Theta can actually break out the resistance, RSI is looking good on the daily. I'm expecting a good run from here on. Not financial advice.
1. Introduction The 10-Year Treasury Note Futures (ZN), traded on the CME, are a cornerstone of the fixed-income market. As a vital benchmark for interest rate trends and macroeconomic sentiment, ZN Futures attract institutional and retail traders alike. Their liquidity, versatility, and sensitivity to economic shifts make them a go-to instrument for both speculation and hedging. In this article, we delve into the economic forces shaping ZN Futures’ performance across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. By leveraging machine learning, specifically a Random Forest Regressor, we identify the most impactful indicators influencing Treasury futures returns. These insights can help traders fine-tune their strategies and navigate the complexities of this market. 2. Product Specifications Contract Size: The standard ZN Futures contract represents $100,000 face value of 10-Year Treasury Notes. Tick Size: Each tick corresponds to 1/64 of 1% of par value. This equals $15.625 per tick, ensuring precise pricing and manageable risk for traders. Margins: Approximately $2,000 per contract (changes through time). Micro Contract Availability: While the standard contract suits institutional traders, the micro-sized Yield Futures provide a smaller-scale option for retail participants. These contracts offer reduced tick values and margin requirements, enabling broader market participation. 3. Daily Economic Drivers Machine learning models reveal that daily fluctuations in ZN Futures are significantly influenced by the following indicators: Building Permits: A leading indicator of housing market activity, an increase in permits signals economic confidence and growth. This optimism often puts upward pressure on yields, while a decline may reflect economic caution, boosting demand for Treasuries. U.S. Trade Balance: This metric measures the difference between exports and imports. A narrowing trade deficit typically signals improved economic health, leading to higher yields. Conversely, a widening deficit can weaken economic sentiment, increasing Treasury demand as a safe-haven asset. China GDP Growth Rate: As a global economic powerhouse, China’s GDP growth influences global trade and financial flows. Strong growth suggests robust international demand, pressuring Treasury prices downward as yields rise. Slower growth has the opposite effect, enhancing Treasury appeal. https://www.tradingview.com/x/2kPAb1LB/ 4. Weekly Economic Drivers When analyzing weekly timeframes, the following indicators emerge as significant drivers of ZN Futures: Velocity of Money (M2): This indicator reflects the speed at which money circulates in the economy. High velocity signals robust economic activity, often putting upward pressure on yields. Slowing velocity, on the other hand, may indicate stagnation, increasing demand for Treasury securities. Consumer Sentiment Index: This metric gauges the confidence level of consumers regarding the economy. Rising sentiment suggests stronger consumer spending and economic growth, often pressuring bond prices downward as yields rise. Conversely, a decline signals economic caution, favoring safe-haven assets like ZN Futures. Nonfarm Productivity: This measures output per hour worked in the nonfarm sector and serves as an indicator of economic efficiency. Rising productivity typically reflects economic strength and may lead to higher yields, while stagnation or declines can shift sentiment toward Treasuries. https://www.tradingview.com/x/qBeI35P9/ 5. Monthly Economic Drivers On a broader monthly scale, the following indicators play a pivotal role in shaping ZN Futures: Net Exports: This metric captures the difference between a country’s exports and imports. A surplus indicates strong global demand for domestic goods, signaling economic strength and driving yields higher. Persistent deficits, however, may weaken economic sentiment and increase demand for Treasuries as a safe haven. 10-Year Treasury Yield: As a benchmark for longer-term borrowing costs, movements in the 10-Year Treasury Yield reflect investor expectations for economic growth and inflation. Rising yields suggest optimism about future economic conditions, potentially reducing demand for Treasury futures. Declining yields indicate caution, bolstering Treasury appeal. Durable Goods Orders: This indicator measures new orders placed with manufacturers for goods expected to last three years or more. Rising orders signal business confidence and economic growth, often leading to higher yields. Conversely, a decline in durable goods orders can indicate slowing economic momentum, increasing Treasury demand. https://www.tradingview.com/x/IPHxBPHc/ 6. Applications for Different Trading Styles Economic indicators provide distinct insights depending on the trading style and timeframe: Day Traders: Focusing on daily indicators