Implied IV for options is low, and unless somthing big happens I think SPY will continue to consolidate to $573 Close of Play today.
A rough idea how this could play till mid April. I do expect unusually disturbing readings on early-warning indexes and ISM since Trump inauguration to finally show up in metrics such as unemployment and CPI. This could weight strongly on the US Dollar. If basic axioms hold true, we're about to witness a major change in perception on the global reserve currency.
Bitcoin is currently approaching a crucial resistance zone around the $91,000 level, which appears to be acting as a pivotal determinant of market sentiment. 1. **Below $91,000: Bearish Bias** If Bitcoin struggles to break above this resistance zone and closes below $91,000 consistently, the technical outlook remains bearish. Multiple rejections at this level in the past indicate this area as a strong supply zone, with sellers defending it. Such a development would likely confirm continued bearish pressure, potentially pushing prices lower and extending the current downtrend. 2. **Above $91,000: Bullish Reversal** A sustainable breakout above $91,000, accompanied by multiple daily closes in this range or beyond, would signal a potential return to bullish momentum. Breaching this resistance zone would imply that buyers have regained control, likely triggering renewed interest and optimism in the market. This could mark the resumption of a bull market and lead to further upside exploration. **Key Observations from the Chart:** - Bitcoin's attempt to reclaim the highlighted resistance zone appears to have faced challenges previously, indicating the significance of this level. - The current price point lies just below the critical range, reflecting indecision and a balance between bullish and bearish forces. Traders might await confirmation of directionality before positioning aggressively. - The yellow zone acts as a transition zone for sentiment, with "below = bearish" and "above = bullish." Price action near this level will be critical in shaping market expectations moving forward. **Conclusion:** Bitcoin is trading at a tipping point. A decisive move above or rejection from the $91,000 zone will define its near-term trajectory. The market's focus in the coming days will likely revolve around this key resistance, as its breach or defense carries strong implications for investors and traders alike.
Overview of Market Structure The EUR/USD pair has been experiencing strong bullish momentum over the past few weeks, leading to the creation of an extended bullish leg. However, as with most impulsive moves, the market has left behind imbalances—price inefficiencies where the market moved too quickly without sufficient pullbacks to ensure order fulfillment. Recently, we have observed a break in bullish structure, signaling a potential shift in momentum. This break suggests that the market may now be in a phase where it seeks to rebalance inefficiencies before deciding its next directional move. My expectation is that price will first retrace to fill the imbalance zone above, which acts as a supply area, before reversing and targeting the imbalance zones left behind in the bullish rally. Key Resistance and Market Rejections A crucial area in this setup is the strong resistance zone (marked in red), which has been rejected twice. Each time price attempted to break through, sellers stepped in, pushing price lower. This level serves as a significant supply zone where institutions may have unfilled sell orders. With this in mind, the most logical movement for price would be to return to this area, collect liquidity, and then initiate a bearish move. Imbalance Zones and Market Efficiency Imbalance zones are areas on the chart where price has moved too quickly, leaving behind inefficiencies. These areas often get revisited later as price seeks to rebalance liquidity. There are two key imbalance zones in this setup: The imbalance zone above the current price (first target) – This is the area where price is expected to retrace before reversing. The imbalance zone below the current price (final target) – Created during the rapid bullish rally, this area remains untested and is likely to be filled once bearish momentum takes over. These zones are high-probability areas where price is expected to react due to unfulfilled institutional orders. Break of Bullish Structure & Shift in Momentum A key element of this trade idea is the break in bullish structure. This break was confirmed when a bearish candle closed below the previous higher low, invalidating the uptrend. This structural shift suggests that bulls may be losing control, and a deeper retracement is likely before any potential continuation of the overall trend. The break also increases the probability of the lower imbalance zone getting filled before the market makes its next major move. Trade Execution Plan Step 1: Identify the Optimal