17 $75 call at $1.00. This is a deep OTM bet (~13.7% above current price). You’re betting on a short-term move to $75+, meaning volatility spike or news catalyst. ⚙️ 2. Convexity Setup Convexity means: Small risk, asymmetric reward If LOAR stays flat or dips → you lose $1 per contract If LOAR rips to $80+ → this option could return 5x to 10x+ LOAR Price at Expiry Option Intrinsic Value Profit/Loss $66 (flat) $0 -$1.00 $70 $0 -$1.00 $75 (strike) $0 -$1.00 $77 $2.00 +$1.00 $80 $5.00 +$4.00 (5x) $85 $10.00 +$9.00 (9x) ? 3. Chart + Sentiment Setup Looking at the TradingView chart: Price Action: LOAR is basing around $66 after a steep downtrend — potential reversal pattern Volume is light, but some buy pressure is visible MACD: Appears to be flattening and potentially crossing bullish RSI: ~40s: Oversold-to-neutral zone. Could support upward bounce. Earnings coming up (E icon): Strong potential for a catalyst move This setup enhances convexity, because earnings can produce gap moves that DOTM options profit from disproportionately. ? 4. Convexity Scenario Thesis (Narrative) "LOAR has pulled back hard and is showing signs of base-building. Earnings are in 2–3 weeks. If guidance surprises to the upside — or macro tailwinds hit the sector — a short squeeze or re-rating toward $75–80 could occur. I’m risking $1 per contract for a shot at $5–10. If it doesn’t move, I accept the full loss." This is a classic event-driven convexity play. ⚠️ 5. Risks & Considerations Time decay is brutal: With only 18 days left, theta decay accelerates daily IV Crush post-earnings could hurt even if the stock moves You need a fast, strong move, ideally before or at earnings Position sizing is critical: This is a "lottery ticket" — don’t over-allocate ✅ 6. Ideal for Your Strategy If: You're making many small bets like this across tickers/catalysts You’re not trying to be “right” often, but “big” occasionally You have capital discipline and uncorrelated base assets ? Position Size: Option price = $1.00 per contract You buy 100 contracts of the $75 call Total risk = $100 Each $1.00 move above $75 = $100 profit per $1, since 100 contracts × 100 shares/contract = 10,000 shares exposure ? Upside Payoff Table LOAR Price at Expiry Intrinsic Value Total Payoff Net P&L Return on $100 $65–$74.99 $0.00 $0 -$100 -100% $76 $1.00 $1 × 10,000 = $10,000 +$9,900 +9,900% $77 $2.00 $20,000 +$19,900 +19,900% $80 $5.00 $50,000 +$49,900 +49,900% $85 $10.00 $100,000 +$99,900 +99,900% $90 $15.00 $150,000 +$149,900 +149,900% $100 $25.00 $250,000 +$249,900 +249,900% ? Interpretation Max Loss: $100 (fixed, regardless of LOAR's move down or sideways) Breakeven at Expiry: LOAR must hit $76.00 10x return if LOAR trades just $1 above strike Massive asymmetry — you risk $100 for a shot at $10k–250k if LOAR rips on earnings or news. ? Real-World Considerations: You might exit early if the option spikes in value before expiry (e.g., stock runs to $72 with 5 days left). Liquidity may limit large size fills. Volatility matters: IV spike pre-earnings or a big gap post-earnings increases your chance of profit. ? Convex Payoff Table for LOAR Apr17 $75 Call (100 Contracts, $100 Risk) LOAR Price at Expiry % Move from $65.97 Intrinsic Value Total Payoff Net P&L Return on $100 $65–$74.99 0% to +13.6% $0.00 $0 -$100 -100% $76 +15.2% $1.00 $10,000 +$9,900 +9,900% $77 +17.0% $2.00 $20,000 +$19,900 +19,900% $80 +21.3% $5.00 $50,000 +$49,900 +49,900% $85 +28.9% $10.00 $100,000 +$99,900 +99,900% $90 +36.4% $15.00 $150,000 +$149,900 +149,900% $100 +51.6% $25.00 $250,000 +$249,900 +249,900% ? Takeaway: Even a 15% move turns your $100 into $10,000 — this is why convex trades are so powerful. But the trade-off is probability: the odds of a 15–50%+ move in 18 days are low, which is why risk is capped and position sizing matters.
