1. Market Structure & Price Action (1H Chart) * Trend: AMZN is currently in a short-term bearish trend after rejecting from the $207 supply zone. * CHoCH (Change of Character): The recent CHoCH around ~$198 confirms bearish control. * Price Range: Current price is consolidating in the $191–193 zone, a potential SMC Reversal Block. * Support Zone: $189–190 (FVG + previous demand and lowest Bid/Ask zone). * Resistance: $198.76 (prior CHoCH zone), then $202.5–207.5. 2. Indicators * MACD: Histogram flipping bullish with MACD line above the signal line — signaling early momentum. * Stoch RSI: Moving up from oversold, crossing bullish — momentum is building. 3. Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Highlights * Reversal Zone (marked): Price has entered a key bullish mitigation zone where demand previously absorbed supply. * Internal Trendline Break: If price breaks above $195, it could trigger a BOS (Break of Structure) and change direction. * Liquidity Grab: Previous lows at ~$189 may have been swept to trap shorts. 4. Options Flow & GEX Insights https://www.tradingview.com/x/BlKGFcOS/ * GEX Levels: * Highest Positive GEX/Call Resistance: $207.04 * Major GEX Walls: $202.5, $205 * Strong PUT Wall: $185 (Highest negative NETGEX / Support) * IV & Positioning: * IVR: 56.6 * IVx Avg: 46 * Put%: 2.1% — ? Very low put hedging pressure, bullish * GEX Color: ??? (Bearish zone but near bottom range) 5. Trade Scenarios ? Bullish Setup * Entry: $192.5–193 (retest of reversal zone) * Target 1: $198.76 (gap fill + CHoCH) * Target 2: $202.5–205 (mid gamma wall) * Stop Loss: Below $189 ? Bearish Setup * Entry: If rejection below $195 with weak volume * Target 1: $189.3 * Target 2: $185 (GEX PUT support) * Stop Loss: Close above $198.76 6. Sentiment & Bias * Bias: Cautiously Bullish * Price is near exhaustion zone with momentum starting to flip. * Watch closely for confirmation above $195 for long setups. * Failure to hold $189 may break structure downward. Conclusion AMZN is sitting in a key inflection zone where Smart Money may step in. Momentum and indicators are turning up, but macro resistance at $198–202 must be cleared. Use tight risk management and let confirmation guide your trade. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
Lessons learned from my mistakes. Rule 1: Dont lose money. Rule 2: Never forget rule 1. Warren Buffett. Rule 3: The market is always right. Rule 4: The trend is your friend. Rule 5: Dont fight the trend. Rule 6: Figure out your method of trading and stick with it. Rule 7: Ignore the noise. Ignore the news. Ignore the narrative. The charts are EVERYTHING! Rule 8: Understand pattern recognition, have factors, find support and resistance. Rule 9: Dont be fooled by lies and deception. Rule 10: Never forget Rule #1 :)
On Sunday's i break down the DXY and the rest of the market giving a forward look and expectation of what we can expect or look for upcoming. I breakdown US30, Nas100, Gold, Oil, BTC and some forex pairs. Possibly a big week ahead with Tariffs coming out April 2nd and NFP on Friday. Looking forward to an exciting volatile week.
EURUSD has healthy price action with the MTF switching to bullish, once MTF aligns with the daily, we're definitely good to go on longs. For now waiting for price action to show us that it wants to move higher. Major news: NFP Friday Thanks for coming, goodluck this week with your trades!
⚡Market Structure & Price Action: TSLA has shown a breakdown from its recent consolidation following a Break of Structure (BOS) and two Change of Character (CHoCH) signals. Price is now compressing downward in a falling wedge toward a key support zone around $260, suggesting a potential reversal or continuation setup. * Bearish order block from the $290–$300 zone remains unchallenged. * Current price action is hovering right at a support level with small-bodied candles, indicating indecision. GEX & Options Flow Insights: https://www.tradingview.com/x/1OOYZDjq/ * IVR: 37.8 * IVx avg: 22.6 * Put Positioning: 71% (very defensive positioning by institutions) * GEX: ??? (Strong bearish gamma exposure) ? Highest negative GEX zone and Put support are stacking around $554–$550, acting as a gamma magnet and potential short-term floor if selling pressure accelerates. Key Levels to Watch: * Support Zones: * $260.01 (current bid zone) * $249.89 * $230 (lower wedge support) * Resistance Zones: * $275 (gap fill resistance) * $291.83 (strong supply + BOS origin) * $304.50 (major swing resistance) Indicator Insights: * MACD: Bullish crossover forming but lacking strong momentum * Stoch RSI: Oversold territory, curling upward, hinting a potential short-term bounce * Volume: Increasing on red candles, showing heavy sell pressure dominance recently Scenarios: ? Bullish Play: * Entry: Above $264.50 * Target 1: $275 * Target 2: $291 * Stop-loss: Below $255 Confirmation needed via bullish CHoCH and break above descending wedge. ? Bearish Play: * Entry: Below $258 breakdown of wedge * Target 1: $249 * Target 2: $230 * Stop-loss: Above $267 Watch for continuation if macro weakness persists and options flow remains bearish. GEX Outlook Summary: TSLA is entering a low-liquidity pocket with strong bearish gamma exposure. High IVR and heavy put concentration suggest institutional hedging, increasing the chance of a further breakdown unless buyers show up at key reversal zones. Conclusion: TSLA is at a make-or-break zone. If bulls can reclaim $265+, we may see a relief bounce. However, bearish options pressure and gamma positioning suggest the path of least resistance could still be down, especially toward $250. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk wisely.
