Take a look at the bigger picture of US100 from the monthly timeframe. We can understand the nature of price action that has occurred. We can see how price broke out of the rising channel leading to over 68% decline of the total gains made in the year 2024. This further awake traders mindset to whether there’s gonna be a further drop maybe upto a pullback support of 16426.4 or even below. From the technical standpoint, we may expect -5% more drop before we begin to see some form of recovery.
It seems we’ve finally touched what can be considered the bottom. One last leg down may still be on the table — if some players decide to fully exit before positioning themselves for what comes next. Let me briefly introduce myself. I’m Alex. I build crypto projects from the ground up — from token design to long-term fundamental development. That’s my core expertise. But today, I'm here for a different reason. A close colleague of mine believes that trading success comes from mastering indicators. I believe otherwise. In my view, indicators are just tools — and knowing how to use them is more than enough. What truly drives performance over time is mindset: psychology, philosophy, and emotional clarity. Without those, no indicator will save you. To prove this point, we’ve decided to make it real. We’re backing this disagreement with a 1,000,000 USDT trading challenge. Real capital. Real trades. Real psychology at play. This TradingView account will serve as a public log — a transparent, immutable space to document every step of the process. No edits. No deletes. Just pure execution, reflection, and results. If you're interested in the psychological dimension of trading — beyond the noise, beyond the charts — you're welcome to follow along. This isn’t about hype. It’s about proof. Stay sharp, Alex
MARKETSCOM:OIL Hello Looks like this patterns might decide Inflation or deflation. I would guess deflation based on tariffs, due to the below reasons: 1. People have low purchasing power 2. Job losses 3. High prices due to tariffs. 4. Higher interest rates, so tough market conditions. Fed should step in very soon to ease the market with interest rate reduction and then start stimulating the economy. If Fed hands are tied for next few months and tariffs continue, it will be a biggest self inflicted economic tragedy in US and can be seen bad economic state out side of US. Easy guess: 1. Tariffs are reduced and eventually removed on negotiations. 2. Fed will lower interest rates due to fear of deflationary recession, China is a biggest example. 3. Markets rally till end of the year. 4. Bull cycle comes to an end, starts the bear market in 2026 and 2027. Hard guess: 1. Tariffs will move manufacturing companies away from US and adjust to the rest of the world. 2. US suffers lack of partners, hard to gain back trust. 3. Dollar will slowly move down. Recessions and market crashes make millionaires, be always to grab an opportunity. Happy investing
If you think the market can't go any lower, you're mistaken. It's been a while since it's happened (housing bubble crash), but monthly indicators can go oversold. We're not there yet. If congress doesn't step in and rescind the tariffs, the stock market will get cut in half like it did back then. It's gonna be nearly impossible for corporations to match even preCOVID level profits with such huge tariffs. I do not recommend going long on anything until congress steps in. That may happen as early as this weekend, or they can wait until the market tanks 50%, lol..... who knows.
For years, the narrative surrounding Bitcoin’s price action has been inextricably linked to the performance of traditional financial markets, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite. Often moving in lockstep, Bitcoin was viewed by many as a high-beta asset, amplifying the gains during bullish periods and suffering even steeper losses when risk sentiment soured in equities. However, recent market movements have sparked a crucial question among investors and analysts alike: is Bitcoin finally beginning to forge its own path, decoupling from the gravitational pull of U.S. stocks as they face mounting headwinds? The past few weeks have witnessed a notable divergence. While U.S. stock markets, reeling from a confluence of factors including escalating geopolitical tensions stemming from a potential “Trump tariff war,” persistent inflation concerns highlighted by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish warnings of “higher inflation and slower growth,” and broader macroeconomic anxieties, have experienced a significant downturn – shedding a staggering $3.5 trillion in value – Bitcoin has demonstrated a surprising degree of resilience, even posting gains in some instances. This nascent divergence has ignited a wave of optimism among Bitcoin proponents who have long yearned for the digital asset to be recognized and traded based on its own fundamental merits, rather than as a mere proxy for risk-on sentiment in the equity markets. The concept of Bitcoin decoupling from traditional assets has been a recurring theme in the cryptocurrency space. The original thesis for Bitcoin, after all, positioned it as a decentralized, censorship-resistant store of value and a hedge against traditional financial system vulnerabilities. Its finite supply, its independence from central banks