AMEX:SPY SP:SPX TVC:VIX analysis. I feel we completed another ABC today and we'll meltdown into 5400 for a bottom.
Market Structure & Key Levels * AMD is currently trading within a downtrend channel, struggling to break through the resistance zone around $100–$102. * A key support zone is forming around $95–$96, where buyers have been stepping in. * The broader trend is bearish, with AMD rejecting from the upper boundary of its trend channel. Support & Resistance * Immediate Resistance: $100.25, $103.14, $104.00 * Immediate Support: $95.91, $94.73, $90.00 (PUT Wall) ? Indicator Analysis MACD & Momentum * MACD is slightly bullish, but the momentum is still weak, suggesting uncertainty. * If the MACD crosses bullishly with volume, we could see a short-term relief rally toward $100+. Stochastic RSI * The Stoch RSI is oversold and curling upward, hinting at potential upside. * However, without strong volume confirmation, this could be a weak bounce. ? GEX & Options Insights https://www.tradingview.com/x/0riBt989/ * IVR: 52.9, suggesting moderate implied volatility. * IVX avg: 56.5, showing that the stock is near average volatility levels. * GEX Sentiment: Bearish * PUT Support Wall at $95 (Highest negative NETGEX level). * CALL Resistance at $102–$105 (Heavy gamma exposure). * A break below $95 could trigger more downside pressure toward $90. ? Trade Scenarios ? Bullish Play (Breakout Above $100) * Entry: Above $100.25 with strong volume. * Target: $103.14 → $104.00. * Stop Loss: $97.50 (Below rejection point). ? Bearish Play (Continuation to Downside) * Entry: Below $95.50. * Target: $94.73 → $90.00 (PUT Support Wall). * Stop Loss: $97 (Above consolidation zone). Final Thoughts * Bearish Bias Unless AMD Breaks Above $100–$102. * Watch for a rejection at resistance or a breakdown of $95 for further downside. * Implied Volatility suggests a strong move could be coming. ? This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always trade with proper risk management! ?
!!! ANOTHER RECESSION WARNING !!! Major recession signal to be confirmed in a few weeks by the major Canadian stock market. TSX priced in gold. Brace for impact.
We’ve been in a bearish trend for UJ….currently we’ve reacted off our 1hr orderblock and have given a 15min internal ChOCh…..next level target 146.700 level (external liquidity)
The Terra Luna Classic ( SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:LUNC ) ecosystem has reached a significant milestone, burning over 405 billion LUNC since May 2022. This deflationary move, alongside the burning of 3.5 billion USTC, has fueled optimism for a potential price breakout. As fundamental and technical indicators align, market sentiment suggests an imminent shift in trajectory. The Impact of LUNC and USTC Burns The Terra Luna Classic community has remained committed to revitalizing the ecosystem following its 2022 collapse. The burning of tokens serves as a crucial deflationary strategy aimed at reducing supply and, in turn, boosting demand. According to the latest burn tracker update, the total LUNC burned has reached 405,867,335,786, with USTC burns surpassing 3.5 billion tokens. One of the key contributors to this burn mechanism is Binance, which has reaffirmed its commitment to reducing LUNC’s circulating supply. The exchange recently incinerated 760 million LUNC from trading commission income for February, highlighting the sustained community and partner contributions toward the token’s long-term sustainability. Despite the aggressive burn, LUNC has struggled to break past major resistance levels. However, the positive market sentiment stemming from these fundamental shifts could be the catalyst needed for a substantial price movement. Technical Outlook LUNC’s price is currently trading at $0.00006094, marking a 5% increase in the past 24 hours. However, the broader market turbulence has caused LUNC to decline 5.74% over the past week and 46% Year-to-Date (YTD). Key Technical Indicators: The RSI is pegged at 41, a neutral zone that signals room for a potential bullish surge while still susceptible to downside risks. SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:LUNC is currently testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A breakout above this key resistance could signal the start of a bullish reversal. If selling pressure persists, a dip below the 1-month low could be inevitable, potentially dragging LUNC back into bearish territory. LUNC Ecosystem Updates: What’s Next? Earlier this year, the Terra Luna Classic development team outlined five major updates aimed at strengthening the ecosystem. These include removing fork modules, enhancing token burns, and refining governance mechanisms. While most of these plans have been successfully implemented, the long-term success of LUNC still hinges on broader market sentiment and further adoption. Conclusion The latest burn figures have reignited optimism within the Terra Luna Classic community, setting the stage for a potential bullish turnaround. With key technical indicators aligning with fundamental improvements, LUNC traders are eyeing a breakout above critical resistance levels.
