Possible Bitcoin Drop to $20,000: What’s Behind the Bearish Outlook? Bitcoin is facing increased selling pressure amid broader market uncertainty, raising the possibility of a drop to the critical $20,000 support level. Several factors are contributing to this bearish scenario, including tighter monetary policies, reduced investor confidence, and declining trading volumes. Technical indicators also show signs of weakness, with key support levels being tested and a lack of bullish momentum. If market sentiment continues to deteriorate, a correction toward $20,000 could become a reality. Traders and investors are closely watching for signs of stabilization or further downside movement.
A leading diagonal (cLD) has formed on the chart — potentially completing wave A or 1. We're now seeing the development of a corrective wave B/2. Key demand zone: 82,000 – 80,000 This area is supported by: • Fibonacci extensions • VWAP and balance zone • 4H BPR • Strong volume cluster (profile-based) This is a local setup, but if confirmed, it may kick off wave 3/C with a potential target at 90K+.
It appears that we will witness a price decline to the range specified in the image. It is expected that an upward movement will emerge from the identified zone, which will not result in a new peak. (This is because the previous upward movement did not create a new peak, and based on this analysis, the price decline will not create a new bottom. Consequently, a new peak cannot be anticipated.) In my opinion, the final upward movement, which will lead to a new price peak, will start around the price of 0.00003956. It is necessary to monitor price movements in this price range closely.
Gold has successfully broken above its resistance zone and the top of the ascending channel, indicating strong bullish momentum. Two support zones have been identified below the current price. A correction toward one of these levels is expected before the next bullish leg begins. After a pullback to one of these support areas, we expect gold to resume its uptrend and push toward higher levels and new highs. Among the two, the second support zone is considered a safer entry point for long positions, as it may offer stronger support and a better risk-reward setup.
We anticipate that after the formation of point 3, the chart will rise to the level indicated (?). We expect to enter a buy trade at the ND point. If you need further clarification or assistance with chart analysis, feel free to ask! VANTAGE:SP500 BLACKBULL:US30
On Wednesday, the USD/JPY exchange rate kept falling, trading around 141.950 with a drop of about 0.90%. Weakened by the US dollar's continuous decline, it hit a low of 141.645 and then recovered slightly. The yen's appreciation was due to the dollar's weakness, as new US tariff plans caused selling pressure on the dollar. Trump's call to investigate key mineral import tariffs added to investors' anxiety. The USD/JPY was consolidating around 143.20. A downward break might lead to 141.70, the third wave of decline, while an upward break could trigger a pullback to 145.00, supported by the MACD indicator. It formed a wider consolidation range between 142.46 and 144.07 with a triangular pattern. Breaking above might cause a rally to 145.00, also supported by the Stochastic Oscillator. The yen's rapid appreciation reflected the dollar's weakness and Japan's manufacturing optimism. However, trade policy uncertainty and technical patterns suggest the exchange rate will remain volatile, with key levels at 141.70 (downside) and 145.00 (upside). Investment itself doesn't carry risks; it's only when investment is out of control that risks arise. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.
Understanding Our Approach: High-Probability Reversals with Price & Time Analysis Hello Fellow Traders! We often get asked about the core principles behind our analysis here on TradingView. Today, we want to share a key part of our methodology: how we combine Price Analysis and Time Analysis to pinpoint potentially high-probability reversal signals in the market. Our goal isn't just about finding any setup, but finding setups where the odds seem stacked more favorably for a potential trend change. We do this by looking for confluence – where different factors align. 1. Price Analysis: Finding Where the Market Might Turn What it is: This is about identifying significant price levels on the chart. Think of these as important zones, not just single lines. How we use it: Support & Resistance: We look for historical areas where price has repeatedly bounced off (support) or struggled to break through (resistance). The stronger and more tested the level, the more significant it becomes. Price Action Clues: We watch how price behaves when it reaches these key levels. Are there strong rejection candles (like pin bars or engulfing patterns)? Is momentum slowing down? These clues tell us if buyers or sellers are stepping in or losing control. 