#GMT was in a real down trend from 2022 and the price went down to 1/100 of its ATH ! i think coins like this can stop falling when we see a divergence in their RSI and also we can expect a rising if a harmonic pattern tells us this coin is on a demand which it is ! its a good price for this coin to make a buy and sell it when it hits the flip line this trade can give us about 80% profit 1X leverage !
Taking advantage of the fractal nature of the markets by scalping my Momentum Theory mechanical setups on the 1 second chart and holding them to Daily levels. This is a New York session trade taken LIVE and shows my thought process every step of the way. I didn't take any losses on this one, but I usually would expect 2-3 losses before hitting the right entry. Because of this, whenever I'm scalping the seconds charts I risk very small (0.03% per position) and size in to the trade at specific intervals as it continues in my direction. In my opinion, it's really important to hold these types of trades for longer durations than traditional scalping. Traditional scalping advice is to aim for 1 - 2R, hold for a short duration, and aim for a high winrate. I pretty much recommend the exact opposite advice. Banking in 75R on this trade basically means I can lose the next 75 trades I take and still be at BE. If you follow my mechanical style of trading, you know there's a higher chance of me hitting another 75R trade than losing 75 in a row. When I string a few of these in a row, trading becomes completely emotion-free and a purely process-driven endeavor. On to the next!
Today, I would like to provided another idea after following the market for a long time to help you make a decision.
Bitcoin’s price history continues to follow a repeating Three-Drive pattern, where each major bullish cycle spans approximately 35 months before reaching exhaustion. The timing is eerily precise—each peak has occurred around November or December, marking the end of a euphoric rally and the beginning of a painful correction. In 2017, Bitcoin peaked at $20,893 in December before plunging into a deep correction. The 2021 cycle topped at $70,655 in November, triggering another sharp decline into the demand zone. Now, Drive 3 is unfolding, potentially leading to a cycle high around $250,179—right into a major supply zone. The confluence of trendlines and Fibonacci projections suggests that this could be the next critical turning point. Will history repeat itself with another cycle-ending rejection, or will Bitcoin break free from this structured rhythm and enter price discovery beyond expectations? If the supply zone holds, a major pullback into the demand areas could be imminent. However, a confirmed breakout above this range could invalidate past trends and send Bitcoin into uncharted territory. The market is at a defining moment, are we about to witness another historic Bitcoin peak, or the beginning of something far greater? Your comment will be appreciated on this.
#S or the former #FANTOM is making a perfect pattern in low and also high time frames ! here in lower time frames the market hit a supply zone which forced the price to go down a little but the main demand zone is untouched and this can be a sign of more correction to the demand zone ! check out the long term analysis on this coin too ! https://www.tradingview.com/chart/FTMUSD/OHMu3dTw-FTM-IS-EXPLODING/
My core bias this year is for the Japanese yen to outperform, and for yen pairs such as GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY etc to suffer. We are currently within a countertrend bounce against a much larger bearish move on GBP/JPY, but a doji formed just beneath a resistance cluster on Thursday to suggest the bounce is pausing, if not correcting itself. The 1-hour chart shows that volumes were rising while prices fell from Thursday's high, and volumes were lower as they recouped some of those losses. Yet with GBP/JPY now trying to form a bearish outside candle on the 1-hour chart, perhaps a swing high has already formed. The near-term bias is bearish while prices remain beneath 192.50, and for prices to fall to at least the 38.2% Fibonacci ratio ~190.75. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Disclaimer : Geopolitical factors are currently a major concern. This data analysis aims to serve as a fundamental basis derived directly from official sources to assess the USD exchange rate and the likelihood of future monetary policies under normal economic conditions, excluding geopolitical factors that create sentiment different from the actual economic conditions. H.4.1 Report FRED CME FedWatch Fed Balance Sheet: Securities Held Outright: Increased by $38 million. Reverse Repo (RRP): Significantly decreased by $51.875 million in the latest period. Reserve Balances: Increased by $42.962 million. TGA Data Current balance: $809,154 million. Change this week: Decreased by $8,799 million. Change from last year: Decreased by $22,726 million significantly. RRP A significant decrease in the last 3 days, from $99.65 billion on February 10 to $67.82 billion on February 13, with a total decrease of -$31.83 billion. M2 Money Supply Data: M2 value as of December 