ASX 200 SPI futures are so oversold on the daily timeframe that you can’t help but notice, especially when looking back over recent years. The only time an RSI reading this low didn’t spark some form of bounce was during the height of the pandemic panic in early 2020. But being oversold alone isn’t enough to trade against the prevailing strong bearish trend, putting extra emphasis on Wednesday’s price action. To get bullish and position for a countertrend squeeze, we need a price signal for confirmation. I’m watching 7796—the price dipped below this level in low-volume trade during the night session before reversing back above. It’s only a minor level, but beneath it there’s not much for bulls to hang their hat on until 7600, where buyers stepped in last year. Depending on the price action around the open at 9:45 am AEDT, if bulls defend 7796 again, the risk of a squeeze increases, similar to what we saw on Tuesday. Longs could be considered above the level with a stop beneath the session low for protection. 7900 is one potential target, with 7996 and former uptrend support around 30 points higher alternative options for those seeking greater risk-reward. A clean break and close below 7796 would invalidate the squeeze setup. Unless accompanied by fundamentally bearish news, flipping short after recent declines would be risky. Potentially working in bulls’ favour, iron ore futures in Singapore had a solid session overnight, lifting nearly 1% to $101.70 per tonne. Good luck! DS
I trade almost exclusively long, and like everyone else who does, it’s harder to make a buck in this kind of environment. Swimming against the current is generally for salmon, not traders. But when you don’t have that choice, learning how to adjust your approach can make you a more profitable trader. Apologies for the baseball analogy here, but it’s like hitting with 2 strikes. You never want to be in that position, but if you are, adjustments are the key. 1) BE MORE SELECTIVE WITH YOUR TRADES A LOT (too many) people trade because they feel like they have to - in an addiction sort of way. But patience is a key to good trading. You should always have very a disciplined methodology for entering a trade, but even then, too many people take the first trade they find that fits their criteria. That may work in up markets, but waiting for the BEST trade makes MUCH more difference in a down market. Another way to be selective is related to the previous idea. When times are tough, I am more selective about which tickers I trade and trade only the ones that have been historically safer and produced better gain per day returns, or are higher in other metrics I use than most stocks. That does take quite a bit of data crunching, but that investment of time protects my investment of money. So today I’m trading CBRE. Not a household name, but one that has produced results FAR better than most stocks in my tradeable universe with the system I use. It is a large cap stock (safer than mid or small caps in tough times) and among large caps, carries a top 15% ranking for me. Of all the stocks I follow that my algorithm had “buy” signals on today (almost 100), it was the highest rated based on my selection criteria. When times are tough, STICK WITH QUALITY. Now is not the time to be trading penny stocks. Safety matters right now. Go with names that have proven themselves in tough times before. 2) RAISE THE BAR The algorithm I use can be adjusted in terms of how liberal it is in terms of identifying stocks as “buys”. But doing this for yourself can be as simple as adding a “filter” such as only trading long using stocks that are above their 200d moving average, in strong uptrends, or adjusting the settings on indicators to give fewer but higher quality signals. For what I do, there needs to be a balance. I can’t be TOO restrictive and not generate enough trades. But I definitely want the trades I take in a down market to be the best ones I can. Depending on the type of trading you do, you may be able to trade only once or twice a week and so can afford to be extremely selective. CBRE is still solidly in a longer term uptrend, although it has broken through its 200d MA. For my system, that is not a big deal, given how I trade. It is near significant support (something I’m more apt to care about in tough times than in good ones). FInd out the variables that affect the way you trade, and select trades based on them, and you’ll do a much better job trading in tough times. 