Short Entry Wait for price to fill the imbalance zone above. Once confirmation is seen, a short position can be entered. Step 2: Bearish Move to Lower Imbalance Zone After rejection from the supply zone, expect price to break lower. The target for this move will be the imbalance left behind in the bullish rally. Trailing stop-loss can be used to maximize profits while reducing risk. Why This Trade Has High Probability Market Favors Liquidity Grabs – The imbalance zone above is a likely liquidity grab area before the bearish move. Break in Market Structure – The recent bearish structure break increases the probability of downside continuation. Historical Resistance Rejection – The resistance zone above has already rejected price twice, indicating strong selling pressure. Imbalance Fill Below – Price tends to fill inefficiencies left behind in fast-moving markets, making the lower imbalance zone a logical target. Risk Management Considerations Stop-loss should be placed slightly above the imbalance zone above to protect against unexpected breakouts. Take-profit should be set at the lower imbalance zone, allowing for a strong risk-to-reward ratio. If price breaks past the resistance zone above without rejection, it would invalidate this bearish setup, signaling a reevaluation of market conditions. Conclusion This trade idea is based on a smart money concept (SMC) approach, focusing on liquidity grabs, imbalance fills, and structural shifts. If the market follows the expected path, we could see price first push up to fill the imbalance above, reject from that level, and then begin a bearish move to fill the imbalance left in the previous bullish rally. By patiently waiting for price to reach key areas and confirming rejections, this trade setup provides a high-probability opportunity with a strong risk-to-reward ratio. __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like ? and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! ? Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! ?
? Analysis Overview: Gold is currently showing strong bearish momentum, indicating a potential downward move. With resistance observed near 3019, the price has formed lower highs and is struggling to break key levels. This presents a prime opportunity for a sell trade. ? Strategy Details: ✅ Entry: Enter a sell position near 3007 once confirmation appears (e.g., rejection candles or bearish patterns). ✅ Stop Loss: Place your stop loss above 3019 to manage risk effectively. ✅ Target: The expected target is 2980, aligning with the next key support zone. ⚠️ Risk Management Tip: Ensure proper lot sizing and risk-reward ratio. Patience and discipline are key! ? Trade Smart, Trade Safe!
Proof of Liquidity live today. Feel like this one re-rates over coming weeks. Needs above $9 to breakout of its initial base. Notice how this ranged sideways w/ volume drying up in the base, while the rest of the altcoin market fell off a cliff
The short selling strategy for USOIL has already been implemented. Next, we just need to wait until it reaches our TP target. Currently, my account balance has grown from an initial $40,000 to $900,000 in profits. I will share accurate trading signals every day, and you have the option to copy my trading orders. If you're interested in getting these signals, you can click on the link below this article.
With major financial institutions expecting the gold price to sear up to 3,100 - 3,200 USD per 1 oz., I personally think that is a very optimistic scenario. Considering both geopolitical and economical factors that are looming ahead, the most likely nearest stop seems to be around 3,600-3,800 USD / oz. As the investors brace for volatile and uncertain times.
Please do not trade as my analysis might be incorrect. I encourage constructive feedback. If you did trade, make sure the drawing is respected, don't use exact values as they might differ from a broker to another. Explanations: MIN - last minimum point MAX - last maximum point BOS - break of structure SMS - shift in market structure SL - stop loss TP - take profit RR - risk reward OB - order block OB (15) - order block (based on M15) timeframe
The EURUSD pair continues to trade within a Bullish Megaphone pattern and is about to complete today the 4th straight red 1D candle. This is technically a top formation as the 1D RSI went from overbought (above 70.00) to below 60.00. Technically a downtrend gets confirmed when the price breaks below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) so until it does, the probability for another short-term bounce there isn't small. This is what took place in September 2024. Once the 1D MA50 breaks though, we expect a test of Support 1 at 1.03650, as it happened on October 23 2024. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE ?, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE ? and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ?????? ? ? ? ? ? ?