Weather, Demand, Exports, Storage, Contract Rollover Natural gas pricing acted as predicted for the trading week. After rallying for the week over 12%, it hit resistance at the upper band of the BB. After selling my positions at the 3730 level I took my profits and entered a short position which I had plan to exited at 3590. I did hold my shorts over the weekend, placing a sell order before close on Friday. I entered another set of $4. 00 calls an hour after opening Sunday night, after the volatility settled down to aid pricing. I am predicting one more bounce higher for the week, before the weather turns for the last week of the month. I am expecting another run back up to 4000 sometime after the news of Polar Vortexes, freeze offs, production declines, historic LNG productions, and a very very large EIA report. Whooo, that’s a mouth full!!! I am expecting to exit my positions sometime around Thursday morning before the market opens in NY. But I am quite excited as things continue to line up for March, and possibly April. The video will discuss my beliefs and the information which I hope will verify, again. I will continue to watch support at the 9D SMA around the 3500 mark and begin to pay close attention at the 78.6% retracement lever around 3750. I am beginning to chart off the continuous contract since we are coming up to the last full week for the current contract. I prefer to trade off the current contract chart until that last week, on all the positions I trade. I predict an upward channel, trading between these levels until we have velocity below/above each of those prices. So, there should be a nice trading range for three days until selling begins in earnest for the contract roll over. This week will be down right frigid from the Rocky Mountain to the East Coast of the US, with special attention up to the Appalachian Mountain. Throw in the rumors, and rumors of a big East Coast super snow storm, and my mouth begins to water for freeze offs. Also, LNG production continues to edge to historic levels as the cold air aids in helping the physics behind compressing all that NG. Plus, Europe at low storage levels and an increase in Asian buying. Throw in historic February demand for heating, and we have a nice set up for next weeks EIA report. February is looking to be one of the top three supply withdrawal months in record, followed by January coming in at number 2. Rigg activity continues to stay at depressed rates, and this is setting up 2025 to be a very promising year for upward pricing. The talk and verification about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is continuing to evolve, which has lent itself to some of the coldest March’s in history past. Not to mention April! So, my belief is that we continue to draw in storage going into the shoulder season when April begins. Which the EIA is starting to assess in its weekly STEO report. They are predicting HH spot to average close to 3800 for the remainder of 2025! So, keep those shovels ready, and the heaters burning, because after next weeks moderation in US temps, I think the Ground Hog was right. Remember that the meteorology will again beat the models! It will get warm days 8-14. But I am going to look to enter the short and hold on until the models begin to see the cold returning around the end of next week. Next week will probably be a great weekend to hold onto longs over the weekend. Winter is sticking around. Keep it burning!
We are currently seeing a retracement in XRP/USD, approaching a critical Fair Value Gap (FVG) at $2.50, which could act as a key demand zone before a potential bullish move. This area aligns with a significant liquidity pool and offers a strong potential entry for long positions. ? $2.50 Fair Value Gap – Key Level for Support This area represents an imbalance that price might fill before resuming an uptrend. A strong reaction from this level would signal buyer interest, making it an ideal zone to look for confirmations of bullish momentum. ? Breakout & Retest of Resistance – Bullish Confirmation A successful break above the descending resistance trendline, followed by a retest and confirmation of support, would provide strong bullish confluence. This move could trigger an upside rally toward the next major Fair Value Gap at $3.00, which aligns with previous liquidity zones and historical resistance levels. ? Target: $3.00 Key Level If XRP reclaims this area and maintains bullish structure, we could see an extended move toward higher highs, with further price discovery beyond $3.00. ? Trading Plan: ✅ Watch for a reaction at $2.50 – ideal entry zone for longs ✅ Breakout and retest of the resistance line = strong bullish signal ✅ Target $3.00 FVG as the next major level __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like ? and leave a comment—I’d love to hear your thoughts! ? Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! ?✨
Welcome back, traders! Mr. Blue Ocean FX here, breaking down the latest price action on gold (XAUUSD) . Let’s dive straight into the technicals and see what the market is telling us. Market Overview Gold has been on a strong bullish run since December 30th, surging from the 2620 area all the way to 2942, marking an aggressive impulse move. However, last week, we saw signs of exhaustion, particularly with a rejection wick forming on February 10th, signaling potential downside pressure. Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily chart, price action printed a double top around 2929, followed by a strong bearish engulfing candle that closed on Friday. This indicates a potential momentum shift from buyers to sellers. We also placed a key level at 2881, marking the recent wick low. This level is crucial because if price breaks below it, it would confirm sellers stepping in with conviction. H4 Timeframe Analysis Scaling down to the 4-hour (H4) chart, we can see a clearer structure: • Price spiked high, retraced, and formed a higher low before another push up. • The latest move shows a break and retest pattern, where price broke structure and is now testing previous support as resistance. • While the H4 candle looks promising, we are waiting for a solid close to confirm the momentum shift before executing a trade. H1 Timeframe Execution Plan On the 1-hour (H1) chart, here’s our trade setup: 1. Waiting for a pullback after the breakdown. 2. Looking for price to form a lower high at 2896. 3. Entry confirmation comes with strong bearish volume and a small retest. 4. Short position at 2896, with a stop loss just above the 2906.55 wick high. 5. First target: Recent lows near 2881 for a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio (RRR). 6. If price breaks below the daily low, we could see further downside continuation. Final Thoughts This setup is in play, and we are watching how price reacts at key levels. If the market confirms our bias, this could be a solid high-probability short trade. ? If you found this breakdown valuable, don’t forget to: ✅ Like & Subscribe for more trade ideas ✅ Boost the post to help the community ✅ Share with a fellow trader Let’s catch these pips! See you in the next breakdown. Boom! ??
