Price traded into a 1 hour fair value gap, all the while taking out a range high created by the 1H 3AM Candle, out of my required purge key time. Might be a valid trade but it doesn't tick all the boxes for entry, sitting this one out even though it might be play out as anticipated, let's see what happens, in a nutshell, I'm bearish.
The Japanese Yen maintains its strength in relation to the recovering US Dollar. However, recent improvements in global risk sentiment are beginning to weaken the JPY's appeal as a safe-haven currency. At this point, the Yen is positioned within a significant supply zone, where we are closely monitoring for potential reversal opportunities. According to the latest COT report, retailers are predominantly holding long positions, which adds an interesting dynamic to the current market environment. As we evaluate the situation, our focus is on the possibility of a reversal, especially as the US Dollar shows signs of regaining momentum. This scenario could lead to notable shifts in currency dynamics, and we are keen to see how these factors will unfold in the near term. ✅ Please share your thoughts about 6J1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
? Why This Matters Right Now USD/JPY has been tightly range-bound for the past 7 sessions, hugging the underside of 154.50, a historically significant resistance level. With U.S. inflation coming in hotter than expected and the Bank of Japan stepping back from policy tightening, this tug-of-war has compressed price action into a tight coil. A volatility eruption is right around the corner. ? Breakdown of the Strategy This is a volatility compression breakout setup based on the logic that low volatility precedes expansion. The ingredients: Bollinger Bands (20, 2) for detecting squeeze zones ADX (14) under 15 to confirm low trend strength Price range compressing within 0.5% Entry Logic: ? Long: Close above upper Bollinger Band + ADX > 20 ? Short: Close below lower Bollinger Band + ADX > 20 Stops & Targets: Stop Loss: Just inside the opposite Bollinger Band Take Profit: 2× ATR(14) ? Why This Works in Today’s Market The policy divergence between the U.S. and Japan is creating a classic fundamental standoff, but the price can't stay neutral for long. Volatility is compressed to its limits. When the breakout comes, it's likely to run fast and clean in the direction of the imbalance. ? Automate It with PineScriptAI With PineScriptAI, you can instantly: Detect when Bollinger Band width narrows Monitor ADX thresholds Set up conditional breakout logic with smart alerts and backtests Create a dual-trigger script that catches either direction — no need to guess the breakout side. ⚡ From Trend to Code — Instantly This isn’t just a chart pattern — it’s a recurring market phenomenon. With PineScriptAI, you can adapt this same logic to GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, or even gold compressions with zero manual tweaking. ? Final Insight FX:USDJPY When price coils, energy builds. Don’t just watch it break — code it, trade it, and scale it across markets with PineScriptAI.
Key Supporting Arguments Amidst the unpredictability of Donald Trump's tariff policies, Netflix might serve as a defensive play. Positive consumer sentiment, a surge in subscriber growth, and strategic hikes in subscription prices are poised to power robust results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025. Investment Thesis Netflix (NFLX) is a global leader in video streaming, offering a vast library of original and licensed content to subscribers worldwide. With over 95% of its revenue stream coming from subscriptions, the company secures a solid foundation against the whims of market volatility. NFLX’s nascent foray into advertising contributes a mere 3% to its revenue, ensuring that any tremors in the macroeconomic climate have a minimal ripple effect. Netflix's business model, anchored in subscription revenue and expansive geographic diversification, shields the company from the whims of unpredictable tariff policies. Amidst the relentless cycle of tariffs being slapped on and lifted from a variety of products and the growing tide of protectionism, streaming platforms such as Netflix, which thrive on subscription-based models, emerge as devensive assets. This is largely because they steer clear of the tumultuous world of physical goods production, importation, and exportation. The sustainability of the company’s streaming empire is anchored in its formidable user engagement—clocking in at around 2 hours per household daily—paired with historically low subscriber churn and entertainment value that punches well above its price tag. These elements collectively mitigate NFLX’s risk profile in the face of a potential recession. While advertising revenue may take a hit if trade tensions intensify and trigger an economic downturn, it is worth noting that ads only contribute to about 3% of Netflix's total revenue. Despite its worldwide footprint, the company still rakes in a hefty slice of its revenue—around 40-45%—from the U.S. market, offering a protective buffer against possible international sanctions or restrictions. Meanwhile, its strategic geographic diversification across Europe, Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East not only mitigates risks but also fortifies the sustainability of its business model. Netflix is poised to potentially exceed expectations in its Q1 2025 earnings report. In Q4 2024, the company shattered expectations by pulling in a recordbreaking 19 million new users, a surge we anticipate will roll into 2025, powered by its rich and diverse content lineup. By the year's end, Netflix strategically hiked prices in the U.S. and UK, a move poised to bolster its Q1 2025 revenue. With a bold target of 29% growth for 2025, the company is banking on buoyant consumer spending and these subscription price upticks to hit the mark. Netflix projects a free cash flow of no less than $8 billion, creating a strategic opportunity for potential share buybacks. Our target price for NFLX over the next two months is pegged at $1,080, paired with a "Buy" recommendation. We suggest setting a stop-loss at $880.
