The new year has started strong with a clear MSS and retrace to the upside. The longer term picture is set for gold to take out the ATH made in October of last year. Donald trump's inauguration day is approaching on the 20th of January along with his long list of policies and investors are unsure which way the tide will turn. Trump is intending on increasing Import taxes between 10%-25% across Mexico, Europe, China and Canada, in which economists predict retaliation resulting in a tariff war and causing significant economic damage. This could directly affect Inflation rate throughout the year as a 1% increase in tariff's against the US could be seen as a 0.1% increase in inflation due to the increase in importation costs. Gas and Oil prices could be looking to increase in Europe as Ukraine cuts the pipeline the runs oil from Russia directly into Europe allowing them to have cheaper oil. This is the second and final pipeline that ran from Russia to Europe, after the Nord stream pipeline was blown up by the US in September of 2022. All this is taking place to hurt Russia financially as disrupt the growth in their economy. But all whilst this is happening, Russia are selling their oil at a discount to countries like Turkey and India for a discount and this allows them to break it down and 'blend' their oil into their own sources and labelling it their own, before selling it back off to places like Europe at a premium. The US will most likely use this opportunity to strengthen their own economy at the cost of its ally by selling them their own oil at a premium to make up for oil lost from the Russian pipeline cut off. All this has been orchestrated by the US and as a result, it is backfiring on their own which will damage the European economy as soaring energy costs forces many business especially in the automotive sector to close down as the plants cannot sustain this increase causing mass lay offs and closures. During all this uncertainty, investors are holding back and instead putting their money in safer commodities such as precious metals like Gold and Silver which could help drive prices up before a potential market correction later in the year.
The first thing that may jump out at you on the chart is that it is not a Renko chart. TradingView does not allow strategies to be posted when on a Renko chart. However, I wanted to publish the following ideas from my journey in creating a trading strategy for a Renko chart. I didn't realize I wouldn't be able to publish it on the chart itself (or anywhere) until after I'd completed the first phase of it. To see this on a Renko chart, you can convert the chart to Renko, set the timeframe to 1 minute and then the blocksize to 20 (for CL1! or WTI) using a close, traditional setting, and no wicks. I had several goals I wanted to achieve when I started building this strategy. Learn PineScript. The best way to learn a new programming language is to have a practical target to reach. Codify some of the ideas I have been putting together over the past several years on trading with Renko charts. Have a way to remove emotions out of entering and exiting trades. TradingView does not allow for strategies to be published on Renko charts due to some of the nuances with the charts that can distort results of tests. However, once you understand some of these scenarios, you can look for them and adjust. As for the strategy, to-date, it is based on three indicators: the Least Squares Moving Average , Donchian Channels , and Linear Regression . I wanted all of the inputs to be configurable like the underlying indicators themselves. As I got into the development and testing of ideas (I started over many different times :D), I realized there were other parameters I wanted be able to configure and added the as I went. The approach (as of now): Create a TV strategy that could be used for back testing The strategy should be well supported on Renko charts with a common setup and configurations The strategy could be applied to Renko charts and be configurable enough to support all types of markets For the Renko charts, I typically go with a static setup. As an example, for CL1! or WTI, I use a blocksize of 0.20 or 20 ticks using the closing price and a traditional configuration. I do not use wicks on the charts. I set the timeframe to 1 minute (this is the length of time needed at the sustained price to print the specific brick). In TV strategies, my understanding is that until the brick prints, the strategy won’t be executed for the strategy. I touch on some of the ramifications later but for now know this is probably one of many reasons strategies won’t be published on Renko charts. For the strategy, I wanted to create something that is reactive. I wanted it to be able to detect patterns or the beginnings of some type of pattern and then look for some type of evolution on the incoming bars. One thing I realized during testing is that having a “lookback” introduced latency. Think of the strategy as a series of or layers of filters. As the strategy moves through the execution process for each bar/brick, the filters become more restrictive and constrained. My goal was to be able to back test ideas that gave me the largest profit factor with a minimum number of trades and drawdown. Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA): This is the first layer of the three filters. J Basically, there is an entry and exit threshold that the LSMA is compared against to determine if there is a change in direction with either a crossover or crossunder. If there is a cross, then the first condition to enter a trade is met. In the strategy, this is the only configuration that is turned on by default. Use the LSMA for Flat Detection : If enabled, will detect if the LSMA has not changed brick over brick. If this condition is detected, it will disable the entry of both longs and short. The rationale being that if flat, the market is in short term consolidation and new entries should not be made. With the LSMA length default set to 5, this rarely happens. Use the LSMA for Full Direction Detection : This enables a couple of additional checks that can influence the order process. Is the LSMA direction cross in sync with the price direction (e.g., if the LSMA is crossing over (up) but the brick direction is red (down), then the two are not in sync and entries should be disabled Is the LSMA, on a crossover (up) greater than the last LSMA high (vice versa for a cross under (down)). This can detect scenarios where price is consolidating but not necessarily making new highs or lows. This will keep trades for triggering during this consolidation. Donchian Channels : The second layer in the filters. The initial setting for this is a length of 5. By default, this layer is disabled. If enabled, then the Basis of the DC is used to filter out trades where the price is positioned contrary to it. If the DC is enabled, to enter a long trade, the close must be above the Basis and for a short, the close must be below the Basis. Otherwise, entries are disabled. Use the Basis for Flat Detection : Like the LSMA, if bar over bar the Basis of the DC turns flat, any trades will be disabled. Like the LSMA, the purpose of this flat detection is for consolidation and to not take trades while the market is consolidating. Use the Basis for Full Direction Detection : If enabled, like the LSMA, enforces alignment of the DC’s Basis and price direction. And, like the LSMA, if the Basis has not taken out the previous high or low, then the entry process is disabled. For both the LSMA and the DC Channel, enabling these last two configs can become restrictive. As you experiment with them with the market of your choice, you can fine tune them to fit your trading / account style. The intent of both flat detection and the current to previous high/low is to filter out conditions that lead to price churn and trading thrash. The indicators up to now have been reactionary to price movement. Regardless of a larger view of direct or bias, an entry is triggered; long or short. What if you want to trade with a bias or at least back test to see how it may influence your trades? What can you use to determine a bias. The method I chose in this strategy is Linear Regression. Linear Regression : The third layer of the filters. This filter is used to determine if the trend is up, down, or flat (transitioning between up and down). Once enabled, trades will only be taken in the direction of the trend (unless in transition). With this filter, you can configure the length and the threshold to detect consolidation. The length will tune how fast a change in direction is detected while the threshold will determine how far from 0 the slope of the regression must be for it to indicate neutral. Additional configurations : Brick Threshold to Pull Rip Cord : Once an entry is made, it can go contrary to your thinking. This setting will let you control how far you are willing for price to drive from original entry contrary to what you were thinking. Close the Position on First Brick: To keep profits close, this will exit any position (long or short) once the first brick contrary to the current position is printed. You will want to experiment with this and back test. Once it does exit, if the position is triggered again in the next several blocks, it will try to enter. Consolidation Length : This config controls the slope threshold in the LR to differentiate from up and down. Again, full disclosure, TradingView does not allow strategies to be published on Renko charts. If you want to experiment with it, you can convert the chart to Renko and configure it as outlined above. Then, you can experiment with various configurations and see what type of results you get. Some things to watch out for: If you apply this to a US stock and focus on the regular session, then there will be gaps at the open that won’t appear as gaps on Renko charts. However, the strategy can try to make it look like you had a great fill on the open (which most likely is not the case). Additional work needs to be done to filter out this specific scenario Limit orders should not be considered in the strategy on a Renko chart because the brick will only be executed when the brick prints. Market orders should only be used and only when the close for the brick prints.
KCS maybe the only exchange token that is on its way up imo Bitget shouldn’t be out pacing it but we’ll see.
