It’s more of a sixth sense (like when you just know your girlfriend's about to cancel plans). AUDCAD’s giving off that "Next stop? Rock bottom" kind of energy. I see it dropping hard, like it missed the elevator and took the shaft instead. If I’m right, I’ll be looking at some solid trades to take. If I’m wrong, well, I’ll just grab a coffee and wait for the next pair to make its move. Just my opinion, not financial advice.
EUR/USD DTF Fundamental and Technical Analysis Fundamental Outlook: EUR/USD has experienced an upward move due to short-term positive sentiment. Optimism surrounding the European Union's fiscal policies and the European Central Bank's more dovish stance on interest rates have provided some support to the euro. Additionally, a recent weakness in the U.S. dollar, driven by concerns over the U.S. economic slowdown and disappointing job data, has contributed to the euro's recent strength. However, the ongoing risk from new U.S. tariffs on European imports, escalating trade tensions, and concerns over global economic instability could weigh on the euro. The U.S. dollar remains a safe-haven asset, limiting further downside for EUR/USD in the long term. Technical Outlook: On the daily timeframe, EUR/USD is approaching a major key resistance level at 1.12500, where a double top has previously formed. This technical pattern strengthens our bearish bias for the pair. However, if price breaks above this key resistance at 1.12500, we would expect a continuation of the uptrend, suggesting that the euro remains in dominance. A breakout above this level would indicate further bullish momentum for EUR/USD. In conclusion, the resistance at 1.12500 is crucial. If it holds, we could see a reversal; if broken, the euro could continue to dominate, pushing EUR/USD higher. ? Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
On the Technical Analysis stand-point, FX:AUDUSD has been Consolidating in an Ascending Channel since the beginning of this year after having a sharp decline which started in October last year. Now the past 6 Months, Price Action seems to be forming a strong Continuation Pattern, the Bear Flag! Based on the Retracement from the Swing High @ .6942 to the Swing Low @ .60872, Price has made a 38.2% Retracement to .64081, resulting in a False Break, pushing Price back into Pattern! Price has been trading Under the 200 EMA since the start of the "Flagpole" and with the separation between it and the 34 EMA Band, feeds the Bearish Bias after we see Price heavily rejected after touching the 34 EMA Band! *Once Price makes a Breakout of the Rising Support of the Channel -> Bear Flag Confirmed *Increase in Volume after Break -> Breakout Validated If we get a True Breakout that is Validated by the checklist of factors, we could be looking at great opportunities to take FX:AUDUSD down to the current 5 Year Low of .55063 set back in March 16th 2020 (Initial Outbreak of Covid) based on the Flagpole and Potential Extension of a Valid Break and Retest of the Bear Flag! Now, Fundamentally what is driving the Weaker Aussie Dollar is the fear of the impact of what the US Tariffs will do to Australia's "Key Trading Partners" being China, Japan and South Korea all being high on the Reciprocal Tariff List. Because of this, the RBA has now priced in 100 Basis Points worth of Rate Cuts to come with the expectations of a "dampened broader outlook for global trade and economic growth." https://www.tradingview.com/news/te_news:453847:0-australian-dollar-falls-amid-global-recession-fears/ Stay Tuned!
I'm not gonna go terribly in-depth into this. These are the tickers I am personally using to hedge my risk against the complete and total incompetency of this regime. They are not without risk, in fact, not only are they inverse but the high dividend makes them among the riskiest assets to hold over any significant duration. Please honestly read the prospectus on these before considering any of them and talk to an advisor. That's genuinely not ass covering, but out of genuine concern. The biggest risk of holding these in my personal opinion is that decay is very significant and the risk of US treasures default is not accounted for by any of the issuers. The liquidity on these is also fairly low which is a significant issue. That said, the advantage of them is the incredible (mispricing of) low margin costs and high leverage when IV of the underlying options, spikes. Also if you can manage to hold on to and profit from the capture the dividend, it's entirely possible to reach double digit % returns within a week or month timeframe, dependent on the asset and how you manage your average cost basis with volatility based position sizing or other methods of risk management. That's all I'm really willing to disclose and discuss at this moment. I have to manage the fallout from this just like everyone else. There's no free lunch. Eat Well Bears.
