Posting an update this chart so I can show a zoomed in look at the daily price action with the measured move lines readjusted to the exact breakout points of the two chart patterns to provide ore accurate breakout targets. I will link the original chart idea i posted of these 2 patterns below. *not financial advice*
What if an AI agent was created for each bitcoin? Allow the owner(s) to actively participate in the network? Think of all the data, computational power and community building. Any suggestions? Lets build!
If 1 hr candle rejects 4068 than Short with Target @ 3930 Sl 1% of your account.
XEM potensial to be something big gain already breakout downtrendline can be breakout or retest first before PUMP volume increase in past day buy and hold in this bullseason sell if invalid bullseason :)
WAXP ~ 1W #WAXP This trade is high risk. But if you still have Conviction on this coin. Buy in stages from here. with a minimum target of 20%+ it is only a matter of time until this resistance line is broken.
Keeping an eye on #FXS/USDT Diagonal trendline in 4-Hour TF! I will be looking for a short position in $FXS. Added some in-spot bags too. The local support level is PWH $3.809.
Tron has been a major overperformer with catching a niche in the growing stablecoin market. While BNB has been losing market share both in its chain and with its exchange.. BNB does still look strong. It does still share an ongoing fractal with TRX. It does look like relative to its weaker performance itll grow. I suspect TRX will pull BNB into a breakout of highs. Whether itll lead to gains as great as TRX Im not sure. Im not sure if BNB is the best risk reward but I do think BNB could follow TRX soon with not much relative to market risk.
Trading Plan: 1. General Strategy Capital Allocation: Allocate 20% of capital to short-term trades (timeframes ≤ 1h) and 80% to longer-term trades (timeframes > 1h). Risk Management: Use a stop-loss of 1% below entry price for long positions and 1% above entry price for short positions to limit risk. 2. Timeframe-Based Strategy 5min, 15min, 30min (Prediction: UNKNOWN) Action: Wait for more data or pattern confirmation. Rationale: No clear prediction; avoid entering speculative trades without sufficient evidence. 1h (Prediction: DOWN) Action: Enter a Sell Position Entry Price: Current market price. Take Profit Price: 99,670.37 USD. Stop-Loss: 1% above entry price. Reasoning: The prediction indicates a downward movement of 544.77 USD within approximately 44.81 minutes. 4h (Prediction: UP) Action: Enter a Buy Position Entry Price: Current market price. Take Profit Price: 100,936.82 USD. Stop-Loss: 1% below entry price. Reasoning: The prediction suggests an upward movement of 721.68 USD within approximately 86.84 minutes. 1day (Prediction: UP) Action: Enter a Buy Position Entry Price: Current market price. Take Profit Price: 100,559.25 USD. Stop-Loss: 1% below entry price. Reasoning: The prediction forecasts an upward movement of 344.11 USD within approximately 95.66 minutes, providing a medium-term opportunity. 3. Monitoring and Adjustments Frequency of Monitoring: For short-term trades (≤1h), monitor every 10 minutes. For longer-term trades (>1h), monitor every 30 minutes. Adjustments: Reassess if market sentiment, volume, or pattern confirmation diverges significantly from the prediction.
