Tomorrow I m bullish predicting 5 waves UP from here. The oracle in 2000 when the dot.com bubble burst, I wanted to know for sure, before everyone else that a recession is coming. From extensive research I learned the signs of a BEAR market coming. one the flight to quality, traders fearing to buy stocks rush into the 1 year T bill, gold, REITS, sin stocks that never go down in a Recession. Two the technical indicator? The 50 day EMA crossing down and going under the 200 EMA, those born before 2008 or rmember 2000 don't hav. clue what a real reccision is, it is a 50% selloff and lasts years, ys the 50 day EMA crossed below the 200 EMA a few times where you could not be long, but tey were short and soon overrun bu the Elliot Supercycle Bull market is
SPY Slammed After Tariff Shock! Dealer Gamma Trap Accelerates Drop ? ? Context: April 2, 2025 Today’s Trump tariff news set off a panic wave in the market — triggering a sharp sell-off in major indices. SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, lost grip on its HVL ($560) and flushed into a dealer short-gamma zone, where volatility surged as hedging flows flipped bearish. Key Narrative: * Macro shock = Tariff fears * Market wasn’t positioned = IV spike + dealer scrambling * Result = Gamma-driven slide with no call support nearby ? Technical Breakdown – 1H Chart ? Price Action: * SPY broke down from $567-$565 support range. * Panic candle sliced through HVL $560 and continued through $550, tagging $542.20 intraday low. * The entire move below HVL now triggers short-gamma conditions. ? Support Zones: * $544.82 (currently testing) * $542.20 (session low) * Below that? Thin air until $538–$535 zone from macro FVGs. ? Resistance Zones: * $550 = now resistance (2nd PUT Wall) * $555 = 3rd PUT Wall (likely a pause/reload area) * $560 = HVL / Former gamma support flipped resistance ? GEX + Options Sentiment ? Gamma Exposure (GEX): * ? GEX flipped heavily negative under $560. * HVL $560 has collapsed. * Dealers are now short gamma, adding to volatility and forced selling pressure. ? Gamma Risk Zones: * PUT Support at $560 (-86.95% GEX) * Walls stacked at $555 and $550 → now broken * NO significant GEX support until $540 — more room to fall ? Options Oscillator: * IVR 40.8 / IVx Avg 29.3 → Elevated volatility with room to run * PUTS 83.3% dominance = bearish sentiment confirmed * Red Red Blue GEX = maximum dealer pain, negative gamma loop ? Trade Setups Based on Current Conditions ? Bearish Breakdown (Primary Bias) * Entry: Under $543 (below today's low) * Target: $540 → $535 * Stop: Over $550 reclaim * Contract: 0DTE/2DTE $545P or $540P for gamma scalping * Note: Dealer hedging is directional, be precise and fast ? Relief Bounce Setup (Low Conviction) * Only valid if SPY reclaims $550 and shows slowing momentum * Possible dead-cat bounce to $555–$560 * Prefer spreads due to high IV and fast time decay ? Key Levels Summary HVL (Former Support) $560 Gamma flip zone — now resistance Gamma Pivot $550 Broke down — keep an eye on it Support Zone $542.20 Session low Downside Target $540 → $535 If gamma slide continues ? My Thoughts: This Is a Gamma Meltdown Today’s tariff headlines sparked a reflexive gamma cycle — as dealers flipped from long to short gamma, they were forced to hedge dynamically, driving SPY deeper into a liquidity vacuum. This is not your regular dip — it’s a liquidity and dealer flow event, so everything moves faster, with wild swings possible into the close or tomorrow. Unless SPY reclaims HVL at $560 fast, expect continuation or chop within this danger zone. VIX rising + GEX red = recipe for pain. ? Final Notes: * Use defined risk. * Don’t overstay puts. * Gamma moves cut both ways — expect volatility. * Track GEX hourly if possible. Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and protect your capital.