Today, the market focuses on the US non-farm payrolls data for March, including key indicators such as unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls and wage growth. The market generally expects: The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 3.9% The number of farm payrolls may be lower than the previous value of 275,000 The average hourly wage growth rate may slow down From the perspective of expectations, the data is generally favorable for gold. However, it is necessary to be vigilant that the ADP employment data released this week performed strongly. If today's non-farm payrolls are also better than expected, it may put pressure on gold prices. Therefore, it is expected that gold will maintain a volatile pattern during the day, waiting for data guidance. Technical analysis Daily level: Yesterday, the gold price fluctuated violently, first falling from the high of 3167 to the low of 3062, a drop of $1,000, and then rebounding strongly from the low of 3054 to 3135 during the US trading period, and finally closed at around 3100 The daily line formed a large negative line with an ultra-long lower shadow, showing a fierce battle between bulls and bears $3100 became a key psychological barrier, which was both the low point of yesterday's retracement and the previous double bottom support 1-hour level: The moving average system showed signs of turning downward, and the downward trend line suppression level moved down to around 3108 Key price Upper resistance: 3108 (trend line suppression) → 3135 (yesterday's US trading high) Lower support: 3100 (psychological barrier) → 3085 → 3057/3054 (top and bottom conversion position) Trading strategy Short strategy: Entry point: around 3108 (trend line suppression) Stop loss: above 3118 Target: around 3060 Applicable conditions: no strong breakthrough in European session Long strategy: First look at 3100 support, and try long with a light position if it stabilizes If it falls below 3100, pay attention to the support level of 3085/3057 For a better profit and loss ratio, you can consider arranging mid-term long orders Risk warning Non-agricultural data may cause violent fluctuations. It is recommended to reduce positions or wait and see before the data If the European session breaks through the suppression of 3118, you need to give up the idea of short orders Strictly control stop loss and guard against false breakthrough risks Pay attention to the impact of the difference between the actual value of the data and the expectation on the market Summary Gold has entered the consolidation stage after experiencing a huge shock of 100 points. Non-agricultural data may become a key factor in breaking the current balance. Suggestions for investors: 3108 is the watershed for the Asian and European sessions, and high-altitude trading is the main focus Adjust positions before the US session to cope with the non-agricultural market Focus on the breakthrough of 3100 support and 3108 resistance Flexibly adjust strategies based on actual performance after data is released
Yesterday, EURUSD broke above the previous high and reached 1,1146. To identify potential targets in a continuing trend, we use Fibonacci extensions. EURUSD hit the first target (61.8%) yesterday and bounced off from there. The next resistance levels are around the previous highs at 1,1178. If that level breaks, the next target would be 1,1328. At the current levels, it's important not to take excessive risk - consider reducing position size and only entering trades with a solid setup!
### **Chart Description: GBP/USD Short Trade Setup** This chart represents a **GBP/USD (British Pound to US Dollar) 1-hour timeframe** trade setup, highlighting key technical levels for a potential **short (sell) trade**. #### **Key Components:** - **Short-Term Resistance (1.31450 - 1.31600 Zone):** A price area where GBP/USD has faced selling pressure. - **Entry Point (1.30970):** The suggested level to enter the short position. - **Stop Loss (SL) at 1.31450:** If the price moves above this level, the trade is invalidated. - **Target (1.29376):** The price target based on previous support levels. - **Support Zone (1.29200 - 1.29400):** A historically strong buying zone where price is expected to react.
GBPCAD LONGS (PLEASE WATCH THE FULL VIDEO!) * gbocad is extremely bullish and NFP is tomorrow * Price is making higher highs and higher lows
Raydium consolidation. in high time frame this aset not interested, but who knows, if liquidity in aset Raydium mybe will jump
1. Market Structure & Technical Setup Recent technical charts for gold (XAU/USD) indicate that the price has been forming a pattern characterized by higher highs and higher lows. This type of price action suggests that, despite periods of consolidation, there is an underlying bullish trend. Notably, a shorter-term moving average (such as the 20-period SMA) appears to be acting as a dynamic support, helping to cushion short-term price declines. In contrast, longer-term moving averages (like the 100 SMA and 200 SMA) provide a broader view of the trend and help traders confirm the overall bias of the market. In technical terms, the market has been consolidating around key support levels—for example, areas observed near price levels such as ~$2,985, ~$3,000, and ~$3,015. At the same time, resistance levels exist around the ~$3,030–$3,060 region. This consolidation phase is often interpreted as the market preparing for a potential breakout upward, particularly if the price successfully breaches these resistance levels. 2. Fundamental Drivers On the fundamental side, gold remains significantly influenced by global economic factors: Given these factors, even though technical indicators point to a bullish trend over the longer term, short-term fluctuations can occur due to shifts in economic data or geopolitical events. 3. Trading Implications & Caution For traders, the current analysis suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook on gold. The consolidation phase near key support and resistance levels might signal an imminent upward breakout. However, it’s important to note: Conclusion In summary, the current gold market analysis reveals a market that is technically poised for upward movement, with a bullish long-term cue indicated by higher highs and higher lows, and critical support levels offered by dynamic moving averages. Yet, one should remain cautious due to possible short-term volatility fueled by economic and geopolitical events. By complementing technical analysis with fundamental insights, traders can form a more balanced view and make informed decisions. If you’d like further discussion on how to integrate this analysis into a trading strategy or need additional insights on specific technical indicators, we can dive deeper into those aspects as well.