The USDCHF is currently showing strong bullish momentum on the 1-hour chart. Price action has been respecting the key support level, and we've seen a recent breakout above the resistance zone, signaling a potential continuation to the upside.
The U.S. dollar, long considered a bastion of stability, is facing a significant shift in sentiment as hedge funds begin to adopt a bearish stance. This reversal, marking a notable change since the period following Donald Trump's election, is driven by a complex interplay of economic uncertainties and evolving market expectations. Factors Driving the Bearish Turn: • Shifting Federal Reserve Expectations: o A key driver of this bearish sentiment is the evolving outlook on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Initially, expectations of a strong dollar were bolstered by projections of limited Fed rate cuts. However, growing concerns about the fragility of the U.S. economy have led to increased expectations of multiple rate reductions. This shift in expectations weakens the dollar's appeal. • Economic Uncertainty and Trade Policies: o Concerns surrounding potential trade wars and the impact of certain economic policies are also weighing on the dollar. Uncertainty about future trade relations and their potential impact on U.S. economic growth is creating apprehension among hedge fund managers. o The impacts of possible public sector job cuts, and restrictive immigration policies, are also adding to the economic uncertainty. • Data from the CFTC: o Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reveals a clear trend. Speculative traders have moved from holding significant long-dollar positions to net short positions, indicating a substantial shift in market sentiment. • Global Economic Factors: o The relative strength of other global economies also plays a role. If other global economies are showing signs of stronger growth, that can also put downward pressure on the dollar. Implications of a Weaker Dollar: • Impact on Global Trade: o A weaker dollar can have significant implications for global trade, potentially making U.S. exports more competitive while increasing the cost of imports. • Inflationary Pressures: o A depreciating dollar can also contribute to inflationary pressures within the U.S. as import prices rise. • Investment Flows: o Changes in the dollar's value can influence international investment flows, as investors adjust their portfolios in response to currency fluctuations. Market Analysis: • Analysts are closely monitoring these developments, with some revising their dollar forecasts downward. The shift in hedge fund positioning underscores the growing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook. • It is important to understand that the currency markets are very dynamic, and things can change rapidly. • The effects of political events, and world wide economic changes can have very large effects on the dollar. In essence, the shift in hedge fund sentiment reflects a growing recognition of the complex economic challenges facing the U.S. As these challenges unfold, the dollar's trajectory will remain a key focus for investors and policymakers alike.
The dollar is rising because of peace talks and hopes that tariffs won’t be as bad as expected. The US stock market is looking better, but economic data is mixed. Gold’s upward movement depends on breaking $3022-25. A drop below $2095-98 could accelerate its decline.
? ? ? Market-Moving News ?: ???️ Amazon Spring Sale Impact ?️: Amazon’s Big Spring Sale is underway, and increased consumer activity could lift retail sector sentiment this week. Watch for broader impacts on e-commerce competitors and discretionary stocks. ??? UK Growth Outlook Cut ?: Ahead of the UK's Spring Statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to revise growth forecasts downward. While not U.S.-centric, weaker UK economic momentum may influence broader global risk sentiment. ? Key Data Releases ?: ? Tuesday, March 25: ? S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 AM ET): Forecast: +4.4% YoY Previous: +4.5% YoY A gauge of housing market strength based on home price changes in 20 U.S. metro areas. ? Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 95.0 Previous: 98.3 Measures consumers’ outlook on business and labor conditions. A key sentiment driver. ?️ New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 679K annualized Previous: 657K Tracks the number of newly constructed homes sold. Sensitive to rates and affordability. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions. ? #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
?#BTC Is the bull market still there? ?From a structural perspective, the weekly and monthly uptrends are still intact, so the bull market is not over yet, so I labeled this analysis "LONG". Unless a weekly short structure is built, I think we still have a chance to see 132k-175k. ➡️From a cyclical perspective, we are currently entering a daily adjustment phase. The daily structure cannot change the weekly and monthly uptrends, and we are expected to maintain a complex consolidation for another 5 months, and we may see the results in September. ➡️The current daily downtrend has not ended, and it is approaching the overlapping blue resistance area. Don't go bullish against the pressure. If the weekly closing price in the future can be higher than the overlapping resistance area, then the resistance will turn into support. Only when you step back to this area again can you look for opportunities to go long, otherwise you need to pay attention to the long opportunities in the yellow support area below. Let's see? ?If you like my analysis, please like? and share? BINANCE:BTCUSDT
S&P has been moving up quick strongly over the past few days. It has reached a level that is a strong resistance and we will show this pair today. 1) There is deep crab pattern 2) H1 is overbought 3) There is RSI divergence on M15, M30 and H1 We will take profit when RSI is oversold.