like Building Permits, U.S. Trade Balance, and China GDP Growth Rate to anticipate short-term market movements. For example, an improvement in China’s GDP Growth Rate may signal stronger global economic conditions, potentially driving yields higher and pressuring ZN Futures lower. Swing Traders: Weekly indicators such as Velocity of Money (M2), Consumer Sentiment Index, and Nonfarm Productivity could help identify intermediate trends. For instance, rising consumer sentiment can reflect increased spending expectations, potentially prompting bearish positions in ZN Futures. Position Traders: Monthly metrics like Net Exports, 10-Year Treasury Yield, and Durable Goods Orders may offer a macro perspective for long-term strategies. A sustained increase in durable goods orders, for instance, may indicate economic expansion, influencing traders to potentially adopt bearish sentiment on ZN Futures. 7. Conclusion The analysis highlights how daily, weekly, and monthly economic indicators collectively influence ZN Futures. From more immediate fluctuations driven by Building Permits and China GDP Growth Rate, to longer-term trends shaped by Durable Goods Orders and the 10-Year Treasury Yield, each timeframe provides actionable insights for traders. By understanding these indicators and incorporating machine learning models to uncover patterns, traders can refine strategies tailored to specific time horizons. Whether intraday, swing, or long-term, leveraging these insights empowers traders to navigate ZN Futures with greater precision. Stay tuned for the next installment in the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we examine economic drivers behind another key futures market. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: http://www.tradingview.com/cme/ - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NASDAQ:CLSK in a BEARISH view should be just in middle of the correction in a Primary degree wave ((2)) which its wave (X) looks well in progress.. . So with considering the wave (X) as an A-B-C zigzag formation, for now a rally in its wave C should have started to rising towards 20.20 where wave C = wave A. Finally the correction of wave (X) will be followed by a decline in Intermediate degree wave(Y) which its target would be out of this frame! #CryptoStocks #CLSK #BTCMining #BTC #ElliottWave #WaveAnalysis #ChartPattern #TrendAnalysis #ElliottChart
Team, we are shorting AUS200 at 8446-8456, add double short at 8515-8535, with stop loss at 8565 Target 1 at 8412-8406 - take partial and bring stop loss to BREAK EVEN Target 2 at 8382-89 target 3 target 8326-46
Crude is following a triangle pattern in the weekly time frame, retraced back in the monthly inside bar level, got the resistance from the higher tl in 1H tf, a HH pattern, also broken the lower HH tl, now trying to take support at a different angled tl, within the 1H inside bar ,also giving the 12M and monthly levels for the crude will add all the important patterns followed by crude as and when required in different tfs
Make sure you are on the right side of the macro capital flow trends when they turn via a Capital Rotation Event. They can drastically alter your probabilities of success. Spx lost over 86%, then over 94% and 88% versus gold. No reason to go through that pain.
Its Here! If You having been following me, we are about to hit our target this week before 1/24/25 , a lot of my followers are going to make a lot of money this week following my Spy & Stock predictions! When we hit our price target this week, I will Update Accordingly to cautiously evaluate our market conditions Bear / Bull / Blow Off Top. But in the meantime you must have exposure to stocks that can with stand a Bull or Bear Market Moving Forward Content Out Now, on what to do! As Always Safe Trades JoeWtrades
Switched to doing my breakdown on the micro contract since is what I actually trade and the forex chart is not moving in sync with it currently so I cant trust that price action. Expecting for a set up on a major play tonight some time between Asian session and London. Price is ultimately bearish so we not looking to get in until price moves outside of value to give us a entry.
During his first day in office, President Donald Trump revoked a 2023 executive order signed by former President Joe Biden that sought to reduce the potential risks AI poses to consumers, workers, and national security. Biden’s executive order directed the Commerce Department’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) to author guidance that helps companies […] © 2024 TechCrunch. All rights reserved. For personal use only.
A week after the U.K. government announced a sweeping plan to make big investments into AI, it’s laying out more details around how this will take shape in the public sector. On the agenda: AI assistants to speed up public services; data-sharing deals across siloed departments; and a new set of AI tools — dubbed […] © 2024 TechCrunch. All rights reserved. For personal use only.