Points of support on BTC do se see $80k?? BTC PULLING BACK HERE - DOES IT FIND SUPPORT AT THE 50 DAY AND HEAD NORTH OR DOES IT NEED TO PULL BACK FURTHER ? https://www.tradingview.com/x/Qrk1QPZQ/
?Stock Market Weekly Preview: Dec. 23rd NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM In this video, we’re talking about: ?Stock Market & Overall Forecast ?Lessons Learned this past week ?Technical Analysis: H5 & Williams CB ?Current Trades P.S. I'm getting coal for XMAS because I lied about it being a short video. ? Let’s dive into this Holliday Week! ?
Hello, BLACKBULL:BRENT is likely to experience more downside before we see any upward movement. If the price fails to settle above the 1M PP and maintain that level, new lows are expected. No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
Crypto Market Update: Key Developments and Analysis 1. Trump Nominates Stephen Miran as Chairman of Economic Advisory Council President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Stephen Miran as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, a position that will play a crucial role in shaping economic policy for the incoming administration. Miran, who previously served as a senior advisor to the Treasury Department in 2021, is well-known for his advocacy of deregulation to promote innovation across various sectors in the United States. In a statement on social media, Miran expressed his excitement about the nomination: "I am beyond honoured that President Trump has chosen me to lead his Council of Economic Advisers. I look forward to working to help implement the President's policy agenda to create a booming, noninflationary economy that brings prosperity to all Americans!" The crypto community has responded positively to Miran's nomination, largely due to his pro-innovation stance and openness towards digital assets and cryptocurrencies. His appointment is seen as a potential catalyst for more favourable regulatory environments for the crypto industry. 2. Bitcoin Social Sentiment Drops to Yearly Low, Signalling BTC Breakout Social sentiment around Bitcoin has reached its lowest point in 2024, suggesting a possible recovery above the $100,000 mark for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. As of December 22, Bitcoin's price is down over 10% from its all-time high of above $108,300 recorded on December 17, trading at around $97,150. This 10% correction has led to a significant drop in social media sentiment, with an average ratio of four to five positive versus negative Bitcoin-related comments. Market intelligence platform Sentiment highlighted this shift in a recent post, noting: “Vocal traders are now showing severe FUD, and that's good news for contrarians who know markets move in the opposite direction of retail's expectations.” Other crypto analysts are also predicting an end to Bitcoin’s current correction below $100,000. Notably, Bitcoin’s daily chart showed three consecutive red candles for the first time since early November, a period that coincided with Donald Trump's US election victory. This historical pattern has led some to speculate that Bitcoin may soon experience a bullish reversal. 3. Interpol Issues "Red Notice" for Hex Founder Richard Heart The international law enforcement organization, Interpol, has issued a "Red Notice" for Richard Schueler, also known as Richard Heart, the founder of Hex. Schueler is wanted by Finnish authorities for allegedly committing tax fraud and assault. A Red Notice is a global request for law enforcement to locate and provisionally arrest a person, but it is not an international arrest warrant. Schueler is also listed on Europe’s most wanted fugitives list, where detailed allegations include physically assaulting a 16-year-old victim and committing tax evasion between June 2, 2020, and April 2, 2024. The issuance of the Red Notice comes just three months after a remand order was initially issued for Schueler on September 13, according to Finnish public broadcaster Yle. This development has sent shockwaves through the crypto community, as Schueler is a well-known figure in the space. These key developments in the crypto world highlight the dynamic nature of the market and the importance of staying informed. As the week progresses, traders and investors should closely monitor these stories and their potential impact on the broader financial landscape..
