The Nasdaq 100 has had a rough start to 2025, plunging by nearly 15% over the year so far. Even with the recent rally, the technology-heavy index remains down almost 9%, and where it goes from here appears less certain. Many investors seem to believe that a V-shaped “snapback rally” is due, but the technical pattern — resembling a broadening megaphone — suggests that the next major move could be sharply lower. The Nasdaq has completed three touches on an upper trendline and two touches on a lower trendline — a classic megaphone pattern — suggesting the formation is now complete, and the next significant move in the index could be towards the lower trendline at 19,600. Should the NASDAQ fall below 19,600, it could potentially undercut the 10 March low at 19,115. https://www.tradingview.com/x/bvAYUOrf/ The Nasdaq’s move higher off the 11 March low could be corrective, with overlapping wave structures. The index is also rebounding from oversold levels after it fell below the lower Bollinger Band and its relative strength index dropped below 30. However, that condition has passed, and the index is no longer oversold. Furthermore, the Nasdaq has stalled over the past two days just below the 200-day moving average (DMA) — a key resistance level. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Sfb1856O/ If the Nasdaq can rise above the 200-DMA and surpass the upper trendline, the megaphone pattern would be invalidated, with the potential for the index to target the upper Bollinger Band at 20,900. Written by Michael J Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
The U.S. dollar traded weaker on Thursday, dropping 0.22% in the DXY index, despite the release of economic figures that slightly exceeded market expectations. This negative move becomes technically significant as it occurs near the 200-period moving average, a key level that was breached earlier in March, placing the greenback under greater short-term selling pressure. The key economic data released was the Q4 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which showed an annualized growth rate of 2.4%, marginally above the expected 2.3%, though representing a notable slowdown from the previous quarter’s 3.1%. This growth was primarily driven by consumer spending, which rose 4%, its fastest pace since Q1 2023, and higher government expenditures (3.1%), partially offsetting declines in fixed investment and exports. Despite the apparent economic optimism suggested by these figures, the underlying strength of the dollar remains questioned due to recent trade policy decisions by the Trump administration and the significant deterioration in consumer sentiment during Q1 2025. Particularly noteworthy is the announcement of new 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts, effective from April 3. Trump labeled this date as the "Liberation Day" for the U.S. automotive industry, asserting the primary goal is to stimulate local production and correct historically unfair trade practices. However, substantial risks emerge from this policy, including potential disruptions to global supply chains, a significant increase in new vehicle prices (ranging from an additional $4,000 to $12,200 per unit), especially affecting electric vehicles highly dependent on imported components, and inflationary pressures that might compel the Federal Reserve to reconsider its current pause on restrictive monetary policy. Additionally, the auto industry immediately reacted negatively, with shares of giants like General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis declining, while Canada and the European Union strongly opposed the measure, considering potential retaliatory actions that could escalate global trade tensions. In this scenario, markets closely watch Friday’s release of the PCE inflation report and the University of Michigan's inflation expectations index, indicators that could provide crucial insights into the Federal Reserve's next moves. The Fed remains cautiously on the sidelines, evaluating the real impact of governmental trade policies on inflation and economic growth. Ultimately, although today the dollar exhibited technical and fundamental weakness, its future outlook continues to hinge significantly on domestic and international political and economic dynamics, promising continued high operational volatility in the near term. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
The current idea of the end of the trading day is very clear. We chose to take short positions below the previous historical highs of 3055-57 for the second time. The short positions at 3050-52 have now retreated to around 3038. Since there has been a high-level decline, it shows that the bulls are not that strong. There has been no one-shot breakout. The probability of a breakout of 3055 tonight is gradually decreasing. The end of the trading day will most likely remain in the 3030-50 range for consolidation. If it falls back to around 3031-33, you can take long positions and defend around 25. Once it rebounds again to around 50-52, you can still take short positions. The focus is on tonight's closing point. If it closes directly above 45, the gold price may hit a new high tomorrow; if it closes below 35, it will remain volatile at a high level tomorrow, Friday.
