Moin Leudde! Hier meine Idee eines Bitcoin Break-Outs auf Grundlage der Charts und der Neuigkeit, dass die Zölle auf wichtige Produkte wie Halbleiter und andere elektronischen Produkte nicht kommen werden. 1. Der parallele Abwärtskanal kann durchbrochen werden. 2. Inverse Head&Shoulder Pattern wird getriggert. Measured Move ist ca. 18%. 3. Support direkt unter dem aktuellen Kurs der bereits getestet wurde. 4. Die extrem positiven Zollneuigkeiten werden für steigende Kurse sorgen, was den Move nach Norden supported. 5. Der Dollar, Gold und die 10-Year sind breit für einen Rücksetzer, was zu steigenden Bitcoinkursen führen sollte. 6. Relativ hoher ADR was einen Break Out unterstützen könnte. Auf dem Weg nach oben sind zwei Widerstände zu durchbrechen. Mit der Euphorie am Montag wird dies gelingen. Auf Intradaybasis werden sich hier gut Daytrades realisieren lassen. Je nachdem wie sich die weiter Zollsituation entwickelt, entwickelt sich auch der Kurs von Bitcoin. Da Trump aber bereits jetzt gezwungen wurde eine 90 tägige Pause einzulegen und auch noch Ausnahmen für die wichtigsten Produkte einführen muss, hat er enorm an Handlunsgstärke verloren. Ich gehe davon aus, dass wir das schlimmste gesehen haben. Trump schmeißt ein paar Berater raus, macht irgendeinen Deal (natürlich der greates of all time!) und feiert sich einfach weiter. Ich bin gespannt wie Ihr das seht. Bitte gebt mir Eure Meinung! Schönen Sonntag! Beste Grüße Iron
The market is sending strong signals — both from the crypto sector and the U.S. bond market. Something big is brewing, and it shouldn’t be ignored. In just a few days, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries have jumped from 4% to 4.5%. Traditionally, this kind of move would put pressure on gold — after all, gold pays no interest. But what’s happening instead? Gold is still climbing. This breaks with conventional logic. Something doesn’t add up — either the bond market is acting irrationally, or gold knows something we don’t. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index is falling — and despite rising yields, demand for Treasuries remains weak. This looks like a slow erosion of confidence. Capital is quietly leaving the U.S. — not in the form of a classic bank run, but something similar on a macro scale. That’s why we keep seeing headlines like: “Nobody really knows what’s going on.” But maybe some do. Trust in the dollar and the stability of the U.S. economy may be starting to crack. So what does that mean for us? The Fed will have to step in eventually. And when they do, we know the playbook: more liquidity, rate cuts — the full package. Once that happens, capital will flow heavily into risk-on assets — and not just crypto. The next leg up could be explosive. Some analysts are already calling for a parabolic rally. As one headline in today’s crypto news put it perfectly: Now is the time to diversify — before the Fed makes its move. ? Palm Traders | Free Club https://t.me/palmtraders_group https://de.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/sf71CeQN/
? JPY/USD Rectangle Pattern Breakout | Technical Analysis & Trade Setup ? Overview The JPY/USD pair on the 1-hour chart has presented a high-probability Rectangle Continuation Pattern, signaling a potential bullish continuation after a period of consolidation. This technical formation, combined with price action confirmation and a favorable risk-to-reward setup, offers an excellent opportunity for breakout traders. ? Chart Pattern Analysis: Rectangle Formation A Rectangle Pattern is a form of price consolidation, where the asset trades sideways within a clearly defined horizontal support and resistance zone. It reflects market indecision or accumulation/distribution by larger players before a directional move resumes. ? Key Observations: Support Zone: ~0.006838 Marked by multiple rejection wicks and price bounces. Buyers consistently stepped in at this level. Resistance Zone: ~0.006976 Capped by repeated rejections, suggesting strong short-term seller pressure. ? This pattern spans several days, allowing price to build energy before a breakout, indicating institutional positioning. ⚙️ Price Action Breakdown Initial Downtrend into Support: The chart begins with a bearish move, finding demand at the support zone. Box Formation (Rectangle) : Price oscillates within the horizontal range, creating a textbook rectangle pattern. This is often a pause in trend rather than reversal. Bullish Breakout: Price breaches the upper resistance line with strong bullish candles, indicating increased buying momentum. Post-Breakout Consolidation & Retest: Price pulls back slightly to the breakout zone (previous resistance) — a classic support-resistance flip, ideal for re-entry. ? Trade Setup: Bullish Breakout Play ✅ Entry Zone: Around 0.006965 after the bullish breakout and brief retest. ? Stop-Loss (SL): Set at 0.006916, just below the rectangle’s support zone and breakout base. This level invalidates the setup if breached — a key component of trade risk management. ? Take-Profit Levels: TP1: 0.007047 — first significant resistance or extension level. TP2 (Final Target): 0.007108 — measured move of the rectangle’s height added to breakout point. ? Risk-to-Reward (R:R): Risk: ~4.9 pips Reward: ~14.3 pips R:R Ratio: ~1:2.9 — excellent setup by professional standards. ? Deeper Technical Confluence ✅ Trend Continuation Bias: The breakout is in alignment with the prevailing bullish trend before consolidation. ✅ Strong Candle Structure: Large-bodied candles after breakout, showing conviction. ✅ Higher Lows Forming: Indicates sustained buying interest and demand strength. ✅ Psychological Price Level: Break above 0.007000 could further fuel bullish momentum. ? Trading Psychology Insight Many traders hesitate to enter at breakouts, fearing false moves. However, by waiting for the retest, we increase our edge and reduce risk. This is how professional traders build confidence in price structure, rather than chasing candles blindly. Patience and discipline in such setups is what separates consistency from randomness in trading. ? Summary of the Setup Component Level / Insight Pattern Rectangle Breakout (Bullish) Timeframe 1 Hour (Scalp to Short-Term Swing) Entry 0.006965 (After breakout & retest) SL (Stop Loss) 0.006916 (Below breakout zone) TP1 0.007047 (Minor resistance) TP2 (Target) 0.007108 (Projected move) Risk:Reward ~1:2.9 — Favorable for momentum trade ? Final Thought This setup is a classic example of breakout trading — price consolidates, builds pressure, and then surges once accumulation ends. Patience for breakout confirmation and smart SL/TP planning is key. ? Note : Always monitor news events or macroeconomic catalysts that may impact the Yen or USD during your trade duration.
