The price is moving in an upward movement; it has broken through the previous ATX and tested it. Growth potential to 3-3.5$
Opportunistic pick up to add to position. Market is reading too much in a CFO swap. Fundamentals + Business is turning around (toward profitability) - Unclear whether new management's plan will pan out due to a highly elastic customer (losing a significant amount of customers for marginal improvements in margin) + Last quarter weaker than usual due to a shift forward in the start of the school year (school spending started later) - will support earnings for next quarter + Cheap (esp as major input prices continue to shrink and get reflected in the income statement), expect to see margin improvement; but also a risk if we see barriers to trade go up next year from the president elect Technical + Finding support around 10.75-11.25 (great place to add) + Primary holder holding most the shares showing limited availability of liquidity + Feel of the chart suggests most existing holders are finding value - moves are exaggerated to the downside because of liquidity but are quickly getting picked up (see last dip on bad earnings); downside moves are look fast and exaggerated because any seller has to sweep through the market to source liquidity. Buyers respond in kind by offering liquidity (picking up shares via limit orders and gradually moving up). + Options are extremely rich so puts more pressure on the underlying shares to source liquidity (options too expensive to carry long or short). + Price is consolidating, resembles flag-esque pricing action; and very different than prior moves which saw upward thrusts before a move lower. Targeting: short term target 16 as the base case (top of flag) or highs 20s to reflect current fundamental value (potentially higher if margin returns and top line stabilizes).
The price broke through and tested the downward channel, growth potential to $1-1.25
Hello everyone, today I want to share a trading idea that recently triggered my short entry. The GBP/AUD pair is hovering near period highs not seen since 2020. I think in the short term we might witness some pullback. Let’s analyze the situation. MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS - Data The latest data reflects a marked improvement in the Australian labor market, with the unemployment rate beating expectations. A rise to 4.2% was forecasted, but the figure dropped to 3.9%. This comes after the RBA decided to keep the reference rate unchanged, adopting a dovish tone compared to recent statements. It remains to be seen if this data could shift the narrative once again. - Economic growth The positioning and momentum on the pound indicate confidence that the economy could grow by 2025 or that inflation will remain stickier than expected. This affects the BOE’s monetary policy decisions. Interest rates have risen more than in other economies and are now at their peaks. On the other hand, the BOE recently adopted a dovish tone, suggesting the possibility of four rate cuts in 2025. In a recent article, Goldman Sachs highlighted that the UK’s growth might underperform expectations. UK GDP is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2025, slower than the Bank of England's 1.5% projection and slightly below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 1.3%. The team predicts growth of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the last quarter of 2024, with a slowdown to around 0.25–0.30% quarterly for the remainder of the year. They also foresee inflationary pressures easing through 2025, paving the way for deeper rate cuts than currently priced in by the market. https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/uk-economic-growth-may-lag-expectations-in-2025 - Interest rates Interest rates in the UK have risen more than in other economies, reaching a peak of 4.6%, reflecting aggressive rate policies. Meanwhile, AUD/USD movements appear closely tied to Chinese rates, which are at historic lows, potentially priming for a rebound and, consequently, a recovery in the cross, due to potential stimulus measures for the Chinese economy. https://www.tradingview.com/x/S9oMHtx3/ POSITIONING - COT (Commitment of Traders) Let’s analyze the COT to check for extremes on either side. https://www.tradingster.com/cot/futures/fin/096742 . Long positioning on the pound is at its highest since 2018, while for the Australian dollar, we are in negative territory after a decline. Momentum does not favor either currency, as traders are offloading or increasing short positions. SEASONALITY We are entering a period of strong negative seasonality for the pound, which typically tends to decline from the first week of December until the end of the month. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS From a chart perspective, the pair has just broken a dynamic trendline support on the 4H chart after a strong rally to period highs. The RSI clearly shows overbought conditions with bearish divergence. Entry: Upon the break or retest of the trendline. Stop Loss: Above the volume area signaling the break. Take Profit: Near the volume area supporting the price. https://www.tradingview.com/x/God7Rlfw/ Thanks for your attention!
Interesting setup here. $200 is the target. $200c March 2025. Could see a run up into earnings JAN 28th. WSL
Key Observations: Downtrend and Fibonacci Retracement: The chart is in a clear downtrend, indicated by lower highs and lower lows. A Fibonacci retracement tool is applied to the recent downtrend. The price appears to have retraced to the 50% level (44,062.63) and faced resistance, failing to break above the 61.8% level (44,299.10). Bollinger Bands: The price is testing the lower Bollinger Band, which could indicate oversold conditions in the short term. A potential bounce back to the mean (middle Bollinger Band) could occur unless there’s continued bearish momentum. Key Levels: Support Level: Around the 0.382 Fibonacci level (43,828.18), which is acting as a current support. Resistance Zone: Between the 50% (44,062.63) and 61.8% (44,299.10) Fibonacci levels. The price is also far from the major resistance level at 44,460.85. RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI appears to be near the oversold region (below 30), suggesting a potential reversal or relief rally in the short term. MACD: The MACD histogram is showing bearish momentum, but the bars are becoming smaller, hinting at a possible loss of selling pressure. Possible Scenarios: Bullish Case (Relief Rally): If the price holds above the 0.382 Fibonacci support level (43,828.18), it could bounce back to retest the middle Bollinger Band and possibly the 44,062.63 level. A break above 44,062.63 could target the 61.8% level (44,299.10). Bearish Case (Continuation): If the price breaks below 43,828.18, further downside could target the next major support, likely below 43,700. The continuation of bearish momentum is supported by the MACD still being below the signal line. Recommendation: Short-Term Traders: Watch for a reaction at the current support level. If the RSI starts to rise and the price bounces off the Bollinger Band, a short-term buy may be possible. Trend Traders: Wait for confirmation of a break below the 0.382 level or a rejection at the 50% retracement to follow the downtrend. Risk Management: Use stop losses, especially near the Fibonacci levels, as they act as pivot zones. Do not risk more than 1% of your account per trade.
WLD appears to be brewing a strong impulse move. Let's take care of it =)
green: optimistic red: pessimistic yellow: inbetween
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