Nifty has today found a good support just above Mother line of the hourly chart and Mid-channel support zone as it bounced from lows of the day near 23412 to close at 23591. Tomorrow being the weekly closing, monthly closing and financial yearly closing it become very important or one of the most important days for investment enthusiasts. A positive closing tomorrow will empower bulls in a lot of ways. The first support for Nifty will be at 23550. A very strong support zone for Nifty right now remains between 23412 and 23380. This zone includes today's low, mid channel support and mother line support. A closing below 23380 will bring bears back into action who can potentially drag Nifty again to 23145, 23003 or levels below 22801. Resistance zone for Nifty remains at 23646 today's high, 23670, 23778 and 23900. A closing above 23900 will empower bulls to take Nifty to higher levels of 24046, 24169 or 24378. As described earlier very important day tomorrow with shadow of the candle being neutral to positive. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Valuation Potential of iMe Messenger: Why It Has the Prospect to Reach 5-20% of Telegram's $30 Billion Valuation? Authors: SanTi Li, Naxida, Feng Yu, Li Feiyu Abstract: In the Web3 era, the functionality of messaging applications is no longer limited to information transmission. Many failures of Web3 social applications (SocialFi) stem from a lack of sustained user engagement and long-term foundation, or their core functionality merely copying existing platforms (such as borrowing from Twitter). Additionally, the integration of tokens into these platforms often lacks depth and practical utility. Social applications, once adopted by users, establish strong defensive moats, and further integrating Web3 elements such as multi-domain payments, multi-chain interaction, financial services, and decentralized applications can significantly enhance their intrinsic value. iMe Messenger (LIME), as an extension of Telegram's ecosystem, enhances and optimizes its functionality while maintaining a unique market position. This has attracted growing attention from users, investors, and institutional clients. By analyzing market trends, user demands, and the synergies between Telegram, its public blockchain TON, and iMe Messenger, this paper explores why iMe Messenger has the potential to reach 5-20% of Telegram's valuation and how it fits within the triad of TON, Telegram, and iMe to mutually enhance value. 1. Market Positioning and User Value of iMe Messenger 1.1 Compatibility with Telegram: Lowering User Migration and Learning Costs iMe Messenger ( GATEIO:LIMEUSDT LIME) is not only a standalone social application but also a Pro-version developed on top of Telegram, allowing seamless synchronization of chat history, contacts, and channels. This drastically reduces migration costs, enabling iMe to inherit Telegram's ecosystem rather than building an entirely new application from scratch. Essentially, every Telegram user can also be an iMe user, and all iMe users are inherently Telegram users. 1.2 Enhanced Features for Greater User Engagement and Experience Building upon Telegram's core, iMe offers additional features such as: ●Integrated Wallets: Supporting multi-chain payments and fund transfers among Telegram friends, including BSC, Solana BINANCE:SOLUSDT , ETH, and TON. ●Translation & Content Organization: Enabling translation for personal and group chats without requiring Telegram's Star VIP subscription. ●Payment and Exchange Integration: Supports Binance Pay and Uniswap's DEX functionalities. ●Improved Group Features: Introduces Crypto Box, similar to WeChat's red packet and gifting features. ●AI Assistant & Antivirus Protection: Enhances user experience with AI-driven features. ●Latest AI Integrations: Users can directly utilize AI models like Gemini and GPT for multi-format content creation and image generation. ●Enhanced Privacy: Strengthened encryption and privacy protection. ●Customizable UI: More personalized interface options than Telegram, appealing to specific user demographics. These enhancements make iMe a superior choice for certain use cases compared to Telegram's native experience. Feature Telegram iMe Messenger Core Messaging ✅ ✅ + Premium Antivirus Cross-Platform Sync ✅ ✅ AI Translation & Speech-to-Text ✅ (VIP only) ✅ (Free via Lime token) Multi-Chain Transfers ❌ ✅ (Supports Sol, BSC, ETH, etc.) AI BOT Integration ✅ ✅ (Advanced AI models) Functional Optimization ❌ ✅ (More user-friendly UI) Payment System ❌ ✅ (Binance Pay, CryptoBox) Staking Services ❌ (Requires third-party access) ✅ (Directly accessible in Wallet module) Telegram API Requirement ✅ (Native API) ❌ (Requires external API access) Independent App Download ✅ (App Store) ✅ (App Store) 2. Valuation Comparison: iMe vs. Telegram 2.1 Telegram's Valuation Logic Telegram is currently valued at approximately $30 billion, primarily due to: 1.A massive user base of 900 million to 1 billion with rapid growth. 2.A deep ecosystem including groups, channels, Bot economy, ad revenue, and potential Web3 applications. 