Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: This is the event bears have prayed for, full blown trade war and this market is not positioned for any downside risk. Let’s see where we close this week. Below 21500 would be amazing but let’s close below 22000 first. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21800 - 23000 bull case: Tbh, best bulls can hope for, is to stay above 22000. I can’t see this going above 22800 for the near future. If bulls do it, I am clearly wrong. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears got the event gift and now it’s about how fast do they want to get out of this. I expect the worst but stops for now are 22800. First target is a strong move below 22300, then bears need to break 22000 and print a lower low. If they do that, we most likely freefall to 22000. If things become real bad, we hit the big bull trend line from August tomorrow, likely around 21800. Invalidation is above 22800. short term: LFG. Trade small with wide stops. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Big up, big down. Triangle on the 4h chart and both sides made decent money today.
Timeframe: 4H Risk-Reward: 4.66R (~5R) Entry Type: Smart Money Concept (SMC) Supply & Demand In this trade, I took a buy position after identifying a bullish market structure on the 4-hour timeframe. I mapped out two Points of Interest (POIs): 1. A close POI – a nearer demand zone where I initially looked for a reaction. 2. An extreme POI – a deeper demand zone where price could mitigate before continuing bullish. Trade Progression: Initially, price tapped into the close POI but failed to hold, leading to liquidity sweep and stop-loss breach. Price then moved further down to my extreme POI, where it found strong support and reversed. A major news event on USD acted as a catalyst, driving price swiftly to my Take Profit (TP) level. Key Takeaways: ✔ Liquidity Grab: The stop hunt at the close POI cleared weak buyers before moving in the intended direction. ✔ Extreme POI Respect: Smart money often mitigates deeper institutional zones before continuing trend direction. ✔ News-Driven Volatility: The USD event accelerated price movement, hitting my TP faster than expected (~5R trade). This trade perfectly aligns with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and liquidity dynamics, reinforcing the importance of patience and POI selection. What’s your outlook on AUD/USD for the coming sessions? Share your thoughts below! #AUDUSD #SMC #ForexTrading #Liquidity #POI #PriceAction #SmartMoney
BTC is getting a huge rejection from the fake pump that happened during the Tarrif news. The market has been purely manipulated and now it has all the ingredients to fall to sub 70K. Entry / Take Profit and Stop loss on the 4 hour chart.
It is likely that ?GBPJPY will continue to rise from the underlined support zone. The formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern suggests significant bullish pressure. There is a good chance that the price will increase to levels around 194.99/195.66.
This 1-hour Gold (XAU/USD) chart presents a Head and Shoulders pattern forming near the 3,124 level, indicating a potential bearish reversal. The structure consists of: Left Shoulder – A peak followed by a retracement. Head – The highest point in the formation. Right Shoulder – A lower high, confirming the pattern. Additionally, a Quasimodo pattern is forming, reinforcing bearish sentiment if price fails to sustain above 3,139. A breakdown below the neckline suggests a potential move toward the projected target zone at 3,039. Key Levels & Trade Plan ? Resistance: 3,139 (Quasimodo level) ? Support Levels: 3,107 – 3,085 – 3,039 (Main target) ? Bearish Confirmation: Break below the neckline (~3,120) ? Target Zone: 3,039 A clean breakdown below the neckline could accelerate bearish momentum, aligning with the projected drop of approximately 62.7 points (-2.02%). Bulls need to reclaim 3,139 for any invalidation of this bearish outlook. Keep an eye on price action confirmation before entering trades.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mBNtkHlm/ ✅GBP_USD went up sharply And has hit a strong wide long-term Horizontal resistance level Around 1.3031 so we can enter A local short trade with the TP Of 1.2950 and the SL of 1.3055 SHORT? ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Just now opened a short position on rune. Aiming for $1.125 area to exit for 2RR. Depending on the market momentum I might opt to hold a bit longer. DTT setup. Time sensitive.
Hello everyone, let's look at the 1D FTM to USD chart, in this situation we can see how the price is moving in a descending triangle where we are approaching the moment of trying to choose the direction in which the price can go further. Let's start by defining the targets for the near future that the price has to face: T1 = 0.66 USD T2 = 0.81 USD Т3 = 0.93 USD Now let's move on to the stop-loss in case the market continues to fall: SL1 = 0.44 USD SL2 = 0.31 USD SL3 = 0.21 USD If we look at the MACD indicator we can see a return to a local downtrend, however we are still in a place where the trend can reverse and surprise us with growth.
- Caterpillar reversed from the support area - Likely to rise to the resistance level 350.00 Caterpillar recently reversed up from the support area between the key support level 318.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of 2024), lower weekly Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from August. The upward reversal from this support area stopped the earlier impulse wave C of the weekly ABC correction (4) from last year. Given the clear weekly uptrend, Caterpillar can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 350.00.
? Smart Money Concepts x Fundamental Flow Despite negative USD news (ADP & ISM) and Trump’s hawkish blurbs, Gold didn’t pop aggressively — it wicked up into premium supply, then quickly retraced. That’s a liquidity game, not a trend change (yet). Still bullish bias overall, but intraday looks mixed. ? Bigger Picture – D1/H4 Price rejected strongly from the premium supply zone near 3144–3147, leaving a clear wick with imbalance underneath. Bullish structure remains valid, but we're seeing a potential distribution pattern short-term. Trendline liquidity & HLs are stacking up below, ideal for a grab. ? Demand zones of interest: 3107–3115 (discount zone, strong reaction in prior sessions) 3086–3092 (last known rally base) ? Key Zones ? Premium supply: 3144–3147 ? Buyside liquidity: 3147–3155 ? Sellside liquidity grab zone: 3107–3115 ? Strong demand: 3086–3092 ? Major liquidity draw: 3180 zone (untouched weekly magnet) ? SCENARIO 1 – ? “Power of Discount” Buy Setup “When in doubt, hunt the imbalance out.” Price dips toward 3115–3107, taps imbalance + OB, shows M5/MS shift Confirmation + sniper long TP1: 3142 (last high), TP2: 3180 if momentum kicks in ? Confluences: Discount OB zone + unfilled imbalance Trendline tap + BOS + liquidity grab Weak DXY context ? SCENARIO 2 – ? Trap, Swipe & Rally Buy Deep sweep to 3086 zone Reversal signs after stop hunt / equal low grab Entry on CHoCH or breaker retest (M15 or M5) TP1: 3140, TP2: 3180 ? This is the “maximum pain = maximum profit” play. ? SCENARIO 3 – ? Premium Rejection Intraday Sell “Supply hits, market flips.” Price tests 3144–3147 again in early session No BOS on M5, shows weakness (M5/M15 LH + CHoCH) Sell into imbalance zones TP1: 3127, TP2: 3110 ⚠️ Only take this if we don’t break above 3147. Watch liquidity wicks! ? SCENARIO 4 – ? Fake Pump & Dump Price spikes through PDH, into 3155–3160 Quick rejection (news-induced spike or algo trap) Sell setup on lower TF reversal after liquidity sweep TP to 3115 zone ? A classic “grab & go” trap. Great RR but needs discipline. ? Macro Watch – April 3, 2025 Fed speakers are lining up — watch for dollar volatility ? China PMI during Asia could boost metals DXY might stay weak → keep gold supported Gold is at ATH regions = more manipulation + fakeouts!