From the point where we marked start on the chart, MEW appears to be forming a bullish QM. As long as the green zone holds, it can move toward the targets. A 4-hour candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this pattern. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry Comment if you have any questions Thank You
This idea is just for educational purpose and it's not any buying or selling signal.
Market Overview: Bullish Reversal in CHF/USD The Swiss Franc (CHF) / U.S. Dollar (USD) currency pair has recently broken out of a Falling Wedge pattern, signaling a bullish trend reversal. This breakout is significant as it suggests the end of a prolonged downtrend and the beginning of a new upward momentum. Traders who capitalize on this pattern could benefit from potential long opportunities. This analysis will cover the chart pattern, key levels, trading setup, risk management, and market sentiment, providing a comprehensive professional breakdown of the CHF/USD price action. 1. Chart Pattern: Falling Wedge – Bullish Breakout A Falling Wedge is a well-known bullish reversal pattern that forms when price action creates lower highs and lower lows, but the slope of the highs is steeper than the lows. This leads to a narrowing structure that suggests sellers are losing strength, paving the way for a bullish breakout. Pattern Characteristics: ✔ Prior Downtrend: The CHF/USD pair was in a sustained bearish trend before forming the wedge. ✔ Converging Trendlines: Price action squeezed into a wedge formation, showing decreasing volatility. ✔ Breakout Confirmation: The price successfully broke above the wedge resistance, signaling a shift in market sentiment. ✔ Retest Possibility: Price may revisit the breakout zone before continuing its uptrend. A breakout from a falling wedge typically leads to a sharp bullish rally, making this a high-probability trading opportunity. 2. Key Technical Levels: Support & Resistance Support Zones (Buying Interest): ? 1.0835 – 1.1000: This zone has acted as strong support where buyers stepped in aggressively. ? 1.1071 – 1.1095: A short-term support level that aligns with recent price action, making it a critical stop-loss area. Resistance Zones (Profit Targets): ? 1.1483 – 1.1550 (Primary Resistance): Price has struggled at this level previously, making it the first target for a bullish move. ? 1.1600 (Major Resistance): If the uptrend continues, this level will act as the next major challenge. ? 1.1909 (Extended Target): A long-term resistance level where price has historically reversed. 3. Trading Strategy & Entry Setup Now that we have identified the breakout and key levels, let’s design a strategic trading plan. ? Entry Points for Long Trades: ✅ Aggressive Entry: Buy at the current price after the breakout, expecting continuation. ✅ Conservative Entry: Wait for a retest of the wedge breakout zone or support near 1.1071 – 1.1095 before entering long. ? Stop-Loss Placement (Risk Management): ❌ Stop below 1.1071: This level is a strong support area, and a break below it may invalidate the bullish setup. ❌ Alternative Stop below 1.1000: A safer option for long-term traders to avoid stop-hunting. ? Take-Profit Levels: ? Target 1: 1.1483 – 1.1550 (Primary Resistance Zone) ? Target 2: 1.1600 (Stronger resistance where partial profits can be booked) ? Target 3 (Extended): 1.1909 (For swing traders holding positions longer) ? Risk-Reward Ratio: A proper Risk-to-Reward (R:R) ratio of at least 1:2 should be followed for efficient trade management. This means: Risking 50 pips to gain 100 pips (or more) for profitable trading. 4. Market Sentiment & Confirmation Signals ✔ RSI (Relative Strength Index): Above 50? Bullish confirmation. Near 70? Overbought zone, potential pullback. ✔ MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Bullish Crossover? Strengthens buy signal. Divergence? Confirms price momentum. ✔ Volume Analysis: High volume on breakout? Confirms strong buying interest. Low volume? Beware of false breakout. ✔ Fundamental Factors: Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy: If SNB maintains dovish policies, CHF could weaken, pushing CHF/USD higher. US Federal Reserve Stance: A strong USD could slow CHF/USD gains. 5. Conclusion & Trading Plan ? Summary of Trade Setup: ✅ Bullish breakout from Falling Wedge – high-probability long trade ✅ Retest of breakout zone may offer better entry ✅ Major support at 1.1000 – 1.1071 ✅ Targeting 1.1550 – 1.1909 range ? Final Trading Plan: ? Buy CHF/USD above 1.1100 – 1.1150 ? Stop-loss below 1.1071 ? Take Profit 1: 1.1550 ? Take Profit 2: 1.1600 ? Take Profit 3 (Swing Trade): 1.1909 ? Pro Tip: Always confirm breakout volume before entering. Monitor economic events affecting CHF & USD. Use proper risk management (1-2% of account per trade). ? Final Verdict: ? CHF/USD is in a bullish setup after breaking out from a Falling Wedge. Traders should look for buy opportunities on pullbacks while targeting resistance levels. ?
