BINANCE:BTCUSDT is approaching trend resistance and most likely it may test the liquidity zone and risk zone for sellers (liquidity hunt ?), but does the market have the potential to support the upside? https://www.tradingview.com/x/3Z8Buf1V/ Bitcoin is strengthening and channel resistance may not stop this growth. Based on the nature of price movement (smooth, gradual, consolidating), bitcoin may test liquidity 84.7K - 88.8K. But it is too early to talk about further growth On W1, the price is in a trading range (consolidation) between the previously broken global consolidation support and the current support. Short bodies, long shadows speak about consolidation. Also worth noting are the relatively long tails to the downside and the weak market reaction... Fundamentally, the cryptocurrency market (community as a whole) for the past week did not get anything positive as from the very beginning of this year, the growth can be attributed to the 90-day technical break by Trump, but there are a number of nuances: - the fire has not yet been put out - just because they gave a 90-day break doesn't mean everything is fine. It's just a head start for the U.S. to prepare for the situation more thoroughly - The escalating conflict between the U.S. and China has investors looking for less risky assets like gold. Cryptocurrencies are definitely not on that list. - Rumors of a US interest rate cut are likely to provide support as well. Resistance levels: 84700, 88800 Support levels: 78200, 73-74К, 66500 I would not hurry with conclusions about further growth. Growth could be considered if bitcoin overcomes 88800 and consolidates above this zone. But a sharp approach or a false breakout of one of the mentioned liquidity zones may provoke a reversal and fall. Regards R. Linda!
We have price hovering above the 200 EMA and a key level around the 391 to 396 price area. Also, we have a possible piercing line candlestick pattern. Oscillators are in oversold regions. Chris Moody MACD is in the red zone but possibly could shift green. If price fails the 200 EMA we might have price action towards 346.68. Be careful and if the markets are too intense you can always paper trade.
Why does RSI have support and resistance levels at 40 and 60? Why does divergence happen between RSI and price? What is RSI momentum? All the characteristics of RSI (that I know) will be explained here. Formula and Meaning If you are using TradingView, you probably already know what RSI is and what "overbought" and "oversold" mean. So, I won’t repeat it here. Instead, I’ll dive deeper into the true nature of RSI, giving you a different perspective. You can skip the mathematical formula of RSI, it’s already discussed everywhere online. Just remember this ratio table: https://www.tradingview.com/x/MMGWCc8y/ Here’s how I explain the table: At RSI = 50, the average gain equals the average loss (I'll call this the buy/sell ratio). This is a balanced point. Buyers and sellers are equally strong. At RSI ~ 60 (66.66), the buy/sell ratio = 2/1. Buyers are twice as strong as sellers. At RSI ~ 40 (33.33), the buy/sell ratio = 1/2. Sellers are twice as strong as buyers. At RSI = 80, the buy/sell ratio = 4/1. Buyers are four times stronger. At RSI = 20, the buy/sell ratio = 1/4. Sellers are four times stronger. The formula shows that when RSI reaches 80 or 20, the buyer or seller is extremely strong — about four times stronger — confirming a clear trend. At these levels, some Trading strategies suggest placing a Sell or Buy based on the overbought/oversold idea. But for me, that’s not the best way. The right approach is: when a trend is clearly formed, we should follow it. I'll explain why right below. Look at this chart showing RSI changes with the buy/sell ratio: When RSI > 50: https://www.tradingview.com/x/2OKtuVm0/ When RSI < 50: https://www.tradingview.com/x/D19cdXvs/ You can see that the higher RSI goes, the slower it climbs, but the high buy/sell ratio makes price move up faster. Similarly, when RSI goes lower, it drops slower but price drops faster. That’s why at overbought (RSI=80) or oversold (RSI=20) areas, you need to be careful. Even a small RSI moving can lead to big price changes, easily hitting your stop loss. On the other hand, if you follow the trend and wait for RSI to pull back, you will trade safer and more profitably. RSI Key Levels Here are some special RSI levels I