and government policies, and its inherent scarcity were touted as key differentiators that would eventually lead it to trade independently. However, the reality of the past few years has often painted a different picture, with institutional adoption bringing increased correlation with established asset classes. The current shift, however tentative, offers a glimmer of hope for those who believe in Bitcoin’s unique value proposition. The factors contributing to the stock market slump – trade war anxieties, inflation fears, and the prospect of tighter monetary policy – arguably strengthen the case for Bitcoin as an alternative asset. In times of economic uncertainty and currency debasement concerns, the fixed supply and decentralized nature of Bitcoin could become increasingly attractive to investors seeking a safe haven outside the traditional financial system. Furthermore, the increasing maturity of the Bitcoin market, with the development of more sophisticated trading instruments, greater institutional participation, and a deeper understanding of its underlying technology, may be contributing to its growing independence. As Bitcoin gains broader acceptance as a legitimate asset class, its price discovery mechanisms may become less reliant on the sentiment driving traditional equity markets. However, it is crucial to approach this apparent decoupling with a degree of caution. While the recent divergence is encouraging for Bitcoin bulls, it is too early to definitively declare the long-awaited break has finally arrived. Market correlations can be fluid and influenced by a multitude of factors. A sudden shift in global risk sentiment or a significant negative event specific to the cryptocurrency space could easily re-establish the link between Bitcoin and traditional assets. Adding a layer of complexity to the current narrative is the warning from some analysts regarding a potential Bitcoin price correction. Despite the recent resilience, multiple BTC price forecasting models have pointed towards a scenario where Bitcoin could fall back to its 2021 all-time high of around $70,000 in a relatively short timeframe – some even suggesting this could occur within the next ten days. This potential “crash risk,” as one analyst termed it, is attributed to various technical and market cycle indicators. The notion that $70,000 could represent Bitcoin’s “practical bottom,” as suggested by some, highlights the inherent volatility and speculative nature of the cryptocurrency market. Even if Bitcoin is beginning to decouple from traditional equities, it remains susceptible to its own unique set of risks and price swings. Factors such as regulatory developments, network security concerns, and shifts in investor sentiment within the crypto space can still exert significant influence on its price. Therefore, while the current divergence between Bitcoin and the struggling U.S. stock market offers a compelling narrative and fuels the hopes of long-term Bitcoin holders, it is essential to maintain a balanced perspective. The confluence of factors driving the stock market decline could indeed be creating an environment where Bitcoin’s unique characteristics become more appealing, leading to a sustained period of independent price action. However, the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market and the potential for a significant correction remind investors that the journey towards true decoupling is likely to be a complex and potentially bumpy one. In conclusion, the recent market dynamics present a fascinating juncture for Bitcoin. The initial signs of decoupling from the crumbling U.S. stock market, driven by a confluence of macroeconomic anxieties and the potential for Bitcoin to act as an alternative store of value, are undeniably encouraging for those who believe in its long-term potential. However, the warnings of a potential price correction underscore the inherent risks within the cryptocurrency space. Whether this nascent decoupling marks a definitive shift in Bitcoin's market behavior or proves to be a temporary divergence remains to be seen. Investors would be wise to monitor these trends closely, remaining cognizant of both the potential for independent growth and the ever-present risks associated with this dynamic and evolving asset class. The coming weeks and months will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can truly forge its own path in the face of traditional market turmoil.
? EUR/USD Trade Setup – Range Trading at Its Finest EUR/USD is printing a textbook range setup — unconfirmed for now, but packed with potential. ? We've got 3 clear lows, with L3 within the deviation low ? There's visible demand sitting right under L3 ? Stop-loss goes just below that demand zone ? Entry comes after break of structure on the 15m ? First target: liquidity sweep just below the range high ? Bonus: consider extending your TP — EUR is showing strong trend strength vs USD ⚠️ Never FOMO —> wait for confirmation. ? Follow for more clean, structured setups without noise or hype.
The target is close to the 0.618 fibanocci It sucks that there isn't candles, formations or order blocks to rely on. So we use the Fibonacci to predict. I have indicators which will tell me exactly where the bottom is and when the bull run resumes just DM me if you have questions about said indicators.