As analyzed in weekly summary, gold should at least rise up to 2715 this week. Therefore, I am looking for buying opportunity from 2678 today. 1st target will be 2715.
SUI 1d Still in a valid uptrend since there is still no breakdown of the upwards channel. Price is looking to repeat previous "M" pattern where prz lies in the trendline support which also falls on the 1d/4h OB. If this holds, we can see Sui to print a NATH(new all time high). Whereas a breakdown might send price to crash between $3-$4 levels to raid all liquidities resting below. We can see from previous swing high(green circle), draw a line to mark this level and when this line & the trendline support meets, price rally upwards from this area. Expecting a repeat of the same scenario. Previous swing high(orange circle) draw a line and currently, price is looking to approach the level where line & trendline support meets again, plus there is also a 4h/1d OB in the zone. Base on past movements, this is a high probability setup offering a good Reward with minimal Risk. Invalidation would be a break below $4.
this is not financial advice but educational content . Lets GO!!!
The gold market restructures with a strong demand build-up, steadily pacing through the $2700s. The prevailing sentiment indicates a potential to surpass the mitigation price at $2722, signaling continued bullish momentum.Do well to hedge along with Akcapitals.Follow for more insight as the next insight will be deciphered , comment and boost idea
• Nothing exciting, staying in cash, not looking to enter any longs • Significantly downsized my position sizes and average losses, which improved my RR. Taking gains and losses early if anything • Commodities are the clear winners, so I'm glad that a large portion of my passive account is there, good hedge
Overall Trend: The PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD pair has been riding a bullish trend over recent months, with gold prices hitting all-time highs in September 2024 near $2,635 per ounce. Currently, the pair remains above the 50- and 200-period moving averages, reinforcing the continuation of the upward trajectory. Key Support and Resistance Levels: Support: $2,657 : Now acting as a key level after previously serving as strong resistance during pullbacks. $2,621 : A previously identified support zone during price corrections. Resistance: $2,723 : A significant resistance zone, historically alternating as support and resistance since October 2024. $2,750 : Found at the lower boundary of the premium zone but would require a break of the descending trendline and the resistance above. Technical Patterns and Indicators: Candlestick Patterns: Recent bullish candlestick formations like "marubozu" and "bullish engulfing" indicate strong buying pressure. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The daily RSI is hovering near the overbought zone (above 59), signaling potential for pullbacks or consolidation. SMC (Smart Money Concepts) and Wyckoff: The current structure aligns with an accumulation phase, suggesting a high probability of a subsequent bullish breakout, consistent with Wyckoff principles. Key Fundamental Drivers: US Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve's recent half-point rate cut has added upward momentum to gold prices. Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and other regions are boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Economic Data: Upcoming US economic reports, including Q4 GDP and the PCE Price Index, could sway market sentiment and drive volatility. Jan 14 - 1:30 pm GMT 0 - Producer Price Index (PPI): ECONOMICS:USPPIMM Jan 15 - 1:30 pm GTM 0 - Consumer Price Index (CPI): ECONOMICS:USIRMM ECONOMICS:USIRYY Jan 16 - 1:30 pm GMT 0 - Retail Sales ECONOMICS:USRSMM and Unemployment Claims $ ECONOMICS:USIJC Potential Scenarios: Bullish Scenario: If XAU/USD breaks above the descending trendline at $2,688, the price could target the $2,723 zone and, with enough momentum, push towards $2,750. Bearish Scenario: In the event of corrections, the pair may find support at $2,657, or in the case of a deeper pullback, near the base of the expansion channel at approximately $2,621. Seasonal Considerations: Historically, the start of the year tends to be favorable for gold due to increased demand for safe-haven assets and portfolio rebalancing by institutional investors.
Price has been moving with a daily range since September 2024. Resistance sits at 1.13600 whist support sits at 1.11200 Price most recently double topped at resistance and could be on its way back to support.