There is a correction taking place in the US dollar uptrend. Do we trade against the prevailing trend, or sit on our hands and do nothing? To fade or not to trade, that is the question. On a surface level, the current environment is a trading range - following a long downtrend. When a strong major trend has been in place for around 3 months - sometimes sooner - sometimes later (we have observed 3 months as a good benchmark) something has to change - either there is a significant correction or the trend reverses. The challenge lies in distinguishing between the two. Reacting too early risks fighting momentum, while reacting too late means missing an opportunity. After years of trading, I’ve realised the goal is not to guess – but to follow a structured trading system that tilts the odds in our favor. The system doesn’t work every time of course but it gives you a way to approach the market. Let me outline now - a system using Fractals & the 30-Week Moving Average to help you decide which way to trade the market 1. Identify the Primary Trend Use the 30-week moving average (30 WMA) as the trend filter. Uptrend: Price is consistently above the 30 WMA, and the slope is rising. Downtrend: Price is consistently below the 30 WMA, and the slope is falling. A strong trend remains in place as long as price respects the 30 WMA. A violation suggests a shift is possible. 2. Look for Fractal Confirmation of a Shift In an uptrend, a higher low followed by a higher high confirms continuation. In a downtrend, a lower high followed by a lower low confirms continuation. * The key fractal to watch for a potential bottom after a downtrend – is the first higher low after a downtrend correction that made a higher high (potential bottom) * The key fractal to watch for a potential top after an uptrend – is the first lower high after an uptrend correction that made a lower low (potential reversal) So, how about what’s happening now? https://www.tradingview.com/x/AkAEtUsj/ The weekly chart shows a base has formed at 1.02 in EUR/USD. Price closed last week right at support-turned-resistance around 1.05. A ‘higher high’ was formed followed by a ‘higher low’ as demonstrated by the green and red fractals accordingly. However, the price remains below the 30-week moving average. We can see the setup better on the daily chart as a shallow downtrend line. https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZycN8CrW/ The pattern beneath the trendline is a messy inverse head and shoulders. As such, should the trendline break to the upside it is a bullish signal. And if the trendline holds, it signals the trend is still just consolidating before a continuation lower. We think there’s a good chance this trendline breaks given the alignment of the weekly fractals. So fade the downtrend or ignore the move upwards? To answer that it helps to think about the next step. If the price does break higher, how high is it likely to go? There is resistance at 1.06 from the late November and December peaks. Then the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 30-week moving average come in around 1.07. The reason fading a trend has a lower probability of success vs trading with the trend is because there is so much nearby resistance (in the case of trading a bottom). You can absolutely fade this trend but our experience tells us the price often fails at a nearby resistance level, capping the risk:reward potential on long positions- and simultaneously offering a nice opportunity for short positions. But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think? Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request! Drop us a comment! cheers! Jasper
Rejected this zone again and starting to move down at this point. See if it does drop below $2.50, would of thought it'd of be back above $3 already.
It seems like XRP could go back to a Dollar per coin and ill be looking to purchase more at this point. the FVG I've located would have been on a monthly timeframe and there also seems to be a inverse FVG looking to make a move downwards
Hi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. Recently, the price reached a support level that coincided with the support zone, followed by a correction. After this, BTC made a strong upward move to the resistance level, which also aligned with the resistance zone, breaking the support level and eventually surpassing the 102000 mark. The price then corrected back to this level, before rising to the trend line and hitting a new all-time high of 109300 points, after which it began to decline. For a while, the price traded near the 102000 level and even broke it briefly, falling below, but soon reversed and rose back to the trend line. Afterward, the price dropped to the support zone, breaking through the resistance level, and then quickly rebounded, triggering a false breakout of the 95300 level. Since then, the price has been trading within a consolidation range, and it continues to do so up to this day. I expect that BTCUSDT will decline to the support level before starting to rise again toward the trend line, slightly breaking out of the range. Therefore, my goal is set at 100800 points, which aligns with this trend line. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
In this analysis, the GBP/AUD pair is trading within an ascending channel that has been confirmed by multiple bounces off both resistance and support levels. The price is currently undergoing a downward correction after previously reaching the resistance area around 2.02. Based on the historical pattern within this channel, there is a possibility that the price will decline further toward the support area around 1.94 before rebounding back upward. The price structure shows strong reactions each time the price touches the support channel (marked by green arrows) and the resistance channel (marked by red arrows). This indicates that the market still respects this uptrend structure. Therefore, the most probable scenario is to wait for the price to approach the support area before considering a buy position. The potential target for the next upward move is a return to the resistance channel around 2.02. However, if the price successfully breaks below the 1.94 support level with high volume, this bullish scenario may become invalid.
If CRYPTOCAP:ETH has truly bottomed here...and it's looking like it has against BTC (ETH/BTC) We could be on the verge of something big ? This level acted as a bottom in both the 2017 and 2021 bull runs, setting the stage for a parabolic altseason. Will history repeat? ?
I really like the divergences on the new low on more than one occasion and an encompassing divergence between the first low and the very last one. This is a common set piece in these type of complex corrections, where the Elliott count proves to be problematic. I am confident of a high chance of a profitable long, because almost simultaneously there is a flip on BB%PCT, VZO and Stoch/RSI, plus a MIDAS line course. I used Fibonacci clusters to paint some stationary goals.
Downtrend Reversal in Sight? #ZEC has been in a consistent downtrend and is currently at its lowest point. But the charts are telling a different story now. Key Technical Highlights: Harmonic Pattern: A clear Bullish Bat pattern has formed on the 1-day timeframe, signaling potential for reversal. Bullish Divergence: We’re seeing a subtle bullish divergence, adding weight to the case for a potential trend reversal. Resistance Break: The key confirmation level lies at 45.85. A break above this level will be our primary signal to go long. What Does This Mean? The technical indicators are aligning for a potential upward shift, but patience is key. We’ll need to wait for the resistance to break before entering the trade. Once confirmed, we’ll be looking for a bullish entry at 45.85 with careful risk management in place. Join the Discussion! What’s your take on #ZEC? Are you seeing the same potential reversal, or is it too early to call? Have you traded harmonic patterns before? Share your experiences below!
Look for longs at latest support around 149.000 ST Under lows. Primary TP at falling trendline. Secondary TP at last highs If price decides to continue lower look for retest at 149.00 and further drop towards 140.00
Hello everyone The current real-time gold price is $2902.77/ounce, with an increase or decrease of 23.4 and an increase or decrease of 0.81% According to market surveys, 71% of analysts predict that the price of gold will continue to rise this week, 14% of analysts predict that it will fall, and 15% of analysts believe that the price of gold will remain stable, but gold has continued to rise over the past seven weeks, and David predicts that it will continue to rise. Analysis factors: The uncertainty of the Trump administration's policies, such as tariff increases and geopolitical conflicts, will promote safe-haven demand and support gold. In addition, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations coexist with inflation risks. If the US fiscal expansion exacerbates inflation, the opportunity cost of holding gold will be significantly reduced, which is conducive to the rise in gold prices GOLD real-time trading opportunities, the current support below is around 2881-2885, and the upper pressure is around 2915-2920. If it breaks through $2900, you can add more positions If you agree with my analysis, please continue to pay attention, and I will share my views for free later-(David) TFEX:GO1! OANDA:XAUUSD