? Key Observations from the Charts 1. Market Structure & Price Action: * AAPL recently rejected from the upper trendline (~248.69) and is now testing the lower bound of its rising wedge pattern. * Support: Near 245.10 (POC) and 243.51 (previous support level). * Resistance: 247-248.69 (VAH & recent high). * If AAPL fails to hold 245, the next downside target is 241.84. 2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels: * Point of Control (POC): 245.83 → Key liquidity area. * Value Area High (VAH): 246.78 → Resistance zone. * Value Area Low (VAL): 241.84 → Next major support below POC. 3. Indicators Review: * MACD: Bearish crossover, confirming downside momentum. * Stochastic RSI: Oversold, but not yet curling upward. ?️ Options GEX Analysis https://www.tradingview.com/x/zwscR8Ke/ * Call Resistance: * 250 → Highest positive NETGEX & Call Wall (strong resistance). * 255-260 → Additional call walls (unlikely unless sentiment shifts). * Put Walls & Support Zones: * 225 & 220 → Highest Put Walls & Support (-7.3% & -11.9%). * AAPL could see increased downside volatility below 240 if 243.50 breaks. * Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx): * IVR 31.4 | IVx Avg 40.8 → Slightly elevated, but not extreme. * Put Positioning at Only 5.9% → Limited hedging, suggesting downside may accelerate on breakdowns. ? Trade Setups & Game Plan ? Bearish Scenario (Preferred Setup) ? Entry: Short below 245 confirmation. ? Target 1: 243.51 (next support). ? Target 2: 241.84 (VAL). ? Stop-Loss: Above 247 (invalidates breakdown). ? Options Strategy: * Buy PUTS 245/240 expiring 1-2 weeks out if breakdown confirms. * Debit Put Spread (Bearish 245P/235P for risk control). ? Bullish Scenario (Less Likely) ? Entry: If price reclaims 247-248, targeting 250+. ? Target 1: 250 (Highest GEX resistance). ? Target 2: 255 (next gamma squeeze level). ? Stop-Loss: Below 245 invalidates upside move. ? Options Strategy: * Sell 240/235 Put Credit Spread for a bounce play. ? My Thoughts & Suggestions * Main Bias: Bearish, unless 247+ is reclaimed. * Gamma Risks: Below 243.50, strong gamma exposure can push AAPL lower quickly. * Options Play: Puts look stronger based on GEX positioning & technical weakness. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Corn is net-short on the regression break There is a negative roll of (-2.8%) on this pair. I am considering to enter for a short peroid.
Bitcoin continues to consolidate in the 90k - 106k area! Recently there was an act of theft from the ByBit cold wallet, resulting in over $1.5 billion worth of ETH being stolen. This is definitely a negative backdrop, we have seen good support from other exchanges and crypto project funders. Theoretically, it would be possible to roll the chain back as Arthur Hayes suggested, but it doesn't seem to be possible, although it would definitely play in favor of the bulls. I would expect a drop to the $91800 area for several reasons: 1. Bear dominance. This can be seen in the bullish and bearish volume indicator. Bullish volumes have fallen while strong sales volume growth is noticeable. 2. Elliott Wave Correction 3. BlackRock sold 3,283 BTC before the ByBit hack and has yet to buy more. 4. According to the smart money concept, 92400-91200 is a magnet. 5. Need to liquidate a large number of long positions that gained momentum after leaving the 99k level. Horban Brothers.
? Key Observations from the Charts 1. Market Structure Breakdown: * MSFT experienced a sharp decline, breaking below previous support levels around 412 and heading towards 408. * The trend remains bearish as price is rejecting from a lower high after a significant breakdown. * Volume profile suggests strong liquidity near 408, with 405.82 as the next critical downside level. 2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels: * Point of Control (POC): ~408 (high liquidity, potential reaction zone). * Value Area High (VAH): ~412-413 (prior resistance). * Value Area Low (VAL): ~405.82 (possible next support). * Below 405, there's a liquidity gap, meaning price could fall sharply to 400-395 if selling pressure increases. 3. Indicators Review: * MACD: Bearish momentum increasing. * Stochastic RSI: Slightly oversold but not yet curling upward—potential for more downside. * VWAP: Price is trading below VWAP, confirming bearish control. ?️ Options GEX Analysis https://www.tradingview.com/x/Sr5cL739/ * Call Resistance: * 420 → Highest positive NETGEX & Call Wall (strong resistance). * 430-440 → Heavy call positioning (unlikely to reach unless trend shifts). * Put Walls & Support Zones: * 390 & 385 → Highest Put Walls & Support (-50% & -30% levels). * 395 → Second Major Put Wall (-39%). * If price breaks 405, it may accelerate toward 400-395 due to gamma exposure. * Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx): * IVR 28.5 | IVx Avg 34.9 → Slightly elevated but not extreme. * Call Positioning Only 7.3% → Options traders are not betting heavily on upside. ? Trade Setups & Game Plan ? Bearish Scenario (Preferred Setup) ? Entry: Short below 408 confirmation. ? Target 1: 405.82 (VAL). ? Target 2: 400-395 (Put Support). ? Stop-Loss: Above 412 (invalidates downside move). ? Options Strategy: * Buy PUTS 405/400 expiring 1-2 weeks out if breakdown confirms. * Debit Put Spread (Bearish 410P/400P for risk control). ? Bullish Scenario (Less Likely) ? Entry: If price reclaims 412, targeting 416-420. ? Target 1: 416 (first resistance). ? Target 2: 420 (Highest GEX resistance). ? Stop-Loss: Below 410 invalidates upside move. ? Options Strategy: * Sell 395/390 Put Credit Spread for a bounce play. ? My Thoughts & Suggestions * Main Bias: Bearish, unless 412+ is reclaimed. * Gamma Risks: Below 405, strong gamma exposure can push MSFT lower quickly. * Options Play: Puts look stronger based on GEX positioning & technical weakness. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
META has broken the uptrend on the regression break down-wards. I am considering this trades vs other in the market at this time.
RTY! has broker the consolidation and is now net-short on the regression break. I am considering this trade and the EA to use.
Long. TP-1 will hit forsure Use proper risk management Looks like good trade. Lets monitor. Use proper risk management. Disclaimer: only idea, not advice.
Stock market got hit on Friday and the regression break on BA might be worth follow. I am considering this trade.
'Ticker: MRNA Direction: Up Prognosis: Buy Calls (Author bought $40 and $41 calls expiring this week, considering rolling to later dates) Reasoning: New Covid-like virus discovered, rising avian flu concerns, large institutional buying, bullish technical indicators (RSI divergence, MACD turning up), high call option volume and open interest. Author acknowledges that a drop below $30 could invalidate the thesis. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. MRNA is volatile; know your risk tolerance. Bonus: Author also mentions potential plays on HD puts, LOW puts, and CLF calls.'
AUDCHF is now net-short. There is a negative roll to the short-side on this pairs. I will not take this trade.