2. Time Analysis: Finding When the Market Might Turn What it is: This adds the dimension of time to our price analysis. Markets often move in cycles or react around specific time points. How we use it: Timing Cycles: We look for potential cycles or rhythmic patterns in price swings. Sometimes, trends tend to exhaust themselves after a certain duration. Time Convergence: We pay close attention when price approaches a key Price Level (from step 1) around a potentially significant Time point (e.g., end of a known cycle, specific session timing, alignment with time-based indicators if used). The Synergy: Combining Price & Time for High-Probability Signals The real power in our approach comes when Price and Time align. Imagine price reaching a major historical resistance level (Price Analysis). Now, imagine this happens exactly when a known time cycle is expected to complete (Time Analysis). This convergence signals a potentially higher probability reversal point than if only one factor was present. It tells us that where the market is and when it got there are both significant. How You Can Apply This Concept: Identify Key Levels: Mark major support and resistance zones on your charts. Observe Time: Become aware of market timing – session opens/closes, news events, or potential cyclical patterns you observe. Look for Confluence: Wait for price to test a strong level around a potentially significant time point. Seek Confirmation: Always look for confirmation signals (like candlestick patterns or divergence) at these points of confluence before considering any action. Important Note: Trading involves significant risk. This methodology aims to identify higher probability setups, but no method guarantees success. Always use proper risk management and conduct your own analysis before making any trading decisions. This is shared for educational purposes. We hope this gives you a clearer insight into our analysis process! Follow us here on TradingView to see how we apply these concepts in our regular updates. Feel free to ask questions in the comments – we're all here to learn together. Want to Level Up? Join Shunya Trade’s Mentoring Program to master these strategies and sharpen your technical analysis skills. Trade safely! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Here few Historical chart study's https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NAS100/eXRzr2UB-NAS100-Tap-Reading-Trading-Math-Analysis/ https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/kZ7U8Dxy-AUDUSD/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PriceAnalysis, TimeAnalysis, PriceAction, TechnicalAnalysis, SupportResistance, CandlestickPatterns, ChartPatterns, MarketStructure, TimeCycles, MarketTiming, TradingSignals, ReversalTrading, TradingStrategy, MarketAnalysis, TradingView, Forex, Stocks, Crypto, Trading, Investing, DayTrading, SwingTrading, MarketCycles, FibonacciTime, Gann, TradingLevels, PricePatterns
Key Level Zone: 0.2720 - 0.2740 HMT v8 detected. The setup looks promising, supported by a previous upward/downward trend with increasing volume and momentum, presenting an excellent reward-to-risk opportunity. HMT (High Momentum Trending): HMT is based on trend, momentum, volume, and market structure across multiple timeframes. It highlights setups with strong potential for upward movement and higher rewards. Whenever I spot a signal for my own trading, I’ll share it. Please note that conducting a comprehensive analysis on a single timeframe chart can be quite challenging and sometimes confusing. I appreciate your understanding of the effort involved. Important Note : Role of Key Levels: - These zones are critical for analyzing price trends. If the key level zone holds, the price may continue trending in the expected direction. However, momentum may increase or decrease based on subsequent patterns. - Breakouts: If the key level zone breaks, it signals a stop-out. For reversal traders, this presents an opportunity to consider switching direction, as the price often retests these zones, which may act as strong support-turned-resistance (or vice versa). My Trading Rules Risk Management - Maximum risk per trade: 2.5%. - Leverage: 5x. Exit Strategy Profit-Taking: - Sell at least 70% on the 3rd wave up (LTF Wave 5). - Typically, sell 50% during a high-volume spike. - Adjust stop-loss to breakeven once the trade achieves a 1.