Gold had a 40.6 % swing last year (12 Months) and closed with 31% gain. Gold this year has already had 17.6 % swing this year in 3 months. It should achieve 50% equality at 3144 which is 20.3%. Can this be sustained? Price has gotten ahead of time. Gold appears to be near the top and should retrace. The information and analysis is for educational purpose and is not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
BTC/USD Forming an Inverted Flag and Pole Pattern – Potential Bearish Signal Current Market Structure: BTC/USD is currently displaying a classic Inverted Flag and Pole pattern, which is a bearish continuation formation indicating that the market may be preparing for a downside move. This pattern typically forms after a strong downward price movement (the pole), followed by a period of consolidation or a slight upward retracement that forms the inverted flag. 1. Formation Breakdown: Pole Formation: The pole was formed after BTC/USD experienced a sharp decline from recent highs, characterized by strong bearish momentum and high volume. This steep price drop signifies increased selling pressure, often triggered by a combination of profit-taking, liquidation of leveraged positions, and macroeconomic uncertainty. Flag Formation: Following the pole, BTC/USD has entered a consolidation phase, creating a slight upward or sideways retracement. This phase forms a channel or wedge-like pattern that slopes slightly upward or horizontally. The flag reflects a temporary pause where buyers attempt to regain control, but the low volume and weak bullish pressure indicate a lack of conviction in sustaining the upward movement. 2. Key Characteristics to Note: Volume Behavior: During the pole formation, volume was significantly high, confirming strong selling interest. In the flag phase, volume has tapered off, suggesting that the upward movement lacks the strength to reverse the previous bearish trend. Resistance and Support Levels: BTC is currently testing the upper boundary of the flag, near the $ resistance. If this level holds and BTC fails to break out, a reversal towards the lower end of the flag is likely, followed by a potential breakdown. Support to watch lies around the $ zone, which aligns with the pole’s base and a potential target for the next bearish leg. 3. Expected Market Behavior: Bearish Continuation Likely: If BTC breaks below the lower boundary of the flag, it is likely to resume its prior bearish trend. The next downside target is typically measured by projecting the length of the pole downward from the breakdown point, potentially bringing BTC to levels around $ . A breakdown with strong volume confirmation would further validate this bearish move. Invalidation Scenario: If BTC breaks above the flag’s resistance zone with convincing volume, the bearish pattern may be invalidated, potentially leading to a retest of higher resistance levels around $ . 4. Market Sentiment and External Factors: Macro Influences: Ongoing concerns regarding regulatory changes, interest rate hikes, and broader economic uncertainty may further weigh on BTC’s price. Trader Behavior: Institutional selling and retail panic could accelerate the downward momentum once the pattern confirms the breakdown. Conclusion: BTC/USD’s current pattern suggests that a period of downside correction is likely. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels closely, along with volume confirmation to assess the next leg of price action. A confirmed breakdown from the flag structure may signal a continuation of the bearish trend, while a breakout above resistance would invalidate the bearish setup.
Daily bias: Bullish due to the 1hr NWOG that was created on Friday Trade info: - Price trades down into 1hr +NWOG - Creates a 5min bull unicorn model - I enter as price trades back down into the breaker block (BB) and target +2r profit - Hits my +2r TP perfectly and falls back down Let me know if this trade review helps and if you want more trade reviews.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2uGMrFnX/ Hey traders, In the today's article, we will discuss 3 types of incredibly accurate setups that you can apply for trading financial markets. 1. Trend Line Breakout and Retest The first setup is a classic trend line breakout. Please, note that such a setup will be accurate if the trend line is based on at least 3 consequent bullish or bearish moves. If the market bounces from a trend line, it is a vertical support. If the market drops from a trend line, it is a vertical resistance. The breakout of the trend line - vertical support is a candle close below that. After a breakout, it turns into a safe point to sell the market from. The breakout of the trend line - vertical resistance is a candle close above that. After a breakout, it turns into a safe point to buy the market from. https://www.tradingview.com/x/jTNy3HQ7/ Take a look at the example. On GBPJPY, the market was growing steadily, respecting a rising trend line that was a vertical support. A candle close below that confirmed its bearish violation. It turned into a vertical resistance . Its retest was a perfect point to sell the market from. 2. Horizontal Structure Breakout and Retest The second setup is a breakout of a horizontal key level. The breakout of a horizontal support and a candle close below that is a strong bearish signal. After a breakout, a support turns into a resistance. Its retest is a safe point to sell the market from. The breakout of a horizontal resistance and a candle close above that is a strong bullish signal. After a breakout, a resistance turns into a support. Its retest if a safe point to buy the market from. https://www.tradingview.com/x/KdnxM16M/ Here is the example. WTI Crude Oil broke a key daily structure resistance. A candle close above confirmed the violation. After a breakout, the broken resistance turned into a support. Its test was a perfect point to buy the market from. 3. Buying / Selling the Market After Pullbacks The third option is to trade the market after pullbacks. However, remember that the market should be strictly in a trend . In a bullish trend, the market corrects itself after it sets new higher highs. The higher lows usually respect the rising trend lines. Buying the market from such a trend line, you open a safe trend-following trade. In a bearish trend, after the price sets lower lows, the correctional movements initiate. The lower highs quite often respect the falling trend lines. Selling the market from such a trend line, you open a safe trend-following trade. https://www.tradingview.com/x/uAQYtwIv/ On the chart above, we can see EURAUD pair trading in a bullish trend. After the price sets new highs, it retraces to a rising trend line. Once the trend line is reached, trend-following movements initiate. What I like about these 3 setups is the fact that they work on every market and on every time frame. So no matter what you trade and what is your trading style, you can apply them for making nice profits. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
The euro against the US dollar once retraced to around 1.0765. Subsequently, it stabilized slightly after the release of the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data for February. Since the year-on-year growth rate of this data exceeded expectations, the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50% for a longer time has intensified. Moreover, the United States is set to impose an additional 25% tariff on imported automobiles starting from April 2nd, which adds more uncertainties to the outlook of the euro. We can focus on the initial resistance level of 1.0850 above. If this level is not breached, one can attempt to short at high levels. Trading strategy: Sell@1.0850 TP:1.0750 Get daily trading signals that ensure continuous profits! With an astonishing 90% accuracy rate, I'm the record - holder of an 800% monthly return. Click the link below the article to obtain accurate signals now!