3) TIGHTEN STOPS Full disclosure: I don’t use stops. For the way I trade, they do more harm than good. That said, for most trading systems, they are a good idea and act as protection in moments just like we are living in today. Pulling in stops can keep losses small and easier to recover from when you finally trade a setup that does exactly what you want it to. There is an art and science to setting stops that I am definitely not the person to learn from, but knowing how to set good stops can be the difference between being a profitable trader and a losing one. And just to be clear - I have well over a million backtested trade results covering every market meltdown in the last 50 years that validate my decision not to use stops with my trading system. That is not a haphazard guess or laziness on my part. I can’t say strongly enough how important it is to use data to drive decision-making when you trade, and even more so in markets like this one. You NEED to backtest your system and validate that it continues to be profitable in times like these. Because if it isn’t, you should be spectating right now instead of trading. And the math backs me up on this one - not losing money is FAR more profitable than making money. Not losing should always be your #1 priority. Digging yourself a -30% hole takes 43% in gains from that level just to break even. If you don’t have a very high probability of winning, ESPECIALLY in times like these, your best financial decision is to not trade at all. 4) MATCH THE SYSTEM TO THE MOMENT Good traders have one of two things going for them - either they trade a system that works in any market conditions (those are tough to find) or they have different systems in their toolbox for different times. Trading a system that is a trend-following long system is a tough way to make money in markets like this one. Something that gets you in and out of trades quickly in markets like this one are far safer and more profitable. Trend following works better in the middle of bull markets. Know the conditions you are trading and use the right tool for the job and you’ll make more money. 5) TRADE WITH CONFIDENCE That isn’t a trite line from a self-help book. Trading with confidence means KNOWING that what you are doing works in the conditions you’re trading in. I have collected ridiculous amounts of backtest data that drive my trading. I KNOW what I am doing will work over the long haul, even (and especially) in markets like this one. However, false confidence (being sure of yourself without justification) is the literally most dangerous personality trait a trader can have, in my opinion. To trade with real confidence requires investment of time and effort so that you are sure that what you are doing is the right thing to be doing. Experience helps, but success in a small sample size can create a false sense of confidence. If I successfully fight off a bear in the woods, that doesn't mean fighting bears is a good idea or that I’m a bear fighting phenom, it just means I got lucky. I am a HUGE proponent of making sure you know the statistical edge you have when you trade, and if you don’t know what that edge is, assume you don’t have one. SO many people lose in trading, not because of the “big money” “manipulating” stocks, but because they are trying to trade without an edge. Over the long haul, you’ll lose doing that. And I assure you, big money trades knowing their “edge” and that’s why they win and most little guys don’t. They are better prepared. Sorry for the tough talk, but winning at trading is about finding an edge and consistently exploiting it. Period. IF you have an edge and you know it, the confidence comes automatically. If you aren’t certain that you have an edge, doubt will always be there. Foolhardy confidence is even worse, though. KNOW YOUR EDGE. Example - CBRE. Using the system I trade on CBRE, my algo has generated 575 trade signals, going back to 2004. Do you know how many have resulted in losing trades? ZERO. 575-0. Knowing that means I KNOW I have a massive edge when I trade. If the trade goes against me initially, do you know how much I stress about it knowing that it has a 100% win rate over 20+ years on this stock? NONE. And justifiably so, in my opinion. Could the next one be the first one? Sure, but the odds against it are astronomical. But here’s the deal - say it does go all the way to zero - a 100% loss. Historically, the average gain per trade for those 575 trades is over 2% each. That means 50 of those cancel out completely one that goes to zero. The rest of the story here is that the results are not unique to CBRE. I’ve traded these signals 1000s of times in real life using more tickers than I can count, and over a million backtested trades on over 1500 tickers. I know what I’m doing works. That’s where confidence comes from. If you are new to trading, you need to seek out DATA to back up trading chart patterns, trendlines, or whatever it may be. KNOW that you have an edge, and sticking to what you do comes very easily. So I’m entering my initial position in CBRE here at today’s close for 125.83. Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day it still rates as a “buy” using my algo and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit. As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