Today's buying and selling boundaries: 150.25 Support and resistance levels: 151.62 151.11 150.78 149.73 149.40 148.89 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 150.78, consider buying, the first target price is 151.11 If the price breaks through 150.25, consider selling, the first target price is 149.73
Trade Setup for Descending Channel in XAU/USD (Gold) **? Bearish Trade Setup (Sell Strategy)** Since the price is trending within a descending channel, the best trade approach is to **sell at resistance** and **target support levels**. **? Entry Points:** ? **Sell Entry #1:** Near the upper boundary of the descending channel (~3,020 - 3,030). ? **Sell Entry #2:** If price retests and fails to break above the 21 EMA (~3,015 - 3,018). **? Target Levels (Take Profit - TP):** ✅ **TP1:** 3,000 (Psychological level and lower channel support) ✅ **TP2:** 2,980 (Next major support zone) ✅ **TP3:** 2,960 (Extended target if the trend continues) **? Stop Loss (SL):** ? **SL Above 3,035-3,040:** If price breaks out above the descending channel, it invalidates the setup. **? Trade Confirmation:** ✅ **EMA Rejection:** Watch for price rejecting the **21 EMA (Blue Line)** as resistance. ✅ **Volume Analysis:** Look for increased selling volume when price approaches resistance. ✅ **Bearish Candlestick Patterns:** Such as **bearish engulfing, shooting star, or evening star** near resistance. **? Alternative Bullish Setup (If Trend Breaks Upward)** If price **breaks above 3,040 with strong volume**, it could signal a trend reversal. In this case: ? **Buy Entry:** After a confirmed breakout & retest above 3,040. ? **Targets:** 3,060 - 3,080. ? **SL:** Below 3,030. **Conclusion:** ? **Primary Strategy: Sell on Rallies within the Channel.** ? **Alternative Plan: Wait for a Bullish Breakout Before Buying.** ? **Stay disciplined with Stop Loss & Risk Management!* https://www.tradingview.com/x/eIpoUy1f/
Technical analysis of gold: From the technical point of view, gold has retreated for three consecutive days, which is somewhat special in the previous crazy continuous rise. Usually, the negative line in the daily continuous rise, as long as the European session is resistant to the decline, sell short before the US session, and the watershed morning high point, usually the US session will rely on the previous day's low point to make a watershed stop loss, and according to the technical form, the rhythm of the daily line is destroyed. Whether it can bottom out and rebound today still needs to be observed! Today, the gold price opened near the short-term moving average MA10, and the short-term moving average MA5 began to turn downward. After yesterday's market surged, it was blocked near the MA5 moving average and began to fall. Today, we need to focus on the resistance formed by the MA5 moving average. If the gold price falls below yesterday's low of 3002, then we can continue to follow the short trend and look down. Focus on the upper side of the row pressure level of 3028 at the end of yesterday's trading, and participate in short orders during the day at this position. Gold 4-hour chart relies on the middle track of the Bollinger Bands to rebound. The middle track is the short-term strength and weakness distinction point. In the adjustment trend, the weakness is below the middle track. It is also a distinction point, combined with the hourly chart above. In the step-down shock, although the rebound yesterday was slightly higher than the 3033 line, it was still running below the second highest point of 3038 as a whole, a complete step adjustment trend. The second highest point is not lost, the trend is not changed, and today's operation relies on the 3033 high point as a defense to continue to follow the trend and fall back. The low point of 2020-2026 is still a resistance point. After the short position of 2028 was reduced yesterday, the bottom position continued to break the 3000 small band. Short positions rebounded slightly today near 2020-2023 and continued to short. Defense at 3033 is enough. The target is to reduce the position and then leave the bottom position to look down at 2990-2980. The space depends on the shape. As long as it closes at a low level, the adjustment space will be further deepened the next day. On the whole, I suggest that the short-term operation strategy for gold today is mainly short-selling on rebounds, supplemented by long positions on pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3020-3025 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2999-2980 line of support. Short order strategy: Strategy 1: Short (buy short) 20% of the position in batches when gold rebounds around 3020-3023, stop loss at 3055, target around 3010-3000, break to target 2890 Long order strategy: Strategy 2: When gold falls back to around 2990-2993, buy long positions in batches (buy up) with 20% of the position, stop loss 8 points, target around 3000-3005, break the position and look at 3010
Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.4318 Support and resistance levels: 1.4379 1.4356 1.4342 1.4295 1.4280 1.4257 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 1.4342, consider buying, the first target price is 1.4356 If the price breaks through 1.4295, consider selling, the first target price is 1.4280