personally find useful when observing FX:XAUUSD : (These levels are relative. They might vary with different timeframes or trading pairs. Check historical data to find the right ones for you. On bigger timeframes like M15 or above, the accuracy is better.) RSI = 20 When RSI hits 20, sellers dominate. This confirms a trend reversal to bearish. RSI = 80 When RSI hits 80, buyers dominate. This confirms a trend reversal to bullish. RSI = 40 This is a sensitive level. Sellers start gaining the upper hand (sell/buy = 2/1). If buyers lose 40, they lose their advantage. So RSI >= 40 is "buyer territory". In an uptrend, RSI usually stays above 40. RSI = 40 acts as support in an uptrend. RSI = 60 Same idea. RSI = 40 is buyer territory, we can see the relationship between price and RSI: When RSI stays above 40, price tends to move in an uptrend: https://www.tradingview.com/x/6kk36Xk4/ When RSI stays below 60, price tends to move in a downtrend: https://www.tradingview.com/x/zMNJsGej/ When RSI stays between 40 and 60, buyers and sellers are balanced, and price moves sideways in a box: https://www.tradingview.com/x/D77Z8rjF/ When RSI is moving, It creates a RSI Range. Whenever the trend switches between the three states — uptrend, sideways, and downtrend — a Range Shift is formed. https://www.tradingview.com/x/R4jeSs53/ At first, RSI moves in 40-60 range, price moves sideways. A strong price move pushes RSI to 80. Later, RSI stays above 50, helping price grow strongly. When momentum fades, RSI returns to 40-60 and price moves sideways again. Note: RSI reflects Dow Theory by showing the stages of accumulation, growth, and distribution. And as you see, when RSI touches key levels, the trend often pulls it back. RSI Momentum Price momentum means how fast price changes.RSI momentum represents the change in the strength between buying and selling forces. When RSI > 50: If price falls, RSI shows high momentum — RSI drops fast but price drops slowly. If price rises, RSI shows low momentum — RSI rises slowly but price rises fast. https://www.tradingview.com/x/7QFcrzWV/ For example, at first RSI is above 50. Price drops from (a) to (b) by 44 units, RSI drops from (Ra) to (Rb) by 25 units. Later, RSI drops from (Rb) to (Rc) (also 25 units) but price drops from (b) to (c) by 73 units. When RSI < 50: If price falls, RSI has low momentum — RSI drops slowly but price falls fast. If price rises, RSI has high momentum — RSI rises fast but price rises slowly. RSI and Price Divergence Divergence happens when price and RSI move in opposite directions: Price goes up but RSI goes down, or vice versa. https://www.tradingview.com/x/rNzOJcLi/ Why does divergence happen? https://www.tradingview.com/x/Bff7hRXa/ In a strong downtrend, price forms a bottom at point (1), and RSI drops to level (r1). When a price pullback happens, price pushes up to a peak at point (2), and RSI also bounces back to level (r2). Because the downtrend is strong, after completing the pullback (1-2), price continues to make a lower bottom at point (3). At this point, remember the behavior of RSI momentum when RSI is below 50: It takes a large price drop (from 2 to 3) to cause a small RSI drop (from r2 to r3). Meanwhile, even a small price increase (from 1 to 2) causes a large RSI rise (from r1 to r2). Since the distance (1-2) is smaller than (2-3), but the RSI move (r1-r2) is bigger than (r2-r3), divergence is created. Divergence shows that the current trend is very strong, not a complete signal of a trend reversal. (I might share with you how to spot a complete RSI reversal signal in future posts.) As shown in the example above, after forming bottom (5) and creating a bullish divergence between (3-5) and (r3-r5), price still kept dropping sharply while RSI kept rising. In these areas, if you keep trying to catch a reversal just based on divergence, you will likely need to DCA or cut your losses many times. That’s why the most important thing in trading is always to follow the trend. RSI Exhaustion RSI Exhaustion happens when RSI keeps getting rejected by a resistance or support zone and can’t break through. https://www.tradingview.com/x/2UnyuQ1i/ After a strong downtrend, RSI recovers but stalls around the 5x zone. It tries many times but fails, showing buying power is weakening. Then the downtrend continues: https://www.tradingview.com/x/E4q7Uxgt/ Exhaustion near high or low RSI levels creates