Detailed Breakdown and Technical Analysis of NVIDIA's (NVDA) Two-Year Outlook and Options Strategy I. Introduction: Welcome to NVIDIA's Final Destination NVIDIA’s journey through the stock market feels eerily similar to a thriller like Final Destination. The twists and turns keep you on edge, the stakes couldn’t be higher, and just when you think you’ve figured it all out, the plot thickens. The question is: are we hurtling toward a safe landing or another sharp drop? With a head-and-shoulders pattern looming and Fibonacci levels adding their own cryptic clues, it’s time to map out the next two years. This isn’t just a ride—it’s a calculated journey through chaos and opportunity. ________________________________________ II. Fundamental Analysis 1. Market Position and Growth Catalysts NVIDIA (NVDA) has solidified its position as a leader in GPU and AI computing, supported by its dominant share in the gaming, data center, and automotive sectors. Its continued focus on AI hardware and software frameworks, like CUDA, provides a competitive moat. With AI-driven workloads expected to grow exponentially, NVIDIA remains a key beneficiary of this secular trend. However, NVDA faces potential headwinds from: • Geopolitical risks: Restrictions on chip exports to China could affect revenues. • Macroeconomic factors: High-interest rates and economic slowdowns may pressure growth-oriented tech stocks. • Valuation concerns: Elevated price-to-earnings ratios leave the stock vulnerable to corrections during downturns. 2. Historical Performance NVDA has demonstrated robust performance in the last decade, experiencing exponential growth in revenue and market capitalization. While this growth has been exceptional, recent price action suggests overextension, leading to the potential formation of a multi-year correction and consolidation before resuming upward momentum. ________________________________________ III. Technical Analysis 1. Current Structure • Head and Shoulders Pattern: A classic bearish reversal pattern is forming, with the left shoulder and head completed. The right shoulder is expected to form near the $134.70 resistance zone. • Fibonacci Retracement: The 0.618 retracement at ~$118 and 0.786 at ~$102 provide key support levels for potential pullbacks. • Momentum Indicators: - MACD: Bearish divergence indicates waning bullish momentum. - Stochastic RSI: Overbought conditions suggest a correction is imminent. 2. Key Levels and Projections • Resistance Levels: $134.70, $149.37. • Support Levels: $118.32 (0.618 Fib), $102.86 (0.786 Fib), $95.65 (potential long-term bottom). • Recovery Path: Post-correction, NVDA could retest $149+ by late 2025, driven by cyclical recovery and improved fundamentals. ________________________________________ IV. Options Strategy: Leveraging Key Zones and Timelines 1. Core Thesis The projected pullback offers a strategic opportunity to capitalize on NVDA’s volatility using options. By employing 45-day (DTE) short put spreads at key support levels, we can: • Generate consistent income from elevated implied volatility (IV). • Define risk with limited downside exposure. Additionally, using long-term hedges (LEAPS) can offset potential losses, ensuring portfolio resilience during downturns. 2. Strategy Design (Phase 1) a. 45D Short Put Spreads • Objective: Capture premium during consolidation near support zones. • Execution: - Sell a short put at a support level (e.g., $118). - Buy a protective put 5-10 points lower (e.g., $113) to limit risk. • Example: - Sell $118 put, buy $113 put for a net credit of $1.50. - Max profit: $150 per contract. - Max loss: $350 per contract. - Breakeven: $116.50. • Timeline: Enter spreads every 45D, adjusting strikes based on price action and IV. b. Long-Term Hedge Using LEAPS • Objective: Hedge downside risk during significant corrections. • Execution: - Buy a deep ITM long put with 12-18 months DTE at $149 (current resistance). - Use proceeds from short put spreads to offset the cost of the hedge. • Rationale: Protects against deep corrections while maintaining exposure to long-term recovery. 