Weekly analysis this week, price has been congesting and tightening the last 2 weeks, expecting hopefully a good move this week to breakout of consolidation. Starting the week with a bearish bias. Major News: NFP Friday Thanks for stopping by, have a great trading week!
Time for Gold to rest pause consolidate after climbing 21.37%. What's with this number? Even the best can't climb Mt Everest in one go. They must rest at every base camp, so must gold
NYSE:JPM Even JP Morgan Chase is showing a potential head and shoulders. It is still early but still...?
some project i'm working on. # Analysis of the S&P 500 Trading Dashboard Data I'll explain the key data elements used in this technical analysis dashboard and how they contribute to the trading conclusions. ## Key Price Levels and Their Significance The dashboard identifies several critical price levels for the S&P 500: - **Max Pain ($5,785)**: This represents the price level where options writers would experience the least financial pain (i.e., where the fewest options contracts would be in-the-money). The distance from the current price ($5,557.41) to max pain suggests significant upside resistance. - **Resistance Levels ($5,700 and $5,650)**: These represent areas where selling pressure is expected to increase. The $5,700 level is backed by data showing 13,877 call option contracts at this strike, creating a "wall" of resistance. - **Short Entry Zone ($5,595)**: This level was previously support that has been broken, making it a high-probability entry zone for short positions following the principle that broken support becomes resistance. - **Battle Zone ($5,550)**: An area with heavy options activity on both sides (puts and calls), indicating potential price volatility and uncertainty. - **Critical Support ($5,500)**: A psychologically important round number that also represents a significant technical level. - **Target Levels ($5,450 and $5,400)**: Projected price targets for short positions based on previous support levels and technical measurements. ## Options Market Data Two key options metrics are used to inform the analysis: 1. **Put/Call Ratio (1.80)**: This is significantly elevated above the typical range of 0.7-1.2, indicating: - Unusually bearish sentiment - Hedging activity by institutional investors - Potential for a contrarian bounce if it exceeds 2.0 The high ratio suggests market participants are purchasing put options for downside protection at an elevated rate compared to call options, confirming bearish positioning. 2. **Gamma Exposure (-$17.37 Billion)**: This negative value indicates: - Market makers are net short gamma - They must sell more futures as prices fall to maintain delta hedges - This creates a self-reinforcing downward spiral effect Gamma exposure represents the rate of change in delta (directional exposure) for options market makers. The large negative value suggests that downward price movement will accelerate as market makers must sell more futures to remain hedged, creating a "cascade effect" amplifying price movement. ## Technical Indicators and Their Interpretation The dashboard incorporates several technical analysis components: ### Price Action & Moving Averages The analysis indicates price is trading below all major moving averages (20/50/100/200 EMAs), a classic sign of bearish momentum across timeframes. When price trades below all these moving averages in sequence, it creates what traders call "bearish alignment," a strong confirmation of downtrend. ### Momentum Indicators - **RSI (Below 30)**: Indicates oversold conditions but in a strong downtrend, oversold conditions can persist. The analysis correctly warns against fighting the trend despite the oversold reading. - **MACD (Below signal line)**: Confirms negative momentum is in place, suggesting continued downward pressure. - **ACWF (Negative)**: A specialized momentum indicator showing continued bearish pressure. ### Volume Analysis - **On-Balance Volume (Declining)**: Indicates more volume on down days than up days, suggesting distribution (selling pressure). - **Volume on Down Bars (Increasing)**: Higher volume on declining price moves is a classic sign of seller control and distribution. ### Chart Patterns - **Head & Shoulders Pattern (Completed)**: A reversal pattern that typically projects further downside after completion. - **Elliott Wave Count (Wave 3)**: Wave 3 is typically the strongest and longest wave in Elliott Wave theory, suggesting significant continuation of the downtrend. ## Volatility Assessment The ATR (Average True Range) values of 9.18-98.75 indicate elevated and increasing volatility, which informs the risk management recommendations: - Reduce position size - Use wider stop losses - Expect larger price swings This is prudent risk management in high-volatility environments, as normal position sizing could lead to premature stopouts due to wider price swings. ## Trading Recommendation Logic The primary strategy (65% probability) of continued downside is based on the confluence of: 1. Bearish technical indicators across multiple timeframes 2. Negative gamma exposure creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral 3. Broken support levels and completed bearish chart patterns 4. Wave 3 Elliott Wave structure which typically has the strongest momentum The strategy recommends: - Entry at $5,590-5,600 (former support, now resistance) - Stop loss above $5,625 (limiting risk to approximately 30 points) - Targets at key support levels: $5,500, $5,450, and $5,400 - Reduced position size due to high volatility The alternative strategy (35% probability) acknowledges the potential for a reversal at the $5,500 psychological support level, but only with confirmation signals like volume decline and stabilization patterns. ## Educational Elements The dashboard incorporates several educational elements: 1. **Elliott Wave Theory**: The identification of Wave 3 of a 5-wave downtrend sequence suggests the current move is likely the strongest part of the larger bearish structure. 2. **Options Market Mechanics**: Explanation of how negative gamma exposure creates a self-reinforcing price action effect as market makers hedge their positions. 3. **Technical Analysis Patterns**: Clear labeling of patterns like the Head & Shoulders and broken uptrend line, along with their implications. 4. **Risk Management**: Specific recommendations for position sizing and stop placement in a high-volatility environment. This analysis combines price action, options market data, technical indicators, volume analysis, and chart patterns to create a comprehensive trading approach with specific entry, exit, and risk management parameters.
Gold is at a significant cluster of fibs in the 3100 area. Good possibility of a pullback from here down to 2964. Best Guess for current wave's EndPoint is at $3100.76 =============================================== .