Bitcoin ist heute nicht über der 50-Tage-EMA geblieben und hat darunter geschlossen – ein erstes Warnsignal aus technischer Sicht. Jetzt bleibt abzuwarten, ob der Kurs die Marke zeitnah zurückerobert oder ob sich der Abwärtstrend weiter ausweitet.
Albert Saniger, the founder and former CEO of Nate, an AI shopping app that promised a “universal” checkout experience, was charged with defrauding investors on Wednesday, according to a press release from the U.S. Department of Justice. Founded in 2018, Nate raised over $50 million from investors like Coatue and Forerunner Ventures, most recently raising […]
Several tech companies have scaled back public commitments to DEI amid a broader crackdown by the Trump administration.
In a recent appearance on Possible, a podcast co-hosted by LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis said Google plans to eventually combine its Gemini AI models with its Veo video-generating models to improve the former’s understanding of the physical world. “We’ve always built Gemini, our foundation model, to be multimodal from the […]
The studio behind No Mercy, a recently released 3D visual novel featuring non-consensual sex and incest, has announced that it plans to remove the game entirely from Steam after the game attracted controversy online. Valve pulled the game from the United Kingdom version of Steam after a government official slammed…Read more...
Weekly chart, The stock EGX:COMI has formed a symmetrical triangle chart pattern, and crossed the Resistance line R. One more week above R, to confirm, the target will be 104.3 - passing through several resistance levels as shown on the chart. A new entry (buy) can be made immediately before confirmation with higher risk, and consider a stop loss below 76.0 Technical indicators RSI and MACD are positive. NOTE: Keep a near Profit Protection/ Stop Loss level.
The Unthinkable Target: Is $1,000 ETH Really in Play? Suggesting Ethereum could fall back to $1,000 might seem hyperbolic to those who remember its peak near $5,000. However, the crypto market is notorious for its brutal volatility and deep drawdowns. Bitcoin itself has experienced multiple corrections exceeding 80% from its all-time highs throughout its history. While Ethereum has matured significantly, it's not immune to severe market downturns or shifts in narrative dominance. A $1,000 price target represents a roughly 65-70% decline from prices seen in early-to-mid 2024 (assuming a starting point around $3,000-$3,500) and an approximate 80% drop from its all-time high. While drastic, such a move could become plausible under a confluence of negative circumstances: 1. Severe Macroeconomic Downturn: A deep global recession, coupled with sustained high interest rates or a major credit event, could trigger a massive risk-off wave across all assets, hitting speculative investments like crypto particularly hard. 2. Regulatory Crackdown: Punitive regulations targeting DeFi, staking, or specific aspects of Ethereum's ecosystem could severely damage sentiment and utility. 3. Technological Stagnation or Failure: Major setbacks in Ethereum's scaling roadmap or the discovery of a critical vulnerability could erode confidence. 4. Sustained Loss of Narrative: If competing blockchains definitively capture the dominant narrative for innovation, speed, and cost-effectiveness, ETH could lose its premium valuation. 5. Technical Breakdown: A decisive break below key long-term support levels (like the previous cycle highs around $1,400 or psychological levels like $2,000) could trigger cascading liquidations and stop-loss orders, accelerating the decline towards lower supports, including the $1,000 vicinity which acted as significant resistance/support in previous cycles. While not a base-case prediction for many, the $1,000 target serves as a stark reminder of the potential downside if the current negative pressures persist and intensify, particularly within a broader bear market context. The factors currently driving ETH's weakness provide fuel for this bearish contemplation. Reason 1: The Underwhelming Arrival of Spot Ethereum ETFs Following the monumental success of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, which attracted tens of billions in net inflows within months of launch, expectations were sky-high for their Ethereum counterparts. The narrative was compelling: regulated, accessible vehicles would unlock a floodgate of institutional capital, mirroring Bitcoin's ETF-driven price surge. However, the reality has been starkly different and deeply disappointing for ETH bulls. Since their launch, Spot Ethereum ETFs have witnessed tepid demand, characterized by weak inflows and, at times, even net outflows. The initial excitement quickly fizzled out, failing to provide the anticipated buying pressure. Several