The price has dropped and entered, and I expect the trend to continue rising. There are untested Order Blocks in these areas, and potential reversal points might be found here.
this is an update I sent 3 trades EU of which stop loss of 20 pips and GU of which it hit take profits of 40 pips NCAD sell limit is active with 15 pips profits we are up 1% for the day and 3% for the week.
They say, “the trend is your friend”—until it bends at the end. Every strong move eventually runs out of steam, but spotting the turn and trading it effectively is no easy task. Some traders try to anticipate the reversal, positioning ahead of time, while others wait for confirmation, entering once the trend has already shifted. Both methods have their strengths and weaknesses, and the best approach depends on your risk tolerance and trading style. Anticipating the Turn: Catching the Reversal Early This approach focuses on momentum shifts and false breakouts before the price fully confirms a new trend. The goal is to enter before the crowd, capturing a reversal at the best possible price. Key Tools: Momentum Divergence – If price makes a new high or low, but RSI fails to follow, it suggests the trend is weakening. False Breakouts – If price breaks a key level but immediately reverses, it signals a trap set for traders expecting continuation. Benefits: • Better risk-reward – Entering before the confirmation means stops can be tighter, allowing for a larger potential profit. • First-mover advantage – Catching a trend change early means getting in at a great price before the majority of traders react. Drawbacks: • Higher failure rate – Many trends look weak before resuming, leading to premature entries and false starts. • Requires precision – Entry and stop placement must be exact to avoid being caught in noise. Waiting for Confirmation: Trading the Break Rather than trying to predict the turn, this method waits for price to confirm the reversal by breaking key levels or forming a clear new trend structure. Key Tools: Trend Structure Shift – A series of lower highs in an uptrend, or higher lows in a downtrend, signals exhaustion. Break of Key Support/Resistance – Once price decisively moves beyond a critical level, it confirms the trend change. Benefits: • Higher probability trades – Waiting for confirmation reduces the risk of being faked out by temporary pullbacks. • Less stressful – Entering after the break avoids the uncertainty of catching tops and bottoms. Drawbacks: • Worse risk-reward – Entry is later, meaning stops tend to be wider and potential profits smaller. • Missed moves – Sometimes, a reversal happens too quickly, leaving conservative traders behind. Applying Both Methods: Two Live Market Examples 1. EUR/USD – A Potential Trend Reversal in Progress Recently, EUR/USD had been stuck in a long-term downtrend, with lower lows forming consistently. But the latest attempt to break support failed spectacularly. Anticipatory Approach: Traders watching for a false breakout could have entered after price dipped below support and immediately reversed. RSI also showed bullish divergence—momentum was no longer confirming the downtrend. Entry would be placed just above the reclaimed support, with a tight stop below the false breakdown. Momentum-Based Approach: Traders waiting for confirmation would have looked for a strong breakout above the first major resistance. After the false breakdown, price surged above prior swing highs, confirming buyers had taken control. The break of horizontal resistance provided a clearer entry signal, with stops below the breakout level. EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/bVgEDMvD/ Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 2. S&P 500 – The Start of a Breakdown? The S&P 500 had been in a strong uptrend, but multiple failed attempts to break through resistance suggested buyers were losing momentum. Eventually, price broke below key support, triggering a sharp decline. Anticipatory Approach: Traders looking for early signs of weakness could have entered short after noticing a series of failed breakouts. RSI divergence signalled that momentum was waning, and the repeated failures at resistance suggested a sell-off was brewing. The entry would have been placed near resistance, with stops just above the recent highs. Momentum-Based Approach: A more patient trader would have waited for a confirmed break of support. Once the S&P sliced through a major level, a short trade could be initiated on the retest of the broken support, with stops just above the previous swing low. S&P Daily Candle Chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/XAvM3x6M/ Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Final Thoughts: Choosing the Right Approach Both methods have their advantages. Anticipating reversals can offer an early entry with strong risk-reward potential, but it also comes with a higher chance of false signals. Waiting for confirmation provides greater clarity and reduces the likelihood of premature entries, though it often means entering later in the move. Neither approach is inherently better—it depends on your trading style, risk tolerance, and strategy. The key is consistency: whichever method you use, having a clear plan and following it with discipline is what separates successful traders from those who get caught on the wrong side of a trend change. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
price is still under a break down trend line, just tested with cpi bounce. i believe it will continue to test that line or break above it to challenge the top of the channel. any good news will be a massive squeeze. there is a gap to fill at 20200ish, possible friday target for a relief rally.
I am looking to enter a buy position on NZD/JPY if the current 4-hour candle closes above the red descending trendline, confirming a breakout. Trade Details: Entry: 84.85, once a confirmed 4H candle closes above the trendline. Stop Loss (SL): 84.19, placed below recent structure support to minimize risk. Take Profit (TP) Levels: TP1: 85.63 TP2: 87.18 TP3: 88.14 TP4: 89.11 Price has been in a downtrend, respecting the descending trendline (red). A breakout and candle close above the trendline signals a potential trend reversal. A recent higher low suggests bullish momentum is building. Risk-to-reward is favorable, targeting multiple take-profit levels.
