Last week, I warned in this post that if sentiment worsened, the S&P 500 could head toward 4,790 as a worst-case scenario. Fast forward to today, and the index has officially lost the 5,149 support level, opening the door for further downside. What Just Happened? ? Key Support Broken: The market just lost 5,149 (1.0 Fib retracement), which was a major line in the sand. ? Momentum Still Bearish: With no strong bounce, sellers remain in control, making 4,790 - 4,800 the next major target. ? Next Supports: 4,800 zone: A critical psychological level and my worst-case scenario target. 4,761 (1.618 Fib): A key confluence area for a potential bounce. If the S&P 500 fails to reclaim 5,149 quickly, then the next downside targets are: 4,800 – A major area I highlighted last week. 4,761 – Aligns with the 1.618 Fib extension, adding confluence. What Needs to Happen for a Rebound? For bulls to take back control, the index must reclaim at least 5,149, or risk continued selling. A failed bounce could accelerate the move lower. ? I called 4,790 as a worst-case target last week.
DBA agricultural commodities ETF and the sentiment cycle. Potentially at the aversion stage.
Neckline support. Give it sometime... it will go to $53 eventually. Past $53, it will resume up to $70
The TVC:VIX has only hit above 45 on 5 occasions in the history of CRYPTOCAP:BTC Each time it did, BTC pumped at least 20%
1) I told everyone not to go long until congress decides to rescind all of the tariffs 2) I said the futures gap might not fill for an extended period of time, but all gaps will fill. This one will not happen until the tariffs are rescinded by congress or the next president, lol. 3) I said like COVID, this drop will probably break a lot of rules. So far it's broken the gap rule, 3hr indicator, double index gap (SPX daily index doesn't usually throw gaps 2 days in a row, and if it does it fills them them within days). 4) I assume it will break daily and weekly indicators as well, so I'm not even gonna post plots. 5) The algos are on, but broken. You can see that the market zig zagged multiple times today as the algos tried to pump the market, but there were way too many retail investors that sold. EOD (end of day) selling indicates people going cash in their 401k. Extremely rare for the market to drop EOD on Fridays like that. Usually there's at least some bounce. Anyways, you can see 3hr indicators flatlined at the bottom, the same can happen with daily and weekly indicators. We were close to circuit breaker level today. We may hit it next week if congress doesn't do something. That's the unknown factor that kept me from shorting the market over the weekend. If not, we may see yet another futures gap Sunday night and the circuit breaker. Remember we hit it multiple times during COVID bottom.
This chart highlights the strong correlation between Bitcoin’s price (RHS, blue) and Global M2 Money Supply (10-week lead, orange), suggesting that Bitcoin’s price action lags behind global liquidity trends by approximately 10 weeks. Historically, increases in M2 have led to bullish Bitcoin movements, making M2 a leading indicator for BTC’s price action. Bitcoin has closely followed M2’s trajectory, and the chart marks April 9 as a key turning point, with a critical support level around $79,470. Given M2’s prior surge, Bitcoin is expected to initiate a strong upward move post-April 9, potentially pushing toward six figures ($100K+) in Q2 2024 if the correlation holds. While short-term consolidation or a retest of $79,470 remains possible, the medium-term outlook remains bullish. If M2 continues to rise, Bitcoin is likely to follow, with projected targets in the $95K - $110K+ range. However, macroeconomic risks, such as a slowdown in M2 growth or liquidity tightening, could delay the expected breakout. Key Takeaways: April 9 marks a potential breakout point for Bitcoin, following M2’s lead. Key support: $79,470 (a potential bounce zone before the rally). Medium-term targets: $95K - $110K+ by mid-2024. Watch Global M2 trends—continued liquidity growth supports a Bitcoin bull run. If Bitcoin maintains its correlation with M2, this liquidity-driven cycle could propel BTC to new all-time highs in the coming months. ?