factors contribute to this underwhelming debut: • Pre-Launch Regulatory Uncertainty: The SEC's approval process for ETH ETFs was far less certain and more contentious than for Bitcoin. This lingering ambiguity, particularly around Ethereum's classification (commodity vs. security) and the handling of staking, may have made some large institutions cautious. • Lack of Staking Yield: Unlike holding ETH directly or through certain other investment products, the approved US Spot ETH ETFs do not currently offer holders exposure to staking yields – a core component of Ethereum's tokenomics and a significant draw for long-term investors. This makes the ETF product inherently less attractive compared to direct ownership for yield-seeking capital. • Existing Exposure Channels: Institutional players interested in Ethereum already had established avenues for gaining exposure, including futures markets (CME ETH futures), Grayscale's Ethereum Trust (ETHE, although less efficient pre-conversion), and direct custody solutions. The incremental demand unlocked by the spot ETFs may have been smaller than anticipated. • Market Timing and Sentiment: The ETH ETFs launched into a more challenging macroeconomic environment and a period of cooling sentiment in the broader crypto market compared to the Bitcoin ETF launch window. The initial risk-on euphoria had faded, replaced by concerns about inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions. • "Sell the News" Event: As often happens in markets, the period leading up to the ETF approval saw significant price appreciation. The actual launch may have triggered profit-taking by traders who had bought in anticipation of the event. The impact of these weak ETF flows is significant. It signals a lack of immediate, large-scale institutional appetite for ETH through this specific channel, removing a key bullish catalyst that many had banked on. It also contributes to negative market sentiment, reinforcing the narrative that Ethereum is currently out of favor compared to Bitcoin or other trending assets. Without this expected wave of ETF-driven buying, the price is more susceptible to selling pressure from other sources. Reason 2: Derivatives Market Flashing Red - Low Interest, Negative Funding The derivatives market, particularly perpetual futures, provides crucial insights into trader sentiment and positioning. Two key metrics are currently painting a bearish picture for Ethereum: Open Interest (OI) and Funding Rates. • Low Open Interest (OI): Open Interest represents the total number of outstanding derivative contracts (longs and shorts) that have not been settled. While OI naturally fluctuates, consistently low OI relative to historical peaks or compared to Bitcoin's OI suggests a lack of strong conviction and reduced speculative interest in Ethereum. When traders are uncertain or bearish, they are less likely to open large, leveraged positions, leading to subdued OI. This indicates that fewer market participants are willing to bet aggressively on ETH's future price direction, especially on the long side. • Negative Funding Rates: Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between long and short position holders in perpetual futures contracts. They are designed to keep the futures price tethered to the underlying spot price. o Positive Funding: When the futures price trades at a premium to spot (contango) and bullish sentiment dominates, longs typically pay shorts. This incentivizes shorting and disincentivizes longing, helping to pull the prices back together. o Negative Funding: When the futures price trades at a discount to spot (backwardation) and bearish sentiment prevails, shorts pay longs. This indicates a higher demand for short positions (either speculative shorting or hedging long spot holdings). Consistently negative funding rates, as observed for ETH during periods of weakness, are a strong bearish signal. It means traders are actively paying a premium to maintain short exposure, reflecting widespread pessimism about the price outlook. • The combination of low Open Interest and negative Funding Rates creates a negative feedback loop. It shows reduced speculative appetite, a dominance of short positioning, and a lack of leveraged longs willing to drive the price higher. While extremely negative funding can sometimes precede a "short squeeze" (where rising prices force shorts to cover, accelerating the rally), the persistent nature of these conditions recently suggests underlying weakness rather than an imminent explosive reversal. This bearish derivatives landscape acts as a significant headwind, absorbing buying pressure and making sustained rallies difficult. Reason 3: The Relentless Rise of Competing Layer-1s Ethereum's primary value proposition has long been its status as the