Hey traders, what's up I've marked the key levels for Bitcoin on the chart. Right now, it's holding within the 4-hour supply and demand zone. But if this level breaks, I expect Bitcoin to drop all the way down to around $78K. For spot buyers, there’s no real risk at the moment. But if you're trading on margin and currently in the red, be extra cautious. The market will liquidate you first, then move on its way. Big thanks to everyone supporting my analysis with likes I will provide continuous updates under this analysis.
Bitcoin is approaching a key inflection zone where the Daily Downtrend Resistance and the Monthly Uptrend Support intersect. This confluence could be setting the stage for a major breakout or breakdown, and the next move could define BTC’s medium-term trend. ? Key Levels to Watch: Daily Downtrend Resistance (Red) – Price is testing this descending trendline again. Monthly Uptrend Support (Green) – Strong support held since August 2024. Fibonacci 0.5 Level (~79.3K) – Acting as mid-zone control point. Fibonacci 0.618 Golden Zone (~72K) – Strong historical retracement support. ? Bullish Scenario (Blue Arrow): If BTC breaks above the daily downtrend and holds above the green uptrend line: Possible target: 110K, aligning with the 1.0 Fibonacci extension. Would confirm continuation of the larger bullish trend. ? Bearish Scenario (Not drawn but implied): If BTC breaks down below 79K and the monthly trendline: Eyes on 72K for a potential bounce at the 0.618 Fib level. Below that, potential deeper retracement toward the 65K–60K zone. ⏳ Conclusion: BTC is sitting at a high-confluence zone. This is not the time to chase—wait for confirmation of breakout or breakdown before reacting.
Everyone is thinking about today, about how difficult it is to know whether a stock will rise or fall since Trump came to power!!! :-). On April 2nd, many things will become clear after the official publication of the tariffs, but it's true that with a person like Trump in power, ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN in the future!! As with any investment, you have to analyze all the variables that could affect its performance. Today we'll analyze TESLA!! , one of the hardest hit in the American market, mainly due to TRUMP!!! , FOR BEING TRUMP'S FRIEND!! :-). --> What does TESLA have AGAINST IT? 1) TARIFFS: If Trump punishes countries around the world with tariffs, they (mainly China) will fight back!! , and the one that WILL BE PUNISHED THE MOST will be TESLA for Elon Musk being in power alongside Trump. 2) CHINESE ELECTRIC CARS: The competition is clear! There are Chinese vehicle companies that will compete strongly with Tesla, mainly due to price, although from my point of view, Tesla will win because Tesla is a brand of reliability, while Chinese companies are not. 3) NASDAQ: If the US enters a recession or decline, all technology will fall sharply, and with it, obviously, Tesla. --> But what STRENGTHS does it have? 1) ELON MUSK IN POWER IN THE USA: We all know Elon Musk! And once in power, he will take full advantage of it to strengthen his companies in the coming months/years. 2) TESLA: New Tesla models and the world's most efficient batteries, in addition to the release of its first line of MOBILE PHONES, which we're all sure will be IMPRESSIVE!! 3) 40% YEAR-ROUND DROP: The sharp decline accumulated through 2025 makes this a company with GREAT appreciation potential, and at the slightest bit of good news, it will rise sharply. With these PROS and CONS, we now have the variables outside of mathematics that could affect the value. Now it's time for TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, and for that, I've published two charts: the one above for TESLA on a H1 timeframe and the one below for the NASDAQ on a H4 timeframe. Why the one for the NASDAQ? Because you always have to analyze the direction of the INDEX, since a global drop in technology would drag down the company even if the technicals were favorable. ---> How do you view the NASDAQ? The Nasdaq is clearly bearish in a key support zone for its future. It must not lose its current zone, and in the event of an upward rebound, it will form a bottom and signal a bullish (bullish) signal for the index in the coming weeks/months, causing all technology to rise sharply. --> How is Tesla doing? Tesla's outlook is better than the NASDAQ's, as it is entering a zone with intentions of