Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1H time frame and is trading in its medium-term bearish channel. In the authentic failure of the support area, we can see the continuation of the gold decline and the demand zone. Within the zone of demand, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. If the resistance range is broken, you can sell in the supply zone. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is scheduled for today. According to a recent report by Crédit Agricole, it is expected that during the December meeting, the interest rate will be reduced by 0.25%, bringing it to a range of 4.25-4.50%. While this rate cut has largely been priced into the market, the Fed’s monetary statement may carry a hawkish tone. It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will indicate slower rate cuts in 2025 due to resilient economic conditions and persistent inflation. Crédit Agricole predicts that Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, will likely hint at pausing rate cuts early in 2025. Additionally, recent employment and inflation data from November suggest that the Fed is in a position to implement this rate cut. However, the risks associated with persistent inflation indicate that the rate-cutting cycle will progress more gradually. Crédit Agricole estimates that interest rate projections for 2025 could be revised to 3.625% and for 2026 to 3.125%. These figures represent reductions of 0.75% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, showing smaller decreases compared to earlier forecasts. According to the Financial Times, Israeli negotiators have met with mediators in Doha to discuss a ceasefire with Hamas and the release of hostages from Gaza. These talks are taking place ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration in January. Both Israeli and U.S. officials remain cautiously optimistic about reaching an agreement, though disagreements over key details persist. The Israeli negotiating team arrived in Qatar on Monday, focusing on resolving major points of contention. It is expected that both sides will respond to a recent mediator proposal, which includes a six-to-eight-week ceasefire and the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. These discussions have intensified following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections. Steven Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, has met with Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatar’s Prime Minister to advance the agreement. Despite progress, significant challenges remain, including disagreements over the number of hostages to be freed and the presence of Israeli forces in Gaza. While Hamas has softened its stance somewhat, substantial differences still exist. UBS, in its recent report, has projected that gold prices will reach $2,900 per ounce by the end of 2025. A key factor highlighted by UBS is the continued demand for gold from central banks, driven by the declining value of the dollar and diversification of reserves. UBS expects central bank gold purchases to remain strong throughout 2025, supporting elevated gold prices. Moreover, investor demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical and policy uncertainties will play a significant role in maintaining high gold prices. UBS points to ongoing concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle Eastern tensions, and uncertain fiscal and trade policies under the incoming administration of Donald Trump. These factors could boost investment in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Lower interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar are additional factors that could drive gold prices higher. UBS predicts that interest rate cuts will continue and the dollar will weaken further, which will bolster demand for gold. In addition to gold, UBS has identified opportunities in copper and other transition metals. Global investments in power generation, energy storage, and electric transportation are expected to serve as long-term drivers of demand for these metals.
The Nifty intraday trend is likely to be bearish tomorrow ie December 19, 2024. The positional trend also looks bearish till the end of the month. There are strong support zones for Nifty spot on the positional side at 23678 and 23381 by end of December 2024. For the positional Nifty trend forecast chart, please refer to the post dated on 30th November 2024 published for Trading view members only. The content provided here is only for the educational purposes.
Hello Dear Traders, ### **1. Overview of the Chart** - **Gann Trend 1/1 Line:** Represented by the red diagonal trendline, indicating a significant Gann angle. - **Parallel Channels:** Yellow and white lines represent upward-sloping price channels. - **Current Price:** **30,474.90 EGP** - **RSI Indicator:** The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is displayed at the bottom to show market momentum. --- ### **2. Key Observations** 1. **Price Position Relative to Gann Line:** - The price is hovering **near the Gann 1/1 line** (red trendline) acting as resistance now.. - This line acts as both a **support** and a **resistance**. A break above this line may trigger further bullish momentum. 2. **Price Channels:** - The price is trading within an **upward-sloping channel**. - **Midline (white):** The price has been consolidating near this critical area. A sustained move below this level could target the lower channel boundary. - **Upper Boundary:** Resistance lies near **32,000 - 33,000 EGP**. - **Lower Boundary:** Support near **30113 - 29,000 EGP**. 3. **RSI Analysis:** - **Current RSI Value:** **39.60**, which indicates the market is **approaching oversold conditions**. - **RSI-based Moving Average:** **49.92** shows bearish momentum. --- ### **3. Potential Scenarios** #### **Bullish Scenario:** - **Condition:** Price holds above the **Gann 1/1 line** and rebounds towards the upper channel. - **Target Levels:** - **32,000 - 33,000 EGP** (upper boundary). - **Current support from here to **30,113 EGP** --- ### **4. Recommendations:** - **Short-term Traders:** Watch for price behavior near the **Gann 1/1 line** and RSI support. - **Breakout Watch:** Monitor price for a break above the current channel midline. - **Confirmation Signals:** Use **RSI divergence** or price reaction near **30,113 EGP** for entry signals.
Gold appears to be completing an Elliott Wave correction pattern Wave ((4)) is forming a regular correction near $2665 level Once Wave ((4)) is complete, expect Wave ((5)) to move towards $2600-$2590 area Key invalidation level remains at $2699.91 Short positions can be considered after Wave ((4)) completion and momentum confirmation Current price action suggests limited upside potential before bearish continuation Keep in mind wave patterns can shift. Always use proper risk management and wait for clear confirmation before entering trades. Stay cautious around key economic events and monitor dollar strength which could impact the expected move.
Formula de las fuerzas bajistas , 0,65 y abajo , baja de tasas.................................
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