My overall thesis is we are in the very early stages of a multi-year decline ultimately with the S&P 500 below 3500. I am estimating this symbol to be in wave position SuperCycle 2, Cycle A, Primary 1, Intermediate 3 (pink), Minor 3 (yellow), Minute 5(green). I originally had this symbol nearly complete with Primary wave 1, but the continued declines received significant wave 3 of 3 of 3 signals (pink lines in bottom chart band). It is still unclear if we are in my theoretical larger decline or if we are in a simple corrective wave. It will take at least another two months to likely achieve the answer. Theory 1 is my hypothesis where we are about to finish Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 3 in Primary wave 1 in a multi-year market correction. This would see AMZN bottom around 148-156 within two weeks and briefly head up toward 180 before continuing significant downward movement. Currently Intermediate wave 1 lasted 201 trading hours. Based on the breakneck pace of Intermediate wave 3, it may finish well before the 201st hour on 5 May. Extensions based on Minor wave 1's movement could put Minor wave 3's bottom around 162.59. Theory 2 is that Intermediate waves 1, 2 and 3 (pink) are actually waves A, B, and C (white) in a short-term corrective wave. This would mean this symbol returns to all-time highs around the fall of 2025. Theory 3 places the stock in the third wave about to finish a wave A down. Wave B up would last a few months before wave C takes the market to a bottom sometime around the end of 2025. All three theories will observe the same movement over the next few weeks with a low soon and then a bounce up. Theory 2 becomes the likely winner if AMZN breaks above 206.21 within the next 2 months. Theories 1 and 3 will trade the same for quite some time. I will reevaluate this stock once Minor wave 3 finishes. It should aid in providing a better bottom for Intermediate wave 3 in the next week or two.
The challenge in the current S&P 500 futures market is how do you plan in this current post global tariff environment? It is this uncertainty that continues to destabilize the stock market. The smoke is in the air and until this clears sellers are in control.
Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (AAVEUSDT 1M chart) https://www.tradingview.com/x/IciZe55O/ The important support and resistance section is 155.69. If it falls without support at 155.69, it is likely to fall to around 81.44. If it rises with support at 155.69, it is expected to rise to around 332.71. The 155.69 point is the HA-High indicator point on the 1M chart. - (1W chart) https://www.tradingview.com/x/qq8pKGuc/ If it falls from 155.69, 1st: 115.70 2nd: 64.26-81.44 We need to check for support near the 1st and 2nd above. If it rises from 155.69, 1st: Fibonacci ratio 0.236 (202.92) 2nd: 302.67 We need to check for support near the 1st and 2nd above. This shows that the area around 155.69 is an important support and resistance area. - (1D chart) https://www.tradingview.com/x/gx9Zpk1q/ Therefore, the area we should be interested in is checking for support near 155.69-180.14. Since the OBV indicator is renewing the low line, the key is whether it can rise above 155.69 this time. Therefore, if possible, when it is confirmed to be supported near 180.14, it is the time to buy. An aggressive buy is when it rises above 155.69 and receives support. If it fails to rise above 155.69, if possible, it is recommended to not buy and watch the situation. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful transaction. -------------------------------------------------- - This is an explanation of the big picture. I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC. I rewrote it to update the previous chart while touching the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10). (Previous BTCUSD 12M chart) https://www.tradingview.com/x/WBuhqVrT/ Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market. Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025. - (Current BTCUSD 12M chart) https://www.tradingview.com/x/z7KccUWy/ Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15). It is expected that it will not fall again below the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 (44234.54). (BTCUSDT 12M chart) https://www.tradingview.com/x/qnPyNIaV/ I think it is around 42283.58 when looking at the BTCUSDT chart. - I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart. The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the light green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges. In other words, it seems likely to act as a volume profile range. Therefore, in order to break through this section upward, I think the point to watch is whether it can rise with support near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28). Therefore, the maximum rising section in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) section. To do that, we need to look at whether it can rise with support near 2.618 (134018.28). https://www.tradingview.com/x/QXrexgiP/ If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but considering the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%. So, if the decline starts near the Fibonacci ratio 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54). I will explain more details when the downtrend starts. ------------------------------------------------------