NZDUSD (1D Timeframe) Analysis Market Structure: The price is approaching a significant support level, which has previously acted as a key area for price reversals. This level is important for identifying potential buying opportunities. Forecast: It is recommended to wait for the price to reach the support level. If bullish confirmation is observed, such as bullish candlestick patterns or increased buying momentum, a buy position can be considered. Key Levels to Watch: - Entry Zone: Monitor the price behavior near the support level and consider buying if a clear bounce or bullish signal is confirmed. - Risk Management: - Stop Loss: Placed below the support zone to protect against a potential breakdown. - Take Profit: Target the next resistance levels for potential gains. Market Sentiment: Confirmation of bullish sentiment will depend on how the price reacts at the support level. A strong bounce would indicate potential for upward movement, while a breakdown may signal further downside. Waiting for confirmation will provide better trade accuracy.
Probability: High Position: Long Context: 4H/1H Bullish Imbalance
Trend analysis is the backbone of successful trading. This educational post introduces a mathematical approach to trend analysis using multiple indicators on TradingView. By combining linear regression, quadratic regression, volume profile, Fibonacci retracements, and moving averages, traders can build a data-driven trading strategy that reduces subjectivity and enhances decision-making. This method ensures all indicators align with the same market structure, providing a consistent and repeatable framework for identifying trading opportunities. Step 1: Identifying Trends with Linear and Quadratic Regression To define the prevailing trend, we use linear regression with the highest statistical fit. Apply a Linear Regression Channel indicator over various lengths (e.g., from 50 to 1000 bars). Select the length with the highest R-squared (r²) value, indicating the best fit to price action. Add a 2-standard deviation channel around the regression line to create a dynamic price range for trading. Next, apply quadratic regression using the same length to capture potential trend curvature, ensuring consistency across analyses. Step 2: Defining Market Structure Using Volume Profile and Fibonacci With the trend established, we now identify key support and resistance levels. Use the Volume Profile indicator over the same length as the linear regression to highlight high-volume nodes, which act as strong support or resistance zones. Overlay a Fibonacci retracement grid based on the highest and lowest price points within the regression period. Focus on key levels like 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% for potential retracement or continuation areas. Step 3: Confirming Trend Direction with Moving Averages Moving averages help confirm the trend and establish a bias for trade direction. Plot the 50, 100, and 200 EMA on the chart. If the price is above the 200 EMA and both linear and quadratic regressions show an upward slope, the trend is bullish. If the price is below the 200 EMA with downward-sloping regressions, the trend is bearish. The alignment of price relative to these EMAs solidifies the correct side of the trade. Step 4: Establishing Entry and Exit Zones With the trend and market structure defined, we can now pinpoint optimal entry and exit points. For bullish trends, define the entry zone near the lower boundary of the regression channel, ideally around the 200 EMA or a Fibonacci support level. For bearish trends, set the entry zone near the upper boundary of the regression channel or a Fibonacci resistance level. Exit long trades at the upper boundary of the regression channel or a high-volume resistance area. Exit short trades at the lower boundary or a significant Fibonacci support level. Conclusion This mathematical trading method empowers traders to analyze trends with precision using TradingView indicator strategies. By aligning linear regression, volume profile, Fibonacci retracements, and moving averages, you can create a repeatable, data-driven trading approach.