stronger divergences than exhaustion in the middle range: https://www.tradingview.com/x/HP31XpY4/ Double or triple tops/bottoms on RSI (M or W shapes) basically indicate RSI exhaustion. RSI Can Identify Trend Strength In an uptrend: If RSI pulls back to a higher level before going up again, the trend is stronger. The pullback should not fall too deep (below 40). Example: First rally: RSI drops to 60 before rising again → strong rally (273 units). Second rally: RSI drops to 50 before rising again → weaker rally (94 units). https://www.tradingview.com/x/i1a1mkGX/ Same idea for a downtrend: If RSI pullbacks to 50 then drops again, the downtrend is stronger than if it pullbacks to 60. RSI Support and Resistance Besides 40-60 acting as support/resistance, RSI also reacts to old tops and bottoms it created. https://www.tradingview.com/x/AFTmILvv/ Why does this happen? RSI is calculated from closing prices. On a higher timeframe, the candle close price is a high/low or support/resistance price on lower timeframes. When RSI moves in a trend on a higher timeframe, it maintains a buy/sell ratio, forcing lower timeframe RSI to oscillate within a range. https://www.tradingview.com/x/AvpWBWyB/ Example: On H4, RSI stays above 40 → uptrend. It makes H1 RSI move between 30-80. https://www.tradingview.com/x/YFcjjWPm/ Sharp RSI tops/bottoms react even stronger because they show strong buying/selling forces. Summary When looking at the price chart, we can see that price can rise or fall freely without any defined boundaries. However, RSI operates differently: it always moves within a fixed range from 0 to 100. During its movement, RSI forms specific patterns that reflect the behavior of price. Because RSI has a clear boundary, identifying its characteristics and rules becomes easier compared to analyzing pure price action. By studying RSI patterns, we can make better assumptions and predict future price trends with higher accuracy. I have shared with you the core characteristics of RSI, summarized as follows: Besides overbought (80) and oversold (20), RSI respects 40 and 60. 40 is support level in an uptrend. 60 is resistance level in a downtrend. In an uptrend, RSI stays above 40. In a downtrend, RSI stays below 60. An RSI Range-Shift leads to a trend change. RSI Divergence shows strong trends. Double or triple tops/bottoms show RSI exhaustion → potential reversals. The higher the RSI level, the slower it moves, but the faster the price rises. The lower the RSI level, the slower it moves, but the faster the price falls. A strong uptrend can be identified when RSI moves within a higher range or shows continuous bearish divergences. A strong downtrend can be identified when RSI moves within a lower range or shows continuous bullish divergences. RSI reacts to its old tops and bottoms. Sharper RSI peaks show stronger selling. Sharper RSI bottoms show stronger buying. In the next parts, I’ll show you how to apply these RSI's Characteristics to trend analysis, multi-timeframe analysis, and trading strategies, that you might have never seen before. I trade purely with RSI. Follow me for deep dives into RSI-based technical analysis and discussions!
The chart is good, because we have a long-term rising bottom. The All-Time Low was set in August 2024. Another good point for this pair is the fact that the long-term higher low happened in March 2025, last month. The low in April ended up as a higher low. Another point in favor. For the 2025 All-Time High potential I have the same problem as with Sui, the chart is too young, I cannot make any accurate projection based on TA. The following numbers can be good but can also underestimate this pair because we simply don't know how it performs in a bull market. $1.85 would be the main first level to look for. Vs current price, this would open 535% profits potential. The next level is $3, which translates into 927% potential for profits, if the entry is done at current levels. A 400% bullish jump in the last wave means that this pair can easily grow 1,000-2,000% in this bull market, easily; the truth is that it can be much more. It is very early in the game. It is a new project, so it can end up growing like new projects tend to grow. Look at The Sandbox trade idea for some examples or the recent publication about Cardano. Anything is possible. Prepare for something great. Thanks a lot for your continued support. Namaste.