While the UK is evading US tariffs for now, its economy continues to face a somewhat undecided future, with taxes on business set to increase in April and a lingering drag from the elevated interest rates. However, this week’s focus shifts to a rather busy slate of economic data in the UK. Regarding tier-1 metrics, I will largely focus on Tuesday’s employment figures for December 2024 and the January CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) report on Wednesday. The data comes on the heels of last week’s better-than-expected GDP (Gross Domestic Product) numbers for December 2024. BoE: ‘Gradual and Careful’ Approach You will recall that the Bank of England (BoE) recently cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50% – which did not raise too many eyebrows – and the BoE Governor signalled a ‘gradual and careful’ approach to easing policy. However, the 7-2 MPC vote split (Monetary Policy Committee) caused a stir. BoE member Catherine Mann – a known hawk – joined Swati Dhingra (dove) and voted to cut the Bank Rate by 50 bps. The central bank also released updated quarterly projections revealing an upward revision to inflation and weaker GDP, and it forecasted that the Bank Rate would remain higher for longer. Inflation is expected to rise by 2.8% in Q1 25 (versus 2.4% in the previous forecast) and increase by 3.0% in Q1 26 (versus 2.6% in the previous forecast), followed by inflation cooling back to the BoE’s 2.0% target in 2027. GDP growth is now expected to grow by 0.4% in Q1 25 (down from 1.4% in the prior forecasts), with economic activity predicted to grow by 1.5% in Q1 26. The BoE also estimates that the Bank Rate will remain around 4.5% in Q1 25 but likely fall to 4.2% in Q1 26, against previous forecasts for 3.7%. Markets are currently pricing another 57 bps worth of cuts this year (little more than two rate cuts). UK Employment and Inflation Data Eyed UK employment numbers will be released tomorrow at 7:00 am GMT and are expected to show unemployment ticked higher to 4.5% between October to December 2024, up from 4.4% in November. In terms of wages, both regular pay and pay that includes bonuses are forecast to increase by 5.9% on a year-on-year basis (YY), up from 5.6%. However, while market participants will widely watch the jobs report, which can prove market moving, it is essential to remember the validity of the survey’s data remains in question. Wednesday welcomes the January CPI inflation data at 7:00 am GMT, which is expected to reveal increasing price pressures across key measures. Headline YY CPI inflation is forecast to increase by 2.8% (from December’s reading of 2.5% ), consistent with the BoE’s updated forecasts. The current estimate range is between a high of 2.9% and a low of 2.4%. YY core CPI inflation – excluding volatile food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco items – is estimated to have increased by 3.7%, up from 3.2% in December (estimate range between 3.8% and 3.3%). Regarding services inflation, the YY print is anticipated to rise by nearly a whole percentage point to 5.2%, compared to December’s reading of 4.4%. A rise in price pressures, particularly data that meets or exceeds upper estimates, could prompt investors to pare back rate-cut bets this year. This also places the central bank in a somewhat difficult position, given that it not only reduced the Bank Rate last week, but two MPC members also voted for an outsized 50 bp reduction. GBP/USD: Monthly Bullish Engulfing Formation? The monthly chart shows price is on the verge of pencilling in a bullish engulfing pattern from support at US$1.2173 (textbook engulfing patterns focus on the real bodies, not the upper and lower shadows). Monthly resistance demands attention overhead at US$1.2715, with a break of this barrier likely paving the way north for further outperformance towards another layer of monthly resistance coming in at US$1.3111. Interestingly, buyers and sellers are squaring off at resistance from US$1.2608 on the daily timeframe. The supply area directly to the left of current price (red area) was weak (as noted in a previous piece I posted), with technical buying gathering steam from retesting trendline resistance-turned-support, extended from the high of US$1.3428. If inflation comes in broadly higher than expected, this will likely underpin a bid in the GBP/USD (British pound versus the US dollar) and perhaps pull the currency pair beyond current daily resistance towards the monthly resistance mentioned above at US$1.2715, closely shadowed by another layer of daily resistance at US$1.2752. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Hi dear friends SL and TP is in chart ? Don't Forget Money management
great consolidation, with high volume accumulating each dip, expect a move higher soon should 3x from here
EURNZD showed strong bearish trend and now on Daily TF its rang bound but at 1HTF we can see some bullish trend due to bullish divergence at RSI.
?SeekingPips? has just learned that I am able to make CHART ANALYSIS VIDEOS in LIVE market conditions on this platform.? (Yes I am a bit of a DINOSAUR ?) ?Marking up charts and sharing is great but ANALYSING & marking up charts in live market conditions is a different beast.✅️ ⚠️That is one way to filter the TRADERS from the MARKETERS. ?SeekingPips? focus is always on the things that matter most I'm really not interested in the FANCY STUFF & NEITHER SHOULD YOU BE. ⭐️I ALWAYS preach TIME over PRICE showing it in real-time is like magic when you see it for yourself⭐️ ?I am happy to do so maybe twice a week if the interest is there.? ✅️I'm willing to show the practice what I preach in video format.✅️ ℹ️ I need to see the interaction on my post and chart shares to know that it will be worth the time and effort. ?SeekingPips? is still working his way around some of the great tools for use on this platform, I am still being advised every week by some of my followers of some of the tools here on TradingView. Would shared VIDEOS be appreciated here?❔️
strong resistance at 45082 level. focus on this level crucial level for dow jones
After the previous buy signal in September there has been two soft sell signals on the three day timeframe. Up almost 50% since the last buy signal now is a good time according to the TDR indicator to take some profit. These soft sell signals only signal to off load a small percentage of the position, between 5% and 10% based on your levels of risk.