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio. - If the market shows signs of losing momentum or divergence, ill will exit at breakeven. The market is highly dynamic and constantly changing. HMT signals and target profit (TP) levels are based on the current price and movement, but market conditions can shift instantly, so it is crucial to remain adaptable and follow the market's movement. If you find this signal/analysis meaningful, kindly like and share it. Thank you for your support~ Sharing this with love! HMT v2.0: - Major update to the Momentum indicator - Reduced false signals from inaccurate momentum detection - New screener with improved accuracy and fewer signals HMT v3.0: - Added liquidity factor to enhance trend continuation - Improved potential for momentum-based plays - Increased winning probability by reducing entries during peaks HMT v3.1: - Enhanced entry confirmation for improved reward-to-risk ratios HMT v4.0: - Incorporated buying and selling pressure in lower timeframes to enhance the probability of trending moves while optimizing entry timing and scaling HMT v4.1: - Enhanced take-profit (TP) target by incorporating market structure analysis HMT v5 : Date: 23/01/2025 - Refined wave analysis for trending conditions - Incorporated lower timeframe (LTF) momentum to strengthen trend reliability - Re-aligned and re-balanced entry conditions for improved accuracy HMT v6 : Date : 15/02/2025 - Integrated strong accumulation activity into in-depth wave analysis HMT v7 : Date : 20/03/2025 - Refined wave analysis along with accumulation and market sentiment HMT v8 : Date : 16/04/2025 - Fully restructured strategy logic
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Daily Analysis – Buying Opportunity Ahead ? **Date:** April 16, 2025 ? **Chart Timeframe:** 1D (Daily) ? **Pair:** BTC/USDT --- Chart Overview Bitcoin has been forming a **falling wedge pattern** on the daily timeframe, which is typically a bullish reversal setup. After an extended correction from the $110,000+ zone, BTC appears to be finding strong support around a major **buying area** near the **$72,000–$76,000** range. The chart shows confluence from multiple technical levels: - Rising trendline support from past higher lows. - Demand zone (highlighted in blue) aligned with historical support and accumulation zones. - Price action nearing the **bottom of the wedge**, indicating a potential breakout. --- Technical Analysis ? Pattern: Falling Wedge ? Support Zone (Buying Area):$72,000 – $76,000 ? Immediate Resistance: $88,000 – $90,000 ? Major Resistance Zone: $108,000 – $112,000 (Supply zone in red) ? Trendline Support: Long-term trendline intact Price Outlook & Prediction: Based on the current setup: 1. **Price is likely to revisit the lower wedge boundary or the buying area** before making a strong move. 2. If the price successfully retests and holds above the **$72K–$76K demand zone**, it could mark a **bullish reversal**. 3. A breakout from the wedge would confirm bullish strength, potentially pushing BTC towards the **$96,000–$100,000** area in the medium term. 4. Eventually, we could see a retest of the **$108,000–$112,000 resistance**, where strong selling pressure previously emerged. --- Trading Plan: ? Buy Entry (Swing Trade Idea): > Watch for bullish price action confirmation or a retest bounce from the $72K–$76K zone. ? **Target 1: $88,000 ? **Target 2: $96,000 ? **Target 3 (Long-term): $108,000+ ? Stop Loss: > A daily close below $70,000 (to invalidate the bullish structure) --- Conclusion: BTC is trading at a key technical juncture. With a well-respected trendline and a clear falling wedge structure, the upcoming days could present a high-probability buying opportunity for swing traders and investors. However, patience is key—wait for confirmation from the buying area or a clean breakout above the wedge. Stay alert, and always manage your risk! ?
Below is a focused prediction for the S&P 500’s direction in both the short term (next few days to 1–2 weeks) and long term (next 3–12 months) following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on April 16, 2025. The analysis is based on Powell’s remarks, market reactions, and economic context, avoiding speculative overreach and grounding predictions in available data. Short-Term Prediction (Next Few Days to 1–2 Weeks) Outlook: Downward Bias (60%–70% Probability of Decline) Prediction: The S&P 500 is likely to face further declines, potentially dropping toward 4,800–4,900 or Morgan Stanley’s projected 4,700 level (a 7%–8% decline from the April 8, 2025, close of 5,074.08, likely lower post-speech). A temporary bounce is possible but expected to be limited. Key Drivers: Hawkish Fed Stance: Powell’s cautious tone, emphasizing persistent inflation (PCE at 2.3% headline, 2.6% core) and no urgency for rate cuts (rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%), has dampened hopes for monetary easing. His view that Trump’s tariffs could drive sustained inflation increases the risk of prolonged high rates, pressuring equities. Tariff Uncertainty: Powell’s remarks on “larger-than-expected” tariffs, alongside U.S.