DXY has been moving in a local channel indicating a short term bearish trend. What next do we expect especially as we saw a BETTER THAN EXPECTED NFP OUTCOME From the technical standpoint, I anticipate a bullish sentiment to continue to grow till 106.591. If we’d get a break above the upper resistance of the descending channel, a buy opportunity is envisaged.
Volatility Trades Do you trade symbols such as SVIX, VXX, UVXY or even UVIX? These are all volatility trades either long or short. I have come up with an indicator that I use to keep myself on the right side of volatility. It is also a good measure of RISK-ON/RISK-OFF. Where am I in the Volatility Trade? Full disclosure I am long volatility. It has not been an easy ride. I was long VXX call options on 3/26. On Liberation day, (4/2), got a sell signal, so I sold. Markets freaked out around 4:10pm so I bought UVXY after hours on my buy signal. I am still holding and moving my stop up. The Indicator I developed an oscillator indicator that charts the EMA of the VX futures roll yield along with the roll yield itself. It also has a quick-view table of the VIX, VX1, VX2 futures, the current roll yield and Contango/Backwardation status. It is free, search on "UM VIX status table and Roll Yield with EMA" This chart shows the VX1 futures with the roll yield indicator. https://www.tradingview.com/x/pKIm5i2N/ I use several other indicators for trades on this hourly chart but the heart of the volatility trade strategy is this: Strategy: When: The VX futures roll yield turns down or red, begin looking for long volatility trades. This can take on a variety of formats including long VX futures, VXX, UVXY, UVIX or call options on any of the listed. Exit the long volatility, when the VIX futures roll yield turns green. You can proactively close any long position using your own indicators or judgement, but when the roll yield turns red to green, this is hard "out" or exit. The VX futures roll yield turns up or green, begin looking for short volatility trades. This too can take on any number of formats including short the VX futures, long SVXY, long SVIX or call options on any of these. Here is some real world trading of UVXY with this indicator: https://www.tradingview.com/x/4UDxqoXZ/ Here are a couple real world SVIX trades. (Note I had to roll back to November 2024 for the examples) https://www.tradingview.com/x/15bAKZR1/ Here is a chart of the S&P500 Futures with the same indicators: https://www.tradingview.com/x/XcUZpKQ4/ Notice when the volatility subsides/roll yield EMA turns down/red, stocks tend to rise. So when is a crash over?? When the VX futures come out of Backwardation and go into Contango with a positive roll yield, this "usually" leads to a risk-on environment. (This is the green fill above zero on the oscillator). I set an alert on the roll yield EMA and any cross of the roll yield zero line. No indicator is full-proof. Do your own homework and use good money management. But if you trade any of the volatility ETFs/ETNs, check out this indicator. Keep in mind, these instruments different animals from stocks and other ETFs. These are based on a combination of the front two month VIX futures contracts, so the ETFs/ETNs do not trade like stocks. My Chart Setup and Indicators: Security - VX1. (VIX front month futures contract). ( you can use the VIX, but VX1 seems smoother with more data points given a 23 hour trading day) Time Frame - 1 hour RSI. - UM-Relative Strength index with Trending EMA, RSI 65, EMA 220, OHLC4 WMA - 65 period UM VIX Status table with Roll Yield - 89 period EMA, table location lower right. Additional thoughts: I left much of this strategy open-ended. I am not going to tell you how to trade volatility because, well its volatile! Adopt this indicator to your style of trading and timeframe. Experiment with the settings and backtest it. Dates I suggest you review: 12/24, 7/24, 1/22, 3/22. If you can get the data, look at 2/20. Let me know if it helps you out. Use shorter time frames for long volatility - 1 hour is my goto. But always look at the daily for larger context. Happy Trading.
? Golden Cross & Harami Candle Strategy - Trade Setup ? In this setup, we're working with a Golden Cross strategy where the 50 SMA crosses above the 200 SMA, signaling bullish momentum. Right now, price action is in the middle of a Harami candle, indicating potential consolidation before the next move. ? Plan: Waiting for a pullback into the first demand zone, aligning with the 200 SMA. Looking for a bounce from this level to confirm support. Targeting a move back to the previous high for potential profit-taking. ⚠️ Key Levels: Support: Demand zones near the 200 SMA. Resistance: Previous highs marked on the chart. Patience is key! Let’s see if the market respects this setup. ??