2024: $21,533.8 billion. Change from the previous month (Nov 2024): +$85.5 billion. Change from last year (Dec 2023): +$808.4 billion. Fed Interest Rate Decision: Main decision: The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. Bank Reserve Interest Rate: Remains at 4.4%. Primary Credit Rate: Remains at 4.5%. The Federal Reserve will continue its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy by continuing to reduce holdings of Treasury securities and MBS. Market Expectations from CME FedWatch Tool: Current target rate: 425-450 bps (4.25% - 4.50%). Probability for an interest rate of 400-425 bps: 2.5%. Probability for an interest rate of 425-450 bps: 97.5%. Based on this analysis The Federal Reserve has a policy to maintain interest rates stable in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. Despite the significant decrease in Reverse Repo and the decrease in TGA, as well as the significant increase in M2 Money Supply, this policy is maintained to support economic stability and reduce excess liquidity in the market. The high probability (97.5%) of the market to maintain or increase the interest rate also reflects strong expectations for a conservative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in the short term. Impact on USD Overall Based on the analysis of data from the Fed Balance Sheet, TGA, RRP, M2 Money Supply, and interest rate expectations, USD is likely to remain stable to strengthen in the short term, especially due to the tight monetary policy (Quantitative Tightening/QT) and the high probability of interest rates remaining in the 4.25%-4.50% range. Components RRP decreased significantly by -$31.83B in 3 days, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A decrease in RRP means banks and financial institutions are withdrawing their funds from The Fed and are likely to move into other assets. This increases liquidity in the market, which may weaken the USD due to more dollars circulating, potentially lowering the exchange rate. M2 Money Supply increased by +$808.4B YoY, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A significant increase in M2 indicates more money circulating in the economy, which could pressure the purchasing power of the USD. If this growth continues, it resembles a loosening of monetary policy, which could weaken the USD in the long term. The Fed remains with QT & does not lower interest rates, monetary contraction, USD may strengthen The QT policy and no interest rate cuts indicate that the Fed still wants to control inflation and maintain tight monetary policy. This could attract investors to USD-based assets (Treasury Yields), keeping the USD strong compared to other currencies. TGA decreased by -$8.8B weekly, -$22.7B YoY, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A decrease in TGA balance indicates that the government is withdrawing funds for spending. This means more dollars entering the economy, which could add pressure to weaken the USD in the short term. You can prepare a trading strategy based on the following scenarios: Bullish USD if scenario: The Fed maintains QT, does not cut interest rates, and investors continue buying USD-based assets. Neutral USD if scenario: The Fed maintains interest rates, but RRP & M2 Money Supply continue to rise. Bearish USD if scenario: RRP continues to decrease drastically, M2 increases significantly, and the Fed starts considering interest rate cuts. Short Term (1-3 months): USD is likely to remain strong due to tight monetary policy, but if liquidity continues to increase from RRP and M2, weakening could occur in the next quarter. Long Term (6-12 months): If M2 continues to rise and the Fed changes its policy towards interest rate cuts, USD will gradually weaken. Focus on market reactions to liquidity data such as RRP and M2. If RRP drops drastically & M2 rises, USD weakens. If the Fed maintains QT & high interest rates, USD remains stable. Pay attention to the next FOMC Meeting & liquidity data (M2 & RRP) for further USD trend confirmation. Important Note: Treat the above analysis as a fundamental basis in making your trading decisions. It is suitable for swing traders, but for the short term, it is important to consider geopolitical factors. ICEUS:DXY ICEUS:DX1!
I think anyone with a couple of brain cells can agree that anything that is a natural function of buying and selling should have no linear correlation. But, you may only have one so don't blow a fuse here Einstein.
#TON made a really huge down spike to take the last liq remaining at the lower prices so we can expect a good rising in it BUT THERE IS ALWAYS 2 SIDE OF A COIN ! the other side is using the made demand as a flip zone this means it works like a supply and forces the market to go deeper ! this is the worst scenario of this coin and i dont think this gonna happen (at least i hope not !) any way use stop losses and be carefull this market is full of profits and losses ! check out the best scenario for this coin too ! https://www.tradingview.com/chart/TONUSDT/0c1X74qX-TON-update/ https://www.tradingview.com/chart/TONUSD/dOZJ1OhE-TONCOIN-PERFECT-BULLISH-PATTERN/
my analysis is on the picture alongside with my trade idea