Weekly & Monthly Closing above 9.3 is a Good Sign.
The S&P500 index (SPX) is attempting to recover from the April 07 2025 market low, following the 90-day Tariff pause. Last Thursday however it formed a Death Cross on the 1D time-frame, he first since May 11 2022, which was during the last Inflation Crisis correction. That was nothing like the current crash though as it was a technical 1-year Bear Cycle in contrast to today which is a flash crash inflicted by Trump's tariffs. What looks though most similar to today is the 2020 COVID crash. Equally fast and brutal, that sell-off also took place under an extreme pressure environment of uncertainty (economic lockdowns) which the world has never seen, similar to today's tariffs that admittedly have put (for the moment) an end to the U.S. - China trade. The COVID crash phase also formed a 1D Death Cross just 4 days after the March 23 2020 bottom. Last Thursday's 1D Death Cross came also just 3 days after the April 07 2025 Low. If this pattern of extreme market shock is a repetitive model under such fundamental events, then the stock market has bottomed. And if it follows the exact same recovery pattern as post-COVID, then it may reach the 1.1 Fibonacci extension at 6300 in a little over 5 months (162 days). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE ?, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE ? and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ?????? ? ? ? ? ? ?
Hi traders! Analyzing GBP/JPY on the 1H timeframe, price is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal with the formation of an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern: ? Entry: 189.25 ? Take Profit (TP): 190.85 ? Stop Loss (SL): 188.25 After a strong downtrend, price formed an inverse H&S pattern with the right shoulder completing near the ascending trendline support. A breakout above the neckline around the 189.20 level confirms bullish intent, with momentum supported by a close above both the neckline and the 200 EMA. RSI is also turning up, showing strengthening bullish momentum. The breakout candle is clean, with volume picking up slightly adding confidence to the setup. If the pattern plays out fully, the projected target aligns with the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 190.85, which also acts as a confluence zone from previous structure. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. Every trader is responsible for managing their own risk and strategy.
Soybeans (ZS/MZS) | Long Setup | Seasonal Edge + Profile Support | (April 2025) 1️⃣ Quick Insight: Currently watching Soybeans (ZS) and the micro contract MZS for a potential long setup. Price is approaching the value area low from the volume profile — a key support zone where buyers previously stepped in aggressively. This zone aligns with seasonal strength, making it a high-probability area to consider long positions. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters: Bias: Long Entry: Around value area low (Profile support) Confirmation: Buyer volume + hold above structure Stop Loss: Below recent swing low / invalidation of value zone TP1: Based on Fibonacci targets TP2: Depends on price reaction and volume continuation Seasonal Edge: Historically, Soybeans rally from mid-April through end of April — adding confidence to the long setup. 3️⃣ Why I’m Buying: Price reacting at value area low (volume profile) Buyer aggression seen on recent candles Seasonal tendency supports bullish direction during this time of year Fibonacci projections give upside targets in line with previous wave structure Bonus Insight – Gold: Simultaneously watching Gold (XAU/USD) for a potential short, depending on how it behaves at resistance. If we get rejection signals, I may hedge or even rotate capital from metals into agri (Soybeans) as part of a short-term rotation play. Please LIKE, FOLLOW, SHARE and COMMENT to support! Drop your chart ideas or setups below so we grow together. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do your own research and manage risk.
MY signaling a short position on ETH/USD at $1,630, with targets at $1,500 and $1,400. Here's a quick breakdown: Trade Setup: Entry: 1,630 (Sell) Target 1: 1,500 Target 2: 1,400 Stop-Loss: (You didn’t specify — want to include one?) Considerations: Is this a scalp, swing, or position trade? Are you basing this on technical analysis, market sentiment, or fundamentals? If you'd like, I can: Pull up recent ETH/USD chart trends Help you set a risk-reward ratio Provide TA like resistance/support or RSI/MACD insights Want a quick chart read or market sentiment check?
If, "A picture says a thousand words", "does a word sketches a thousand pictures"...and if it does, what do LVMH sketches?