? Ethereum (ETH/USD) – Weekly Timeframe Analysis ?️ Chart Pattern: Rising Wedge with Triple Top Formation ? A deeper look at a high-probability bearish reversal pattern unfolding on the macro trend. ? 1. Market Context: Bullish Momentum Turning Bearish Ethereum experienced a prolonged bullish trend starting from mid-2022, pushing steadily upward and forming higher highs and higher lows. This structure eventually evolved into a Rising Wedge—a well-known bearish reversal pattern that signals weakening bullish momentum as the range narrows. Key Characteristics of the Wedge: Both the support and resistance trendlines are rising, but the support line is steeper, indicating weakening buying pressure. Price volatility shrinks, creating a squeeze that often results in a decisive breakout. The breakout in this case occurred to the downside, confirming the wedge as a bearish structure. ? 2. Triple Top Pattern – Exhaustion at Resistance During the formation of the wedge, Ethereum attempted to break through a major horizontal resistance zone (~$4,000) three separate times, forming a Triple Top: Top 1, Top 2, and Top 3 are clear and well-defined, each failing to close above the resistance level. Triple Tops signify bullish exhaustion, often preceding major reversals. This pattern inside the wedge adds a layer of confluence, boosting the strength and reliability of the bearish signal. ? 3. Market Psychology Behind the Setup Buyers pushed ETH higher after each retracement, hoping for a breakout. However, the failure to break above the resistance level three times shows that demand is drying up. This forms a distribution zone where institutional traders often offload positions. When the final push fails and support breaks, panic and selling pressure ensue — exactly what we see in this setup. ? 4. Breakdown Confirmation & Entry Opportunity After forming the third top, Ethereum broke below the Rising Wedge’s support, triggering a confirmed bearish reversal. A retest of the broken wedge support followed (classic retest behavior). Price was rejected at the former support, now acting as resistance. This provided a textbook short entry confirmation. ? 5. Trade Setup Details Trade Element Description Entry Zone After the retest rejection of broken wedge support Stop Loss (SL) Above previous resistance zone at ~$2,325 Take Profit (TP) Long-term target around ~$102.9 (projected by wedge height) Risk:Reward Favorable, potentially 1:5 or greater depending on entry timing The projected target is aggressive, but justified using measured move theory from the height of the wedge applied to the breakdown point. ? 6. Technical Confluences Supporting the Bearish Case Bearish divergence (likely on RSI/MACD if added) near Top 2 and Top 3. Volume decline during wedge formation, another wedge pattern validation. Psychological resistance at $4,000 — round numbers often act as magnets or walls. Macro environment and Bitcoin dominance could weigh on ETH's performance. ? 7. Summary: Why This Setup Matters The Rising Wedge with Triple Top combination is powerful, especially on a weekly timeframe. The clear structural breakdown with retest confirms a trend shift from bullish to bearish. Offers a clean short setup for swing traders and position traders with solid risk management. The large projected drop is plausible given the macro range and breakdown mechanics. This type of setup is rare and high-conviction — ideal for traders looking to capitalize on trend reversals and longer-term market shifts.
New Week Gold target Is here Confirmed Selling In New Week in The Chart zoon 3234/3240 Targets 3225/3220/3100
Price is at a make or break point at 10.70, where if price does not hold it may return to the 10.05 area the bottom of the range. If price overcomes the 10.70 area price may rise to the 10.99 or 11.40 targets. Oscillators levels are healthy and Chris Moody MACD indicator levels are healthy, price previously had two successful consolidations and break outs. There may also be the possibility of a golden cross purple 50 EMA crossing over the orange 200 EMA. Be advised of premarket activity.
The action is happening right above 0.786 Fib. retracement level support. Above it, the actual level wasn't hit and this is a signal of strength. I looked at this chart when the action was happening above 0.618 and mentioned that it could drop further before the start of the next bullish wave. See what happened, as soon as the next support gets challenged, volume goes up. This is significant volume in comparison with the daily average. The highest volume since November 2024. This volume signal can be easily translated as support found. Support found means that the down-move is no more. The down-move being over invariably leads to change. Change means the market won't be dropping no more. If it was going down, soon, SUIUSDT should start to grow. That's my conclusion based on the data coming from the chart. Even if prices move a bit lower, the bullish bias still remains. There is an ending diagonal on the chart. This pattern tends to show up before a change of trend. The correction is over. It is only a matter of time before the next bullish wave. Thanks a lot for your amazing and continued support. It is truly appreciated. It is not possible to project an accurate ATH for this pair because the chart is too young. Relevant numbers for 2025 are $9.42 and $15.24. Namaste.
Looking at history, ETH corrections of 65–75% have often been followed by sharp rallies. I believe we’re in a similar situation right now. With the upcoming Pectra upgrade on the horizon, there’s a strong chance we could see this pattern repeat. At the same time, ETH is currently undervalued — not just against BTC, but also compared to many altcoins. In my opinion, ETH is the most undervalued asset in the market right now.
