Die Zinsentscheidung der Fed wird umgesetzt und das Gold-Long-Short-Spiel konzentriert sich auf Powells Rede Die Federal Reserve beließ die Zinssätze wie geplant unverändert bei 4,25 % bis 4,50 %, und der Dot-Plot behielt seine Erwartungen für zwei Zinssenkungen im Jahr 2025 bei, überlagert mit dem Bilanzabbau- und Konjunkturplan vom 1. April, was einen gemäßigten Ton auslöste. Der Fokus des Marktes verlagerte sich schnell auf die Rede des Vorsitzenden der US-Notenbank Powell und das Statement of Economic Projections (SEP), deren Wortlaut direkt die Beurteilung des Marktes über handelspolitische Risiken und Wirtschaftsaussichten bestimmen wird. Wenn Powell die Notwendigkeit betont, die Zinssätze zu senken, um sich gegen externe Unsicherheiten abzusichern, könnte der US-Dollar wieder unter Druck geraten, was dazu führen würde, dass Gold den wichtigen Widerstand von 3.050 US-Dollar pro Unze durchbricht, was die Tür zu historischen Höchstständen öffnet; wenn seine Haltung hingegen restriktiv ist und die Widerstandsfähigkeit der Inflation oder der wirtschaftlichen Widerstandsfähigkeit betont, könnte dies die Erholung des US-Dollars verstärken und eine Korrektur der Goldpreise auf die erste Unterstützungslinie von 3.000 auslösen. Ratschläge zur goldenen Strategie: Kurzfristig herrscht ein Tauziehen zwischen Politik und Technologie. Es wird den Bullen empfohlen, vorsichtig nach oben über 3050 zu streben und dem Long-Kurs Vorrang einzuräumen, wenn der Kurs auf etwa 3010-3015 zurückfällt, und Short-Positionen bei etwa 3047-3050 einzugehen, mit dem Ziel 3015.
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The bullish trend remains intact, with swing structure bullish across all key timeframes: ✅ Daily – Higher lows holding strong ✅ 4H, 1H, 15M – Structure remains bullish We’ll be watching how price develops overnight. Currently looking for longs on Thursday. Let’s see what prints. ??
The cycle has formed an absolute divergence at a high level, and a powerful squat may appear at any time. The trend support of the daily cycle has two points of 3000 and 2955. It seems that the price span is relatively large, but it is easy to fall. The support point of the cycle is around 3015, so the key point in the short term is 3015. Once it breaks, it will no longer be so strong, and it will most likely go directly to 3000.
My overall thesis is we are in the very early stages of a multi-year decline ultimately with the S&P 500 below 3500. I have been wrong many times before so I will just take this thing in stages and see if it plays out. After this massive decline, we should be in for a great market rally of many decades. I am expecting the market to end its recent rally this week. The current rarely would be about a week in length depending when it began for individual stocks. The rally has done a few important things with its slow and prolonged upward movement, mainly prevents a wave 3 signal from occurring during the next decline. My wave 3 indicator tends to signal wave 3s and 3 of 3s. See my scripts for the specifics of the indicator. If the market had a short wave 4 up and then a sharp or prolonged drop during wave 5, a new wave 3 signal would occur which violates the currently placed Minor wave 3 (yellow 3). Allowing separation from the current wave 3 signal enables wave 5 to drop quick or slow. This chart applies select movement extensions based on wave 1's movement on the left and then another based on wave 3's movement on the right. I keep the values between 0%-100% on the chart for wave 2s and 4s retracements of the preceding wave's movement for reference even though the retracement values would be inverted. Specifically for CSCO, Minor wave 3 was the shortest impulsive wave, likely indicating wave 5 will be 75 bars (30 minute scale) or less. This will likely put a restriction on the length of the decline. Assuming wave 4 ends on Thursday or Friday, Minor wave 5 would be around a week long. In that time, at the very least it should drop below wave 3's bottom of 59.23. Using some basic movement extensions, it will likely go lower. Once we bottom, we should see another rally over a few weeks. I will forecast what that could look like as Intermediate wave 1 nears its end.
From a technical perspective, the daily and 4-hour levels show a bullish structure, but the indicators show that the current price has shown signs of divergence after a continuous rise. Gold strategy: It is recommended to buy at 3040, stop loss at 3030, target at 3055-3060; it is recommended to sell at 3060, stop loss at 3070, target at 3045-3038