Clearly the trend shows that we are going to 61 and this correction has not yet ended.
Hello, XAUUSD has once again surged to a record high of 3245.515 this Friday, driven by a weakening dollar and renewed U.S.-China tensions. As uncertainty grows, gold continues to shine as a safe haven asset—bolstered by fears of a potential recession and lingering inflation concerns. The rally is further supported by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon begin cutting interest rates. While some analysts anticipate a short-term pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, fueled by rate cut hopes, global instability, and ongoing strong demand. Currently, gold is hovering around a key resistance level at 3272.103 . This area could mark the final push—designed to trap overly optimistic buyers—before a potential bearish reversal. If this resistance holds, it could trigger a significant downside move, possibly targeting the 1-year pivot point (PP) at 2466.313 . Although current conditions may not seem to support such a drop, these are exactly the kind of unexpected moves market manipulators might orchestrate. Remember what happened when Trump posted bullish comments followed by a 90-day tariff break? Stocks temporarily soared. The takeaway? Anything is possible. One could argue there's an effort to stabilize the USD, masked by public optimism that doesn’t always reflect economic reality. This all points to a potential bigger play unfolding—a move that temporarily strengthens the dollar, possibly as part of a broader long-term strategy. We’re likely to see sharp bursts of USD strength followed by weakness, creating a rollercoaster pattern as the U.S. works to rebuild and gradually reinforce its currency. Trump’s current leverage comes from the power of the U.S. consumer—arguably among the most valuable in the world. Over time, more countries may be compelled to strike favorable deals with the U.S. to avoid economic fallout from imposed tariffs. It’s like a trial period for a premium service: first, you get a taste of the benefits without tariffs, and once you're accustomed to it, the terms change—creating a stark contrast that acts as a negotiation tool. This “shock factor” strategy—swinging from favorable to harsh conditions—puts other nations in a position of urgency and increases the likelihood of deal-making. While technicals and fundamentals still play a role in the market, tariffs are currently the main catalyst behind the scenes. In summary: ? XAUUSD Market Overview – April 2025 ? Current Status Latest High: 3245.515 ? (Record-breaking) Key Resistance: 3272.103 Trend: Bullish momentum fueled by: Weaker USD ? Fed rate cut expectations ? Recession & inflation fears ? Geopolitical tension (U.S.–China) ?⚠️ ? Potential Scenarios Condition Market Reaction ? Break above 3272.103 More upside likely – bull trend continuation ?? ? Rejection at 3272.103 Bearish reversal – trap for late buyers ?? ? Bearish Target: 1Y Pivot Point @ 2466.313 ? Underlying Narrative USD Stabilization Strategy: Behind-the-scenes moves to strengthen dollar temporarily. Tariff Manipulation: Market shocks used as leverage in international trade talks. Trump Factor: Tariffs → Shock value → Deals → Strengthen USD via negotiation. Psychology: "Free trial" tactic – benefits removed to push for favorable deals. ? Key Takeaway If 3272.103 holds as resistance → Bearish move ahead If broken → Expect continued bullish momentum Good luck out there! The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1D-1Y timeframes! No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
Looking for a potential bounce play on TAO. Price action shows a clear deviation below support followed by a strong recovery. Currently eyeing a retest of the demand zone around 195, where I’ve placed a limit long entry. Entry: 195 TP: 270 SL: 160 Expecting a bit of chop in the mid-zone before continuation toward the 271 resistance zone. If the bounce plays out, this gives a solid 2.7R setup. Will monitor volume and structure confirmation around the entry zone.
Bought of the 200 sma. It's at the 100 sma. Both on the daily. Buy low, sell high, right? I am getting into a NET PROFITABLE collar over earnings. :-) CAN'T LOSE from here.
Volume and trend analysis showing key levels to watch. But in this market single chart analysis is not enough. I look at Dollar Index, Gold, 10Y Treasury Bonds. All indicate low confidence in USA economy. Unless these improve I will remain bearish even if SPX,SPY breaks to the upside. But most likely the markets will reverse at max resistance, as the hedge funds who are under liquidity pressure will start selling again
Its not hard to find correlations in life...but this seems a little blatant. So I thought I would show that only one debt shelf ever resulted in no fall after it occurrs...an interesting finding... But just think of this logic...If the bonds are rising in a solid manner to the toon of even the 3 month going from 2022 levels of .002% to now some 4.2% or so....why does anyone think that things can keep going up when you fund everything but what you need in the country. Lets give you guys some homework: how much debt was spent on new highway improvements on bridges and tunnels(i see you lincoln), expressways etc. how much debt was used to build major power generation in Cali and NY so their brown outs aren't so bad....to which I say, those two states should just suck it up and allow more data centers so silly cat pics or anime can be generated on GPUs eh?? how much debt was actually spent on the poor condition of sports complexes or school infrastructure so to give children the ability to play...so that the NFL doesn't have to try for like 3 month to encourage play-60....only an hour of play folks...yeah, that'll keep the Coke sugars well balanced eh? Finally how much debt was spent towards improving the very secondary and neglicted hard educations...or what some call vo-tech, which you need to repair/build these mass construction projects and splice cables over 200 feet in the air on mountainsides involving high tension wires after hurricanes like Helene barrel through places. Yeah..well its about as much as the fellow "make this place great again" person has contributed their time and a bit of their NVDA or PLTR proceeds to a local community center or to a local youth developmental program for kids in rough neighborhoods....oh wait...that's for the government to do, so they can blame government for over spending on...the things above??? As two members of royalty I attended school with, both from active kings who sent a princess and prince to two of my schools said, "When they realize there are more of them then US, you begin to see a shift in attitude which makes US accountable. But when they think the few of US are more powerful then all of them combined you can see how your people believe in shadow governments or Illuminati( another name for "Deep State" back in that era..hmm where did that go eh??). Cause the whole government is made up of neighbors and the military is made up of college friends or past coworkers- but only simpletons think a title or a uniform/suit makes everything change- it doesn't". another idea later tonight and linked in the comments after posting will show the 10 year yield and its relation to following crashes
I've been experimenting with elliot waves and trend based fibonacci extension patterns. in this case, combined with the bearish resistance line that's been pushing us down these past few months, signal looks to be a short term trend reversal.
using the trend line and the movement that BTC has, it is going up, but a small downward movement is expected before growth
Typically these longer term support zones get respected for a retracement. Long here
I have marked out a potential 1:86R trade here. The price is not allowed to reach the buy zone before or after the purple timing window. It must reach it within this window for the trade setup to stand a good chance. The take profit target is 0.37429 but you can leave the trade running for the all time highs, I just think that is the start of the first potential resistance zone and I would rather take profits there and then find a new trade setup. Probability of success: 30% Risk to reward rating 10/10 (+4) Overall trade rating 8.5/10 Why is the probability of success only 30%? Because it is a weekend and come Monday we might see a quick flush lower to take out all the buyers on the weekend. However the new week opening gap doesn’t necessarily have to be 100% filled and therefore there is still a good chance that if this trade is running in profit come Monday the weekend low will hold.