If you draw a fib from the high to the low of the 2022 drop in MSTR, you'll see we have now completed all of the fibs of this swing. In this post we're going to take a detailed look at two things; 1 - How a trend typically forms heading into a 4.23 extension. 2 - What typically happens at 4.23 extensions. Everything we cover here will be generic rules for trend development. It's equally valid on bull and bear moves (we'll use examples of both) and it can be used on any timeframe. We're going to stick to big charts for this but these same concepts also scale down to day trading. We are going to look at these specific hypothesis'; 1.27 - 1.61 will produce some sort of pullback. The breaking of 1.61 will produce a steady trend to at least 2.20. Around 2.20 - 2.61 there will be some sort of reaction. The move from 2.61 to 4.23 is very strong. 4.23s can mark the end of major moves. These conditions in MSTR are marked into the chart pic. Let me show you another example on a bear trend to get us started. This was the last bull swing before the 2007-2008 reversal. We're using the topping swing for our fib. We can draw this really early as soon as we see the first possible break. https://www.tradingview.com/x/lAqjQPbl/ We drop to the 1.61 and then we bounce. It looks like a recovery in real time. https://www.tradingview.com/x/1Txr56r0/ Then once the 1.61 is broken we drop quickly to the 2.20. https://www.tradingview.com/x/iSF6N0PM/ Look closely here. The move to the 2.20 isn't the big red candle. There's a wick. That tells us this was a flash event. Crashed to the support, rapid bear trap. Filling our conditions of the expectations of a 1.61 break and the reaction 2.20. The wick candle pullback went to around 1.61 and then there was capitulation when the 2.61 was broken. https://www.tradingview.com/x/HFQyWBVY/ We get to the the Final Boss of the fibs. The 4.23. There's a head fake under it and then a recovery back over it. https://www.tradingview.com/x/0P3ASqM5/ And the 2008 crash is over. https://www.tradingview.com/x/rA0aSXjs/ Want another one? Here's BB. The pattern expressed over a very long time. Full booms and bust. https://www.tradingview.com/x/8SD95IIL/ Saw a lot of these patterns in 2021. Imagine if you could have used the same playbook we can observe on the all time BB chart and used the same set of rules to understand all the key parts of the 2021 trend. That'd be weird. https://www.tradingview.com/x/BPFEv4Vh/ Attached is a pic of the real time 2021 mention of fading the BB rally at the 4.23 (just to show this isn't just perfect fitting after the fact). https://www.tradingview.com/x/cf48TAVG/ Let's jump back to another low. Here was the BTC low. https://www.tradingview.com/x/j0pbI5MJ/ Or a bull one. https://www.tradingview.com/x/NDMe5Dgv/ What Happens at 4.23 Fibs? Most of the time when 4.23 fibs are hit there is a large correction or a full blown reversal. Cases of 4.23's breaking without retesting the 1.61 - 1.27 (and that's a crash, big move) are rarer. In the times there is a 4.23 breakout, the following trend is usually exceptional. When looking at big instances of failed 4.23s they're usually found around the middle of a bubble or crash (depending on if it's a bull or bear break). It's much more difficult to show examples of the failed ones without being able to zoom in and out a lot, but you can look for them in places like the Nasdaq bubble, NVDA rally and in failure points of uptrends heading into crashes. Almost invariably, the trend goes into a state of hyper performance if the 4.23 is broken. However, if it is not broken - then we're usually going to ultimately end up spiking out the 1.27 fib. Which round trips most of the move. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Kpdp7Gkq/ If MSTR is a 4.23 blow off, it's give up most of the gains of the recent rally. That is inside of the bullish perspective. The correction comes to 1.27. If 1.27 fails, then you can end up with that lifetime BB chart. Action around the 4.23 itself is fraught with caveats when it comes to actionable trading. You have to always have the assumption that if you're wrong you're going to be betting against a punishing trend and you have to be risk cautious and quick to get out / plan new levels. It always has to be remembered if wrong, the fade will fail spectacularly. Further complicating things is we really can't be sure what sort of 4.23 head fake we're going to get. There are times we reverse right at the 4.23. Or come up a bit shy of it. Other times we make a nominal head fake that you could have started betting against almost as soon as it got passed the level and it went nothing but well for you. Then there are the super blow offs. BB was somewhere in the range of 20 - 25% blow off. I remember this well (I'd shorted the 4.23 touch) it only lasted an exceptionally brief amount of time and was ultimately the Mother of all wicks but if I'd be fully exposed to all that price move - wouldn't have mattered. I'd probably have got nailed before it. When it comes to the actual tactical betting on a 4.23 reversal, it's tricky. The core underlying theory of the 4.23 decision is a simple binary one though. Usually when the 4.23 is hit we're going to head into hyper trend conditions. These can be higher (and this is hard to quantify targets for with fibs) or they can be crashes (which we can usually roadmap with the 1.61 - 2.20 - 4.23 thing). Extremely polarizing level here. Either all fib bases bear cases are entirely annulled for the foreseeable future or a drop of about 75% is setting up. The 4.23 pullback/reversal is the far more common outcome. ==== Bonus doom posting: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ol7ouTuq/
Theta is turning momentum in the higher timeframes to bullish alongside breaking the value area high from apr24 with a monthly candle showing really good strength to continue climbing up. The target is in confluency with weekly/monthly levels, fibonacci levels and anchored vwap/point of control from the last bull run highs. TARGET: $5,75 to $7,22 up to (+120%)