FNV has reached a key resistance around 158.2. There are two factors suggesting a continuation of the upward trend: Prolonged Sideways Movement: The stock has been trading sideways for an extended period, and this time, the 158.2 level is more likely to be broken. Robust Upward Momentum: The recent upward move toward the key resistance appears strong and persistent, indicating buying interest. However, there are some cautionary signs: Significant YTD Increase: The stock has risen considerably this year, driven by a sharp increase in gold prices. Historical Return Limits: FNV has almost reached the 70th percentile of its historical returns, suggesting that the potential upside may be limited to around 20% based on past performance. Resistance-Induced Selling Pressure: Reaching a key resistance level could trigger selling as investors take profits. Overall Conclusion: While FNV shows signs of potential upward continuation due to strong momentum and a prolonged consolidation period, the limited upside based on historical returns and the risk of profit-taking at a key resistance level warrant caution. A breakout above 158.2 could signal further gains, but the room for upside may be relatively modest. Monitoring for confirmation before entering new positions or considering partial profit-taking on existing holdings would be a prudent approach.
Welcome back to Week in Review! Elon Musk says that xAI bought X in an all-stock deal; a16z-backed 11x faked some customers; the Lumon Terminal Pro pops up on Apple’s website; and much more. Let’s dig in! xAI buys X: X owner Elon Musk announced on X on Friday that xAI acquired X in an […]
Die Wärmepumpe soll in Deutschland dafür sorgen, dass ihr möglichst unabhängig von fossilen Brennstoffen werdet und klimafreundlicher heizt. Doch wie lange hält so eine Wärmepumpe eigentlich? Ein Experte verrät, worauf es besonders ankommt, damit ihr möglichst lange etwas von der teuren Anschaffung habt.
Bitcoin breaks the 83 area, I expect bulls to descend in the coming days to the 71--68 test area
The price has already dropped to the support line of the inner channel (in light blue), which is at one standard deviation. If this support line is also broken, the next support level is the outer channel (in yellow), which is at two standard deviations. (Logarithmic price axis, channel starting from 2008)
Well, after much fanfare it is finally here! No, not the SSW event, not the Liberation Day (Trump’s April Tariffs), but the shoulder season! That important time of the year for energy traders to watch the price of NG drop faster than Trump’s current approval ratings! The cyclical trade in energy warrants a movement of funds this time of the year to Crude oil, then eventually Gasoline. As discussed, a few weeks ago this constant movement in energy trades keeps the asset allocations inline with seasonal trends in energy usage and the funds fat and happy. But this year we have the ultimate monkey in the works, true market dynamics! Although with the upcoming Liberation Day tariffs starting this coming Wednesday, 4/2/25, the market once again is on edge with the unknown unknowns! As the broad equity market has sold off this quarter, we have seen a movement into commodities, especially NG (sorry Gold bugs!). The underlying weakness in global oil demand, and the inability for oil producing nations and majors to temper supply has led to a glut in worldwide crude stockpiling. Yesterday’s Crude Oil COT report showed commercials with a net short position of -208,888 (an increase in short positions by 3,580 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +197,061. This is not a common seasonal response in the Oil markets. Normally the December to May timeframe is a season of oil accumulation by major traders and the petro industry. This demand is not without purpose; it marks the onset of preparations for the impending summer driving season. Refiners embark on a strategic accumulation of crude oil inventory for gasoline production, laying the groundwork for oil price increases in the months ahead. But with softness in the overall global markets, downward revisions in GDP, Trump tariff uncertainty, and the big electrification to the transportation sector. There is a bearish undertone to the global oil and gasoline market this year. Remember what was discussed. The global nature of institutional energy traders is to trade crude in the spring (as NG sells off), gasoline in the summer (as oil sells off), NG in the fall (as diesel sells off), and diesel/heating oil in the winter (as gasoline sells off). This round robing of trades allows the savvy trader to expect entry and exit points, or to determine the overall direction of seasonal trends. But throw that out this year! The past few months NG and Oil have been trading inversely with each other, almost to the dollar! So, that leaves us with a tremendous amount of allocated worldwide capital in the one energy trade left. NG! But, not without merit! Natural Gas has a tremendous amount of underlying fundamental support. Lower than normal storage (currently 6.5% below 5-yer average), increasing power generation demand, increasing exports via pipeline to Mexico, increasing LNG export (currently hit a record at 16.7 BCF/d this week and expected to hit 18 BCF/d next month), and stagnant production (NG rig count down 