breaking out higher! If Tesla surpasses 293, it will end the bearish phase it has been in since the beginning of the year and begin a bullish recovery phase. Therefore, if the NASDAQ bottoms out! When Tesla surpasses 293, we will go long without hesitation! -------------------------------------- Strategy to follow: ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions if the H4 candle closes above 293. POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 325 zone (+11%) --> Stop Loss at 242 (-17%). POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop position. --> Initial trailing stop loss at (-17%) (coinciding with the 242 level of position 1). --> We modify the trailing stop loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (293). ------------------------------------------- SETUP EXPLANATIONS *** How do I know which 2 long positions to open? Let's take an example: If we want to invest €2,000 in the stock, we divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening one position of €2,000, we'll open two positions of €1,000 each. *** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but it automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by a specified distance. This specified distance is the trailing Stop Loss. --> Example: If the trailing Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price drops by -1%, the position will be closed. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% during increases. Therefore, the risk decreases until the position enters a profit. This way, you can take advantage of very strong and stable price trends, maximizing profits.
A month back I wouldn't have believed this post though I did expect 10% correction and exited my major position at the top. I post this as pure academic purpose and my own record. I find volume profile the most important tool in technical analysis. Whatever I present here is an educated guess and not pure speculation. Before doing the profile I did a VP study on major stocks, since VP shows more clarity on the stocks Based on Volume profile the sellers will have little resistance breaking through thin ice zone. We could still be looking at 514 easily. Then it starts facing some resistance Market is still breaking through bubble territory. The reason I call bubble territory is because the volume became significantly lower after May 24. Most of the large investors and funds had bought their major holding by then. If fact based on news Warren Buffet and Michael Burry started selling USA market in August and kept selling till end of Dec. WB sold his entire holding of American express, one of his favourite company Berkshire was holding largest cash balance in is history by Dec. Smart guy. So I just followed him. Then I ask If these heavy weights are selling will they back after 10% correction? No way, they would wait for at least 20% or more markdown This give me confidence in my analysis and economic environment supports that too The market will quick fall through low volume region or imbalances. These act like magnets for the price and stop or pause for a breath at High volume nodes and even bounce back to take back some the low volume nodes. These can create a flag structure. This what happened when the market bounced back from 5500 to 5790 and reversed again. I correctly said in a previous post it was a bear flag When the market is euphoric and in FOMO stage it will leave lots of volume gaps which attracts the market back to those levels
Price clearly is going towards Sellside Liquidity. The standard deviation shows -2 to -2.5 is where price would reverse from and its also aligned with Sellside liquidity. Idea: Bearish.
Overbought oscillators, turning over bearish sentiment, could see a correction that drops to the upper 400s with a sentiment shift.
This 15-minute chart of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) from ICMarkets shows price consolidating within a well-defined range. The resistance zone around 3,084 is acting as a ceiling, while the support zone near 3,070 is providing a floor. The price is currently testing the upper boundary, with a possible rejection leading to a drop back towards the support zone. However, a breakout above resistance could trigger further bullish momentum. Traders should watch for confirmation signals before entering trades. Note: This is not a trading signal, just my personal analysis based on current market trends.