-China trade tensions and the World Trade Organization’s slashed 2025 trade forecast, fuel fears of a trade war, higher costs, and slower growth. Weak Sentiment: Declining household (March 2025 confidence at its lowest since January 2021) and business sentiment, as noted by Powell, could curb spending and investment, weighing on stocks. Market Momentum: The S&P 500’s 9% drop in the week ending April 8 and its decline during Powell’s speech signal bearish momentum. Technical weakness, with many stocks below their 200-day moving averages, suggests vulnerability. Potential for a Bounce (30%–40% Probability): Oversold conditions could trigger a technical rally toward 5,200–5,300, especially if trade policy fears ease (e.g., signals of negotiation) or softer economic data renews rate-cut hopes. However, Powell’s inflation focus limits upside, making a sustained rally unlikely. Key Levels: Support: 5,000 (psychological), 4,800–4,900, or 4,700 (Morgan Stanley’s target). Resistance: 5,200–5,300 (recent pre-sell-off levels). Catalysts to Watch: Q1 2025 GDP (due in ~2 weeks): Weak growth could deepen fears, while strong data might reinforce inflation concerns. Trade policy: Escalation (e.g., new tariffs) could drive further declines; de-escalation could spark a bounce. Inflation data (CPI, PCE) and consumer sentiment reports. Short-Term Verdict: Expect downward pressure toward 4,800–4,700, with a possible short-lived bounce to 5,200–5,300 if positive catalysts emerge. Monitor GDP, trade developments, and Fed commentary. Long-Term Prediction (Next 3–12 Months) Outlook: Cautiously Optimistic with Volatility (55%–60% Probability of Modest Gains) Prediction: Over the next 3–12 months, the S&P 500 is likely to experience volatility but could see modest gains, potentially reaching 5,500–5,800 (8%–14% above April 8’s 5,074.08 close) by mid-2026, assuming no severe economic downturn or trade war escalation. However, significant risks could cap gains or lead to stagnation/declines. Key Drivers Supporting Gains: Economic Resilience: Powell noted the U.S. economy remains “in a solid position,” with a balanced labor market (4.1% unemployment, 150,000 jobs added monthly) and positive consumer spending. If growth stabilizes (e.g., Q1 2025 slowdown proves temporary), corporate earnings could support higher valuations. Historical Trends: The S&P 500 often performs well in the second half of election years under a first-term president, with gains potentially extending into the following year. Seasonal strength could bolster markets if trade and inflation fears subside. Potential Fed Pivot: If inflation moderates toward 2% (e.g., due to weaker demand or resolved supply chain issues), the Fed could signal rate cuts by mid-2025, boosting equities. Markets historically rally when monetary policy eases. Corporate Adaptability: Companies may adjust to tariffs by diversifying supply chains or passing costs to consumers, mitigating earnings damage over time. Key Risks Capping or Reversing Gains: Persistent Inflation: If tariffs drive sustained inflation (Powell’s concern), the Fed may maintain or raise rates, squeezing valuations. Core PCE above 2.6% or rising CPI could trigger tighter policy. Trade War Escalation: A full-blown U.S.-China trade war or broader global trade disruptions could slow growth, hurt earnings, and push the S&P 500 toward bear market territory (e.g., 4,500 or lower). Economic Slowdown: If Q1 2025’s slowdown (weak GDP, souring sentiment) persists, consumer spending and corporate investment could falter, risking a recession. Morgan Stanley’s bearish scenario (4,700) could extend if growth weakens further. Geopolitical and Policy Uncertainty: Trump’s trade policies, combined with global risks (e.g., China’s response to chip restrictions), could keep volatility high, deterring investment. Key Scenarios: Bull Case (20%–25% Probability): Inflation moderates, trade tensions ease, and the Fed cuts rates by Q3 2025. The S&P 500 could rally to 5,800–6,000, driven by strong earnings and renewed optimism. Base Case (55%–60% Probability): Volatility persists, but growth stabilizes, and tariffs are partially mitigated. The S&P 500 grinds higher to 5,500–5,800, with periods of pullbacks. Bear Case (20%–25% Probability): Inflation spikes, trade wars escalate, or growth slows sharply, prompting tighter Fed policy or recession fears. The S&P 500 could fall to 4,500–4,700 or lower. Key Levels: Upside Targets: 5,500 (near recent highs), 5,800 (moderate growth scenario). Downside Risks: 4,700 (Morgan Stanley’s target), 4,500 (bear market threshold). Catalysts to Watch: Fed policy: FOMC meetings (e.g., May 6–7, 2025) and Powell’s comments on inflation vs. growth. Economic data: GDP, inflation (PCE, CPI), unemployment, and consumer confidence over Q2–Q3 2025. Trade policy: Resolution or escalation of U.S.-China tariffs and global trade dynamics. Earnings: Q1–Q2 2025 corporate earnings for signs of tariff impact or resilience. Long-Term Verdict: The S&P 500 is likely to see modest gains to 5,500–5,800 by mid-2026, driven by economic resilience and potential Fed easing, but volatility will persist due to tariff and inflation risks. A bearish outcome (4,500–4,700) is possible if trade wars or inflation worsen. Stay vigilant on Fed signals, trade policy, and economic indicators.