Bitcoin Analysis After a 47% surge from the first accumulation zone, the price entered a consolidation phase. Breaking out of the next accumulation zone, Bitcoin rallied by 61%, showcasing strong bullish momentum. Currently, the price is consolidating again, with a potential 40% upside if the bullish trend continues. Previous breakout levels now act as key support for any pullbacks.
Bonk should come and properly test the weekly level. Going further down is always possible, stop cold be lengthened and target raised. From somewhere down here there should be a bigger move up.
The price is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.0451 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.0391 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.0535 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Key Concepts of Smart Money Concepts (SMC) 1. Market Structure – Higher Highs and Higher Lows (HH, HL): In an uptrend, the price creates higher highs and higher lows. – Lower Highs and Lower Lows (LH, LL): In a downtrend, the price creates lower highs and lower lows. – Understanding these patterns helps traders identify the overall trend direction. 2. Liquidity Zones – Liquidity Pools: Areas where stop-loss orders are clustered, often around significant support and resistance levels. Institutions target these areas to fill their orders. – Order Blocks: Areas of consolidation before significant price moves. These are often the zones where institutional buying or selling has occurred. 3.Order Flow – Understanding Supply and Demand: Traders analyze how supply and demand dynamics affect price movements. An imbalance between buyers and sellers can lead to significant price changes. – Market Orders vs. Limit Orders: Recognizing the difference can help assess where liquidity may be present in the market. 4. Smart Money vs. Retail Traders – Smart Money: Refers to institutional traders who have access to more information, resources, and capital. Their actions often dictate market movements. – Retail Traders: Individual traders who may not have the same level of insight. SMC aims to align trades with the actions of smart money. 5.Market Sentiment – Understanding market sentiment helps traders gauge the emotional state of the market. Sentiment can be bullish, bearish, or neutral and affects price movements. Practical Application of SMC 1. Identifying Entry and Exit Points: – Traders look for price action around key liquidity zones and order blocks to identify potential entry points. For example, entering a trade when price retraces to an order block after a breakout. 2.Using Price Action: – Analyzing candlestick patterns, trends, and reversals helps traders make informed decisions based on real-time market behavior. 3. Risk Management: – SMC emphasizes the importance of managing risk by setting stop-loss orders near key levels and adjusting position sizes based on market conditions. 4. Combining with Other Tools: – Many traders use SMC alongside other technical analysis tools (like Fibonacci retracements, moving averages, etc.) to enhance their trading strategies.
AYO is a black-owned technology company spun out of AEEI, which still holds a 49.4% stake in the business. The company has faced significant controversy, particularly surrounding a massive R4.3 billion investment by the Public Investment Corporation (PIC). This investment has been the subject of legal action, which was finally settled on 31st March 2023, with AYO agreeing to pay the PIC R619 million. The settlement has left many questioning the financial integrity of the deal, with allegations that PIC pensioners lost billions of rands. AYO shares listed at R43 but dropped dramatically, reaching a low of 105c. The share has since recovered slightly and is currently trading around 305c after its latest results. However, trading volumes remain extremely thin, with many days seeing no activity at all. The company employs approximately 1,400 people, and a significant portion of its income appears to come from interest on the remaining PIC funds. Concerns about AYO’s governance and financial reporting have persisted for years. Former financial director Siphiwe Nodwele testified before the Mpati Commission that the company is likely only worth R700 million. Former CFO Naahied Gamieldien also admitted to adjusting margins to artificially inflate profits, resulting in the company’s profit doubling. These admissions, along with other governance issues, have cast doubt on the company’s reported financials. In October 2019, the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) raided the offices of Iqbal Survé, who is associated with AYO, as part of an ongoing investigation. In addition, FNB closed AYO's bank accounts due to reputational risks. While AYO announced on 30th April 2021 that it had put in place "alternative third-party solutions" to enable continued trading, these actions have not alleviated investor concerns. On 1st June 2021, British Telecom (BT) severed ties with Sekunjalo, citing "misrepresentation of facts" presented to Parliament’s Standing Committee on Finance. Further governance lapses were highlighted on 10th February 2022, when the JSE barred two AYO directors from serving as directors of listed companies for five years due to their failure to ensure accurate financial reporting. On 22nd December 2022, the JSE publicly censured AYO for engaging in related-party transactions without complying with listing requirements. In its results for the year to 31st August 2024, AYO reported revenue down by 17% and a headline loss per share of 71.81c, an improvement from the previous year’s loss of 176.46c per share. Despite these figures, trust in the company’s reporting remains low, and we cannot recommend the share to private investors. On 6th September 2023, the JSE publicly censured AYO director Khalid Abdulla for breaching listing requirements and failing to fulfill his fiduciary duties. He was fined R2 million, while AYO was fined R6.5 million. On 14th June 2024, AYO announced the appointment of Dr. N.A. Ramatlhodi as Chairperson. Most recently, on 24th January 2025, AYO disclosed that a shareholder with a 0.13% stake in the company had filed a court application for its liquidation. AYO is opposing this application, further adding to the company's challenges. Given its history of governance failures, legal controversies, and unreliable reporting, we strongly advise private investors to avoid this share. The ongoing uncertainties, legal battles, and reputational risks make it a highly speculative and potentially dangerous investment.