dominant, most secure, and most decentralized platform for smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps). However, its reign is facing its most significant challenge yet from a growing cohort of alternative Layer-1 (L1) blockchains, often dubbed "ETH Killers." While Ethereum still dominates in terms of Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi and overall network value, competing L1s like Solana, Avalanche, Cardano, and newer entrants are rapidly gaining ground in crucial areas of network activity: • Transaction Throughput and Fees: Many competitors offer significantly higher transaction speeds (transactions per second) and dramatically lower fees compared to Ethereum's mainnet. While Ethereum's Layer-2 scaling solutions aim to address this, the user experience on some alternative L1s can feel faster and cheaper for certain applications, attracting users and developers. • Active Users and Daily Transactions: Chains like Solana have, at times, surpassed Ethereum in metrics like daily active addresses and transaction counts, particularly fueled by specific niches like meme coins, high-frequency DeFi, or certain NFT projects. This indicates a migration of user activity seeking lower costs or specific functionalities. • Developer Activity and Ecosystem Growth: While Ethereum retains a vast developer community, alternative L1s are aggressively courting developers with grants, simpler tooling (in some cases), and the allure of building on the "next big thing." This leads to vibrant DApp ecosystems growing outside of Ethereum. • Technological Differentiation: Competitors often employ different consensus mechanisms (e.g., Proof-of-History, Avalanche Consensus) or architectural designs that offer trade-offs favoring speed or specific use cases over Ethereum's current approach (though Ethereum's roadmap aims to incorporate many advancements). The impact of this intensifying competition is multifaceted. It fragments liquidity and user attention across multiple platforms. It challenges the narrative of Ethereum's unassailable network effect. Crucially, it reduces the relative demand for ETH itself, which is needed for gas fees and staking on the Ethereum network. If users and developers increasingly opt for alternative platforms, the fundamental demand drivers for ETH weaken, putting downward pressure on its price relative to these competitors and the market overall. Ethereum is no longer the only viable option for building or using decentralized applications, and this increased competition is clearly impacting its market position and price performance. The Path to Reversal: What Needs to Change for Ethereum? Despite the current headwinds and the looming shadow of lower price targets, Ethereum is far from dead. It possesses a resilient community, the largest developer base, significant first-mover advantages, and a comprehensive roadmap for future upgrades. However, a sustainable trend reversal requires tangible progress and shifts across several fronts: 1. ETF Flows Must Materialize: The narrative needs to shift from disappointment to tangible success. This requires sustained, significant net inflows into the Spot ETH ETFs, potentially driven by broader institutional adoption, clearer regulatory frameworks globally, or perhaps future ETF iterations that incorporate staking yields (though regulatory hurdles for this are high). 2. Derivatives Sentiment Needs to Flip: Open Interest needs to build substantially, indicating renewed speculative conviction. More importantly, funding rates need to turn consistently positive, signaling a shift towards bullish positioning and leveraged longs re-entering the market. 3. Successful Execution of Ethereum's Roadmap: Continued progress and successful implementation of Ethereum's scaling solutions are paramount. Wider adoption and tangible impact from upgrades like Proto-Danksharding (EIP-4844) reducing Layer-2 fees, and clear progress towards future milestones like Verkle Trees and Statelessness, are needed to demonstrate Ethereum can overcome its scalability challenges and maintain its technological edge. 4. Reigniting Network Activity and Demand: Ethereum needs compelling new applications or upgrades to existing protocols that drive genuine user demand and increase the consumption of ETH for gas. This could come from innovations in DeFi, NFTs, GameFi, decentralized identity, or other unforeseen areas. The narrative needs to shift back towards Ethereum as the primary hub of valuable on-chain activity. 5. Favorable Macroeconomic Conditions: Like all risk assets, Ethereum would benefit significantly from a broader shift towards risk-on sentiment, potentially fueled by central bank easing (lower interest rates), controlled inflation, and stable global growth. 