3. Combining Strategies • During consolidations, sell short put spreads at $118 and $102. • Maintain a LEAPS hedge at $149 to offset potential losses if the pattern fails and the price breaks lower. • Adjust strikes dynamically based on the formation of the right shoulder and subsequent price action. ________________________________________ V. Phases of Execution Phase 2: Bearish Continuation to End of February 1. LEAP Exit: - Exit the LEAP put at the end of February if NVDA drops below $102. - Capture maximum intrinsic value before significant time decay impacts the LEAP. 2. Second 45DTE Put Spread Exit: - Exit the 45DTE short put spread around 21DTE (mid-February). - This is consistent with best practices to avoid gamma risk and maximize theta decay gains. Phase 3: Test at $95.65 1. Observe the Price Action: - If NVDA tests $95.65: - Confirm support and momentum before acting. - Look for signs of stabilization or a breakdown below $95. 2. Sell a Cash-Secured Put Below $95: - Choose a strike below $95 (e.g., $90 or $85) to give some breathing room. - Plan an exit near $135 test if NVDA rebounds, allowing you to capture premium. Phase 4: Transition Back to Short Put Spreads 1. After $135 Test: - If NVDA reaches $135, transition back to 45D short put spreads. - Focus on strikes below the established support levels at $102 or $118 to maintain a high probability of success. 2. Reestablish LEAP Put: - Initiate a new LEAP put with a strike above the $60 target (e.g., $75–$85). - Aim for September as the reversal point for the long-term bearish trend. Phase 5: Targeting September Reversal 1. Monitor for $60 Reversal: - Expect NVDA to reach $60 by September based on your thesis and technical analysis. - Exit the LEAP put as NVDA approaches $60 or shows reversal signs. 2. Reassess Market Conditions: - At this stage, reevaluate NVDA’s fundamentals, market conditions, and technical indicators. - Consider transitioning to bullish strategies if the broader market outlook aligns. ________________________________________ VI. Risk Management 1. Defined Risk: Short put spreads limit downside exposure to predefined levels, making the strategy suitable for high-volatility environments. 2. Capital Allocation: - Allocate no more than 5% of the portfolio to short put spreads per expiration cycle. - Use 2-3% for the LEAPS hedge. 3. Adjustment Plan: - Roll short puts if NVDA approaches the strike, maintaining a minimum credit. - Exit LEAPS hedge if NVDA stabilizes above $149. 4. Macro Monitoring: Regularly assess market conditions and adjust timelines and strikes accordingly. ________________________________________ VII. Conclusion: The Final Destination for NVDA NVIDIA’s trajectory over the next two years mirrors a thriller like Final Destination. While we can map out the twists and turns with technical analysis and strategic foresight, the market ultimately has its own plans. Our tools—like Fibonacci retracements, options strategies, and risk management frameworks—act as a way to anticipate the curves ahead, but they don’t guarantee a safe landing. The real challenge lies in adapting to the unknowns, balancing preparation with flexibility. Whether NVDA’s final destination is a triumphant recovery or a deeper pullback, this approach equips us to navigate the ride with confidence, knowing we’ve done everything to prepare for whatever fate may unfold. ________________________________________ Footnote This analysis represents a trading thesis based on technical and fundamental insights. It is not intended to be acted upon blindly or as financial advice. Trading involves risk, and the success or failure of the outlined strategies cannot be guaranteed. The author assumes no responsibility for any actions taken based on this thesis. Always consult a financial professional before implementing any investment strategy.