3.TON blockchain integration, enhancing payment and application functionalities. 4.An expected IPO and its role in the broader blockchain and AI landscape. Telegram's valuation is based on user scale × monetization potential × technology moat × IPO expectations, with some influence from its blockchain interactions with TON. 2.2 iMe's Growth Potential Currently, iMe's Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) is around $20 million, with 18 million users. While this is significantly lower than Telegram's 900+ million users, its interoperability with Telegram provides substantial user growth potential. Considering Web3 applications with over 10 million real registered users are rare, iMe's niche appeal could further bolster its valuation. With a 600% growth over 3.5 years, iMe has promising expansion potential. Factors contributing to iMe’s ability to achieve 5-20% of Telegram’s valuation: 1.User Growth: If iMe captures 5-10% of Telegram's user base (45M-90M users), its market valuation would rise accordingly. 2.Monetization Potential: Ad revenue, VIP subscriptions, Binance Pay integration, and staking services expand its financial ecosystem. 3.Token Utility & Burning Mechanism: Increased usage of Lime token for payments and transactions enhances its long-term value. 4.Multi-Chain Support: Since Telegram prioritizes TON, other blockchain tokens need a third-party solution—iMe fills this gap. 5.TON Ecosystem Integration: iMe strengthens its value by serving as a gateway for blockchain applications within Telegram’s ecosystem. 2.3 Other Reasons for the Valuation Growth Potential of iMe Messenger There are many projects in the market with overestimated and inflated values, but it is indeed difficult to find undervalued Web3 projects. The core reasons for this mostly relate to the operational strategies of project teams over a period of time, project management styles, and the experiences and habits of personnel. There are even intricate connections with partner institutions, investors, and other stakeholders. Apart from the valuation growth potential points compared in sections 2.1 and 2.2, the hidden value and potential of the iMe project are also related to the following factors: 1.iMe’s operational model primarily exists within its internal ecosystem and lacks sufficient collaboration with media, rating agencies, and third-party content platforms. This has resulted in valuable updates and the five advantages we mentioned earlier being largely unknown to many investors and enthusiasts. 2.Limited collaboration with KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) in value-driven or hype-driven streams. In fact, this project was discovered as early as the end of 2021, but we waited to see if others would also identify its value and write about it. However, we found that very few people had actually created content on it. Later, after communicating with the project team, we discovered that they indeed lacked deep collaboration with content institutions and KOLs. Unlike 2018, when PR agencies were of relatively high quality—such as Block72 and Winkrypto, which had at least dozens of team members providing comprehensive support—by 2025, many so-called PR agencies consisted of just one or two individuals. This has significantly increased the difficulty for project teams in making the right choices and the probability of encountering pitfalls. This situation is as challenging as distinguishing between Dogecoin in 2020 and the tens of thousands of meme tokens emerging daily today. 3.Since 2024, Lime has only gradually been listed on new exchanges. Previously, it was primarily listed on Gate, which is known for its extensive range of trading pairs but lacks significant independent AMA (Ask Me Anything) sessions or media promotion through research reports. From 2023 onwards, many major exchanges adopted a strategy of listing only entirely new projects. This strategy undoubtedly impacted a group of high-quality projects that were listed around 2021 and had successfully endured the bear market. With the recent wave of meme token promotion and the market adjustments of 2024-2025, exchange operators and traders have begun to recognize the underlying issues in purely new projects and meme-based projects. 4.The team has a strong technical mindset, focusing on R&D while lacking market operation experience. This issue is not unique to iMe’s team. Even a project as robust as Algorand, which had an MIT-backed “king bomb” team, later faced operational chaos due to blind hiring of Web2 product managers who lacked experience and made misguided decisions. 