Buckle up! LINK has been riding a relentless bearish trend for 113 days, ever since it kissed its peak of $30.94 back in December 2024. With economic uncertainty casting a shadow over the markets and fear gripping investors, the big questions loom: Is this the dip to buy while others panic-sell? Or is it wiser to sit on the sidelines? Let’s slice through the noise, dissect LINK’s chart like a seasoned pro, and uncover the setups that could turn this chaos into opportunity. Let’s dive in! The Big Picture: LINK’s Bearish Blueprint LINK is currently trading at $13, a far cry from its yearly open of $20. April has kicked off, and LINK has already surrendered the monthly open at $13.5, a critical level now acting as a brick wall overhead. Zooming out, the trend is unmistakably bearish: lower highs and lower lows dominate the chart. Adding fuel to the fire, LINK is languishing below the Point of Control (POC) at $14.32, derived from a 1.5-year trading range. This is a market screaming caution for bulls and whispering opportunity for bears, at least for now. But charts don’t lie, and they’re packed with clues. Let’s map out the key levels, pinpoint trade setups, and arm ourselves with a plan that’d make even the most seasoned traders nod in approval. Resistance Zones: Where Bears Sharpen Their Claws 1.) Resistance - The Golden Pocket ($13.6 - $13.7) Using the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest downward wave, the golden pocket (0.618 - 0.65 Fib) aligns beautifully with the monthly open at $13.5. Oh wait there’s more, this zone overlaps with a Fair Value Gap (FVG), making it a magnet for price action. Trade Setup (Short): Entry: ~$13.5 (if price tests and rejects this zone). Stop Loss (SL): Above the recent swing high at $14.4. Take Profit (TP): First target at $11.85 (swing low), with a stretch goal at $11. Risk-to-Reward (R:R): A solid 2:1. The Play: If LINK crawls up to this resistance and gets smacked down, bears can pounce. Watch for rejection candles (e.g., shooting star, bearish engulfing) to confirm the move. 2. Key Resistance - Cloud Edge & VWAP ($15.74 - $16.5) The Cloud edge of my indicator sits at $15.74, while the anchored VWAP (from the $26.4 high) hovers at $16.5. A break above $16.5 would flip the script, snapping the bearish structure and signaling a potential trend reversal. Bullish Scenario: If bulls reclaim $16.5 as support, it’s a green light for a long trade. Until then, this is a fortress for bears to defend. The Play: No bullish setups here yet. Support Zones: Where Bulls Build Their Base 1.) Support - Swing Low ($11.85) This is the first line in the sand for bulls. A potential Swing Failure Pattern (SFP), where price dips below $11.85, sweeps liquidity, and reverses—could spark a long trade. The Play: Watch for a bullish reversal candle or volume spike here. 2.) Major Support Cluster - The Golden Zone ($10 - $11.85) This is where the chart sings a symphony of confluence: Swing Low: $11.85. POC: $11.33 (1.5-year trading range). Monthly Level: $11.02. Fib Retracement: 0.886 at $10.69 and 0.786 (log scale) at $10.77. Psychological Level: $10. Trade Setup (Long): Entry: Dollar-Cost Average (DCA) between $11.85 and $10. Stop Loss (SL): Below $10 Take Profit (TP): First target: $13.5 (monthly open), stretch goal: $20 (yearly open). Risk-to-Reward (R:R): A monstrous 6:1 or better, depending on your average entry. This is the kind of trade we are looking for! The Play: Patience is key. Wait for confirmation—think bullish engulfing candles, a surge in volume, or positive order-flow momentum. This isn’t a “hope and pray” trade; it’s a calculated ambush on the bears. Market Structure: Bears Rule, But Bulls Lurk Right now, LINK’s chart is a bear’s playground—lower highs, lower lows, and no bullish momentum to speak of. The $16.5 VWAP is the line in the sand for a trend shift, but until then, short trades take priority. That said, the $10 - $11.85 support zone is a coiled spring for bulls. If fear drives LINK into this range, it’s time to load the boat with longs—provided confirmation aligns. Your Trading Edge LINK’s 113-day bearish descent is a wild ride, but it’s not random chaos—it’s a roadmap. Bears can feast on rejections at $13.5 - $13.7 with a tidy 2:1 R:R short. Bulls, meanwhile, should stalk the $10 - $11.85 zone for a high-probability long with a 6:1+ R:R payoff. Whether you’re scalping the dips or swinging for the fences, these levels give you the edge to trade with confidence. So, what’s it gonna be? Short the resistance and ride the wave down? Or stack bids at support and catch the reversal of a lifetime? The chart’s laid bare—now it’s your move. Drop your thoughts below, and let’s conquer this market together! If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know, I’m here to break down the charts you want to see. Happy trading =)