SMC Trading point update analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair on a 1-hour timeframe, and it presents a potential bearish setup. Here's a breakdown of the idea: Key Elements: Resistance Zone (around 1.14182): The price is currently approaching a marked resistance area. The analysis suggests this could be a turning point where price may reverse. Projected Movement (Black Arrows): The chart predicts a double top formation or a rejection from the resistance level, followed by a strong move downward. Target Point: The drop is expected to reach the key support zone around 1.10942, aligning with a previous structure and a potential liquidity zone. EMA 200 (around 1.10389): Price remains well above the 200 EMA, suggesting the trend is still bullish overall, but the setup targets a potential correction or short-term reversal. RSI Indicator (~60): RSI is above 60 but not overbought yet. This supports the idea that there's room for one more push up into resistance before a drop. Mr SMC Trading point Summary of the Idea: 1. Watch for price reaction around 1.14182. 2. If there's a clear rejection or double top, a short position may be considered. 3. Target area is around 1.10942. 4. The setup assumes a corrective move in a broader bullish trend. plase support boost ? analysis follow)
Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Over here I will be sharing my analysis for this week. Mainly On: EURUSD EURAUD EURNZD BTC USDSGD Moving forward I will separate both the Trade review and Coming week trade analysis for easy viewing! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
GBPUSD is trending in uptredn channel and is likely to go up with possible Support level. let us see...
NIFTY Weekly Analysis , uptrend coming? WAIT AND WATCH THE LEVEL AND ONLY CONSIDER.
1. Entry Zones: Conservative Entry: Wait for a pullback to the 0.4993–0.4880 support zone (around Fibonacci 0.236 level). Aggressive Entry: Enter after a confirmed breakout and strong bullish candle close above 0.5163 resistance. --- 2. Take-Profit Targets: --- 3. Stop-Loss Levels: Conservative Entry SL: Below 0.4700 (beneath Fib 0.382 support). Aggressive Entry SL: Below 0.5100 (in case of false breakout rejection). --- 4. Risk/Reward Ratio (RRR): Conservative Entry: ~2.5 to 3 Aggressive Entry: ~1.8 to 2.5 --- 5. Entry Confirmation Checklist: Bullish crossover in Stochastic RSI RSI holding above 50 Strong bullish candlestick pattern (e.g. Marubozu, Bullish Engulfing) --- 6. Additional Notes: Use position sizing (e.g. 30% initial, 30% on pullback, 40% after breakout) Move SL to breakeven after TP1 hits Consider trailing stop for TP2 and
TVC:DXY the dollar index, was the primary driver of the equity bear market in 2022. With TVC:DXY hitting a 5 year high of 114 marked the bottom in AMEX:SPY and $QQQ. The recent strength in TVC:DXY was out of stock with TVC:DXY and Stock markets rising at the same time and dropping when the TVC:DXY is falling. Usually, the risk assets have an inverse correlation to the US Dollar index. These periods in history are unusual and are marked by some kind of macro events like recession etc. With tariffs discussion everywhere that might not be unrealistic to expect some kind of recession. In that case where is the TVC:DXY headed? Currently the TVC:DXY is at a psychological level of 100. Once it breaks below 100 the next stop might be 95. If we see some kind of soft recession which is my worst-case scenario then we might see the lows of 90 in $DXY. If TVC:DXY goes down by 10% or lower than we can expect to the FX:EURUSD to go back to its recent high of 1.23. Verdict: Short TVC:DXY ; Long FX:EURUSD , AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ
This chart remains unchanged from the last time I posted it except for the addition of that yellow Dashed Arrow As we can see, PA fell below the Fractal in Late February and ever since, we have ranged further away from it. Does this mean we have left the fractal we have been on since November 2021 ? Not really. PA fell below it in 2022 due to pressures from Interest rates making companies collapse and sentiment being negative. We have fallen below it this time purely because PA was so overbought, it needed to recover. This can be very clearly seen on the Weekly MACD, where in 2024, we ranged for months because of the same reason. https://www.tradingview.com/x/LQoN2CLg/ See how on the weekly MACD, how once we reached near Neutral, we bounced back up to a New ATH and, ever since, BTC PA has ranged while waiting for the MACD to cool off.. And now we are there. MACD is in the bounce zone and has shown some strength in the last few days. So, The Fractal For PA to get back above that Fractal, we need PA to make a very strong push higher. and as you can see from the Bold Arrow, this is achievable by end of May if PA rises Strong and continually form here. I am not to sure this will happen. We have so many Macro events destabilising the markets... I am more inclined to think PA will hit that circle , and we will likely follow the Dashed Arrow to a cycle ATH of near 300K, by the end of the year at the latest. This is the Path of safety. Things can always change for the better or for the worse and so we have to be ready for all occasions. But BULLISH is the word - BUT BITCOIN ON SPOT, HOLD IT AND RELAX