With a strong rebound anticipated in SPX500, we expect UVXY to decline towards the $18.50 area before a major reversal back to $30. Key levels to watch—stay sharp! ??
Hello traders. As per my previous analysis, I took a sell from the red line and closed 75% of the trade at my 1st take profit. I then managed to grab another trade from the bottom, marked by the green line. I have already closed 75% of the trade's profit after 40 pips and now my SL is at my entry point and my runner, the remaining 25% of the trade, is still running. Unbelieveable day. Big G gets my thanks. 2 trades, nice scalp day. Happy Tuesday
boost and follow for more! ❤️? Tesla is finally breaking its downtrend it entered at the start of the year, it also had a bullish resistance = support bounce after the initial breakout! I think we may rally to my 300-336-376 short term term targets from here ?
Lower Highs in the purple box and a clear break of trend below the 200D EMA. For future reference...
Originally published on 3/31/25 in The Millegan Memo ALL ABOARD THE VALUE TRAIN: WHY NASDAQ:RAIL MIGHT BE HEADED NORTH - FREIGHTCAR AMERICA Freightcar America continues to deliver on operational results. Freightcar America, which despite the name has no actual manufacturing operations in the US, reported its four quarter and full year 2024 earnings results earlier this March. Freightcar recently completed expansion and capital investment into its railcar manufacturing facility at Castaños in northern Mexico. With a capacity for around 5,000 units per year and potential capacity of upwards of 6,000 if the situation demanded it, and being located physically close to steel plants that provide the facility with low-cost raw materials in addition to lower-cost Mexican labor, Railcar has positioned itself as a behemoth in the North American railcar sector, but not without taking some substantial risk along the way. Freightcar began the journey to its current facility after winding down its operations in the US back in 2021, and spent several years with next to no revenues as it built a funding bridge out of a combination of equity, warrants, and creative financing from funds and individuals to get the Castaños facility fully built. Now that the facility is finished, the company is operationally profitable with healthy 15.3% gross margins, and begins the process of fully cleaning up its balance sheet of various equity instruments and refinancing of higher-interest notes and debt into longer-term dollar-denominated facilities. For instance, the company just announced the opening of a $35 million line of credit through Bank of America, in addition to refinancing its preferred shares, along with a non-dilutive cashless exercise of outstanding warrants held by PIMCO. Competitive among manufacturers and insensitive to tariffs. Despite growing tariff charges levied on US importers by the Trump administration, rail cars are relatively insensitive to foreign import sales taxes. The US itself, though it is a large market, also only has freight car producers with capacity numbering in the hundreds per year compared to RAIL’s production of thousands, and what capacity exists domestically in the US is typically high-cost and primarily concentrated in specialty orders. This should mean that tariffs as they currently exist will have negligible short-run impacts on freight car orders for Mexican-produced stock. In addition to this, the US market is highly dependent on its overland rail cargo network and cannot simply stop buying railcars, even in the event of a slowdown, meaning that the company already has gained and expects to continue to gain market share from competing manufacturers, who are mostly also located in Mexico. Finally, freight car manufacturers act as a sort of middleman in the land-based rail cargo shipping industry, meaning that their profit margins are largely dependent on overall freight car consumption volumes, with the railroads that consume the cars tending to bear the higher end costs of tariffs, which they then pass on to their customers. In the past, freight car orders have remained relatively reliable even in cases where the actual materials being shipped by the railroads, such as steel and coal, have fluctuated wildly in price, in part due to the proportion of orders driven by predictable rail car replacement schedules. Coupled with general capital flight to safety in the market, Freightcar America’s pricing has been affected by confusing messaging resulting from non-cash liabilities still present on the books from their long term transition and ramp up to Mexican production. What remains clear is that, not only are they the lowest cost producer, but they are eating market share from their competitors with additional capacity available on-demand. With their operational ramp-up in capex now over, the company consistently operationally profitable, and the company clearing their balance sheet of non-cash warrant liabilities from PIMCO coming off the books, we expect the balance sheet outlook to become much simplified in coming quarters. In our view based on our rigorous fundamental and technical analysis, this stock, currently trading around $5.53, is easily a $30-40 stock long term with the risks of transition having virtually evaporated. Needless to say - RAIL would seem to be a gem thrown out with the trash during this period of negative market sentiment. Please note that the Woodworth Contrarian Stock & Bond Fund, LP, of which the Millegan Brothers manage and are invested in, currently holds a position of RAIL as of the publication date of this article. DEEP ROOTS. STUBBORN GROWTH. OREGON-BASED. Now is a great time to diversify your portfolio with an investment into an award-winning fund. Call us or visit our website to inquire on an investment today in the Woodworth Contrarian Fund as an accredited investor. (800) 651-1996 - info@woodworth.fund - www.Woodworth.Fund Best Value-Based Fund '22 | Best Contrarian Managers '22, ‘23, ‘24 | Best Opportunistic High Yield Hedge Fund ‘24 Contrarian Value-Based Hedge Fund of the Year for ‘22/23 & ‘23/’24 About the Managers: Brothers Drew Millegan and Quinn Millegan manage the Woodworth Contrarian Stock & Bond Fund, a hedge fund based in McMinnville, Oregon. They grew up in the finance world, and specialize in contrarian investment strategies in the US Public and Private markets. Something missing from your portfolio may be a diversification into the Woodworth Contrarian Fund for accredited investors. Now is a great time to diversify your portfolio with an investment into a multi-award-winning fund. An exposure to a value-based contrarian strategy is a unique opportunity for your long term capital that you’re seeking aggressive returns for. With eight years of the Woodworth Fund under management, the Millegan Brothers are trained stock-pickers and experienced venture capital investors with a proven track record. Give us a call today to discuss a liquid investment with independent administration and independently audited monthly statements and a personal relationship.