(1/9) Good afternoon, everyone! ? NYSE:CDRE : Cadre Holdings – Riding the Safety Wave? With CDRE at $30.20, is this stock a safe bet or a risky ride? Let's dive into the world of safety gear and see if Cadre's holdings hold up! ? (2/9) – PRICE PERFORMANCE • Current Price: $30.20 as of March 12, 2025 ? • Recent Moves: Down 11% from $34.02 a week ago ? • Sector Vibe: Safety equipment sector is growing, driven by stricter regulations and demand for safer workplaces. ? Short commentary: The stock's taken a hit, but the sector's looking good. Maybe it's just a temporary dip? ? (3/9) – MARKET POSITION • Market Cap: Approximately $1.23 billion ? • Operations: Manufacturing and distributing safety and survivability products for law enforcement, first responders, military, and now, the nuclear market. ?️ • Trend: Expanding into new markets with the acquisition of nuclear safety brands. ? Short commentary: They're diversifying, which is usually a good sign. More markets mean more opportunities. ? (4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS • Acquisition of Carr's Engineering Limited's Engineering Division for nuclear safety solutions, announced on January 16, 2025. ? • Expected to close in the first half of 2025. ⌛ • Market Reaction: The stock has seen a recent dip, possibly reflecting integration concerns or broader market volatility. ? Short commentary: This should bring in new revenue streams and expand their international presence. Let's see how it plays out. ? (5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS • Integration risks from the acquisition. ⚙️ • Supply chain disruptions. ? • Regulatory changes in the nuclear sector. ? Short commentary: These are all things to keep an eye on, but every company has some risks. Stay vigilant! ?️ (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS • Strong reputation in safety equipment. ? • Diverse product portfolio. ? • Recent acquisition expanding into the nuclear market. ? Short commentary: They're well-known and have a broad range of products, which is great. Keep up the good work! ? (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES • Weaknesses: Potential over-reliance on government contracts, integration challenges. ⚠️ • Opportunities: Growth in nuclear safety market, increasing global demand for safety products. ? Short commentary: They need to manage their dependencies and make sure the acquisition goes smoothly, but there's a lot of potential for growth. Let's hope they nail it! ? (8/9) – CDRE at $30.20 – what's your call? ?️ • Bullish: Price could rise to $35+ soon, due to successful acquisition and sector growth. ? • Neutral: Price remains steady, as the market digests the acquisition news. ? • Bearish: Price could drop to $25, due to integration risks and market volatility. ? Drop your pick below! ? (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY Cadre Holdings' $30.20 stance shows a robust portfolio and strategic expansion, but recent price dips and integration risks are concerns. Volatility’s our ally—dips are DCA treasure. Snag low, soar high!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/fnVbCaOp/ Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the EURJPY pair which is likely to be pushed down by the bears so we will sell! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Over the past few years as price has reached major potential turning points in the market I have sounded the alarm that LONG SIDE RISK has risen and to be on HIGH ALERT for a potential downturn. Of course as we have seen this Bull Market has had significant legs and has continued to grind higher. What now? I told you in September that it did not matter who was elected that the Market would turn weak...and it did We have been going essentially sideways since November I also said that around Jan 15th the market would turn lower...and it has I also said that lower move would take us down to the 5600-5700 region..and it did Now I am telling you that we are setting up for what appears to be ONE FINAL PUSH HIGHER Where does that move take us? Somewhere near 6500 What happens after that? You can expect a SWIFT CRASH LIKE move back to almost exactly where we are now but probably around 5400 And its at THAT point that ALL CARDS WILL BE ON THE TABLE You should expect a retracement back up from that 5400 region If that retracement is CLEARLY CORRECTIVE in nature then you can expect a move down to 5000 and if the market cant hold that region then its: GAME OVER Can I be wrong? Absolutely...and for the sake of the people I love, this country that I call home and my brotherhood of fellow humans around the world I HONESTLY HOPE I AM Because if I'm not wrong then whats coming over the next decade will be potentially MUCH WORSE THAN A RECESSION PREPARE YOURSELF
Godfrey Philip This stock is forming good Weekly Tighter Close. Let's wait & check out how it behaves this week. 17 Feb Week Rejection is alarming. No follow through to that rejection in last week. This week is defending last weekly low so far. Highly Risky Trade, Rs.600, I am targeting 10% i.e. 24 Feb 25 Weekly High. This is not a Buy Reco, Do your own Diligence. This is purely for educational purpose.
Bitcoin has been very unstable this year, probably due to the new Administration. MIGHT be due to the influx of regulations or government transactions. MIGHT be due to Demand and Supply changes. MIGHT be due to the volatility between countries. Regulatory Worries ?: Fears about stricter rules and crackdowns are making investors jittery. Profit-Taking ?: Some holders are cashing out their gains, which puts downward pressure on prices. Market Volatility ?: Wild swings in crypto and broader markets are unsettling buyers and sellers. Tech Troubles & Security Concerns ?: Hiccups with blockchain tech and news of hacks can trigger sell-offs. Crypto Market Slump ?: A broader downturn in the crypto space is dragging Bitcoin's value down. TECHNICALS: M Formation as I showed last time and this is the update. Price200MA - This is a CONCERN for the analysis because the 200MA is the Mother of all Moving Averages that Millions of crypto traders and enthusiasts look at. Target $47,987 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.