Hello traders, This week's Thursday tip: On Thursday, the Federal Reserve's important interest rate decision was finalized. Focus on the situation of profit-taking in gold at high levels, looking for short-term short-selling opportunities in gold on the 1-hour chart. On the 4-hour chart, there is a clear RSI divergence, indicating that gold is oversold and there is a need for a short-term pullback. On the 1-hour chart, wait for a reversal confirmation signal on the 4-hour chart, then look for an entry signal on the 1-hour chart to short gold! **TP1:** 3025 **TP2:** 3005 **TP3:** 2989 On Friday during the Asian early session, after 9:30 AM, gold experienced a pullback due to the divergence on the 4-hour chart, reaching the first target of 3025. It is currently recommended to reduce positions and continue holding. On the 4-hour chart, consider that gold may undergo a corrective adjustment in the form of an expanding triangle. Wait for the reversal confirmation signal on the 4-hour chart before looking for new entry opportunities on the 1-hour chart to short gold. The targets for new positions remain unchanged: **TP1:** 3025 **TP2:** 3005 **TP3:** 2989 On the daily chart, the closing of gold on Friday can provide direct guidance for next week's trend. If gold forms a new daily reversal signal on the daily chart, trading in the first half of next week can proceed with minimal interference, trending downward. If gold experiences significant fluctuations during tonight's US session, it is recommended to wait until next Monday to enter, still opting for a strategy of buying high and selling low in the fluctuating market at the top of gold. ** ** **I. Three Major Drivers of Gold Fluctuations** 1. **Trump's "Face-Changing Game"** - **Tariff Bomb:** Trump announced plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on countries like China (effective April 2), which is like throwing a bomb into the market. Concerns about a trade war resurfacing, rising business costs, and potential economic recession emerged. - **Interest Rate Cut Talk:** Previously, Trump said, "There's no rush to cut rates," but now he has changed his tune to "We need to cut rates quickly to save the economy." The market reacted negatively: Oh no, the economy might be in big trouble! Consequently, funds shifted from the stock market to gold for safety. 2. **"Nuclear Option Expiration" in the Options Market** - **$4.7 Trillion Bet Expiration:** This amount is equivalent to the total market value of the top 20 companies globally, and it’s settling today. - **Market Manipulation:** Large institutions (market makers) have an incentive to push the S&P 500 index near 5800 points, as this level maximizes their options contracts' profitability. Gold and U.S. stocks often move inversely; when the stock market is manipulated, gold may suddenly surge or plummet. 3. **"Hawkish Shock" from the Federal Reserve** - **Officials Changing Stance:** Initially, there was one dissenting voice against an interest rate cut; now it has turned into four. - **Gold's Calculation:** A delayed rate cut → stronger dollar → temporary pressure on gold; but poor economic conditions → panic sentiment → gold benefits. These two forces are in conflict. --- **II. How Will Gold Move Tonight?** **Key Levels:** - **Floor Price:** $3034 (If it falls below this, it may continue to drop) - **Ceiling Price:** $3056 (If it breaks above this, it may surge to $3080) **Trading Suggestions:** 1. **Watch and Wait Mode:** The period between 2 PM and 4 PM (Eastern Time) will see the most volatility, so avoid making hasty moves. 2. **Buy in Batches:** If it drops to around $3040, buy 1/3 of your position; add more if it breaks above $3060. 3. **Exit Signal:** If the U.S. stock market suddenly spikes (especially if the S&P approaches 5800), gold could drop by 2% instantly. If you prefer not to stay up late, you can skip trading tonight, maintain a flat position, and look for opportunities on Monday! --- **III. Grandpa Munger's Survival Guide** - **Being Flat is a Superpower:** Just like in poker, if you find your hand is bad, fold and don’t call. - **Wait for Clear Signals:** Gold is currently in a "Schrödinger's state" (it could rise or fall); it’s better to wait for it to break above $3056 or drop below $3034 before taking action. - **Historical Lesson:** On the options expiration day in September 2023, gold fluctuated by $100 in one day, leading to numerous liquidations. Today may very well replicate that scenario. GOOD LUCK! LESS IS MORE!