Based on the H4 chart, the price is rising toward our sell entry level at 1.3150, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibo projection and the 200% Fibo extension. Our take profit is set at 1.3013, a pullback support. The stop loss is set at 1.3319, a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
DXY DTF Analysis DXY is currently in a downtrend, creating lower highs and lower lows. Price has recently broken below a minor key level at 103.300, followed by a retracement that targeted stop losses from sellers. This retracement has created liquidity at the liquidity zone, further validating the bearish sentiment. With the break below the minor support level, we are expecting the downtrend to continue. Outlook and Key Technical Levels : ? Minor Key Support: 103.300 (Break below signals bearish continuation) ? Minor Key Resistance: 103.090 (Retracement level for sell limit order entry) ? Next Minor Support: 99.850 (Downside target for sellers) Fundamental Insight and Market Sentiment ? U.S. Dollar Weakness: The U.S. dollar has been under pressure recently due to growing concerns over tariffs, which have created uncertainty in the markets. This has fueled fears of a potential economic slowdown, with tariffs negatively impacting investor sentiment. The ongoing trade tensions and global uncertainties have resulted in a weaker outlook for the dollar, aligning with the technical breakdown in the DXY. ? Global Market Dynamics: Meanwhile, global risk sentiment remains mixed, with market participants seeking safer assets like gold, further weighing on the dollar. The negative impact from U.S. trade policies, combined with a shift in investor confidence, is contributing to a bearish outlook for the DXY. Given the technical setup and broader market sentiment, we are closely monitoring DXY for potential sell opportunities, especially if price retraces within the identified levels for a better entry point. ? Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
QQQ Slammed Below $465! Gamma Flip Confirmed as Tariff Panic Grips Tech Sector ? Macro Context (April 2, 2025) Trump’s new tariff announcement this morning ignited fear of inflation returning and disrupted global trade expectations. That spooked big tech and growth-heavy indices like QQQ, triggering gamma-driven liquidation and a sharp intraday breakdown. * Traders and dealers were not positioned for this headline — the rapid IV expansion and negative delta hedging caused a cascading sell-off. * From a GEX perspective, today’s action triggered a flip below HVL ($471), with gamma accelerating downside volatility. ? Technical Breakdown – 1H Chart Price Action: * QQQ attempted to push through $475–$480, but got rejected violently. * The huge red candle that nuked through $471 HVL and $469 confirmed a break of structure and bearish imbalance. Support Zones: * $455 – being tested now; psychological and options-related level * $453.86 – today’s session low * $450–$447 – likely short-term gamma target if weakness persists Resistance Levels: * $465 – 3rd PUT Wall * $471 – HVL (now major resistance) * $474–$477 – stacked CALL walls and former support ? Options GEX & Dealer Positioning GEX Flow: * ??? = Short Gamma territory, and it’s growing more negative. * Highest GEX support has disintegrated, with dealers hedging by shorting into the drop. * Net GEX flipped negative below $471, increasing volatility. * Dealer gamma continues to point down, with no major PUT walls until $450 zone. Options Sentiment: * IVR 38.4 / IVx avg 35.6 – slightly elevated vol, but with more room to rise * PUTs 55.5% – bearish lean confirmed * Expiry in 2 days + tariff panic = likely continuation or high chop volatility tomorrow ? Trade Setups ? Bearish Continuation (Preferred Bias) * Entry: Below $453.50 * Target: $450 → $447 * Stop: Above $458 reclaim * Contract Idea: 0DTE or 2DTE $455P/$450P depending on risk appetite * Note: Gamma trap zone from $455–$450 likely to accelerate price movement ? Dead Cat Bounce Setup (Low Conviction) * Only valid if QQQ reclaims $465+ with volume + positive options flow * Target: $471–$474 * Play with small size or debit spreads due to risk of gamma reversal ? Conclusion + My Thoughts This tariff-triggered crash was unexpected, and it created a dealer short-gamma loop in QQQ. The break below $471 HVL turned the table fast. Unless QQQ quickly reclaims $465+, we're likely heading to test $450 levels in the coming sessions. Tech tends to react aggressively to macro policy shifts, and the lack of near-term options support shows dealers are NOT stepping in. That opens the door for continued downside or extremely choppy relief rallies. Be fast. Be nimble. ? Key Levels Recap: ? HVL $471 Former support → resistance ? Support $455 / $453.86 Price and psychological ? GEX Target $450 / $447 Dealer hedging likely ? Resistance $465–$471 Gamma ceiling now ? Final Tip: Watch VIX, bond yields, and /NQ overnight — any panic escalation may turn this into a larger gamma-driven flush. Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always manage your risk and position sizing accordingly.
BTC in bullish accumulation pattern zones, reaches the price at the 55-period moving average, accompanied with the correct timing of the squizzy momentum. Buy zone-> $83,700 and $76,500 Sales area -> $108,000 or higher.
? Macro Context * The Trump tariff news shocked risk-on assets, and small caps were hit hardest. * IWM broke below the $195-$199 demand zone, now sliding into dealer gamma hedging territory. * GEX flow now clearly suggests a momentum-driven selloff, with risk of gamma acceleration if $192 breaks down. ? Technical Analysis (1H) ? Previous Structure: * IWM retested $201 after consolidating for days, then dumped hard, invalidating the breakout structure. * The large red candle broke through the HVL zone ($199) and cleared multiple support levels in one move. ? Current Zone: * Trading near $192.40, where there's no immediate gamma support, making this a vulnerable spot. Key Levels: * Immediate Resistance: * $198 – PUT Wall zone (2nd wall) * $199–$201 – HVL, former support now resistance * $203–$206 – stacked GEX CALL walls * Support Zone: * $191.43 – session low * $190–$188 = potential short-term bounce zone if VIX compresses * Below $188 = open gamma air pocket to $185 ? GEX + Options Sentiment GEX Analysis (Options GEX ): * ??? GEX = short gamma, dealers are likely short puts and hedging by selling into weakness. * $198: 2nd PUT Wall and GEX floor — breaking this triggered the slide. * No firm GEX support until $190, meaning price can overshoot downward. Options Oscillator: * IVR 40.4 / IVx avg 39.7 – moderate vol setup, but rising put pressure post-tariff. * PUTs 21.5% – leaning bearish * Spike in upcoming OPEX gamma positioning means dealers are reactive, not supportive. ? Trade Setups ? Bearish Continuation: * Entry: Breakdown below $192.00 * Target: $190 → $188 * Stop: Above $195 reclaim * Contracts: 0DTE or 2DTE $190P / $188P ? Bounce Reversal Play: * Only viable if $192.00 forms a strong base and we reclaim $195 with volume * Target: $198–$201 (retest of breakdown) * Contracts: 0DTE $195C / Spread to $198 ? Conclusion: IWM is under pressure with no strong gamma cushion until $190. If $192 fails, expect volatility spikes. Dealers are likely hedging against further downside. Only reversal signal would be a strong reclaim above $195–$198, which may spark a reflex rally. Suggested Play: * Scalpers: $192.00 key pivot * Swing: Bearish bias into $190 unless bulls reclaim $195 HVL zone * Options: Puts for continuation / tight call spreads only above $198 Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Always manage risk and trade with discipline.