BTC/USD Cup-and-Handle-Formation mit Kursziel 123.000 $ Der wöchentliche BTC/USD-Chart zeigt ein äußerst signifikantes langfristiges Cup-and-Handle-Muster, das eine Fortsetzung des makroökonomischen Aufwärtstrends signalisiert. Dieses Muster ist nicht nur technisch überzeugend, sondern deckt sich auch mit dem historischen Bitcoin-Zyklusverhalten und der allgemeinen Marktstimmung. Die Formation erstreckt sich über zwei Jahre und unterstreicht das starke Anlegerinteresse und das Potenzial für einen deutlichen Aufwärtstrend. ? Erklärung des Musters: Cup and Handle ☕ Die „Cup“-Form und -Struktur: Der nach dem Allzeithoch 2021 (ca. 69.000 $) gebildete Cup-Teil führte zu einem Bärenmarkt und einer allmählichen Bodenbildung. Von Ende 2021 bis Ende 2022 fiel BTC und bildete eine abgerundete Basis, eine klassische Akkumulationszone. Volumenpsychologie: Das Volumen nahm während des Abwärtstrends generell ab und stieg mit der Markterholung Anfang 2023 wieder an – was auf einen allmählichen Wiedereinstieg von langfristigen Investoren und Institutionen hindeutet. Widerstandstest: Der Kurs kehrte zurück und testete die vorherige Widerstandszone bei 95.000–100.000 $ erneut. Damit wurde die „Tasse“ vervollständigt. ? Die „Henkel“-Pullback-Formation: Die „Henkel“-Formation entwickelte sich Ende 2024 bis Anfang 2025. Der Kurs fiel von der Widerstandszone ab und bildete ein Mini-Retracement, das eine bullische Struktur (höhere Tiefs) aufrechterhielt. Musterintegrität: Diese kleine Konsolidierung unterschritt die vorherige Unterstützung (ca. 70.000 $) nicht. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass die Bullen weiterhin die Kontrolle haben und sich auf einen weiteren Aufwärtstrend vorbereiten. ? Technische Analyse Beschreibung der wichtigsten Level Unterstützungszone ~70.000–75.000 $ – Griffbasis und historische horizontale Unterstützung Widerstandszone (Halslinie) ~95.000–100.000 $ – Mehrjahresbarriere, Rand des Cups Stop-Loss (SL) ~55.278 $ – unterhalb des Grifftiefs, macht das Muster ungültig, wenn es durchbrochen wird Take-Profit (TP) ~123.203 $ – projiziertes Ziel unter Berücksichtigung der Höhe des Cups zum Ausbruch Aufwärtstrend – konstant höhere Hochs/Tiefs und Kurs über den wichtigsten gleitenden Durchschnitten ? Handelsplan: Long-Setup ? Einstieg Suchen Sie nach einem bestätigten wöchentlichen Ausbruch und einem Schlusskurs über 100.000 $. Eine Volumenbestätigung ist entscheidend – ein starker Anstieg deutet auf institutionelles Interesse hin. ?️ Stop-Loss Unterhalb des Grifftiefs bei 55.000 $ Dieses Niveau macht den Ausbruch ungültig und signalisiert eine mögliche Trendwende. ? Ziele Primäres TP: 123.203 $ – gemessene Bewegung aus der Cup-Tiefe. Sekundäres TP: 130.000 $+ – psychologisches Niveau mit runden Zahlen. ⚖️ Risiko-Ertrags-Verhältnis Bei Einstieg bei 100.000 $, SL bei 55.278 $ und TP bei 123.203 $ → RR ~ 1:2,5+. Positionsgröße an die Risikotoleranz und Volatilität des Kontos anpassen. ? Marktkontext & Stimmung Makrofaktoren: Die bevorstehende Halbierung von Bitcoin könnte das Angebot reduzieren und eine Fortsetzung des Aufwärtstrends unterstützen. Institutionelle Kapitalflüsse nehmen zu (ETFs, Unternehmensakzeptanz). On-Chain-Daten (nicht im Chart): Langfristige Anlegerakkumulation steigt. Rückgang der Börsenreserven – deutet auf geringeren Verkaufsdruck hin. Psychologische Faktoren: Einzelhändler erkennen Cup-and-Handle-Muster oft erst spät, was zu starken FOMO-Ausbrüchen führt. Historische BTC-Ausbrüche aus solchen Mustern haben zu parabolischen Rallyes geführt. ? Fazit Dieser Chart zeigt ein klassisches langfristiges bullisches Fortsetzungsmuster, das sowohl technisch als auch fundamental mit einem potenziellen Bitcoin-Makroausbruch übereinstimmt. Die Cup-and-Handle-Formation ist historisch zuverlässig auf höheren Zeiträumen und wird aktuell durch die allgemeine Marktstimmung unterstützt. Wenn BTC die Nackenlinie mit starkem Volumen erfolgreich durchbricht, könnten wir in den kommenden Monaten neue Allzeithochs sehen. Es ist jedoch wichtig, Risiken richtig zu managen, Ausbrüche zu bestätigen und vorzeitige Einstiege zu vermeiden.