Originally published on 3/31/25 in The Millegan Memo KOHL’S HARD CASH: DIGGING UP VALUE IN NYSE:KSS Kohl’s continues to drop despite a relatively rosy reported earnings and balance sheet. In what appears to be an overreaction to broader uncertainties in the US economy, consumer sentiment, and possibly disappointing performance of certain internal segments, Kohl’s has declined over 30% since it reported earnings earlier this month. The name is now trading around 65% below the price it was at just a year ago. Total market capitalization has dropped solidly below $1 Billion, despite nearly $8 Billion in real estate assets and long-term debt of just over $1.1 Billion. The company, which continues to report sizable free cash flows and declining debt, is now effectively priced as though the street expects it to go bankrupt. Kohl’s also announced a cut to their dividend and downward revisions to forward expectations for full-year 2025. Won’t somebody buy my dollar for a quarter? The recent drop in price mirrors drops in other retail names in response to tariff threats and recession expectations, however Kohl’s in particular is now far below even its liquidation value. Speculation of bankruptcy seems poorly supported at best, and investors may be actively misinterpreting underlying financials at worst. Short interest in the company has been floating around 50% - this is likely aiding in the price drop, but those short sellers will quite literally have to eat their shorts if this company comes anywhere near even 50% of fair value. It is not an exaggeration to say that the cost of Kohl’s taking itself private at these levels would be less than the cost of going through the bankruptcy process, which makes the prospect of Kohl’s going out of business in any sort of near-term somewhat irrational. Investors have made hay over store closures when, in reality, management is trimming the fat with their remaining stores (over 1,100) nearly all profitable. Most Americans still live within 15 miles of a Kohl’s store. There has also been speculation that some investors are misinterpreting Kohl’s lease liabilities, which in fairness is contributing to bottom-line net debt picked up by typical reporting outlets to the tune of over $5 Billion. However, it strains credulity to treat such leases in the same manner as traditional debt obligations, as leases can be typically renegotiated with relative ease in the event that the company becomes distressed, and furthermore obscures the underlying equity that Kohl’s can still draw on in the form of actual real estate for collateral and potential refinancings. We at the fund continue to view Kohl’s as a strong buy and current pricing as an excellent entry point for any interested investors. Currently trading below $8.30, even at a conservative historical valuation we see Kohl’s worth north of $20 per share, and optimistically more than double that long-term with a current book value alone above $34. Who knows, there could even be a buyout or privatization down the road at these discounted levels. Please note that the Woodworth Contrarian Stock & Bond Fund, LP, of which the Millegan Brothers manage and are invested in, currently holds a position of KSS as of the publication date of this article. DEEP ROOTS. STUBBORN GROWTH. OREGON-BASED. Now is a great time to diversify your portfolio with an investment into an award-winning fund. Call us or visit our website to inquire on an investment today in the Woodworth Contrarian Fund as an accredited investor. (800) 651-1996 - info@woodworth.fund - www.Woodworth.Fund Best Value-Based Fund '22 | Best Contrarian Managers '22, ‘23, ‘24 | Best Opportunistic High Yield Hedge Fund ‘24 Contrarian Value-Based Hedge Fund of the Year for ‘22/23 & ‘23/’24 About the Managers: Brothers Drew Millegan and Quinn Millegan manage the Woodworth Contrarian Stock & Bond Fund, a hedge fund based in McMinnville, Oregon. They grew up in the finance world, and specialize in contrarian investment strategies in the US Public and Private markets. Something missing from your portfolio may be a diversification into the Woodworth Contrarian Fund for accredited investors. Now is a great time to diversify your portfolio with an investment into a multi-award-winning fund. An exposure to a value-based contrarian strategy is a unique opportunity for your long term capital that you’re seeking aggressive returns for. With eight years of the Woodworth Fund under management, the Millegan Brothers are trained stock-pickers and experienced venture capital investors with a proven track record. Give us a call today to discuss a liquid investment with independent administration and independently audited monthly statements and a personal relationship.
If overall market continues to week, the price will surely comes to fill gap below at 438- 443( regular trading session)
According to current price action, Gartley Harmonic Pattern is formed on Near. Currently price is on it's PRZ. Also Near has reclaimed range low after sweep. If Near successfully breaks it's previous high, then we may see Near exploding upto Mid range & Range High targets easily.
Is the recent decline an opportunity for massive upward potential? ? ARM stock holds strong long-term potential, as evident from past price movements. Recent quarterly data suggests the stock has been oversold, creating a possible setup for a rebound. To regain momentum, the stock needs to maintain key support between the 86 and 95 range.
? I know I haven’t been posting our usual videos lately, but along with the daily morning update, here’s a trade breakdown of what’s been happening in the world of Bitcoin! ??? At this point, we should be 2 for 2—both setups came to fruition. However, in my honest opinion, neither gave us that clear-as-day confirmation. If you went for the riskier approach and jumped in without confirmation, congrats! ?? But let’s be real—that’s a dangerous game. ? ? Keep your eyes peeled for tomorrow morning’s Wednesday update! We all know BTC loves Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Sundays—so let’s see if we’re in for a treat this Wednesday! ??