The German DAX 40 saw impressive gains of over 1,500 points between mid-November and mid-December. However, following comments from the Fed, the index corrected nearly 800 points, reaching the crucial 50% Fibonacci retracement level. For the past three weeks, the DAX 40 has held above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, signaling that bulls may be regaining control. Supporting this bullish outlook is today’s Golden Cross, a classic buy signal and an indicator of strong upward momentum. Based on this setup, we favor entering a buy position but will wait for a potential 100-point dip to secure a better risk-to-reward ratio. Buying near 19,950 offers a strategic entry point, with a target set at December’s swing high of 20,450. This target aligns with the potential formation of a Double Top pattern, a critical resistance level. If the bullish momentum persists, this strategy positions us well for capitalizing on the DAX 40's upward trajectory.
Following up on the guide that I posted on the weekly timeframe, internal price action on the 2H is bullish and we are currently at the OB which supports the first outcome. Price could continue down without giving us a bearish choch which is a 50/50 trade IMO. I would prefer to see a bearish choch first to increase its probability of holding. If we break above the strong week high I will try to go long with the 2H internal aiming for short term targets until I see a bearish choch to target the weekly low. The least probably but still possible outcome is for price to go above the December high if the 2H internal price action continues bullish. We also have some very important news releases with Services PMI and NFP being the major ones so be sure to manage your risk this week like every week.
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