Chart Overview: This analysis focuses on the US 100 (NAS100) index, sourced from CAPITAL.COM . The chart highlights critical price levels, Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) , and a Buy side liquidity (BSL) , offering actionable insights for traders. Key Observations: 1. Price Action & Structure: - The index has shown significant volatility, with a clear Break of Structure (BSL) indicating a potential shift in market sentiment. - The price is currently navigating between key support and resistance zones , marked by horizontal levels. 2. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs): - Two prominent FVGs are visible on the chart, representing areas where price may revisit to fill imbalances. These zones often act as magnet levels for price retracements. - Traders should monitor these FVGs for potential entry or exit opportunities , depending on price reaction. 3. Critical Price Levels: - Resistance Zones: - 20,250.0 : A major psychological barrier. - 19,750.0 - 20,000.0 : Intermediate resistance cluster. - Support Zones: - 17,000.0 - 17,250.0 : Strong historical support. - 16,000.0 : A pivotal level for long-term bias. Trading Strategy: - Bullish Scenario: A break above 20,250.0 could signal further upside, targeting 20,500.0 and beyond. - Bearish Scenario: A drop below 17,000.0 may confirm a deeper correction, with 16,250.0 - 16,000.0 as the next target. - FVGs as Confluences: Use the identified FVGs alongside volume and momentum indicators to refine entries. Timeframe & Validity: This analysis is based on the daily timeframe (Apr 19, 2025) and remains valid until key levels are breached or new structures form. Final Notes: Always pair this analysis with risk management (stop-loss, position sizing) and confirm with additional indicators (RSI, MACD, volume). The market may fill FVGs before continuing its trend. Like, follow, and comment if you found this useful! Happy trading!
The AUD/JPY pair is nearing a retest of the previous month's low, following a recent breakdown from a triangle consolidation pattern. This move also saw price fall beneath an ascending trendline, forming a decisive bearish impulse leg. Currently, the market is in a pullback phase, which may offer a potential shorting opportunity—particularly if a bearish signal emerges. On the daily timeframe, the broader trend remains bearish, adding weight to the likelihood of further downside. A false breakout above the previous week's high would add further confirmation to the bearish outlook. Should this setup unfold, a continuation lower is expected, with a probable break below the 90.000 support level. The next key support zone is identified around 88.510
EURUSD has been consolidating for several sessions now after making a strong impulsive move to the upside earlier this month. Since breaking above the 1.1150 level, momentum has started to slow down and price is beginning to range near the recent highs. That alone isn’t surprising strong impulsive moves are almost always followed by periods of consolidation or retracement as the market pauses, takes profits, and reevaluates. What catches my attention now is how weak the price action looks during this consolidation. The candles are getting smaller, wicks are getting longer, and there’s not much follow-through on the bullish side anymore. This kind of price behavior typically shows indecision or exhaustion buyers are no longer driving price with the same force and sellers are starting to creep back in. So instead of chasing this move higher, I’m positioning myself for a pullback into a key demand zone that I think will offer a much higher probability long setup. The Level I’m Watching – Golden Pocket with Imbalance Confluence The zone I’m targeting for a potential entry sits in the 1.1070 to 1.1170 area. This range covers the golden pocket retracement zone, between the 61.8% and 65% Fibonacci levels measured from the recent impulse low to high, and overlaps with multiple technical factors that make it extremely attractive. First off, this zone contains three separate unfilled imbalance areas (or fair value gaps), created by aggressive bullish candles on the way up. These are areas where price moved too quickly to fill all orders on both sides, which leaves inefficiencies in the market. The market tends to revisit these areas to rebalance before continuing in the prevailing direction. So from a pure price action perspective, the unfilled imbalances create a natural magnet for price to retrace into. Second, we’ve got historical resistance right in this same zone. If you look back a few sessions, price rejected this level multiple times before finally breaking through. Now that we’re above it, there’s a strong chance this area flips into support. This concept resistance turning into support is a classic and reliable price action behavior, especially when it lines up with other tools like fibs and imbalances. Trend Structure Still Intact What’s crucial to me here is that a pullback into this zone will not break the overall bullish market structure. We’re still printing higher highs and higher lows, and a retracement into the golden pocket would simply be another higher low within the current uptrend. There’s also a clean ascending trendline from early April that hasn’t been breached. If price respects that trendline again while dipping into this demand zone, that would add further confluence to the setup. It would mean the trendline, golden pocket, unfilled imbalances, and historical support are all