The three tracks of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands have shrunk severely, and the current range is compressed in the 3056-3012 range. As time goes by, the range will continue to shrink. The short-term support middle track and the MA30 moving average correspond to the 3034-3020 line. The 4-hour indicator macd has a high-level dead cross and runs with large volume. The dynamic indicator double lines are glued together and flat, indicating that there are signs of further decline in the 4-hour period. Pay attention to the suppression of the 3042-45 line in the short term. The hourly macd dead cross is initially established, and the dynamic indicator sto is quickly repaired downward, indicating that the price shock is weak. At present, pay attention to the resistance of 3042-48 above. In summary: Pay attention to the support of the 3025 line below during the day, and pay attention to the suppression of the 3057 line above. Combined with the shrinking of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, the short-term price remains in the range of 3025-3053. The short-term resistance is at the 3042-45 line. Resistance: $3,045; $3,079; $3,100; $3,108 Support: $3,018; $3,000; $2,974; $2,956
GBP/USD Analysis: Pair Fails to Hold Above Psychological Level As shown in today’s GBP/USD chart, the pair failed to maintain its position above the psychological level of 1.3000 USD per pound, where it had reached its highest point since early 2025. The decline followed recent central bank decisions and statements, with both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged. On one side, the Bank of England: → Warned of inflation risks, partly driven by external factors such as US trade tariffs. → Indicated a potential rate cut in the coming months. On the other hand, the US dollar strengthened on Thursday after the Federal Reserve signalled reluctance to rush further rate cuts this year, despite uncertainties surrounding US tariffs. These statements highlighted the challenges market participants face in assessing the risks posed by tariffs on global trade. https://www.tradingview.com/x/0ZSseqJ6/ Technical Analysis of GBP/USD In March, the pound followed an upward trend against the US dollar, forming an ascending channel (marked in blue). However, once the price moved above the key 1.3000 level, the upper boundary of the channel appeared out of reach—possibly signalling weakening buying momentum. As a result, the price broke below the lower boundary of the channel, which has now shown signs of resistance (indicated by an arrow). If bearish pressure persists, the price could fall towards the dotted trendline below the channel, at a distance equal to its height. Additionally, a test of the previous local low around 1.2911 cannot be ruled out. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
The S&P500 is grinding this up trend channel since the end of 2023. After the latest correction, now let's see how long will it take to enter back the channel or will we? What are your thoughts?
?Gold prices formed a temporary top at 3057 in the early trading. The daily line closed with a negative cross star (Spinning Top), indicating that the long and short forces are fighting fiercely in the key resistance area (3050). The MACD indicator showed a top divergence signal. The RSI (14) turned downward in the overbought area (70+). If the closing price today falls below the 5-day moving average (currently at 3028), it will confirm the short-term correction trend. ?From the 4-hour chart, three consecutive K-line highs moved down (3057→3045→3037), forming a descending flag prototype. The Bollinger Band opening narrowed (bandwidth
Silver hovered near $33.20 on Friday morning after two consecutive sessions of decline. The recent upward momentum, initially fueled by China’s stimulus measures, has temporarily stalled. Nevertheless, the potential for further gains remains intact amid persistent uncertainty surrounding former President Trump’s tariff policies and escalating geopolitical risks. In addition, the Federal Reserve’s soft approach to interest rates, even if temporary, continues to support interest in non-yielding assets like silver. If silver breaks above $33.75, the next resistance levels are $34.05 and $34.85. On the downside, support is at $33.10, with further levels at $32.50 and $32.15 if selling pressure increases.
Alright! Let's break down the chart analysis. ? ? Chart Overview: Pair: XAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar) Timeframe: 1-hour (H1) Price Level: Current price at $3,030.44 Target Point: $3,063.97 ? Key Observations: Supply and Demand Zones: The highlighted blue zones suggest resistance (supply) where price was rejected twice (blue arrows). The larger gray zones below indicate potential demand/support. Double Top Formation: The double blue arrows point to a possible double-top pattern, hinting at a bearish reversal. However, the price hasn't strongly broken below the neckline yet. Scenario Analysis: Bullish Scenario: If the price holds the current demand zone and breaks above the immediate resistance, we could see a rally towards the target of $3,063.97. ?? Bearish Scenario: If it fails to hold the support zone, it may drop to the lower demand area around $3,000. ? ? Conclusion: Entry Idea: Long above the supply zone break with a target of $3,063.97. Stop Loss: Below the current demand zone at around $3,020. Risk Management: Watch for strong price action before entering.
USDCAD is presenting a promising buy opportunity! Take-profit target TP1: 1.4402. Keep a close eye and get ready to ride this upward wave. Let’s profit from the market together!
? XAUUSD Market Breakdown Gold (XAUUSD) has broken its ascending channel and completed a retracement near the 50 EMA, signaling a bearish move. The RSI is dropping below 40, confirming downside momentum. https://www.tradingview.com/x/7puHUK9a/ On the 15-minute timeframe, a Head & Shoulders pattern has formed, indicating a potential trend reversal. ? Technical Target Levels: - 3000 - 2982 - 2928 - 2883 ? Like, comment, and follow to support our growing community! Your support means the world to me. ?
In the early stages of the European session on Friday, GBP/USD is struggling to maintain its footing, trading below the 1.2925 mark as I compose this article. The pair faces pressure from a robust demand for the US dollar amid a backdrop of cautiousness from the Federal Reserve and prevailing economic uncertainties. This selling pressure persists despite the Bank of England's recent hawkish stance. As market participants await insights from Federal Reserve officials as well as a speech from US President Trump in the Oval Office, attention is heightened. From a technical perspective, the currency pair has entered a supply zone, prompting expectations for a potential reversal and the commencement of a bearish trend. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.