5.Insufficient utilization of traffic and promotional platforms. During due diligence, we found that the iMe team produces high-quality animations and content. However, these materials are often only published within their own community and Twitter. Many high-quality users are not necessarily effective disseminators—just as in real life, many exceptionally talented individuals are not good at expressing themselves or spreading information. Therefore, leveraging high-quality third-party platforms and engaging in interactive campaigns (such as writing contests) is also key to furthering brand building. In summary, the fundamental prerequisite for a project to have sufficient growth potential is that its core technology is strong and its sector and market trends are favorable. However, a lack of brand promotion and groundwork is one of the primary reasons why high-quality content goes undiscovered. This issue can be mitigated with the support of large institutions, major exchanges, or influential figures. This is also one of the main reasons why undervalued projects have room for valuation growth. 3. The Impact of the BINANCE:TONUSDT TON Ecosystem on IME’s Valuation 3.1 Growth Potential of the TON Ecosystem TONUSDT TON, as the decentralized blockchain platform officially supported by Telegram, encompasses multiple application scenarios, including DeFi and GameFi. Telegram is actively promoting the TON ecosystem. 1.TON’s growth potential: TON currently has a market valuation exceeding $10 billion, and with its integration into the Telegram ecosystem, its value could potentially double in the future. 2.Potential of TON payments: IME has a built-in TON wallet, gradually making it one of the most important payment and transaction gateways within the TON ecosystem. This undeniably enhances IME’s long-term product value. Although the Lime token has not yet been launched on the TON chain, this development is likely imminent. 3.Binding effect between TON and Telegram: TON is poised to become the Web3 core of Telegram’s economic system. As a Telegram-compatible all-in-one development application, IME is naturally positioned to benefit from this ecosystem’s growth. 3.2 Direct Impact of TON on IME’s Valuation The expansion of the TON ecosystem means that IME is no longer just a messaging app—it is becoming a Web3 gateway. If TON’s overall valuation grows to $20 billion or beyond, then iMe, as an important Web3 entry point, will also see an increase in its valuation. TON’s decentralized payment services and smart contract capabilities, combined with iMe’s built-in multi-chain wallet, provide strong support for Telegram-based iMe users. This transforms iMe from a mere communication tool into a cross-chain financial and social platform. (This also applies to native iMe users—i.e., institutional users who directly use the iMe software without relying on the Telegram client—bringing new users to Telegram’s ecosystem and creating potential TON adopters.) Risks and Challenges Of course, the development of iMe Messenger is not without risks. As a platform based on decentralization and blockchain technology, it faces multiple challenges similar to those of Telegram, including technical security, user privacy protection, and regulatory policies. There is also the systemic risk of Telegram suddenly ceasing API development (although such a move would be self-sabotaging for Telegram itself). Additionally, the Web3 market is highly competitive, with new products continuously emerging, exerting competitive pressure on iMe. How to ensure user privacy and security while continuously optimizing product features and enhancing user experience will be key to iMe Messenger’s future development. 4. Comprehensive Summary: Factors Affecting iMe’s Valuation Based on the above analysis, iMe’s development trajectory and speed suggest that it has the potential to reach 5-10% of Telegram’s user base. The expansion and growth of iMe also contribute to the overall expansion and development of Telegram. At the same time, by leveraging the mutual benefits of the Telegram and TON ecosystems, iMe can create additional value. This enables iMe to benefit from Telegram’s strong user retention moat while positioning itself as a potential Web3 or secondary version of Telegram. From the perspectives of user base, business model, TON enablement, integrated wallet, and Lime token functionalities, IME has the potential to achieve a valuation of 5%-20% of Telegram’s estimated value, equating to a valuation of over $1.5 billion. As the Telegram ecosystem matures and the TON network further develops, iMe’s market value may continue to grow, with potential for further valuation increases. Overall, iMe LIMEUSDT Lime is not merely a secondary development software utilizing Telegram’s API. Instead, it is a Web3 social communication and payment tool with significantly stronger utility. Its valuation model is closer to a combination of Wallet + Telegram + TON + AI, making it more akin to a Web3 version of WeChat. It holds the potential to become a fully realized Web3 social application. Hopefully, it will ultimately succeed alongside Telegram. Next, we will explore the long-term value of several public blockchain networks. May the force be with you~ Friendly Reminder: This article is created for research and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Web3 space is simultaneously full of opportunities and risks. We encourage readers to conduct their own research (DYOR) on every project or topic.