?#BTC ideal target zone has been achieved✔️ ?From a structural perspective, the ideal target zone of the hourly bullish structure has been fully achieved, so the corresponding decline is very reasonable. Moreover, the daily closing price of the candlestick chart is lower than the downward trend line, so we failed to successfully break through and stabilize. The downward trend at the daily level is still intact, so we need to be alert to the risk of further decline. ➡️Because of the risk of further decline, I closed the long position in advance yesterday. Although I finally reached the ideal target zone, I would also feel distressed, but trading is like this, there are gains and losses. When the market goes crazy, what we need is not a more sophisticated technical analysis, but a calm observation of the greedy self in the mirror. ➡️If the market rebounds further, then the resistance zone we can pay attention to is 84576-86000. ? ➡️If the market falls further, then the support zone we can pay attention to is 78363-79500. ? Let’s see? ?If you like my analysis, please like? and share? BITGET:BTCUSDT.P
Based on the D1 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 1.1007, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibo retracement and the 127.2% Fibo extension. indicating a strong area of resistance. Our take profit is set at 1.0792, a pullback support. The stop loss is set at 1.1214, a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
? Market Context: In the aftermath of the Trump tariff-driven market crash, PLTR is teetering at critical gamma + price support around $80.30. The question now: is this a trap door breakdown or a gamma bounce setup into OPEX week? ? Technical Analysis (1H Chart) Structure & Price Action: * PLTR’s short-term rally toward $91 was rejected at the GEX resistance zone. * Sharp breakdown back to $80 confirms this is a contested liquidity zone. * Current price sits at a red HVL zone, overlapping the PUT Support from options flow. Key Levels: * Support: * ? $80.30–80.00: Major liquidity shelf & highest PUT support * ? $77 / $75 = deeper gamma cliffs if $80 fails * Resistance: * ? $82 = HVL reclaim needed to flip short-term trend * ? $88–$91 = Gamma Resistance & supply zone * ? $93–$97 = OTM CALL targets, low odds unless squeeze begins Indicators: * Volume spiking on sell candles, confirming the flush. * No bullish divergence visible yet on lower timeframes. * Still no structure signaling reversal — watching $80 reaction closely. ? GEX + Options Sentiment GEX Insight (Options GEX ): * GEX Sentiment: ??? → deep in short gamma territory; dealers may hedge against bounces. * $80 = Highest negative NET GEX and PUT wall — this level is critical. * Below $80 → dealer gamma unwinding could accelerate → volatility spike. * Above $82 → could set up a fast magnet move to $88 if momentum shifts. Options Oscillator: * IVR 68.1 / IVx avg 84.3 → still relatively high, room for volatility to contract. * CALL$ 22.7% → moderate call buyers, but no clear signal of squeeze intent. * Time decay visible with large bets expiring in next 2 sessions. ? Trade Scenarios ? Breakdown Play: * Trigger: Candle close under $80.00 * Target: $77 → $75 (gamma void zone) * Stop: Above $82.00 * Notes: High odds for 0DTE / 2DTE PUTs on a weak open ? Bounce from Gamma Support: * Trigger: $80 holds + reclaim $82 HVL with volume * Target: $88–$91 for gamma mean-reversion play * Stop: Below $79 * Ideal: Buy 0DTE/2DTE FWB:85C or debit spread targeting quick rebound ? Summary: PLTR is sitting on the edge of a gamma shelf. $80 is the line between bounce and bleed. GEX shows this is the max pain zone. Bulls need to defend this level aggressively, or we open up for a potential flush to $75 with heavy dealer hedging in play. ⚔️ Suggested Trade: * ? $80P 0DTE if market gaps below $80 * ? FWB:85C 2DTE only after $82 reclaim with strong volume * ? Scalpers can use $82/$88 as pivot zones Disclaimer: This breakdown is for educational purposes. Please trade based on your risk management and setup rules.