Technical Analysis: * Trend Analysis: TSLA appears to be in a consolidation phase, trading within a rising wedge pattern. This signals potential for either a breakout or breakdown depending on market momentum. * Volume: Volume has been declining, suggesting reduced conviction in the recent price movement. * MACD: The MACD line is below the signal line, signaling bearish momentum. * Stoch RSI: The oscillator is moving into oversold territory, potentially indicating a bounce soon if demand picks up. Key Levels to Watch: * Support Levels: * $405: Immediate support level coinciding with recent price action. * $380: Stronger support if the wedge breaks downward. * Resistance Levels: * $440: First significant resistance. * $480: Critical gamma resistance wall. Trade Scenarios: * Bullish Scenario: * Entry: $410 * Target 1: $440 * Target 2: $480 * Stop Loss: $395 * Bearish Scenario: * Entry: $405 * Target 1: $380 * Target 2: $350 * Stop Loss: $420 GEX (Gamma Exposure) Insights for Options: https://www.tradingview.com/x/NR4rc1zp/ * Call Wall: * $440: 94.99% of GEX concentration, making this the primary resistance level. * Put Support: * $380: High concentration of puts, indicating strong support if prices test this level. * IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): * 54.3: High implied volatility, making options premium-rich for selling strategies. * Directional Bias: Neutral with a slightly bearish lean due to the MACD crossover and wedge pattern. Actionable Suggestions: 1. Consider selling options (e.g., iron condors) to capitalize on premium from TSLA’s high IV. 2. Watch for price action near the $405 level for a potential breakdown or bounce. 3. Avoid over-leveraging as volatility remains elevated. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence before trading.
GBPUSD: The GBP/USD pair starts the new week on a weaker note and loses some of Friday's strong gains to the psychological 1.25000 mark, or nearly three-week peak. Spot prices are currently trading around 1.24600, down 0.20% on the day amid modest US Dollar (USD) strength, although the decline is not accompanied by any selling or bearish conviction. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, is recovering from a more than one-month low amid a flight to safety triggered by US President Donald Trump's decision to impose duties on imports to Colombia. Trump imposed 25 per cent tariffs on all imports from Colombia after the latter refused to allow two US military planes carrying deported migrants to land in the country. Trump also warned that the tariffs would be increased to 50 per cent next week if there was further non-compliance, fuelling fears of global trade wars and dampening investor appetite for riskier assets. However, significant US dollar strength seems unlikely amid rising bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut borrowing costs twice before the end of this year amid signs that US inflationary pressures are easing. Expectations were further heightened following comments by Trump last Thursday, who said he would call for an immediate cut in interest rates. This led to a fresh drop in US Treasury bond yields, which should curb further dollar strength. In addition, uncertainty over the prospects of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in February is helping to limit GBP/USD losses. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Reinet (RNI) is an investment holding company whose primary asset was a 2.12% holding in British American Tobacco (BAT), valued at approximately $1.8 billion, which accounted for 31% of its net asset value (NAV). This figure has decreased significantly from 85% ten years ago, largely due to a decline in BAT's share price. This decline reflects increasing legal challenges for the tobacco industry, particularly in the US, where the FDA is considering changes to menthol cigarette regulations. Despite this, Reinet showed little urgency to divest from BAT as it continued to receive strong dividends from growth in developing markets, even as cigarette sales declined in developed countries. As BAT's value decreased, other assets in Reinet's portfolio became more prominent. The largest of these is its 46% stake in Pension Insurance Corporation (Penscorp), which now represents 36.8% of its portfolio. Additionally, the company owns a