First (38.2%) and second (61.8%) support level as shown. Ichimoku cloud also turning bearish again. Will the crypto market be pulled along, or will it finally decouple (less likely)?
At the time of analysis, XAUUSD is consolidating and has broken above key resistance levels. The long trade setup is based on several factors: Strong Bullish Trend: XAUUSD has been in a strong uptrend over the past several weeks/months, supported by global inflationary fears, potential economic uncertainty, and dovish central bank policies. Fibonacci Extension and Price Action: Using Fibonacci extensions, the price target of 3067 is derived from the previous swings and the structure of the bullish move. The extension levels indicate that price could extend further upwards toward this key zone. RSI and Momentum Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators are showing signs of continuation, suggesting that the price may continue to rise until it reaches the 3067 zone. Price Pattern Analysis: There is a potential bullish chart pattern (such as an ascending triangle or a continuation pattern) suggesting further upward momentum. Traders can look to enter the market on pullbacks to support, targeting the 3067 level. Once the price reaches the 3067 target, technical signals suggest a significant risk of a reversal. The rationale for a short position following the long trade is based on: Overbought Conditions: At the 3067 zone, price action may become overheated. The RSI could be entering overbought territory, and momentum indicators like the MACD could show signs of divergence, signaling that the uptrend is weakening and a reversal is imminent. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: After reaching 3067, a significant retracement could take place. The next major support zone lies much lower, potentially around the 2700-2800 range, as indicated by Fibonacci levels. Bearish Divergence: A bearish divergence between price and indicators could signal that the momentum driving the price up is weakening. As the price struggles to make new highs, this could be a sign of exhaustion. Potential for a Crash: Gold has historically experienced sharp corrections after strong bullish rallies, often caused by macroeconomic shifts, changes in market sentiment, or a sudden risk-off event. A failure to break above the 3067 zone could trigger a sell-off, with the potential for a significant crash.
The RTY one hour time frame is in an up trend. The market is making higher highs and higher lows. The market has an up Fibonacci with an extension price point 2170.1 about +779 ticks above the market. As long as the market stays above the up trend line. It will be a good idea to look for long ideas towards the Fibonacci extension. Entry: Counter trend line break bullish above the up trend line. STOP: 2047.6 LIMIT: 2170.1 Another entry idea: If the risk is too large. It will be a good idea to turn to the five minute time frame and to look for long ideas towards the one hour time frame limit.
Trade Idea: DAX 40 (15m Chart) Price is currently retracing towards a higher timeframe Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone. This area aligns with previous supply and offers a high-probability short setup. Once price enters this FVG, watch for bearish confirmation such as a rejection candle or a shift in market structure on lower timeframes.
After hit first target 97, now has offereda a pullback to the key 90 level Indicators showing good potential, momentum, sttregnt, directional. Part of a market idea