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: I know it’s an ugly chart, bear with me. Gold spent 2020 - 2024 inside a 570 point range and started the recent bull trend with the breakout in 2024-03. Since then Gold has made 30%, which is more than unusual to say the least. From 2018 to 2020 it made 50% but only because it lost 36% from 2011 to 2018. Market is much less obvious on higher time frames than I’d like. Both sides have reasonable arguments going for them. For bulls it’s that the bull trend is ongoing while bears could see the leg down from 2826 down to 2566 as the first in the new bear trend. Bulls would like a third leg up which could lead to 3000. Both are valid and that is why it’s most likely that the market will move sideways rather than trend big time to either direction. My favorite path forward would be a trend down to 2300 and then sideways inside a big range 2300 - 2600. current market cycle: Bull trend is ongoing until bears can close consecutive weekly bars below the 20ema, which is at 2640 right now. Could the new bear trend have started with W1 from 2826 down to 2566? Yes. Both can be valid at the same time. key levels for 2025: 2500 - 3000 (if 2500 breaks, 2300 would be the next big target below) bull case: Bulls want a W5 up to 3000. Easy as pie is that read and seeing it on the chart. Hard part, as always, is giving probabilities to it and as of now, I won’t make any. The market is in balance around 2650 and I would need prices above 2760 or below 2560 to have a stronger opinion about it. That’s short but all I have to write about it for now. Can’t make stuff up where there is none. Invalidation is below 2500. bear case: Bears see the move down from the ath as a W1 of the new bear trend which could lead down to my biggest bear goal for 2025 at 2200ish. Here are the big bear targets in order. First is the 50% retracement of the recent bull trend at 2500. It’s also the breakout price from the W1 high and the old ath from 2011-08. Second bigger target would be 2300 which is a measured move down from the bearish W1 from the ath, the 2023-05 high (breakout-retest) and it would close the big bull gap the market left behind. Third and final target, which is the most unreasonable one for now, is 2200 which is the 50% retracement from the whole bull trend since 2018. Invalidation is above 3050. short term: Neutral. Lower highs and higher lows. Market is in a triangle again and in balance around 2650. medium-long term: Will only give one above 2760 or below 2560. current swing trade: None
Hello, FX:GER30 may experience further downside, potentially retesting the 1M pivot point if the 1D pivot point continues to act as resistance. However, if the 1D pivot point holds as support, an upward move could be on the horizon. No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
Last week was a big week for GBP with interest rate freezing at 4.75%, although 3 members voted to reduce the rate instead of the forecast 1, core inflation has slowed up but still remains too high for now. The labour market proved to be balanced. UK's major issue still lingering is the governments autumn budget which has a lot of data to collect before we see the measure of their changes. Japan is showing high interest rates relative to the norm, but also boasts high economic growth with the annoyance of high labour costs. The move last week after the interest rate announcement will be completely retraced before the next move up. Another factor is the DXY which relative to the JPY moves inversely. DXY since the US election has been bullish and I can see it continuing, last week we saw a correction due to PCE data and now we have a free rein. GBPJPY long with targets of 199, 201, 204 support right now is 196.6, a move direct from here would be extremely bullish and a quick move back to 198-199. If we move lower than 196 invalidates my thesis. Idea is based around DOL at 199, trend continuation with fib 1.618 and FVG at 201. Support was prior news resistance level. This is not financial advice for anyone, its solely my take on predicting the next move for GBPJPY. happy holidays
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: For the sp500 the start of the bull trend is a bit less clear as for dax. My take is that it started with the 2023-10 low and before that was still the big trading range the main pattern. Does it matter if my wave thesis is off for W1 or where W4 ended? I don’t think it does. My targets (obvious magnets) would still be the same. We have a bull trend that went up a pretty perfect measured move from the Covid low to the 2023-10 low. This will be my biggest target for 2025. We then have a perfect magnet down to the previous ath from 2022-01 at 5300, which is the 50% retracement of the bull trend from 2023-10 to the ath. 5300 will be the first and most important target for the bears in the medium-term. Depending on how we get there, we can estimate on if and how we could get down to 4400. As of now, it is unlikely that we will see 4400 in 2025. Something bigger has to happen and markets need to change drastically. A liquidity event would certainly help. current market cycle: Bull trend from 2023-10 has likely ended already and we are transitioning into a trading range or new bear trend. By the end of January we will know for sure what it will be. key levels for 2025: 5000 - 6200 bull case: Since the bigger western indexes are highly correlated, many arguments for them are the same. Past two years gave the bulls 55+% in gains while the biggest pull-back was 10% in 2024-08. The bulls have made money buying the weekly 20ema for a year and they don’t want to stop because this time it surely is different and valuations are boomer metrics for poor people who did not get in on the latest fartcoin pump. I don’t have anything more to say in this section. Invalidation is below 4400. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 4000 again. bear case: Long ongoing climactic bull trend and every new high got smaller. Bears know the bulls have to take profit at some point, especially after a prolonged period without pull-backs. Once the profit taking get’s going, this will accelerate downwards to find bigger support. The first target for the bears is a daily close below 5900 and then a test of the nearest bull trend line around 5800. We can only expect more sideways once we get there. When bears finally break it, 5500 is the next obvious magnet and we then have only one more big bull trend line left, which is the one from the Covid lows. As mentioned above, the 50% retracement for this trend is as perfect as it get’s the previous ath near 5300 and for now this will be my biggest target to hit in 2025. Again, depending on how we get there, we can either estimate lower targets or expect the market to move sideways in a bigger range. Invalidation is above 6300. short term: Same argument for year end rally as for dax. Highest I can see this going for 6250 (give or take) and then we will test the first bull trend line around 5800 over the next weeks. 5500 in Q1 is my estimate as of now. medium-long term: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None but same argument as for dax. Short ETF until we hit 5300 is reasonable.