variety of private equity investments accounting for approximately 15% of its portfolio. Since March 2009, Reinet has achieved a compound growth rate of 8.8% per annum. In its results for the six months to 30th September 2024, Reinet reported a NAV of 3625 euro cents per share, up from 3089 euro cents a year earlier. The company emphasized that it has no direct exposure to Russia, Ukraine, or the Middle East through its underlying investments or banking relationships and has not faced significant direct impacts from interest rate fluctuations or inflation. The share is considered a rand-hedge investment. While it fell from a high of R343 in February 2020 to lows in January 2021, we recommended waiting for a break above its long-term downward trendline. That break occurred on 16th September 2019 at R270 per share, and the share is now trading at R480.31. It faced a setback after BAT announced a GBP25 million write-down of its US operations, which caused a 10% fall in BAT's share price. On 13th January 2025, Reinet announced the sale of its entire BAT holding, which accounted for 24% of its total portfolio, for GBP 1.221 billion. This marked a significant shift in the company's asset composition. Subsequently, on 22nd January 2025, Reinet announced that its NAV as of 31st December 2024 was 40.46 euros based on 171.3 million shares in issue. However, in a quarterly report on 24th January 2025, the company adjusted its NAV figure to 38.12 euros as of the same date. This share benefits from any weakness in the rand, and investors should carefully consider the currency's future prospects before making decisions. With the sale of its BAT holding, Reinet’s portfolio diversification and growth strategy will be a key area for investors to monitor going forward.
If Pepe gets down to these levels should be a good trade
The Foschini Group (TFG) is an international retailer with a portfolio of 28 fashion brands. The company operates 4,083 trading outlets in 32 countries worldwide, including divisions in London, Australia, and a substantial presence in South Africa. One of TFG’s standout achievements has been its ability to establish a successful business in Australia, where many other retailers, such as Woolworths, have struggled. In 2017, TFG acquired the Retail Apparel Group (RAG) in Australia for just over $300 million and has allowed the Australian management team significant autonomy, refraining from micromanaging the business from South Africa. Over the long term, TFG has consistently performed well in the challenging retail clothing sector in South Africa, where it faces stiff competition from both overseas brands and local retailers. It is regarded as the best of the retail clothing companies on the JSE and is well-diversified internationally, offering a valuable rand-hedge element. Although retail is typically sensitive to the business cycle, the TFG board has demonstrated an impressive ability to manage the company profitably, even in challenging environments where others have failed. In its results for the six months to 30th September 2024, TFG reported revenue down 1.4% and headline earnings per share down 5.6%. Despite this, online sales grew by 9.9%, contributing 10.7% to total turnover, with its Bash online platform in South Africa achieving impressive growth of 47.9%. The company stated, "...the improvement from the 3.5% decline reported in our 21-week guidance in September 2024 highlights the noticeable improvement in trading activity experienced in all territories since September 2024, and through to November 2024." In an update on the three months to 28th December 2024, TFG reported group sales up 8.4%, with online sales surging 47.2%. From June 2023, the share has been in a new upward trend, indicating growing investor confidence. On 27th October 2024, TFG announced the acquisition of the UK fashion and lifestyle retailer White Stuff for an undisclosed amount, further expanding its international footprint. TFG continues to be a well-managed and resilient company, capitalizing on both its strong international diversification and growing online presence. The company’s ability to adapt to market challenges and expand strategically positions it as a compelling investment. We believe TFG should be accumulated during periods of market weakness for long-term growth potential.