NASDAQ HAS OFFICIALLY ENTERED A BEAR MARKET, DOWN ~22% NASDAQ:QQQ 2022 Bear Market bottomed ~37% just below the 200WMA S&P 500 is not quite there yet, down only ~17.5% SP:SPX 2022 Bear Market bottomed ~27% a tick below the 200WMA
There’s been a flood of noise in the media over the past few weeks—headlines shouting about uncertainty, new U.S. tariffs, market crashes, and an impending recession. Years ago, I used to pay close attention to this kind of news, identifying myself as a "fundamental analyst". It didn't take long until I realised that I was looking in the wrong direction. What changed my mindset was reflecting on how I felt during past market dips and how that feeling often contradicted what actually happened next. In almost every major move, my emotions—heavily influenced by media narratives—led me the wrong way. This time, I believe, is no different. Despite bearish sentiment and doomsday headlines, I see opportunity. Even if a recession is on the horizon—and I do believe it’s likely—the market has a way of pricing in fear before the real damage hits. That means the upside may start before the worst news becomes obvious. Before diving into my analysis and strategy, I recommend reading my privous publication, which is also linked to this publication Chart Analysis & Market Status: As anticipated, Bitcoin is currently retesting the capitulation price range that was first reached on February 28. Since then, volume has remained relatively low, while the Fear & Greed Index has started to slightly rise—indicating that panic selling may have already subsided. The price is also sitting around the 20-week EMA, a level that has historically acted as a strong support zone. This alignment suggests that bearish sentiment may already be priced in, and we could be at or near the bottom of the current cycle—regardless of the broader macro fears. My Current Strategy ? Position: I remain bullish at current levels. ? Exposure: 30% of my capital is already deployed. Bullish Scenarios Scenrio 1: (More Likely) If the market bounces in the next 1–2 weeks, then retests this same price range with a healthy pullback, I’ll deploy another 40% of my capital. From there, I’ll follow the "blue model" (my projected price path) all the way up until either my timing target or pricing target is hit—whichever comes first. I’ll keep the remaining 30% in reserve to adjust my average buy-in during unexpected market moves. Scenario 2: (Less likely) If Bitcoin loses the current support at the 20-week EMA, I’ll allocate 20% at the $71K–$72K range and remain bullish—as the broader macro structure stays intact— considring this price as Wyckoff Spring. Then I will eploying further 20% at around $80K when market bounces back considering it as Sign of Strength of current Re-Accumolation zone. I’ll keep the remaining 30% in reserve to adjust my average buy-in during unexpected market moves. Bearish Scenario: (Least Likely) If Bitcoin breaks below the FWB:73K level—the peak of the previous wave—I’ll deploy another 20% around the 50-week EMA (currently near GETTEX:64K ). This would invalidate the current bullish model, but my strategy adapts: my average entry would drop to ~$73K. In that case, I plan to sell on the next bounce that retests the 20-week EMA. I’ll still keep the remaining 30% in reserve to adjust my average buy-in during unexpected market moves. Final Thoughts: As I always say: This market is stochastic—not deterministic. You can’t plug in numbers and expect a fixed outcome. There is no perfect formula. That’s why a well-structured Plan B is essential for survival and success. Don't let headlines write your trades. Let the chart do the talking.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/wsANqI4h/ Hello,Traders! GBP-USD has hit a Wide horizontal demand Level around 1.2800 and We are seeing a bullish Rebound already so we Are locally bullish biased And we believe we will Be seeing a further move up Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
BTC/USD – Technisches Gann.. Update Nachdem der übergeordnete grüne Fächer als wichtiger Supportbereich definiert und mehrfach erfolgreich getestet wurde.. kam es beim vierten Test zum Bruch dieser zentralen Unterstützung - Dieser Bruch war markttechnisch entscheidend und leitete den aktuellen Abverkauf ein.. Im Anschluss daran konnte sich BTC an einem.. uns bereits bekannten Kreisbogen stabilisieren.. Diese Struktur drückte den Kurs nach oben und führte zu einer kurzfristigen Erholung.. zur Quadrantenbegrenzung bei 78.712 USD. Ein Tagesschluss oberhalb dieses Levels wäre aus charttechnischer Sicht ein bullisches Signal.. Es würde die Wahrscheinlichkeit erhöhen.. dass der Kurs in den kommenden Tagen den zuvor gebrochenen grünen Fächer von unten testet – ein klassisches Pullback-Szenario auf ehemalige Unterstützung.. die nun als Widerstand fungieren könnte.. Auf der Unterseite bleiben zwei Zonen im Fokus: 1. Der Schnittpunkt der Kreisbögen – eine geometrisch interessante und potenziell reaktionsstarke Zone.. 2. Der orangene Fächer im Bereich von 68.900 USD – eine weitere Schlüsselunterstützung.. die im Falle eines weiteren Rückgangs das nächste Kursziel darstellt.. Also: • Solange kein nachhaltiger Ausbruch über 78.712 USD gelingt.. bleibt Bitcoin technisch weiter unter Druck - Ein Tagesschluss oberhalb.. würde BTC in der Regel.. den grünen Fächer von unten testen.. • Bricht der Kurs hingegen erneut nach unten.. rücken die 69k.. und zuvor der Schnittpunkt der Kreisbögen ins Zentrum der Betrachtung..
EURUSD's expanding wedge continues to stretch like the universe—unstoppable and chaotic. If it holds, we could see a clean Head and Shoulders pattern forming in the coming days. The likely path? A drop back into the liquidity void left behind during the previous bullish surge. Watch for structure, traps, and signs the market’s prepping for its next big move.
Gold’s recent false break of the channel might be nearing its end as bullish momentum builds. While higher timeframes suggest more room to run, a bounce around the 3000 level could be the next key move. Two bullish scenarios are in play: either we see a breakout to new highs or price consolidates in the new lower timeframe range before launching higher. Here's what traders should watch next.
The gold 1-hour moving average crosses downwards and the short positions are arranged, and it continues to open downwards. So gold is now the home of the shorts. Gold rebounds or continues to be short. Gold is now in a short trend under the gap. Gold rebounds around 3050 and continues to be short. Trading ideas: short gold near 3050, stop loss 3060, target 3030
Reliance 1204 - Is at Phase D and good for accumulation. Target 1325
Ongoing Risks Support Gold’s Long-Term Bullish Outlook Despite recent market volatility, the drivers behind gold’s rally remain intact. Mohamed El-Erian raised U.S. recession odds to 50%, while Goldman Sachs raised theirs to 35%. The Fed has warned of slower growth and higher inflation due to tariffs, and gold's role as a hedge against these risks is vital. Focus on Upcoming Data Next week, key data will be in focus: the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, CPI report on Thursday, and consumer sentiment data on Friday. If CPI surprises to the upside or the FOMC minutes reveal a more dovish stance, gold could see renewed buying interest. Traders should view pullbacks as buying opportunities, as inflation, trade tensions, and recession risks continue to support gold. Technical Outlook If gold tests support at $3,000.28 and holds, it may attract new buyers. A break below could bring the $2,852.34 level into play. Shorting is risky, but if pursued, exit over $3,167.84 with objectives at $3,000.28, $2,852.34, and the 52-week moving average at $2,601.40.
NOW has been super bearish. See my last chart. I will be buying at $500 for a long-term hold. Im really hoping we get down to $500 for my entry.