Good Evening and I hope you are well. dax xetra - outlook 2025 comment: We look at the chart from the beginning of the current bull trend in 2022-10. Dax has gained 71% while German GDP is now negative for two consecutive years. The bull trend has 3 clear and big legs up. The upper and lower trend lines were respected and we have seen an acceleration upwards in the last leg. This is not the start of a new and stronger one but the climactic ending which traps the weak & late traders. These are the people who started gambling with Bitcoin as it hit 100k because they wanted some of that fairy dust. A healthy correction would be around 20% which is very close to the 50% retracement of this whole trend, the 2023-11 previous ath and the big bull trend line from the Covid lows. More than enough magnets to test down to that price around 16000. How will we get there? Absolutely no idea and all of my drawings with a potential wave series, are just rough guesses how I think it could potentially play out. Sometimes those are accurate and other times they are way off. It’s a good habit of anticipating what markets could do and take the trade if they do it. Final thoughts. Buying the dax above 19000 hoping for a new and stronger trend upwards because surely this time it’s different, is as unwise as can be if you want to invest your money. Meaning buying and holding or trading on a daily/weekly chart. The odds of this breaking above two major trend lines while we already made 70%+ without any meaningful correction, are so slim that the only reason your are doing it is because of FOMO. current market cycle: Bull trend of the past two years has likely ended and new lows below 18780 will be the confirmation. key levels for 2025: 16000 - 20000 (decent chance we will see 20000 only in the first couple of weeks and then only in a couple of months or years again) bull case: 2 years, 70%+. What more can you dream of? No matter how you draw your technicals on the chart, you can only see this as bullish, if you think we can break strongly above the two upper trend lines and go for 25000 or more. That is trading on hope and nothing else. If you have bought any dip the past two years you were never wrong and that is why we have so many articles about “this time it’s different”. In a bull trend, everyone is a genius. I can not come up with any legitimate reason why this should go meaningful above 20600. The absolute best I can do for this section is that we will likely see a lot of sideways price action at the big magnets. 19000 will be the first over the next days/weeks and at this point, we can’t expect the bulls to just give and let the market melt through those prices. BTFD mentality has been profitable and it will take a while or a huge drop, before it ends and we shift to STR (sell the rips). Invalidation is below 14600. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 12000 again. bear case: Peak bullish sentiment and option positions over the past weeks can only go on for so long before the market reverses big time. It’s perhaps because there is literally no one left to buy because everyone and their dog went max long. The chart is clear and the downside risks are much greater than any coke-induced perma-bull argument on why the markets will break higher another 10-20%. Bears short term targets are the weekly 20ema near the small bull trend line around 19000. There we can probably expect more sideways movement before we get another impulse down to the huge support around 17700. My chart is a best guess about price but the timing could be way off. My biggest target for 2025 is the 2011-11 previous ath 16290, which is very close to the 50% retracement of this bull trend. There is also the big bull trend line from the Covid low and I expect this to be tested in Q1 or Q2 2025. Invalidation is above 20700. short term: The year end rally could give us another new ath or lower high. It does not matter because the upside will probably be very limited. My highest price is 20700 give or take. I fully expect 19000 to be hit over the next 2-6 weeks. medium-long term: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: None but I think any short ETF, levered or not, is reasonable. Short term is 19000 and medium term (2-5 months) is 17000-18000.