6. A Renewed, Compelling Narrative: Ethereum needs a clear and powerful story that resonates beyond its existing user base. Whether it's focusing on its superior security and decentralization, its role as the foundational "settlement layer" for the digital economy, or a new killer application, a refreshed narrative is needed to recapture investor imagination and justify a premium valuation. Conclusion: Ethereum at a Critical Juncture Ethereum's recent price struggles are not arbitrary; they are rooted in tangible factors: the lackluster performance of its spot ETFs, bearish signals from the derivatives market, and the undeniable pressure from faster, cheaper Layer-1 competitors. These elements combine to create an environment where contemplating a fall towards $1,000, while bearish, is a reflection of the significant challenges the network faces. However, Ethereum's history is one of resilience and adaptation. It has weathered bear markets, technical hurdles, and competitive threats before. The path back to sustained growth and potentially new all-time highs is challenging but not impossible. It hinges on reigniting institutional interest via ETFs, flipping derivatives sentiment, successfully executing its ambitious technological roadmap to counter competitors, and benefiting from a supportive macro environment. Until these positive catalysts materialize convincingly, Ethereum may continue to lag, and the possibility of further downside, even towards the $1,000 mark in a severe downturn, will remain a topic of discussion among market participants navigating the crypto giant's uncertain future.
AUDUSD Swing Long Setup – Technical + Macro Confluence ✅ Bias: Long AUD/SD Based on a multi-factor thesis: Macro: RBA steady; AUD LEI rising steadily (87 → 96), Endogenous improving USD Weakness: Fed dovish + GDP downgraded = downside pressure Seasonality: USD historically weak entire April
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Big bear trend line is holding up and market printed a lower high. I expect lower highs and higher lows for much more time. By now you should know that I don’t make up stuff about trading ranges and a triangle is a form of a trading range. You buy low, sell high and scalp. Mark the 30% of the upper and lower bound of the range, trend lines and trade if market turns. It’s not rocket science. It’s about you against you and not letting emotions mess up your trading success. current market cycle: bear trend valid until bear trend line broken but trading range a bit more likely right now. At least on lower time frames. key levels: 16000 - 20000 bull case: Bulls want to keep this higher low much higher than 17200 and are trying above the breakout price 18360. Tomorrow we will see if they can get a second leg up and retest 19000. I have no opinion on that and will wait what the market will give me. Shorting below 18800 is bad, no matter what. Is 18450 a good buy for the bulls? Far from it. Where would you put your stop? 17900? Risk of that getting hit is very high. Invalidation is below 16400. bear case: Bears did good at keeping this a lower high and casually selling down for 1469 points. In the grand scheme of things it’s around a 50% retracement of yesterday, so currently a “normal” move if you just look at this week. Markets are broken and someone bigger will fail soon. They always do. Swing shorts are ok at 18400 if you can add higher again. Risk of a retest 19000 is too big for a trade with a tight stop. If I had to guess, I think we will retest 17500 tomorrow and close somewhere around 18000. short term: Neutral around 17900-18700 and only interested in fading the extremes in given range. medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. W3 overshot it by 1000 points. Now my bearish bias is gone and I will wait how this unfolds. Big uncertainty for this year but I think this selling is overdone and big bois are buying with both hands below 17000. trade of the day: Shorting yesterday’s high was the obvious trade of the day since market only made lower highs since Globex open. Tough day in any case because the swings are so wild that the risk is gigantic on any given trade. Not the best environment for beginners or people with small accounts. Trade small and be humble.
As gold hit a high today I took a look at the chart. Incredible run going back many years. But what goes up must come down. Based on a Fib-extension we can see where price has hit resistance and turned it into support. It happened at 1, 1.272, 1.618, and briefly at 2.618. It has remarkably pushed through that. So in my studies of markets and fibonacci I've found that 4.236 often times bring about the top on a parabolic move. So by following that logic I would put the top, at least a local one, at $3,800. Roughly 25% from here. Anyways, that's my 2 cents on Gold. Happy trading.