I Created This XAUUSD Chart Analysis In 30-M Tf Entry: BUY from 3315 Support zone : 3312 Target Will Be : 3355 OANDA:XAUUSD made Falling wedge Pattern, It went to Uptrend, Let me know your thoughts in comments section
This post is based on my learnings from #ICT Quarterly Shift Analysis teachings. ---------------------------------------------- Previous Analysis: In September 2024, I published my quarterly shift analysis for #Gold. Back then, I estimated a shift in the market structure for Gold on or around the US Presidential Election date. It happened exactly as outlined. I estimated Gold would make a bearish move or create a large range; it indeed created a large range and has been moving within the range since then. The top of the range is 2790.10, and the bottom of the range is 2536.60. Then I posted a new Quarterly Shift Analysis on 13 Jan 2025. I specified the time window for a shift in the market structure to happen, and price indeed delivered as outlined. I said that between the 20th and 31st of January, Gold would determine its new direction. On 30 Jan 2025, Gold created a new all-time high and closed a strong daily candle above the range described before. Gold hit and exceeded all the targets outlined in my analysis. ------------------------------------------------------- New Quarterly Shift Analysis: As we get closer to the end of April, Gold seems to be in a rush to make new highs and hit new targets. I believe that from the end of April to the 2nd of May 2025, Gold can hit $3411 and possibly $3498 or $3500. If it's too aggressive, $3582 can also be reached. Between 30 April and 02 May (NFP Announcement Date), Gold should make a new quarterly shift. The possible scenarios are as follows: 1. Continuation: Gold could make a retracement and then continue the current uptrend for the next 3–4 months. The retracement could go as deep as 3180, 3068 and 2982. The uptrend targets will be the targets mentioned above plus 3618 and 3738. 2. Enter a long-term range (My guess is this is the most likely scenario): Gold could enter a new long-term range for the next 3–4 months. The bottom of the range will be 2958, and the top of the range will be the highest high created by Gold by or before 30 April to 2nd of May. If this scenario happens, it is a good chance to look for sell opportunities near or within the top 25% level of the range and look for buy opportunities near or within the bottom 25% level of the range. 3. Bearish Move: If Gold closes a strong daily candle below 2958, then for the next 3–4 months, it could go lower towards 2832, 2790, 2728, and 2662. This scenario might not be highly likely, but in the event if it happens, it's a wonderful opportunity for long-term Gold investors to buy and hold Gold. ----------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: This is not a signal, just an analysis for your consideration and benefit. Please combine it with your own analysis.
FX:GBPCAD market is pulling back after making higher highs. On the current timeframe the market is bullish as well as on the daily timeframe. The price is heading toward the psychological level at 1.83000 and possibly lower border of the upward channel. If the price retests the support level and Tuesday's low, this would be the best zone to consider to go long. I think the market will continue pushing to higher levels since the price cleared the area above the previous week's high. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad ??
Solana is starting to look like building bullish momentum. Bullish signs: Daily: The price broke out of a prolonged descending parallel channel, retested the top trendline of the channel and started to move up. The price broke and closed above EMA21 (first hurdle of many!) and has been above it for several days. The price is above the major support zone around 117. RSI and MACD are both still in the bear zone, however, they are clearly pointing up and about to enter the bull zone. 4H: MACD and RSI are both in the bull zone. The price is above EMA 22.EMA 21 is above EMA55. EMA 200 is traveling horizontally across the recent price range, but the latest candle was strongly bullish and closed above all EMAs. While EMA200 is horizontally moving, the price will probably oscillate in the range bound. But once EMAs line up for the bullish set up (EMA21 > 55> 22) in 4H, I will consider open a long position based on the 4H chart.
SMC Trading point update updated chart provides a more refined bearish outlook for EUR/USD. Here's the idea behind this analysis: --- Market Structure Overview: Resistance Level: ~1.14292 Mid Support Zone: ~1.13500 Major Support (Target Point): ~1.12658 Current Price: 1.13787 --- Indicators: EMA 200 (1.12174): Price is above the 200 EMA, indicating an overall bullish bias, but that may be weakening. RSI (14): Around 54.37, slightly bullish but neutral—no strong momentum. --- Trading Idea: 1. Short-Term Bullish Move: Price is expected to rise to test the resistance level around 1.14292. 2. Bearish Reversal at Resistance: From there, a rejection is anticipated, leading to a drop back to the mid support (~1.13500). 3. Break Below Mid Support: If the price fails to hold the mid support zone, a breakdown is likely to continue toward the target point at 1.12658, which aligns with the previous big support level. Mr SMC Trading point --- Strategy Suggestion: Sell Setup 1: At resistance (~1.14292), with confirmation like bearish candles or divergence on RSI. Sell Setup 2: On breakdown and retest of the 1.13500 support zone. Take Profit: Target at 1.12658. Stop Loss: Above 1.14300 or above the most recent swing high. --- Pales support boost ? analysis follow)
Tao is looking good here, has taken both side liquidity and now internal FVG liquidity left, where I am thinking price can grab liquidity and then up.