9% y/y, oil down 4.5% y/y). The producers have finally understood that producing too much NG will probably affect the price in a negative way. Last week’s energy conference in Houston, TX had one general theme from all the energy majors. Supply restraint/discipline and an increase in infrastructure. There must have been some concerted effort, because the catch phrase all week was not “Drill baby Drill” but “Build baby Build” The discussion was that Trump’s lowering of barriers for pipeline construction and LNG export facilities is what is going to give them a reason to drill. But, for the time being they need takeaway capacity. They will continue to keep rigs out of the field until that happens. Imports from Canada are at a 2-year low, due to the increase in heating demand in Canada, due to the SSW event taking hold up north. Increasing demand, stagnant production = higher prices! Weather related demand has decreased with the unusually warm March. But the SSW event is now affecting Canada. If not for the main Pacific Teleconnection, the EPO, this cold bottled up in Canada would have brought seasonal temperature to the US. But!!!!!!! Now the EPO(negative) Teleconnection is aligning with the SSW event and the models over the past week have been printing colder. I expect the month of April to end up below average. Which could possibly lead to one, maybe to more storage withdrawals, outside the withdrawal season. As of earlier this week, April is now projected to end the storage deficit created during the withdrawal season. But if we can head into the month of May with a continued deficit, we can expect elevated prices for the summer strip. The summer forecasts are currently coming out, which is showing dry and hot conditions from the Rockies west to the Mississippi River. The current storage deficit in the South Central region (-10.5%) and the Midwest (-16.2%), will be the main driver for price appreciation due to weather related issues. Years that had a SSW event in the months of March and April, statistically have very hot May and June months that follow. This kick start to the summer cooling season is another reason for the predicted elevated prices this summer. This is not 2024! Do not expect for historic low process to return, bar a pandemic or a worldwide global recession. There will be price volatility, but not a complete dropping of the floor price. Near term pricing: Ever since moving above the 100D SMA back at the end of December the 50D SMA has held up wonderfully as support during last four months. Since Tuesday the 50D SMA has continued to hold, except for a brief 12 hour period, but the price showed bullish support by retracing, touching and bouncing back off. The weekly low bounced off the lower SD of the BB. This another bullish conformation. The weekly low dropped below the 38.2% fib level and reclaimed upward momentum, another bullish sign, only to move up past the 50% fib level. The psychological 4000 level, another bullish indicator. When technical and fundamentals align, we should pay close attention and listen! I am watching 4170, 4252, and 4316 for my immediate term resistance levels. If 4316 is broken, the upper BB SD and the 78.6% swing retracement level 4570 is next. For support, 3953, 3854, 3729. If there is a break below the 3729 then the 23.6% swing retracement level at 3560 would be up next. I am of the belief that the market is expected to travel higher. But there are many reasons for continued range bound days. So, I will be setting these levels to range trade until I see an indication for otherwise. Keep it Burning!
If the midline of the linear regression channel is broken, the price will continue to decline until it reaches the support line of the inner channel (in light blue), which is at one standard deviation. In the less likely event that this support line is also broken, we have the support line of the outer channel (in yellow), which is at two standard deviations. (Logarithmic price axis, channel starting from 2008)
? Daily Timeframe: As forecasted by 4CastMachine AI last week, EURUSD started corrective decline. This decline may continue, but the support area of 1.0732 could trigger a rebound. If this area is broken, the price will decline to the support area of 1.0600 to 1.0527. This area, which was previously a major resistance, will become a major support, creating a good buying opportunity. So, given the long-term uptrend, we can use this area as a long-term BUY ZONE. ? H4 Timeframe: The Downtrend was a corrective wave and is broken now. It suggests we will soon see another leg higher. ? H1 Timeframe: The price is in an UpTrend. The bullish wave is expected to continue as long as the price is above the strong Support at 1.0732 1.0802 resistance is broken now. It will act as a support now! Forecast: Correction wave toward the Buy Zone Another Downward Impulse wave toward Lower TPs
• CMP: ₹378| Stop Loss: ₹405 Target:*310 DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a SEBI registered advisor or a financial adviser. All the views are for educational purpose only.
Yet again, BINANCE:BNBUSDT.P , failed to break that dailytf barrier, Sellers took control again. i have shared my views about BNBUSDT on this very post, reason to my entry and exist are all on the post, pls take your time out to view the content of the post.