lining up at the same point that’s a textbook area where I want to be a buyer. Entry Triggers and Execution Plan I’m not looking to blindly set a limit order in this zone. I want confirmation that buyers are stepping in and that we’re getting a shift in momentum. Ideally, I’ll drop to a lower timeframe like the 1H or even the 15M and wait for a clear change of character — something like: A break of a local lower high A bullish engulfing candle at the base A sweep of liquidity below recent lows followed by a strong push back above structure Once I see that kind of reaction, I’ll consider entering a long position. My stop will go just below the structure low or the lowest point of the zone, depending on the entry signal. I’ll give it enough room to avoid getting wicked out on a false break. As for targets the first obvious one is the current range high around 1.1350. If we get a strong reaction, I’ll trail part of the position and look for continuation into new highs. This pullback could set the stage for the next leg of the broader bullish trend, especially if DXY starts showing weakness again. Why I’m Not Shorting Here Even though price looks weak and a retracement seems likely, I’m not interested in shorting this setup. We’re still firmly in bullish structure and shorting into a healthy uptrend just doesn’t make sense to me unless I’m scalping. The risk to reward just isn’t favorable on the short side right now I’d rather wait for price to come to my zone and then look for confirmation to go with the trend. Final Thoughts EURUSD is consolidating after a strong move up and I’m expecting a pullback. The golden pocket zone, stacked with unfilled imbalances and previous resistance, looks like the ideal place for a bullish reaction. As long as we stay above that zone, structure stays bullish and I’ll be looking for long opportunities once price confirms the bounce. Patience is key here. I’m not rushing into anything, but if price gives me the reaction I’m looking for in that zone, I’ll be ready to execute. The setup aligns well with both technical structure and market behavior and I’ll continue to monitor price action closely over the next few sessions. __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like ? and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! ? Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! ?
?The current gold market maintains a strong trend, mainly driven by the following factors: ?Geopolitical risks: The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the second round of airstrikes by the US military against the Houthi armed forces in Yemen, and the continued escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, especially the Russian military's attack on the port of Odessa, have led to the reconstruction of the global food supply chain and pushed up the geopolitical risk premium of gold. ?Federal Reserve Policy: The market has different views on the extent of the Fed's future interest rate cuts, and the expectation of a downward trend in real interest rates provides core support for gold. ?Global central bank demand for gold: The increase in the net gold purchases of global central banks has increased the demand for gold allocation and further supported the high volatility of gold prices. These factors work together to keep the gold price strong and there has been no sharp correction. ?Technical analysis: ✅Daily chart: The gold daily line closed with a negative line, a small negative line formed after three consecutive days of rise, and the overall pattern is still bullish. However, if the gold price fails to break through the new high of 3245 on Tuesday or Wednesday this week, there may be adjustments. Especially after the daily line closed with a negative line, if the top pattern is confirmed, the market may face a sharp pullback in the future. Therefore, although the current gold price is in a bullish trend, we need to be alert to possible adjustments and pay close attention to the changes in the daily cycle. ✅4-H chart: Gold fell back above the middle track of the Bollinger Band yesterday, with a small retracement, and is still in a strong correction stage overall. In the short term, gold prices are expected to continue to rely on the middle track support and break through the resistance levels near 3238 and 3245. ✅The current decline has not broken the middle track support, indicating that it may continue to rise in the short term. If the low point of 3210 in the early trading today is not broken, the gold price may continue to rise. If the European session continues the upward momentum, the US session may usher in a second rise. ?Upper resistance level: 3245-3250 range. If it breaks through this range, you need to pay attention to market changes, especially the trend on Wednesday and Thursday. ?Lower support level: 3200-3210 range. If the support is effective, gold may continue to rise. 3210 is the key watershed today. Once it falls below this level, it may turn into a shock consolidation trend. ✅Intraday trading strategy ?Gold Sell: 3245-3248, Stop Loss: 5-8$ Target: 3230-3220, if it breaks, look to 3210 ?Gold Buy: 3213-3215, Stop Loss: 5-8$ Target: 3230-3240, if it breaks, look to 3250 ✅Trading strategies are time-sensitive. We will provide members with real-time and accurate trading strategies based on market changes. Short-term trading requires flexibility, timely adjustment of positions, strict risk control, and ensuring that you are not affected by large fluctuations. OANDA:XAUUSD